What Would The 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Look Like If It Was Named Today?

We now know that 408 men and 335 women have qualified for the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials, with just over four months left inside the qualifying period before the lights shine bright at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in June.

Psych sheets, entry times, rankings…these things mean very little when it comes to earning a spot on the U.S. Olympic team. The swimmers have to perform when the pressure is on.

But still, if we were to look at how the U.S. team would be comprised if it were to simply be picked based on rankings inside the qualifying period, how does that shake out?

As we stand here in mid-January, 21 women and 26 men are in position to qualify for the team based on where they rank in the country since Nov. 30, 2022.

Below, find a full list of each event with the swimmers who are currently inside a qualifying spot.

WOMEN

MEN

On the women’s side, Katie Ledecky unsurprisingly leads all swimmers with four individual events in which she’s projected to qualify in, all of which she’s won at least one Olympic gold medal in and is the defending champion in two: 200, 400, 800 and 1500 free.

Kate Douglass and Regan Smith are both in position to qualify in three individual events, while Gretchen Walsh has two individual and an additional relay event on her list.

Abbey Weitzeil, Katie Grimes, Lilly King and Alex Walsh are also ranked either first or second in two events.

WOMEN’S ROSTER (21)

With so many doubles, triples and Ledecky’s quad, the women’s theoretical roster doesn’t approach the maximum 26-member squad, but the men’s does.

The men’s roster hits the number right at 26, as Carson Foster is the only swimmer in position to qualify in three individual events (along with one relay).

Ryan Held, Jack Alexy, Bobby Finke, Ryan Murphy, Kieran Smith and Shaine Casas are all in position to qualify in two individual events, but the rest of the team is looking at one (Destin Lasco has one individual and one relay).

MEN’S ROSTER (26)

Since it’s the only major international event to have occurred inside the qualifying period thus far, this theoretical U.S. Olympic team looks very similar to the one that was sent to the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka.

The key differences:

• Dakota Luther moves into a spot in the women’s 200 fly over Lindsay Looney.
• Anna Peplowski theoretically gets bumped from her spot in the women’s 800 free relay, which she was elevated to for the Fukuoka World Championships after Katie Ledecky withdrew from the individual 200 free. If the same situation were to occur for the Olympics, Peplowski would move into a roster spot as the seventh-fastest swimmer as we currently stand.
• Carson Foster and Brooks Curry move into 800 free relay spots over Henry McFadden and Baylor Nelson.
• Macguire McDuff overtakes Justin Ress—who was also named to the Worlds team in the non-Olympic 50 back—for the last spot in the men’s 400 free relay.
• Jake Foster earns a spot in the men’s 200 breast over Josh Matheny, who makes it in the 100 breast.
• Shaine Casas picks up a spot in the men’s 100 fly over Thomas Heilman, who makes it in the 200 fly.

The glaring name missing from this theoretical roster is Caeleb Dressel, the defending Olympic champion in the men’s 50 free, 100 free and 100 fly.

Dressel, as we know, took an extended break out of the pool beginning in the summer of 2022 and only got back into action last May.

Dressel currently ranks fifth in the U.S. inside the qualifying period in the 100 fly (51.31), 10th in the 50 free (21.99), and 20th in the 100 free (48.85).

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Below, find a list of the swimmers one spot outside of a qualifying spot in the rankings. That’s third in an individual event and seventh in a relay event (100/200 free).

If the swimmer that is next up is already on the theoretical roster in a different event, we’ve listed the next-fastest swimmer with their ranking in brackets.

Not listed is those who are next up in the individual 100 and 200 free, which are, respectively, Gretchen Walsh and Bella Sims for the women, and Destin Lasco and Carson Foster for the men.

• Women’s 50 free – Catie Deloof (6th)
• Women’s 400 free – Paige Madden (5th)
• Women’s 800 free – Kensey McMahon (6th)*
• Women’s 1500 free – Kensey McMahon*
• Women’s 100 back – Claire Curzan
• Women’s 200 back – Claire Curzan
• Women’s 100 breast – Kaitlyn Dobler
• Women’s 200 breast – Ella Nelson
• Women’s 100 fly – Claire Curzan (5th)
• Women’s 200 fly – Hali Flickinger**
• Women’s 200 IM – Leah Hayes (5th)
• Women’s 400 IM – Leah Hayes (4th)
• Women’s 400 free relay – Simone Manuel
• Women’s 800 free relay – Anna Peplowski

*McMahon said she was putting swimming “on hold” in September 2023.
**Flickinger has not competed since the 2023 U.S. Nationals.

• Men’s 50 free – Michael Andrew
• Men’s 400 free – Aaron Shackell (4th)
• Men’s 800 free – Will Gallant (4th)
• Men’s 1500 free – Michael Brinegar
• Men’s 100 back – Justin Ress
• Men’s 200 back – Jack Aikins
• Men’s 100 breast – Noah Nichols
• Men’s 200 breast – Will Licon (5th)
• Men’s 100 fly – Aiden Hayes (4th)
• Men’s 200 fly – Zach Harting
• Men’s 200 IM – Maximus Williamson (4th)
• Men’s 400 IM – Jay Litherland (4th)
• Men’s 400 free relay – Justin Ress
• Men’s 800 free relay – Baylor Nelson

You can find the full list of Olympic Trials qualifiers and domestic rankings in the qualifying period here.