Projecting the Cut-Line for the 2018 Men’s NCAA Championships

The official NCAA invite lists won’t go out until Wednesday, but anybody with the pre-cut psych sheets, released earlier today, a spreadsheet, and an army of stat guys can do the math ahead of time to determine the invitees before they’re officially released – barring any changes to entries.

A refresher on how that process works: The NCAA will go through, event by event, and add one swimmer to each, until a certain “line” (aka, all 30th-ranked swimmers) puts the field over the maximum 235 individual entries (270 total minus 35 places for divers). At that point, swimmers will be invited based on who is the closest to the NCAA Championship Record in their event from the next line (in this case, line 37). If you want to look at the full procedure, check section 2.4 of the NCAA Pre Championship Manual. Once a swimmer is invited in an individual event, they can swim up to 2 other events in which they have “B” cuts.

Unlike the women’s cut line, that fell way shorter than normal, the men’s cut-line fell about where it usually does – everybody ranked 28th-or-better in at least one event earned an invite, as did the 3 swimmers from the 29-line whose times, by percentage, are closest to the NCAA Championship Record.

This year, the Cal men lead the way with 17 invitees – making them the only team in danger of having to bump an individual qualifier to stay under the cap of 18. They had 1 diver qualify already (who counts as half an entrant), and aren’t expected to take any relay-only swimmers, so they should be clear to take all 17 individual invitees.

Texas, who has had to deal with leaving qualifiers while winning the last 3 championships, and Stanford each have 15 individual invitees. 7 teams have double-digit invitees. That list includes Virginia, who doubled their count from 5 last season to 10 this season.

2 of the first 3 alternates are from the upstart Grand Canyon program, with Danil Antipov and Youssef El Kamash sitting just outside of the meet, for now. Both swimmers will be at the meet anyway – Grand Canyon earned a Qualifying Standard in the 200 free, 200 medley, and 400 medley relays in their first season eligible for the NCAA Division I Championships.

Alternates:
Antipov, Daniil Grand Canyon University 200 Butterfly
El Kamash, Youssef Grand Canyon University 100 Breaststroke
Balogh, Brennan Florida 200 Backstroke

Individual Invites, By School:

Rank School # of Entries
1. California 17
2. Texas 15
3. Stanford 15
4. Michigan 14
5. Florida 13
6. NC State 12
7. Virginia 10
8. Georgia 9
9. Auburn 8
10. Indiana 8
11. South Carolina 8
12. Louisville 8
13. Texas A&M 7
14. Arizona St 7
15. Arizona 6
16. Southern Cali 6
17. Alabama 6
18. Ohio St 6
19. Missouri 6
20. Tennessee 6
21. Harvard 4
22. Florida St 4
23. Notre Dame 3
24. West Virginia 3
25. Virginia Tech 3
26. Georgia Tech 3
27. Yale 3
28. Minnesota 2
29. Denver 2
30. Utah 2
31. UCSB 2
32. Hawaii 2
33. East Carolina 2
34. Grand Canyon University 1
35. Cornell 1
36. Missouri St. M 1
37. Loyola University Maryland 1
38. Kentucky 1
39. UNLV M 1
40. Penn 1
41. Towson 1
42. UNC 1
43. GW 1
44. Purdue 1
45. Wisconsin 1
46. Iowa 1

Invited Athletes, and Highest-Ranked Event

Name School Event Line
Auboeck, Felix Michigan 500 Freestyle 1
Farris, Dean Harvard 200 Freestyle 1
Ipsen, Anton Oerskov NC State 1650 Freestyle 1
Gonzalez, Hugo Auburn 200 IM 1
Finnerty, Ian Indiana 100 Breaststroke 1
Stewart, Coleman NC State 100 Backstroke 1
Dressel, Caeleb Florida 50 Freestyle 1
Lanza, Vini Indiana 200 Butterfly 1
Schooling, Joseph Texas 100 Butterfly 1
Katz, Austin Texas 200 Backstroke 1
Pieroni, Blake Indiana 200 Freestyle 2
Minuth, Fynn South Carolina 500 Freestyle 2
Szaranek, Mark Florida 200 IM 2
Becker, Bowen Minnesota 50 Freestyle 2
Nikolaev, Mark Grand Canyon University 100 Backstroke 2
Brock, Levi Indiana 100 Breaststroke 2
Quah, Zheng California 200 Butterfly 2
Seliskar, Andrew California 200 Breaststroke 2
Jackson, Tate Texas 100 Freestyle 2
Vargas Jacobo, Ricardo Michigan 500 Freestyle 3
Yeadon, Zach Notre Dame 1650 Freestyle 3
Baqlah, Khader Florida 200 Freestyle 3
DeVine, Abrahm Stanford 200 IM 3
Held, Ryan NC State 50 Freestyle 3
McHugh, Conner Minnesota 100 Breaststroke 3
Wright, Justin Arizona 200 Butterfly 3
Fantoni, Gabriel Indiana 100 Backstroke 3
Mahmoud, Akaram South Carolina 1650 Freestyle 4
Haas, Townley Texas 200 Freestyle 4
Almeida, Brandonn South Carolina 400 IM 4
Montague, Jacob Michigan 100 Breaststroke 4
Mulcare, Patrick Southern Cali 200 Backstroke 4
Apple, Zachary Auburn 50 Freestyle 4
Acevedo, Javier Georgia 100 Backstroke 4
Shoults, Grant Stanford 500 Freestyle 5
Samy, Mohamed Indiana 200 Freestyle 5
Switkowski, Jan Florida 200 IM 5
Swanson, Charlie Michigan 400 IM 5
Vazaios, Andreas NC State 200 Butterfly 5
Lynch, Justin California 100 Butterfly 5
Evdokimov, Alex Cornell 100 Breaststroke 5
Harty, Ryan Texas 200 Backstroke 5
Castillo Luna, Mauro Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 5
Glinta, Robert Southern Cali 100 Backstroke 5
Norman, Nick California 1650 Freestyle 6
Schubert, Ted Virginia 400 IM 6
Pomajevich, Sam Texas 200 Butterfly 6
Hoppe, Connor California 100 Breaststroke 6
Reid, Christopher Alabama 200 Backstroke 6
Ress, Justin NC State 50 Freestyle 6
Tribuntsov, Ralf Southern Cali 100 Backstroke 6
Craig, Cameron Arizona St 200 Freestyle 7
White, Evan Michigan 200 IM 7
Litherland, Jay Georgia 400 IM 7
Lense, Noah Ohio St 200 Butterfly 7
Bish, Blair Missouri St. M 100 Breaststroke 7
Josa, Matthew California 100 Butterfly 7
Novak, Brennan Harvard 500 Freestyle 8
Acosta, Marcelo Louisville 1650 Freestyle 8
Newkirk, Jeff Texas 200 Freestyle 8
Ogren, Curtis Stanford 400 IM 8
Bentz, Gunnar Georgia 200 Butterfly 8
Kaleoaloha, Kanoa Florida St 100 Butterfly 8
Vissering, Carsten Southern Cali 100 Breaststroke 8
Albiero, Nicolas Louisville 100 Backstroke 8
Holoda, Peter Auburn 100 Freestyle 8
Powers, Paul Michigan 50 Freestyle 8
Cope, Tommy Michigan 200 Breaststroke 8
Sweetser, True Stanford 1650 Freestyle 9
Delakis, Paul Ohio St 200 Freestyle 9
Bonetti, Brock Texas A&M 200 IM 9
Armstrong, Jake West Virginia 100 Breaststroke 9
Loncar, Anton Denver 200 Backstroke 9
Poti, Zachary Arizona St 100 Backstroke 9
Condorelli, Santo Southern Cali 50 Freestyle 9
Molacek, Jacob NC State 100 Freestyle 9
Ringgold, Brett Texas 100 Freestyle 9
Somov, Evgenii Louisville 200 Breaststroke 9
Egan, Liam Stanford 500 Freestyle 10
Grieshop, Sean California 1650 Freestyle 10
Gurevich, Etay Louisville 400 IM 10
Thomas, Mike California 200 Butterfly 10
Dobbs, Chatham Arizona 100 Butterfly 10
Roberts, Jonathan Texas 200 Backstroke 10
Ungur, Paul Utah 100 Backstroke 10
Claverie, Carlos Louisville 200 Breaststroke 10
Wielinski, Jacob Missouri 1650 Freestyle 11
Rooney, Maxime Florida 200 Freestyle 11
Szabo, Norbert Virginia Tech 200 IM 11
Thorne, Nick Arizona 400 IM 11
Plaschka, Justin Notre Dame 100 Butterfly 11
Clark, Joe Virginia 100 Backstroke 11
Sendyk, Pawel California 50 Freestyle 11
Calloni, Johannes Stanford 1650 Freestyle 12
Peribonio, Tom South Carolina 400 IM 12
Ferraro, Christian Georgia Tech 200 Butterfly 12
Cono, Ben Loyola University Maryland 100 Breaststroke 12
Howard, Robert Alabama 50 Freestyle 12
Tybur, Jonathan Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 12
Carter, Dylan Southern Cali 200 Freestyle 13
Stewart, Sam Texas 400 IM 13
Coetzee, Ryan Tennessee 100 Butterfly 13
Babinet, Jeremy Michigan 100 Breaststroke 13
Whitacre, Robert Notre Dame 200 Backstroke 13
Kaliszak, Luke Alabama 100 Backstroke 13
Decoursey, Kyle Tennessee 50 Freestyle 13
Pumputis, Caio Georgia Tech 200 Breaststroke 13
Higgins, Walker Georgia 500 Freestyle 14
Manganiello, Blake Florida 1650 Freestyle 14
Schreuders, Mikel Missouri 200 Freestyle 14
Casey, Brendan Virginia 400 IM 14
Liang, Andrew Stanford 100 Butterfly 14
Barone, Jack Ohio St 100 Breaststroke 14
Taylor, Michael Florida 200 Backstroke 14
Guest, James Georgia 200 Breaststroke 14
Shebat, John Texas 100 Backstroke 14
Blaskovic, Bruno Indiana 100 Freestyle 14
Jones, Isaac Kentucky 500 Freestyle 15
Gonzales, Brad UNLV M 1650 Freestyle 15
Andrew, Mark Penn 400 IM 15
Harting, Zach Louisville 200 Butterfly 15
Stevens, Peter Tennessee 100 Breaststroke 15
Stuart, Hennessey NC State 200 Backstroke 15
Hoffer, Ryan California 50 Freestyle 15
Waddell, Zane Alabama 100 Backstroke 15
Stone, Lane Virginia Tech 500 Freestyle 16
Wieser, Chris Arizona 1650 Freestyle 16
Loy, Andrew Ohio St 200 Freestyle 16
Martinez, Jose Texas A&M 200 Butterfly 16
Sand, Carson California 100 Breaststroke 16
Wich-Glasen, Nils South Carolina 200 Breaststroke 16
Barna, Andrej Louisville 50 Freestyle 16
Dudzinski, Ryan Stanford 100 Backstroke 16
Fail, Brooks Arizona 500 Freestyle 17
Houck, Logan Harvard 1650 Freestyle 17
Reilman, Joey Tennessee 200 Freestyle 17
Sos, Daniel Louisville 400 IM 17
Dunphy, Matthew Tennessee 100 Breaststroke 17
Anderson, Matt Stanford 100 Breaststroke 17
Carr, Daniel California 200 Backstroke 17
Lorenz, Christian Arizona St 200 Breaststroke 17
Jensen, Michael California 50 Freestyle 17
McIntyre, Jack NC State 1650 Freestyle 18
Olson, Tanner Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 18
Khalafalla, Ali Indiana 50 Freestyle 18
Brady, Andrew Florida 500 Freestyle 19
Yeager, Chris Texas 1650 Freestyle 19
House, Grant Arizona St 200 Freestyle 19
Van Overdam, Austin Texas A&M 200 IM 19
Bretscher, James NC State 200 Butterfly 19
Goldfaden, Itay South Carolina 100 Breaststroke 19
Otto, Matthew Virginia 200 Breaststroke 19
Farber, Sid Denver 50 Freestyle 19
Hotchkiss, Logan UCSB 500 Freestyle 20
Bekemeyer, Cody South Carolina 1650 Freestyle 20
Sanders, Grant Florida 400 IM 20
Julian, Trenton California 200 Butterfly 20
Saunderson, Jack Towson 200 Butterfly 20
Martinez, Luis Auburn 100 Butterfly 20
McBryan, Michael UNC 100 Breaststroke 20
Mefford, Bryce California 200 Backstroke 20
Aydin, Metin Hawaii 200 Backstroke 20
Whittle, Matt California 200 Breaststroke 20
Main, Bayley Florida 100 Backstroke 20
Borges, Gus Michigan 50 Freestyle 20
O’Haimhirgin, Liam Utah 100 Freestyle 20
Hyogo, Kei Yale 500 Freestyle 21
Georgiadis, Luke Virginia 200 Freestyle 21
Grimes, Carter Missouri 400 IM 21
Grassi, Santiago Auburn 100 Butterfly 21
Brewer, Tommy Auburn 100 Breaststroke 21
Hokfelt, Gustav GW 100 Backstroke 21
Loschi, Moises Georgia Tech 200 Breaststroke 21
Pisani, Will Florida St 50 Freestyle 21
Neri, Parker Texas 500 Freestyle 22
Coan, Kyle California 200 Freestyle 22
McHugh, Sam Tennessee 200 IM 22
Murphy, Camden Georgia 200 Butterfly 22
Burns, Aidan Georgia 400 IM 22
McCloskey, Liam Auburn 100 Butterfly 22
Porter, Andrew Arizona St 100 Butterfly 22
Barnum, Keefer Virginia 100 Breaststroke 22
Hein, Daniel Missouri 100 Backstroke 22
Walker, Benjamin Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 22
Peek, James Michigan 50 Freestyle 22
Ransford, Pj Michigan 500 Freestyle 23
Kokko, Olli Hawaii 100 Breaststroke 23
Fong, Zach Virginia 200 Butterfly 23
Mullis, Billy UCSB 200 Backstroke 23
Amaltdinov, Marat Purdue 200 Breaststroke 23
Perry, Sam Stanford 100 Freestyle 23
Knowles, Eric NC State 500 Freestyle 24
Lima, Giovanny Missouri 200 Freestyle 24
Smachlo, Miles Michigan 200 Butterfly 24
Polianski, Max Florida St 200 Butterfly 24
Giller, Robby Virginia 200 Backstroke 24
Larson, JohnThomas Texas 500 Freestyle 25
Davila, Rafael South Carolina 1650 Freestyle 25
Lin, Adrian Yale 200 Freestyle 25
Forde, Clayton Georgia 400 IM 25
Keblish, Bryce Virginia 100 Butterfly 25
Poppe, Hank Stanford 100 Breaststroke 25
Beach, Clark Florida 200 Backstroke 25
Ho, Benjamin Stanford 200 Backstroke 25
Pastorek, Brennan Stanford 200 Breaststroke 25
Staka, Chris Alabama 100 Backstroke 25
Ho, Ian Virginia Tech 50 Freestyle 25
Greenberg, Aaron Yale 50 Freestyle 25
Abeysinghe, Matthew Ohio St 100 Freestyle 25
Magnan, Sam Virginia 500 Freestyle 26
Lawless, Ben Florida 1650 Freestyle 26
Lebed, Alexander Florida 200 IM 26
Zdroik, Brad Stanford 100 Butterfly 26
Painhas, Henrique Ohio St 200 Butterfly 26
Comforti, Danny Arizona St 200 Breaststroke 26
Said, Youssef Georgia 100 Backstroke 26
Goicoechea, Victor Wisconsin 1650 Freestyle 27
Iga, Jorge Arizona 200 Freestyle 27
Dixon, David West Virginia 200 Butterfly 27
Bams, Laurent Alabama 100 Breaststroke 27
Artmann, Josh Texas 200 Backstroke 27
Hensley, Noah NC State 100 Backstroke 27
Elliott, Reid Arizona St 100 Backstroke 27
Mylin, Chad Florida St 50 Freestyle 27
Izzo, Giovanni NC State 100 Freestyle 27
Dannhauser, Josh Auburn 1650 Freestyle 28
Al-Yamani, Mokhtar Michigan 200 Freestyle 28
Tan, Steven Harvard 100 Butterfly 28
Di Sibio, Tristen West Virginia 100 Breaststroke 28
Alexander, Nick Missouri 200 Backstroke 28
Arentewicz, Jacek East Carolina 200 Breaststroke 28
Smith, Jack Iowa 100 Freestyle 28
Liang, Alex Stanford 400 IM 29
Santos, Gus East Carolina 100 Butterfly 29
Jones, James Michigan 100 Butterfly 29

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nonrevhoofan

Virginia’s 5 qualifiers last year included Bryce Shelton (diver) who has now qualified again and John Whiteside (who is redshirting). Thus, there are actually 7 new qualifiers – 3 1st Years (ranked as the #56, #72 and #87 recruits by collegeswimming.com) and 4 upperclassmen who didn’t qualify last year. Says volumes about #thedesorboeffect.

jmanswimfan

In Collegeswimming.coms ranking of the class of 2015 Devine was 75th Apple was 34th, Harty was 78, Ress and Becker were 156 and 157. It doesn’t matter what your ranking is going in.

ACC Fan

You make a very good point ^^^, which probably has the UVA recruits even more excited to arrive this August (and the next)!!!!

All Hail DeSorbo

I hear the booming economy, North/South Korea peace talks, and the fact that West Virginia teachers are now protesting for higher wages are all due to the #desorboeffect as well.

nonrevhoofan

Are you trying to get DJT and Coach DeSorbo in a Twitter war? I know who I would have my $$$ on.

Snarky

Sorry, that was all DEAN FARRISS!!!!

gator

editor, note that Seliskar was 200 Fly last year….

Interesting

Michigan sophomores with 7 individual qualifiers, probably the most of any class.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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