SwimSwam’s 2024 Women’s NCAA Pre-Season Champion Picks

Braden Keith, James Sutherland, Anya Pelshaw, Robert Gibbs, YanYan Li, Riley Overend, Spencer Penland, and Reid Carlson contributed to this report. 

It’s the beginning of the 2023-24 NCAA season, which means that it’s time to make our early picks for who this season’s NCAA champions are going to be. Like last year, many of the SwimSwam writers debated who they think will win each event and listed them in the table below.

Olympics years are historically weird and often, they’re weird in a multitude of ways. It’s affected who’s going to be in the field at NCAAs, but that also means there’s more opportunity for surprise.

Even so, there’s a lot of uniformity in our women’s picks. The writers unanimously agreed that Gretchen Walsh will win three events (50 free/100 free/100 back), that Alex Walsh will win the 200 IM, and Bella Sims will take the 200 free.

Everyone agreed that Virginia will win the 200 free/400 free/200 medley/400 medley relays, and just one person picked a team other than them to win the 800 free relay–don’t worry, he’ll explain. There are three individual events that also have all but one person in agreement: the 100 fly, 200 fly, and 400 IM.

The uniformity could be attributed to the fact that it’s the beginning of the season and no one wants to make a pick that’s totally out of left field. But also, the women’s meet has one overarching favorite in the majority of the events. While their event schedules aren’t set, it’s unlikely that the Walsh sisters and Sims’ event schedules will overlap, and the three are safe bets in almost any event they swim.

The one exception to that is the 200 backstroke, which many writers expect to be on Sims’ schedule. A majority of the writers picked Sims to win, but it’s also one of the few events where there were three different swimmers picked as the winner. That makes sense, as  Phoebe Bacon and Isabelle Stadden return, and have been real threats to win (or repeat, in Bacon’s case–she won in 2021).

The other events that feature three different winner picks are the 1650 free, 100 breast, and 200 breast.

Without further ado, below are the ballots. Like last year, each writer picked a winner for each event, then picked a potential upset, which are compiled below.

In 2023, our SwimSwam picks went 8 for 17. 2.5 of our potential upsets were correct. The half point is for Braden, who correctly predicted Claire Curzan would win an event, but was wrong about the event; she won the 200 back, not the 200 fly.

Women’s Pre-Season Picks

Potential Upset (Women):

Anya: Bella Sims and whatever her third individual event is.

Braden: Abby Arens has been knocking on the door in the 100 fly for her entire career. If she can have a good morning swim, the upset is on the table in finals.

James: Kennedy Noble, 200 back. Not out of left field after what she did both as a freshman and then this summer, but this event is more wide open than most. Sims is my pick to win after what she did last year at the World Cup, but she’s still a bit of a wildcard and might not even swim this race. I don’t want to overvalue long course too much, but the only three swimmers who beat Noble in the event at U.S. Nationals aren’t racing in the NCAA this season.

YanYan: I made this upset one of my picks, but Jasmine Nocentini has so much talent—she’s my “Dare Rose pick” this time around. She’s been on my radar for a while now but she can do something big in a Virginia training environment if everything goes right this year for her.

Sophie: Kennedy Noble wins the 200 back. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given her improvement curve over the past year, but I think it still qualifies as an upset based on some of the other names that I expect to be in the field.

Riley: I picked two upsets here: Ella Nelson over Virginia teammate Alex Walsh in the 400 IM, and Florida’s 800 free relay over defending champion Virginia. Nelson’s on a steep upward trajectory in the event while Walsh appeared to have hit a plateau last season. Florida’s potential quartet of Bella Sims, Isabel Ivey, Ekaterina Nikonova, and Micayla Cronk own lifetime bests in the 200 free that add up to 6:49.73 — faster than Virginia’s winning time from last season, so it’s definitely possible.

Spencer: This would definitely be an upset. Keeping the word potential in mind, I’m going to say Michigan freshman Stephanie Balduccini in the 200 free. It’s a bold choice, I know, but it seems like virtually every year there is an international recruit who really breaks out in the NCAA. I really like the way Balduccini races and I think Matt Bowe and the new Michigan staff will really hone in on elements of her racing like turns, underwaters, and breakouts that can really pay dividends in yards swimming. I won’t be surprised at all if Balduccini really explodes at Big Tens and becomes a real factor in the 200 free at NCAAs.

Reid: Mona McSharry winning the 100 breast; Bella Sims winning the 200 back (not much of an upset, but not who I’ve picked to win).