As we get ready for the 2022-2023 NCAA season, we will be previewing the top-12 men’s and women’s Division I teams. The ranking is based on how the teams finished at the 2022 NCAA Championships.
Previews go up regularly, and you can keep track of all of them–and how the teams stack up against each other–with the table below. In case you don’t know how our ranking system works, we’ve got an explainer for that as well.
This index will update as we keep counting up to the #1 teams. After we’ve done previews for last year’s top 12, we’ll release our preseason rankings for the 2022-2023 season.
Grading Criteria
Three years ago, we unveiled a new, more data-based grading criteria based on ‘projected returning points’, a stat of our own making that involved a lot of manual calculations involving departing seniors, redshirts, freshmen, etc. We liked the objectiveness of that stat, but given that there’s still a lot of uncertainty for this year, we’re adopting a hybrid approach this year. The “stars” will rely heavily on what swimmers actually did last year, but we’ll also give credit to returning swimmers or freshmen who have times that would have scored last year.
Since we only profile the top 12 teams in this format, our grades are designed with that range in mind. In the grand scheme of college swimming and compared to all other college programs, top 12 NCAA programs would pretty much all grade well across the board. But in the interest of making these previews informative, our grading scale is tough – designed to show the tiers between the good stroke groups, the great ones, and the 2015 Texas fly group types.
- 5 star (★★★★★) – a rare, elite NCAA group projected to score 25+ points per event
- 4 star (★★★★) – a very, very good NCAA group projected to score 15-24 points per event
- 3 star (★★★) – a good NCAA group projected to score 5-14 points per event
- 2 star (★★) – a solid NCAA group projected to score 1-4 points per event
- 1 star (★) – an NCAA group that is projected to score no points per event, though that doesn’t mean it’s without potential scorers – they’ll just need to leapfrog some swimmers ahead of them to do it
We’ll grade each event discipline: sprint free (which we define to include all the relay-distance freestyle events, so 50, 100 and 200), distance free, IM, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly and diving. Use these grades as a jumping-off point for discussion, rather than a reason to be angry.
Women
Team | Sprint Free | Distance Free | Backstroke | Breaststroke | Butterfly | IM | Diving | Relays | Total Stars |
#1 Virginia Cavaliers | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★ | ★★★★★ | 33/40 |
#2 Texas Longhorns | ★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | 28/40 |
#3 Stanford Cardinal | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★★★★ | 28/40 |
#4 Alabama Crimson Tide | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★ | ★★★★ | 23/40 |
#5 NC State Wolfpack | ★★★★ | ★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★★★ | 22/40 |
#6 Louisville Cardinals | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★★★ | 22/40 |
#7 Michigan Wolverines | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★★ | 15/40 |
#8 California Golden Bears | ★ | ★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★★ | 16/40 |
#9 Ohio State Buckeyes | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | 22/40 |
#10 Tennessee Volunteers | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★ | ★★★ | 24/40 |
#11 Indiana Hoosiers | ★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★ | ★★★★ | ★ | 16/40 |
#12 Kentucky Wildcats | ★ | ★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★ | 16/40 |
Men
Team | Sprint Free | Distance Free | Backstroke | Breaststroke | Butterfly | IM | Diving | Relays | Total Stars |
#1 Cal Golden Bears | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★ | ★★★★★ | 30/40 |
#2 Texas Longhorns | ★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | 29/40 |
#3 Florida Gators | ★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★ | ★★½ | ★★★★ | ★★½ | ★★★ | ★★★★★ | 27/40 |
#4 NC State Wolfpack | ★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★★★★ | 25/40 |
#5 Indiana Hoosiers | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | 25/40 |
#6 Arizona State Sun Devils | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★★½ | ★★★½ | ★★★★★ | ★ | ★★★★ | 25/40 |
#7 Stanford Cardinal | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★★★ | 21/40 |
#8 Georgia Bulldogs | ★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★★ | 20/40 |
#9 Ohio State Buckeyes | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★ | ★★ | ★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | 20/40 |
#10 Virginia Cavaliers | ★★★★ | ★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | ★ | ★ | ★★★★ | 17/40 |
#11 Virginia Tech Hokies | ★★★ | ★ | ★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★★★ | ★ | ★★ | 18/40 |
#12 Louisville Cardinals | ★★★ | ★ | ★ | ★★ | ★ | ★ | ★ | ★★★ | 13/40 |
When will NC State men come out!!!!!
One tweak I suggest for grading: since relays are double points and there are five of them (as opposed to 2-3 events for the other categories), they should be out of at least 10 stars, for a more accurate representation of a program’s scoring potential.
That dramatically overestimates the impact of relays at the NCAA Championships. I think there is a common belief that because relays are worth double points, they have double impact, but because each school can only have one of them, in general relays have relatively limited variation between teams.
An example: last year, Arizona State scored 126 relay points. Cal scored 167 relay points. That’s a gap of 41 points. The total gap between the two teams was 251.5 points. So the gap between the teams in individual scoring was 210.5 points.
Relay – 41
Individual – 210.5
The doubling of the relays is the only thing that really pushes them close to the significance of individual events.
sorry to be off topic, but USA Swimming SC World selection criteria is out. It looks like the team will be selected from National Team/LCM times again. https://www.usaswimming.org/docs/default-source/national-teamdocuments/selections/2022-fina-short-course-world-championships-athlete-selection-procedures.pdf
Also, looks like the US National Team will be announced tomorrow: https://www.usaswimming.org/docs/default-source/national-teamdocuments/selections/2022-2023-national-team-selection-criteria.pdf
HECK YA!!!
Not sure if this was already in the works or if my other comment nudged you towards this but I love it!
Its interesting to see how some lower ranks have more stars already.
Great stuff!
Thanks for this! Much needed.