The Relay Breakdown: Women’s 4x200m Freestyle

by Sam Blacker 32

June 04th, 2025 National, News

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

WOMEN’S 200 Freestyle – Final

Results:

  1. Claire Weinstein (SAND) – 1:54.92
  2. Katie Ledecky (GSC) – 1:55.26
  3. Torri Huske (AAC) – 1:55.71
  4. Anna Peplowski (ISC)/Erin Gemmell (TXLA) – 1:55.82
  5. Bella Sims (SAND) – 1:57.18
  6. Simone Manuel (TXLA) – 1:57.44
  7. Isabel Ivey (GSC) – 1:58.05

Five women broke 1:56 tonight, as Claire Weinstein out-touched Katie Ledecky for the second time in three years. Torri Huske was out fast through 150, and managed to set a huge best time as she skipped the 1:56s entirely.

With Ariarne Titmus sitting out Worlds this season and Mollie O’Callaghan nursing a slight knee injury, they could well be the favourites to reclaim their World crown from 2022.

The top four from tonight will be guaranteed a spot, whilst fifth and sixth will need to wait to see how the team shapes up elsewhere.

So, what does all this mean for Team USA’s 4×200 free relay this summer?

The Past Is History, the Future Is a Mystery?

Last year’s Trials were only the third-fastest ever – the first one we’ve seen so far that was not the fastest. The 200 free add-ups in 2016 and 2023 were faster, although their fastest two relay times have come in 2021 and 2024.

Here was what the gaps looked like between the add-up from the top four at Nationals and the relay times swum later that summer since 2000.

We love to predict how relays will perform before a major summer meet. There are almost no other real opportunities for a top-tier long course relay team to compete, so there’s limited data to go off.

Based on the U.S. Nationals results we’ve built a rough model to predict the final time for the American 4×100 free relay this summer. To calculate this we’ve considered the National Championship results (top four), previous history of the drops from Nationals to the relay in the summer, and the raw times themselves.

The past four years look something like this:

Year Trials Add-up Predicted Time Range (90% confidence band*) Range (50% confidence band) Actual Relay Time
2021 7:45.86 7:43.66 7:42.53 – 7:44.87 7:43.14 – 7:44.12 7:40.73
2022 7:47.20 7:44.68 7:43.61 – 7:45.91 7:44.18- 7:45.09 7:41.45
2023 7:42.85 7:41.46 7:39.80 – 7:42.60 7:41.00 – 7:42.11 7:41.38
2024 7:44.51 7:42.67 7:41.36 – 7:43.87 7:42.15 – 7:43.20 7:40.86

*This defines the upper and lower limits of a range in which we would be 90% sure that the result would fall – if this was raced 100 times, in 90 of those we’d expect a time in this range.

First things first, the model does have some limitations. It is only intended as a ballpark figure and the 90% and 50% confidence bands are too confident, especially for the last few years where the actual drops have ranged anywhere from 0.88 seconds to 2.92 seconds.

Overall though, we’re not looking for this to give us an absolute relay time to hold ourselves to for the summer – just a range which we (or you) can debate. Without further ado, here are all the numbers from this year’s trials you need to worry about.

The Numbers

Top 4
1 Claire Weinstein – 1:54.92
2 Katie Ledecky – 1:55.26
3 Torri Huske – 1:55.71
4 Anna Peplowski/Erin Gemmell – 1:55.82
Total 7:41.71
Predicted time 7:40.61
Range (90% confidence band) 7:38.68 – 7:41.63
Range (50% confidence band) 7:40.29 – 7:41.33

 

Fastest three flat-start times of the top-six:

Place Swimmer #1 #2 #3
1 Claire Weinstein 1:54.88 1:54.92 1:54.93
2 Katie Ledecky 1:53.73 1:54.40 1:54.43
3 Torri Huske 1:55.71 1:57.03 1:57.71
4 Erin Gemmell 1:55.82 1:55.97 1:56.06
4 Anna Peplowski 1:55.82 1:56.39 1:56.99
6 Bella Sims 1:55.45 1:56.00 1:56.08

 

Fastest senior international three relay splits of the top six:

Place Swimmer #1 #2 #3
1 Claire Weinstein
2 Katie Ledecky 1:53.67 1:53.74 1:53.76
3 Torri Huske
4 Erin Gemmell 1:55.40 1:55.65 1:56.77
4 Anna Peplowski 1:56.88
6 Bella Sims 1:54.60 1:54.64 1:55.91

 

Fastest flat-start add-up:

Place Swimmer Time
1 Katie Ledecky 1:53.73
2 Claire Weinstein 1:54.88
3 Bella Sims 1:55.45
4 Torri Huske 1:55.71
Add-up 7:39.77

 

Fastest flat start + relay split add-up:

Place Swimmer Time
1 Claire Weinstein 1:54.88
2 Katie Ledecky 1:53.67
3 Bella Sims 1:54.60
4 Erin Gemmell 1:55.40
Total Add-up 7:38.55

Katie Ledecky is unlikely to be at 1:53 flat start pace, and Bella Sims was a little off her 1:55-mid best from 2022, so these are not wholly representative. However, the relays have seemed to step up big over the last Olympic quad, so potentially a Sub-7:40 is not out of the question

As a final look ahead, here are the U.S. Nationals/Trials to summer relay drops since 2000 based on location. The circles get darker as the year gets later, and any hollow circles indicate a negative drop – that is, an increase.

 

 

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18 hours ago

If Ledecky drops the 200 individually, Huske qualifies.
Huske doesn’t have any conflicts (except mixed MR after 200 finals).
If Huske drops it though, Gemmell and Peplowski tied…. does Gemmell get the individual spot by being faster in prelims, or is it a swim-off?

Curzan 2:04.4
19 hours ago

Strongly disagree that Ledecky “is unlikely to be at 1:53 pace”. She’s split 1:53 on relays before while showing much worse individual form than she is currently in.

Swimz
23 hours ago

Correction…Erin Gammel anchored 4 by 200 pan pac or some meet (not sure) in 1.54s

Troyy
Reply to  Swimz
23 hours ago

Was Junior Pan Pacs in 2022: 1:54.86

Chas
1 day ago

So Huske and Peplowski are the only ones still dropping time?

Boxall's Railing
1 day ago

Respect for the method and it’s an interesting topic, but when I keep reading in these analyses that so many of the actual relay times were outside of both the 50 and 90% confidence bands/ranges, this strongly suggests that the method needs tweaking.

Miss M
1 day ago

Very interested to see how the Aussie trials results compare next week.

Noah
1 day ago

What are they going to do with Huske? She definitely won’t swim prelims with her packed schedule, and will they trust someone who’s never raced 2 free internationally to go straight to finals?

Miss M
Reply to  Noah
1 day ago

Are you assuming she doesn’t swim the 200 free individually on the Tuesday?

If she swims it individually She’ll potentially have 3×200 international swims under her belt before the relay, and if she’s on, why not give her a pass straight to finals?

Hawaiian Reeves
Reply to  Noah
1 day ago

This might be Torri’s only chance to race a relay with Katie. I think she has extra motivation to perform well, and both of them are having excellent years. I think Torri is a better bet than anyone who would otherwise replace her.

Swimz
Reply to  Hawaiian Reeves
23 hours ago

” they (relay first 03 legs) set me up really well..I was not loosing..I m not gonna let them down.. the team USA down.”..

_ After anchoring the mixed medley relay to home with gold and WR by splitting 51.8.

This is how good , and determined she is..

Let her anchor all the relays..she will not let team USA down..

NornIron Swim
Reply to  Noah
1 day ago

She proved her relay credentials last year in Paris.

Hoodaaaat (not a hoo just a fan)
Reply to  Noah
1 day ago

She proved herself here. She’ll be swimming 2 free individually and on relay finals [unless something crazy happens]

Spieker Pool Lap Swimmer
1 day ago

The real question is will Relay Names Guy update his name?