Yesterday, I scored out the D1 men’s pre selection psych sheet. This exercise gives us some idea of how teams stand heading into the meet, but there are some major flaws. Swimmer’s entry times are based on their best time this season. Many top swimmers haven’t fully rested yet, or have rested some, but not in every event they entered. It’s relatively easy to predict that these swimmers will be faster at the big meet. So I decided to try a projection that factors that in.
I grabbed the top collegiate time for every swimmer* that qualified for the meet individually and re scored. I left relays with their current seed times. Still no diving. This resulted in the biggest point jump for Texas who went from 4th with 322 to 1st with 398.5. NC State remained 2nd with 372.5. Indiana are 3rd with 337.5, Florida 4th with 323, and Cal are 5th with 319.
Before anyone jumps to conclusions and declares Cal are out of contention, it’s useful to discuss the flaws of this method. Mainly that it severely underrates top freshmen. For example, Cal’s Ryan Hoffer is scored at 0 points by his collegiate best times. However, if swims his lifetime best times in the 50 and 100 free (18.71, 41.23) suddenly he scores 31 points. Even a small improvement in his third event, the 100 fly, will bump him into the points there as well. Accounting for Hoffer’s ability bumps Cal to 350 points and he isn’t Cal’s only freshman with big potential. Sean Grieshop, Bryce Mefford, Daniel Carr, and Trenton Julian were all ranked in SwimSwam’s top 20 recruits in this year’s class and have qualified for the meet. Texas and Florida also have multiple freshmen at the meet that were highly ranked coming into the year.
In the same way that a scored psych sheet isn’t a straight forward prediction of the outcome, this isn’t either. It’s missing diving. Some swimmers are likely to go much faster or much slower than the times used here. This is one more data point that can help us set expectations.
In this version, Caeleb Dressel of Florida leads individuals with 60 points followed by Joseph Schooling of Texas with 52, Ryan Held of NC State with 49.5, Mark Szaranek of Florida with 49.5, Ian Finnerty of Indiana with 49 and Felix Auboeck of Michigan with 49. Individual scores are listed below the team scores.
Best Time Scores
| Best Time Points | Psych Points | Difference | |
| Texas | 398.5 | 322 | 76.5 |
| NC State | 372.5 | 385 | -12.5 |
| Indiana | 337.5 | 350.5 | -13 |
| Florida | 323 | 302 | 21 |
| California | 319 | 340.5 | -21.5 |
| Michigan | 207 | 218.5 | -11.5 |
| Southern Cali | 185 | 166 | 19 |
| Stanford | 147.5 | 129.5 | 18 |
| Louisville | 136 | 152 | -16 |
| South Carolina | 114 | 84 | 30 |
| Auburn | 109 | 144 | -35 |
| Alabama | 107 | 101 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 90 | 95 | -5 |
| Tennessee | 88 | 80.5 | 7.5 |
| Georgia | 79.5 | 49.5 | 30 |
| Texas A&M | 70.5 | 83 | -12.5 |
| Harvard | 60 | 77 | -17 |
| Ohio St | 59.5 | 75 | -15.5 |
| Florida St | 48 | 53 | -5 |
| Arizona | 47 | 60.5 | -13.5 |
| Missouri | 45 | 47 | -2 |
| Arizona St | 43 | 43 | 0 |
| Virginia | 31 | 46 | -15 |
| Grand Canyon University | 26 | 27 | -1 |
| Notre Dame | 25.5 | 37.5 | -12 |
| Cornell | 22 | 27 | -5 |
| Denver | 15 | 9 | 6 |
| Purdue | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Georgia Tech | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Missouri St. M | 6 | 12 | -6 |
| Pacific | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 4.5 | 8 | -3.5 |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 7 | -4 |
| Utah | 2 | 7 | -5 |
| Loyola University Maryland | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| Penn | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| UNLV M | 0 | 2 | -2 |
Individuals
| School | Best Time Points | |
| Dressel, Caeleb | Florida | 60 |
| Schooling, Joseph | Texas | 52 |
| Held, Ryan | NC State | 49.5 |
| Szaranek, Mark | Florida | 49.5 |
| Finnerty, Ian | Indiana | 49 |
| Auboeck, Felix | Michigan | 49 |
| Seliskar, Andrew | California | 46 |
| Bentz, Gunnar | Georgia | 45 |
| Lanza, Vini | Indiana | 42.5 |
| Haas, Townley | Texas | 42 |
| Vazaios, Andreas | NC State | 40.5 |
| Shebat, John | Texas | 40 |
| Stewart, Coleman | NC State | 36 |
| Gonzalez, Hugo | Auburn | 33 |
| Pieroni, Blake | Indiana | 32 |
| Mahmoud, Akaram | South Carolina | 32 |
| Ipsen, Anton Oerskov | NC State | 32 |
| Switkowski, Jan | Florida | 31.5 |
| Quah, Zheng | California | 31 |
| Roberts, Jonathan | Texas | 31 |
| DeVine, Abrahm | Stanford | 30.5 |
| Becker, Bowen | Minnesota | 30 |
| Apple, Zachary | Auburn | 29 |
| Carter, Dylan | Southern Cali | 29 |
| Farris, Dean | Harvard | 29 |
| McHugh, Conner | Minnesota | 28 |
| Shoults, Grant | Stanford | 26 |
| Kaliszak, Luke | Alabama | 25 |
| Wich-Glasen, Nils | South Carolina | 25 |
| Jackson, Tate | Texas | 25 |
| Brock, Levi | Indiana | 24 |
| Katz, Austin | Texas | 23 |
| Minuth, Fynn | South Carolina | 23 |
| Evdokimov, Alex | Cornell | 22 |
| Yeadon, Zach | Notre Dame | 22 |
| Ringgold, Brett | Texas | 20.5 |
| Ress, Justin | NC State | 20.5 |
| Vargas Jacobo, Ricardo | Michigan | 20 |
| Acosta, Marcelo | Louisville | 19 |
| Sweetser, True | Stanford | 19 |
| Litherland, Jay | Georgia | 19 |
| Castillo Luna, Mauro | Texas A&M | 18.5 |
| Stuart, Hennessey | NC State | 18 |
| Mulcare, Patrick | Southern Cali | 17 |
| Vissering, Carsten | Southern Cali | 17 |
| Lynch, Justin | California | 17 |
| Craig, Cameron | Arizona St | 17 |
| Ransford, Pj | Michigan | 17 |
| Nikolaev, Mark | Grand Canyon University | 16 |
| Hoppe, Connor | California | 16 |
| Tribuntsov, Ralf | Southern Cali | 15 |
| Loncar, Anton | Denver | 15 |
| Josa, Matthew | California | 15 |
| Acevedo, Javier | Georgia | 14.5 |
| Samy, Mohamed | Indiana | 14 |
| Stevens, Peter | Tennessee | 14 |
| Montague, Jacob | Michigan | 14 |
| Claverie, Carlos | Louisville | 14 |
| Condorelli, Santo | Southern Cali | 14 |
| Wright, Justin | Arizona | 14 |
| Powers, Paul | Michigan | 14 |
| Lense, Noah | Ohio St | 13.5 |
| Fantoni, Gabriel | Indiana | 13 |
| Baqlah, Khader | Florida | 13 |
| Albiero, Nicolas | Louisville | 12 |
| Sendyk, Pawel | California | 12 |
| Egan, Liam | Stanford | 12 |
| Pomajevich, Sam | Texas | 12 |
| Khalafalla, Ali | Indiana | 11 |
| Amaltdinov, Marat | Purdue | 11 |
| Perry, Sam | Stanford | 11 |
| Rooney, Maxime | Florida | 11 |
| Almeida, Brandonn | South Carolina | 11 |
| Harty, Ryan | Texas | 11 |
| Schubert, Ted | Virginia | 10 |
| Glinta, Robert | Southern Cali | 9 |
| Norman, Nick | California | 9 |
| Swanson, Charlie | Michigan | 9 |
| Somov, Evgenii | Louisville | 8 |
| Peribonio, Tom | South Carolina | 8 |
| Reid, Christopher | Alabama | 7 |
| White, Evan | Michigan | 7 |
| Thomas, Mike | California | 7 |
| Bish, Blair | Missouri St. M | 6 |
| Kaleoaloha, Kanoa | Florida St | 6 |
| Grieshop, Sean | California | 6 |
| Novak, Brennan | Harvard | 6 |
| Newkirk, Jeff | Texas | 6 |
| Cope, Tommy | Michigan | 6 |
| Dobbs, Chatham | Arizona | 5 |
| Holoda, Peter | Auburn | 5 |
| Bekemeyer, Cody | South Carolina | 5 |
| Ogren, Curtis | Stanford | 5 |
| Delakis, Paul | Ohio St | 5 |
| Armstrong, Jake | West Virginia | 4.5 |
| Poti, Zachary | Arizona St | 4 |
| Bonetti, Brock | Texas A&M | 4 |
| Molacek, Jacob | NC State | 4 |
| Loschi, Moises | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| Ferraro, Christian | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| Wielinski, Jacob | Missouri | 4 |
| Lawless, Ben | Florida | 4 |
| Szabo, Norbert | Virginia Tech | 3 |
| Howard, Robert | Alabama | 3 |
| Schreuders, Mikel | Missouri | 3 |
| Wieser, Chris | Arizona | 3 |
| McHugh, Sam | Tennessee | 3 |
| Thorne, Nick | Arizona | 3 |
| Plaschka, Justin | Notre Dame | 2.5 |
| Ungur, Paul | Utah | 2 |
| Cono, Ben | Loyola University Maryland | 2 |
| Tybur, Jonathan | Texas A&M | 2 |
| Gurevich, Etay | Louisville | 2 |
| Clark, Joe | Virginia | 1 |
| Whitacre, Robert | Notre Dame | 1 |
| Babinet, Jeremy | Michigan | 1 |
| Pumputis, Caio | Georgia Tech | 1 |
| Coetzee, Ryan | Tennessee | 1 |
| Higgins, Walker | Georgia | 1 |
| Harting, Zach | Louisville | 1 |
*I didn’t get times for transfers from their previous school, only their current school. Shouldn’t change much
wpDiscuz
How did you handle the relay times – same as psych sheet?
fun. doesn’t look like you credited Purdue with their 11 points scored by Amaltdinov in the 200 breast
Updated. Thanks.
Would it be possible to re-run this analysis including freshman by using their best time, or best time +- X% where X represents the historical average change from pre-NCAA lifetime bests to NCAA performances as a freshman? I think it would make the prediction model a little more robust
I agree. An ideal projection includes them. The problem is that while collegiate best times are easy to get, pre collegiate best times are hard to get.
I would assume all the yards times swim are in the swims database same as the colleges use
No, they’re actually really easy to get. Use the best times by event/SCY filter.
https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/individual-times-search
Using that requires you to look up the swimmers one at a time. Many names return multiple swimmers so you need to check each one until you find the correct one. Times 50 or so freshmen. Way too much work. Also lots of high school swim times are missing from that database.
Vs college swimming data which I already have every time swum the last 10 years in a file on my computer and can look up the times for everyone on the psych sheet with 10 lines of code. Easy.
I agree. The data wouldn’t be worth it, thanks for making that clear.
Especially because as soon as he did the work, every swimmer, parent, and alumni from every team that didn’t come out on top would bolt over here to tell him that his effort was meaningless ;-).