2018 U.S. Nationals Preview: Adrian’s Trials Streak At Risk In 100 FR

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2018 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

SIMPLIFIED SELECTION CRITERIA – 100/200 FREES

  • Top 4 to 2018 Pan Pacific Championships
  • Top 2-6 juniors to 2018 Junior Pan Pacs
  • Top 4-6 (from Nationals + Pan Pacs) to 2019 World Championships
  • 4-6 more to 2019 World University Games
  • 2+ more to 2019 Pan American Games

Since placing 4th at the 2008 Olympic Trials in Omaha at the age of 19, Nathan Adrian has gone undefeated at U.S. selection meets in the 100 freestyle.

The 29-year-old Cal post-grad has won seven consecutive Trials events, dating back to the 2009 World Championship Trials in Indianapolis. Over the course of these nine years he’s only finished the season as the fastest American on five occasions, but his knack for getting his hand on the wall on U.S. soil is uncanny. That’s nothing against his ability to compete when the lights shine brightest at international competitions, as he’s had plenty of success in winning two Olympic, two World Championship and two Pan Pacific medals individually in this event alone (including an Olympic gold in 2012, and gold at the 2010 Pan Pacs). Will he manage to keep this domestic streak alive?

Nathan Adrian swimming photograph Mike Lewis

Nathan Adrian, Chula Vista, California. Nathan for the cover of SwimSwam Magazine Hero edition. This image was shot in the studio at the Olympic training center outside of San Diego. (photo: Mike Lewis)

Last summer at World Trials, Adrian used his new back-half strategy to mow down the field and out-touch Caeleb Dressel by .01, 47.96 to 47.97, keeping his Trials streak alive by the thinnest of margins. Heading into the meet last year, he was the fastest American during the season at 48.18. This year, while he does the lead the nation once again, his season-best is four tenths slower at 48.58.

Rather than a dip in form, I believe Adrian has the long game as more of a focus this year. The last two summers he’s only seen marginal improvements from his in-season times to his performances at the Olympics and World Championships (still managing to medal at both), but this year he looks to have sacrificed a bit of that mid-season speed with the end goal being Pan Pacs (and ultimately 2020). Last month, he saw his Pro Swim Series streak in the event fall at the hands of Dressel, and there’s a good chance we’ll see his Trials streak go by the wayside as well.

Caeleb Dressel and Nathan Adrian 1, 2 in the 50 free 2017 World Championships Budapest, Hungary (photo: Mike Lewis)

Coming off his spectacular 40.00 yards swim at the 2017 NCAAs, Dressel continued his jaw-dropping year at the World Championships. He broke the super-suited American Record leading off the men’s 400 free relay in 47.26, and then won his first individual World title by lowering it again in 47.17 (also leading off the mixed free relay in 47.22). He’s been three tenths faster in-season this year than he was before he went 47.97 at the 2017 Trials, and with this event being on the first day of competition, you know he’ll want to pop off a good one. Somewhere around 47.6 – 47.8 feels right.

Barring an upset, those will be the top-2. They’ve been the fastest Americans each of the past three years, and are the only swimmers in the field who have cracked the 48-second barrier (doing so a combined 20 times). Behind them, there will be an absolute dogfight for the next two spots that guarantee a roster spot in Tokyo.

Last year there were a few surprises in this event. Zach Apple was our darkhorse pick at World Trials, and he blew up with a 48.14 prelim swim and a 4th place finish in the final. Townley Haas was nowhere on anyone’s radar, coming in with a PB of 49.55 from the 2014 Junior Pan Pacs, but he stunned everyone with a 3rd place finish in 48.20. He then split 47 three times in Budapest on relays, going as fast as 47.24, and after what he did at NCAAs there’s no doubting him.

Both Apple and Haas set personal bests in yards this year (100 and 200), and have been faster in-season than they were last. While this field is incredibly stacked, they’re probably favorites to remain 3rd and 4th this year.

The other two who qualified for the 400 free relay in Budapest by virtue of finishing top-6 at Trials were Blake Pieroni and Michael Chadwick.

Pieroni was 6th in Indianapolis, but swam his way onto the finals relay with a personal best 48.40 lead-off in the prelims. There he split 48.09, and also led off the prelim mixed free relay in a new PB of 48.23. After a successful meet in Hungary, the 22-year-old had a dynamite senior year with Indiana, becoming the first swimmer ever sub-1:30 in the 200 free and also recording a lifetime best 41.16 in the 100. Also 6th at the 2016 Olympic Trials, this could be his time to assert himself in the top-4.

Chadwick had a pretty under the radar 40.95 100 free behind Dressel at the 2017 NCAAs, a time that makes him the 2nd fastest American of all-time, and followed up with a strong showing at World Trials in a PB of 48.48. He’s the fastest American this year not named Adrian, Dressel or Jack Conger (who hasn’t entered the event in order to swim the 200 fly), so look for another solid showing out of him.

Then there’s the dynamic Wolfpack duo in Ryan Held and Justin Ress.

After being apart of the gold medal winning 400 free relay at the Rio Games, Held narrowly missed the Worlds team with a 7th place finish last summer in Indy. However, he rebounded well by winning gold individually at the World University Games and finished off his college career with a pair of relay national titles and all-time bests in the 50 and 100 free. He’ll need to be right on (or better than) his 2016 best of 48.26 to get into the top-4.

Justin Ress 2017 World Championships Budapest, Hungary (photo: Mike Lewis)

Ress really broke out last summer by winning the 50 back at Trials, and showed a glimpse of his freestyle potential with a 10th place finish in 49.15. He was dynamite at NCAAs, finishing 3rd individually in the 100 and throwing down some bonkers relay legs (40.3, 40.6, 40.8). Since then he’s been 49.2 or better three times in the big pool, lowering his best by .01 earlier this month in Columbus, and a 48-low isn’t out of the question.

While those line up as the most probable eight finalists, there are several others in the mix to steal one of their spots.

  • Three-time Olympic gold medalist Ryan Murphy was an A-finalist last year with a time of 48.88, and recorded his fastets ever in-season swim earlier this year in Atlanta (49.55).
  • Conor Dwyer was underwhelming last year in 49.40, but has already been faster this year with a 49.38 at LA Invite earlier in July.
  • In his junior year with Alabama, Robert Howard swam the seven fastest yards swims of his career to ultimately place 10th in 41.81 at NCAAs. After winning the U.S. Open last summer in 49.04, he’s already been 49.33 this season, ranking him 6th among Americans who are entered here.
  • After going 48.8 in 2015, Maxime Rooney has consistently been 49-low each of the past two summers.
  • Michael Jensen was 49.51 at the Speedo Grand Challenge in May, less than three tenths off his lifetime best from last year.
  • Tate Jackson busted out a 48.99 at the U.S. Open last summer and saw big drops throughout the college season.
  • The infamous Dean Farris finished just 32nd last year in 50.05, but has already been under 50 seconds four times this year including a 49.44 which ranks him 10th in the country if we exclude Conger.
  • Other names to keep an eye on: Daniel KruegerKyle DecourseyJosh FleagleBowen Becker, and backstrokers Jacob Pebley and Matt Grevers. Youngster Matthew Willenbring is also in the mix after serving his doping suspension that was deemed accidental.

TOP-12 PICKS

Place Swimmer Lifetime-best Season-best
1 Caeleb Dressel 47.17 48.96
2 Nathan Adrian 47.52 48.58
3 Townley Haas 48.20 49.71
4 Zach Apple 48.14 49.41
5 Blake Pieroni 48.23 49.04
6 Ryan Held 48.26 49.35
7 Justin Ress 49.14 49.14
8 Michael Chadwick 48.48 49.01
9 Ryan Murphy 48.88 49.55
10 Conor Dwyer 48.94 49.38
11 Robert Howard 49.04 49.33
12 Tate Jackson 48.99 49.64

Darkhorse: Jacob Molacek was a stalwart at NCAAs with multiple 41-low splits on the NC State relays, and finished 5th individually with a lifetime best 41.55. If he can make a similar drop in LC, sub-49 isn’t out of the question.

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Socaladvracer

I feel like Michael Andrew is ready to pop a 100 free after dropping a second in his 100 fly earlier this year, that would put him in 48 high territory. At least good enough for a 2nd swim.

Rafael

He went 21,7 and 50 at the same meet.. so Kind of hard for that to happen

Caeleb Dressel Will Win 9 Gold Medals in Tokyo

He went 51.8 100 fly

Rafael

50 (seconds) on the 100 free..

swimfan01

It’s the first event of the meet. He would be really fresh. Could happen.

SayItAintSo

51.03….. people forget

pvdh

Andrew sound like James Magnussen now….on his interview on USA Swimming… said Caeleb should be worried lmao

Wowow

PVDH… What interview did he say this in? I’m intrested.

pvdh
ERVINFORTHEWIN

Yes he should be really worried about his 100 free times ….BIG LOL

Tammy Touchpad Error

It sounds like he is talking to Nathan. He knows what Dressel is up to and respects him too much to talk to him like that.

bobo gigi

Michael Andrew has recenty posted a video about his trip to Barcelona.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eQG-3-_vBc

bobo gigi

And another one about Monaco.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHx1XcbhQAo

bobo gigi

And MA fans will be thrilled to learn that he’s the subject of the last “off the blocks” video by USA swimming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prFSfln_6xY

beachbumjason

You guys really have to lay off bobo. Always giving him dislikes when there is nothing to dislike. Like here he is being nice and posting videos for you to watch and you guys dislike it? Get a life.

ERVINFORTHEWIN

Trolls can’t be anything else but trolls unfortunately – they poison many websites and yutube nowadays . Sad to see how much they are hanging on being negative ( they actually dont have lives apparently )

Gogo Bibi

I have a conspiracy that Bobo wrote a script to downvote himself and lets everyone think that someone else wrote it. People see the downvotes and feel sorry for him and give him upvotes making him the ultimate troll

pvdh

i dont think its actual users downvoting him. he gets dowvotes way to quickly. someone here with a grudge is spamming him with a bot

Steve Nolan

I’m just sort of bummed I didn’t think of it.

That MULTIPLE random people feel the need to come to his defense from THE HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE DOWNVOTES! is one of my new favorite things about this site.

sven

I don’t understand comments like this. Downvotes are totally irrelevant. Comments are not auto-pruned based on up/down votes, and there’s no swimswam account feature to show lifetime up/down votes*, so why do people care? I generally ignore the up/down system on this site, but I ALWAYS downvote comments crying about downvotes.

*oh God, can you imagine the awful popularity contest and hurt feelings that would ensue if there was a score attached to swimswam accounts? Please, Braden and co., do not ever let that happen.

E Gamble

Let me go change my pick em. I think Michael is gonna do it after watching this video This was well done.

Nswim

Didn’t Dressel and Adrian go 1-2 in the 100 at worlds? I don’t think Adrian even made the final in the 50

bobo gigi

I didn’t realize until I’ve read your article that Nathan Adrian was unbeaten in the 100 free at US nationals since 2009 with 9 wins in a row. That’s amazing. That guy is really a sprint legend.

DRESSEL IS GOD

lol you should make a new account (email atleast, you could keep the name) with the dislike bot

Cheatin Vlad

I highly doubt it’s a bot otherwise we would see high numbers consistently.

Caleb

uh, we do

Bobo Gigi

This is a test to see if this gets down voted. I am not the real Bobo Gigi and I will never again use this handle.

-Tammy Touchpad Error

Zanna

So far so good, lol

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James is currently a university swimmer for the Laurentian Voyageurs in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. He is studying economics. Along with swimming, he also loves hockey. He's in his 14th season as a competitive swimmer. Best Times - SCM (LCM) 50 FR - 24.56 (25.12) 100 FR - 53.58 (56.70) 200 FR - 1:56.07 (2:04.29) 1500 …

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