SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers to pick the first women’s world record to fall from our list of relatively long-standing records:
RESULTS
Question: Which of these world records will fall first:
- Women’s 200 free – 1:52.98 – 49.6%
- Women’s 200 IM – 2:06.12 – 34.2%
- Women’s 400 IM – 4:26.36 – 11.1%
- Women’s 200 fly – 2:01.81 – 5.1%
With just two 2009 world records remaining on the women’s side (in long course at least), we had to broaden our poll a bit from the men’s side. We included both super-suited records (200 free and 200 fly), but also both IM records, which have stood untouched for some time now.
Almost half of voters picked the 200 free as the next to fall. That record (1:52.98 from Federica Pellegrini in 2009) has been rarely approached, although the wide field of 200 free talent around the world is a good reason to be bullish that someone can soon get closer than anyone has gotten in the past decade.
After Pellegrini set the record in 2009, Allison Schmitt came within seven-tenths of a second in 2012, without the aid of full-body suits. But in the eight years since, no one has bettered Schmitt’s textile best. In fact, Katie Ledecky‘s 1:53.73 at the 2016 Olympics is still the second-best textile swim of all-time, and in 2019, no one in the world broke 1:54.0.
Ledecky is still around, and went 1:54.5 at a relatively low-key in-season meet this March. China’s Yang Junxuan is rising with an in-season 1:54.9 of her own. Australia’s Ariarne Titmus was 1:54.2 last year, and there are still vets like Emma McKeon and Sarah Sjostrom in the mix.
About 24% picked the women’s 200 IM to fall. World record-holder Katinka Hosszu is still active, which should leave this record a chance to fall. But Hosszu hasn’t bested her 2:06.12 since 2015, and was just 2:07.0 last summer. Meanwhile only one other swimmer in history has broken 2:07 in textile: Great Britain’s Siobhan-Marie O’Connor.
Hosszu’s 4:26.36 in the 400 IM seems even tougher to match. Hosszu hasn’t been better than 4:29.3 since setting that record at the 2016 Olympics. And no other active swimmer has even been under 4:30, with the exception of Ye Shiwen, who blasted a 4:28.43 as a teenager, but has never come close to hitting that time in the years since.
The 200 fly had to be included in this poll just to see how many extreme optimists are out there. Turns out, it’s 5.1% of our voting population. Liu Zige went 2:01.81 in a super-suit. Since than, no one in the world has even been under 2:04. It’s arguably the most insane super-suited world record, and still appears to be the least likely to fall in the near future. Last season, the world’s best time was a 2:05.9 from Hali Flickinger, and she was the only one under 2:06. And no one has broken 2:05 since the 2016 Olympics.
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I’ve always been suspicious of that 200 fly record. Liu goes 2:04 at worlds, then a couple months later pops a 2:01 in friendly waters? If it is legit, that is too bad because China’s history of enabling doping makes it suspicious to me.
Worth noting, the Chinese National Games are usually the priority for Chinese athletes. They are extremely important in China. Liu would almost certainly have trained with them as her priority, so while her time at Worlds isn’t totally irrelevant, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Of course, with that increased importance comes the increased desire to win, therefore a heightened chance of doing anything to win. Alas, we’ll never know, but she wasn’t and Olympic Champ and WR holder aged 19 for no reason.
Chances are the time is bogus or she was juiced up by something undetected
On a lighter note I think Regan Smith will line up in that 4×200 freestyle relay for Tokyo
Most likely. Jiao Liuyang wasn’t far behind which people tend to forget. She did go 2.04.0 in London though so her supersuit 2.02 is a little more believable.
I’ve heard many people that agree with you but wouldn’t ever comment publicly. The thought is that the super suit was a sort of like a masking drug – everyone was going crazy so what’s one more, so let’s do something domestically that we can control and just point to the suit. I don’t know how I feel about that but I admit, it has crossed my mind.
All I will say is we forget about Taylor Ruck due to her inconsistency but to me she has the best package for pushing toward the 200 free barrier— her youth, her speed-endurance combo, long stroke, et al.
Rikako Ikee, Ariarne Titmus and Yang Junxuan are all the same age or younger and have also been 1.54.
I still think peak Ledecky is the only one who would go close, but I don’t think she could break it. Federica Pellegrini has shown in recent years that she is (still) as fast as todays girls on the clock. The mark is essentially the greatest female 200 freestyler ever (imo the greatest male or female), in her home country, in a super suit, at her peak. It’ll take something truly jaw-dropping to break that record.
also don’t forget Schmitt back in 2012. she was pretty darn close
200m freestyle WR is probably as safe as the men’s 400freestyle in that one peak swimmer gets awfully close and then the rest fall off the pace…. At her absolute best, Ledecky may go between1.53.10 and 1.53.40 although just breaking 1.54.00 is a big ask
If so, what a peak!!
I honestly think that if anyone is going to break the 200 fly WR it’s Regan Smith
That 200 fly is ridiculous. Liu Zige split the race 58.0/1.03.7 – Blows my mind.
The 200 free WR looks safer now than it did right after Rio when it was conceivable that Ledecky, Sjoestroem or Oleksiak all could have made a run at it at, or before, Tokyo.
As it stands, I voted 200 IM because I feel like the Iron Lady has a better chance of taking that down than anyone does at the 200 free in the next few years.
400 IM and, especially, the 200 fly are not going to be beat anytime soon.
Confession time: I was one of the people who voted for the 200 fly…because I misread the poll and thought it was asking about the record LEAST likely to fall in the near future. That record is NOT dropping any time soon.
The field seems to be getting further away from this record rather than closer.
it’s kinda like the men’s 200 free in that way. the records are aging very well
I think Titmus will break it in a 1:52.96