2024 M. NCAA Previews: Does Texas Have Some Early Heat Magic In Store In 800 Free Relay?

2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 27-30, 2024
• IUPUI Natatorium, Indianapolis, Indiana
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MEN’S 800 FREE RELAY

• U.S. Open Record: 6:03.42 – Texas (Hobson, Carrozza, Larson, C. Foster) – 2023
• American Record: 6:03.42 – Texas (Hobson, Carrozza, Larson, C. Foster) – 2023
• NCAA Record: 6:03.42 – Texas (Hobson, Carrozza, Larson, C. Foster) – 2023
• 2023 NCAA Champion: Texas (Hobson, Carrozza, Larson, C. Foster), 6:03.42

Texas has won the last four NCAA titles in the men’s 800 free fairly comfortably, setting new U.S. Open, American and NCAA Records in 2019, 2022 and 2023.

The team’s bevy of key losses this season includes half of last year’s winning quartet, but still intact is the front half of that relay that was led by Luke Hobson, who joined the sub-1:30 club in the 200 free on the opening leg.

Coby Carrozza split 1:30.50 swimming second, and with those two still in action, the Longhorns cannot be discounted from the possibility of a five-peat.

However, there is no shortage of challengers.

Arizona State was the runner-up last year and leads the national rankings this season. Florida and Georgia are close behind after a razor-thin battle at SECs, and Cal lurks down in 7th on the psych sheets—putting them in Lane 1 of the fastest heat—but will be dangerous given their Pac-12 lineup was missing their top two pieces.

LONGHORN STREAK IN JEOPARDY, BUT THERE’S HOPE

Despite losing Carson Foster and Peter Larson, Texas is far from dead in the 800 free relay this year.

Nate Germonprez (photo: Jack Spitser)

One interesting thing about this relay will be the Longhorns racing in the second-to-last heat due to their entry time of 6:11.66, which has them seeded 11th. That time was done at the Texas Invitational in November, with Carrozza and Hobson joined by the freshman duo of Nate Germonprez and Will Modglin.

Last month at Big 12s, Texas clocked 6:13.12 with Hobson out of the field and sophomores Manning Haskal and Alec Enyeart chipping in.

That swim included a 1:31.86 anchor from Germonprez, which gives them three legs they’d be comfortable going up against anyone. Hobson won the 200 free title last year and is tied for #4 all-time in the event, and Carrozza’s ability to split in the 1:30s is something not many swimmers in the field can say.

It remains to be seen who is the fourth leg—Modglin is likely more valuable on the sprint free relays, so it will either be Haskal (1:33.74 relay split) or Camden Taylor (1:33.90 flat start).

Even if we conservatively average out Hobson and Carrozza to 1:30.5, Germonprez at 1:31.5 and the fourth leg at 1:33.5, Texas checks out at 6:06, which is right where the top teams are this season.

They’ll set the benchmark in Heat 2, and the other teams will know exactly what time is required to overtake them in Heat 3.

PAC-12 POWERHOUSES

In last year’s 800 free relay, there was an epic battle for the runner-up spot behind Texas, with five teams separated by just over half a second at the final exchange.

Leon Marchand (photo: Jack Spitser)

That five-way race turned into a head-to-head battle between stars on the two teams with realistic hopes of the overall title, as Arizona State’s Leon Marchand dropped the fastest split in history (1:28.42) to lead the Sun Devils to 2nd place over Cal’s Destin Lasco, who was blistering in his own right at 1:29.53.

This season, the two teams figure to be battling for the championship banner once again, and it could be the case for the win in the 800 free relay.

At first glance, the race shouldn’t be much of a contest. ASU leads the seasonal rankings with a time of 6:06.14, while Cal sits a distant 7th at 6:10.53, both times done from Pac-12s.

Even though we know the Golden Bears were missing some key players at the conference championships, Arizona State still beat them last year at NCAAs by more than a second, and only lost one member of that relay compared to Cal’s two.

So…does that mean the Sun Devils have a decided upper hand on the Bears? Not so fast.

Cal got a pair of 1:31 splits at the conference championships, with Robin Hanson leading off in a best time of 1:31.95 and Trent Frandson anchoring in 1:31.99.

Doing some selective math, using the lead-off swimmer’s flat-start time from this season, two relay splits from Pac-12s (lead-off for Hanson) and the anchors delivered by Marchand and Lasco last year at NCAAs, we get this result:

So while ASU still comes out on top, this race figures to be closer than the psych sheets indicate. The Bears could also end up using Jack Alexy, who owns a PB of 1:32.74 set in January.

SEC SHOWDOWN – FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE

The addition of Scotty Buff gives Florida the luxury of leaving Josh Liendo off the 200 medley relay and slotting him in on the 800 free relay in place of the graduated Alfonso Mestre.

At SECs, the quartet of Macguire McDuff, Liendo, Julian Smith and Jake Mitchell pulled out an epic victory over Georgia, setting a meet record of 6:06.36 to edge out the Bulldog squad of Tomas Koski, Jake Magahey, Zach Hils and Bradley Dunham.

2024 SEC Splits

McGuire McDuff (photo: Jack Spitser)

Relative to the 2023 NCAA results, where Florida was 5th in 6:08.79, McDuff and Smith were roughly the same at SECs and Mitchell was nearly a second faster. With Liendo already faster than Mestre by two seconds, and McDuff having set a PB of 1:30.64 in the individual final at SECs, the Gators could be under the 6:05 barrier.

Georgia’s relay has been revived with the emergence of freshman Tomas Koski, as they were a distant 11th last year in 6:12.69, and were nearly six seconds faster at SECs despite only slotting in one new member.

Magahey and Dunham were significantly faster at SECs than NCAAs last year, and Hils has consistently been 1:32. If they’re able to hold their SEC form through to NCAAs—the team was 6:14 at the 2023 SECs, so they got faster from conference to nationals—they’ll be among the top teams. The high end probably isn’t there to move into the top two or three, but they’re not far off.

CARDINAL(S) HEAD UP REMAINING CONTENDERS

Behind ASU, Florida and Georgia, Louisville is the only other team that has broken 6:10 this season, with Stanford, NC State and Indiana not far behind (along with previously mentioned Cal).

2023-24 NCAA Rankings, Men’s 800 Free Relay

1. Arizona State, 6:06.14 – 2024 Pac-12s
2. Florida, 6:06.36 – 2024 SECs
3. Georgia, 6:06.79 – 2024 SECs
4. Louisville, 6:09.87 – 2024 ACCs
5. Stanford, 6:10.08 – 2024 Pac-12s
6. NC State, 6:10.22 – 2024 ACCs
7. Cal, 6:10.53 – 2024 Pac-12s
8. Indiana, 6:10.86 – 2024 Big Tens
9. Auburn, 6:11.03 – 2024 SECs
10. Alabama, 6:11.27 – 2024 SECs

Not unlike the race the Gators and Bulldogs had at SECs, the Cardinals raced neck and neck with the Wolfpack at ACCs, pulling out the win by 35 one-hundredths. Neither team had any sub-1:32 splits, nor do they have any 1:31s from a flat start this season, but they’re solid across the board.

2024 ACC Splits

There is room for Louisville to improve, with Guy Brooks having set a PB of 1:32.00 at the Notre Dame Last Chance Meet earlier this month, while Denis Loktev has also been faster than his relay split individually this season (1:32.92).

NC State’s fastest swimmer this season is Daniel Diehl, who was only slightly faster individually (1:32.72) than he was on the ACC lead-off.

Kacper Stokowski is an option to slot in on the relay as the team’s only other sub-1:33 swimmer this season (1:32.91), and they could also get a shot in the arm if they opted to use Luke Miller, who has been 1:31 multiple times but has taken a more sprint-oriented approach this season. Miller raced on the other four relays at ACCs, and that seems to be the direction they’re going in here.

Henry McFadden (photo: Jack Spitser)

At Pac-12s, Stanford topped the pared-down Cal team with a blistering anchor leg from freshman Henry McFadden, who spearheads the Cardinal after he came home in 1:30.87 in his first conference championship swim.

Stanford also had Andrei Minakov split 1:33.88 on that relay, and he’s been more than two seconds faster from a flat start. A healthy Minakov could push this team into the 6:08s.

Indiana won the Big Ten title in 6:10.86 behind three 1:32s from Rafael Miroslaw, Tomer Frankel and Kai van Westering, and a 1:33.2 anchor from Brendan Burns.

Miroslaw has been 1:31.8 from a flat start, and Burns (1:31.78) and Frankel (1:32.06) had quicker splits at NCAAs last season, so the Hoosiers are right in the thick of things.

Auburn is another team solid across the board with three 1:32s at SECs leading them to 6:11.03, with lead-off swimmer Michael Bonson clocking 1:32.77 on the opening leg at last year’s NCAAs.

Alabama should set a hectic pace over the front half with Charlie Hawke and Kaique Alves, but doesn’t have the depth to challenge the 6:10 marker.

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