Projecting the Cutline – 2021 NCAA Men’s Division I Championships

2021 NCAA MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

  • When: Wednesday, March 24 – Saturday, March 27, 2021
  • Where: Greensboro Aquatic Center / Greensboro, NC (Eastern Time Zone)
  • Defending champion: Cal (1x) – 2019 results
  • Streaming:
  • Championship Central
  • Live Results

Our story on pre-selection psych sheets here.

See the full pre-selection NCAA men’s psych sheets here.

The 2021 NCAA Men’s Championships should, like the women’s meet, invite more swimmers than usual. This year, the cutline is projected to fall three swimmers into the 32 line, which is a bit more than in 2020, when they took two swimmers into the 30 line.

As always, our analysis is only an unofficial projection, and we’ll update this story if our checks and rechecks of the math change the projected selections. Big thanks to SwimSwam’s Andrew Mering for crunching all the numbers after the pre-selection sheets were released late last night.

SELECTION CRITERIA

The NCAA selection criteria is relatively complex, based on getting exactly 270 men and 322 women into the national championship meet. You can read the finer points of that selection criteria here, but the upshot is that the top 35 to 40 women in each event should earn an invite in most years, while the top 28 to 33 men should be in line for invites.

2021 CUT LINE PROJECTIONS

ALTERNATES

Alternates are called up to the meet when there are scratches– given the number of Texas men invited to the meet, scratches from them whittling down the roster size alone should make space for a bunch of alternates.

This is the second year where the tiebreaker between alternates in the same line (e.g., row 32, row 33) uses the NCAA A cut, rather than the NCAA record. The mathematical formula is the A cut divided by the swimmer’s time, with the highest percentage (or closest relative time to the A cut) winning the tiebreak.

Line Name School Event Time Tiebreaker
32 Ungur, Andrei Utah 100 Backstroke 46.37 0.969377
32 Storms, Eric Michigan 100 Backstroke 46.37 0.969377
33 Kusto, Rafal NC State 100 Breaststroke 52.4 0.986069
33 Roberts, Will Michigan 1650 Freestyle 14:59.87 0.97493
34 McFadden, Evan Ohio St 100 Breaststroke 52.41 0.985881
34 Ghaffari, Mohamed Florida St 500 Freestyle 4:16.59 0.98141
34 Wright, Jack Virginia 200 Freestyle 1:34.18 0.977384
34 Messenger, Jack UNC 100 Butterfly 46.28 0.973423
34 Schilling, Sam Virginia 200 IM 1:44.18 0.972739
34 Lulek, William Penn St 400 IM 3:45.71 0.97098
35 Couchon, Andrew Texas 100 Breaststroke 52.44 0.985317
35 Ribeiro, Vincent Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 1:54.33 0.984956
35 Martos Bacarizo, Manu Northwestern 200 Backstroke 1:41.82 0.973875
35 Smith, T.C. Louisville 1650 Freestyle 15:01.33 0.97335
35 Edwards, Max Virginia 100 Butterfly 46.29 0.973212
35 Mihm, Rick Stanford 400 IM 3:45.76 0.970765
36 Frazier, Forrest California 100 Breaststroke 52.46 0.984941
36 Isings, Connor Ohio St 200 Breaststroke 1:54.36 0.984697
36 Scanlon, Scott Tennessee 50 Freestyle 19.48 0.973306
36 Oh, Micah U.S. Navy 200 Butterfly 1:43.54 0.97315
36 Calvillo, Mikey Indiana 1650 Freestyle 15:01.89 0.972746
36 Feehery, Colin SMU 400 IM 3:45.94 0.969992

BY SCHOOL

These are swimming invites only, not including relays or diving. Notably, Texas has eight swimmers more than the roster cap of 18, and that’s not even including diving. The Longhorns could end up scratching into the double digits in order to make room for divers and meet the roster cap. Last year, they had more than 18 men under the invite time, but didn’t enter them all, so they only needed to scratch a couple to make room for divers.

Cal is next with 15 invited swimmers, followed by NC State and Georgia, both tied with 13, and then Florida with 12. Louisville has 11 invited swimmers, while Michigan, Stanford and Virginia Tech have 10, each.

School Swimmers Invited
Texas 26
California 15
NC State 13
Georgia 13
Florida 12
Louisville 11
Michigan 10
Stanford 10
Virginia Tech 10
Virginia 9
Indiana 9
Alabama 9
Ohio St 8
Arizona 8
Florida St 7
Texas A&M 6
Tennessee 5
Missouri 5
Penn St 4
Notre Dame 4
Georgia Tech 4
Wisconsin 4
UNC 3
Northwestern 3
U.S. Navy 3
Auburn 3
Purdue 3
Southern Cali 2
LSU 2
Pittsburgh 2
Kentucky 2
SMU 1
Utah 1
Minnesota 1
Iowa 1
Cincinnati 1
UNLV (M) 1
Brigham Young 1
Duke 1
West Virginia 1
Air Force (M) 1

CALCULATED LIST OF INVITEES, BY INVITE PRIORITY

Line Name School Event Time Tiebreaker
1 Whitley, Reece California 200 Breaststroke 1:48.53 1.037593
1 Finke, Bobby Florida 1650 Freestyle 14:12.18 1.029489
1 McHugh, Max Minnesota 100 Breaststroke 50.19 1.029488
1 Smith, Kieran Florida 200 Freestyle 1:29.48 1.028722
1 Casas, Shaine Texas A&M 200 Backstroke 1:36.54 1.027139
1 Julian, Trenton California 200 Butterfly 1:38.53 1.022633
1 Foster, Carson Texas 400 IM 3:35.27 1.01807
1 Ramadan, Youssef Virginia Tech 100 Butterfly 44.32 1.016471
1 Chaney, Adam Florida 50 Freestyle 18.76 1.010661
1 Krueger, Daniel Texas 100 Freestyle 41.33 1.009194
2 Magahey, Jake Georgia 500 Freestyle 4:06.71 1.020713
2 Albiero, Nicolas Louisville 200 Butterfly 1:39.08 1.016956
2 Kibler, Drew Texas 200 Freestyle 1:30.57 1.016341
2 Chan, Will Michigan 100 Breaststroke 50.95 1.014132
2 Lasco, Destin California 200 Backstroke 1:38.13 1.010496
2 Gonzalez, Hugo California 400 IM 3:37.31 1.008513
2 Hoffer, Ryan California 50 Freestyle 18.81 1.007974
2 Stokowski, Kacper NC State 100 Backstroke 44.82 1.0029
3 Pomajevich, Sam Texas 200 Butterfly 1:39.19 1.015828
3 Roy, Daniel Stanford 200 Breaststroke 1:51.07 1.013865
3 Somov, Evgenii Louisville 100 Breaststroke 51.03 1.012542
3 Seeliger, Bjorn California 50 Freestyle 18.84 1.006369
3 Hoagland, Jack Notre Dame 1650 Freestyle 14:31.83 1.006286
3 Murphy, Camden Georgia 100 Butterfly 44.77 1.006254
3 Carr, Daniel California 200 Backstroke 1:38.81 1.003542
3 Delakis, Paul Ohio St 200 Freestyle 1:31.90 1.001632
3 King, Matt Alabama 100 Freestyle 41.66 1.0012
3 Kovac, Danny Missouri 200 IM 1:41.35 0.999901
4 Burns, Brendan Indiana 200 Butterfly 1:39.22 1.015521
4 Backes, Zane Indiana 100 Breaststroke 51.04 1.012343
4 Brownstead, Matt Virginia 50 Freestyle 18.88 1.004237
4 Yeadon, Zach California 1650 Freestyle 14:33.69 1.004143
4 Armstrong, Hunter Ohio St 100 Backstroke 44.92 1.000668
4 Sancov, Alexei Southern Cali 200 Freestyle 1:32.20 0.998373
4 Schlicht, David Arizona 400 IM 3:39.59 0.998042
4 Curry, Brooks LSU 100 Freestyle 41.80 0.997847
4 Mefford, Bryce California 200 Backstroke 1:39.85 0.99309
5 Ivanov, Antani Virginia Tech 200 Butterfly 1:39.82 1.009417
5 Hillis, Dillon Florida 100 Breaststroke 51.22 1.008786
5 Downing, Dillon Georgia 50 Freestyle 18.90 1.003175
5 Frankel, Tomer Indiana 100 Butterfly 44.91 1.003117
5 Jiang, Alvin Texas 100 Butterfly 44.91 1.003117
5 Dant, Ross NC State 1650 Freestyle 14:35.73 1.001804
5 Acevedo, Javi Georgia 100 Backstroke 44.96 0.999778
5 Foster, Jake Texas 400 IM 3:40.35 0.9946
5 Whyte, Mitchell Louisville 200 Backstroke 1:39.98 0.991798
6 Mathews, Jason Ohio St 100 Breaststroke 51.30 1.007212
6 Pumputis, Caio Georgia Tech 200 Breaststroke 1:51.81 1.007155
6 Theall, Mark Texas A&M 500 Freestyle 4:10.67 1.004588
6 Ferraro, Christian Georgia Tech 200 Butterfly 1:40.64 1.001192
6 Brinegar, Michael Indiana 1650 Freestyle 14:38.26 0.998918
6 Manoff, Blake Virginia Tech 200 Freestyle 1:32.23 0.998048
6 Grum, Ian Georgia 400 IM 3:40.51 0.993878
7 Nichols, Noah Virginia 100 Breaststroke 51.36 1.006036
7 Urlando, Luca Georgia 100 Butterfly 44.97 1.001779
7 Corbeau, Caspar Texas 200 Breaststroke 1:52.52 1.0008
7 Miller, Luke NC State 200 Freestyle 1:32.28 0.997508
7 Johnston, David Texas 1650 Freestyle 14:41.46 0.995292
8 Houlie, Michael Tennessee 100 Breaststroke 51.38 1.005644
8 Fail, Brooks Arizona 500 Freestyle 4:11.29 1.002109
8 Pouch, Aj Virginia Tech 200 Breaststroke 1:52.60 1.000089
8 Vera, Blaise Pittsburgh 50 Freestyle 19.03 0.996322
8 Staka, Chris Texas 100 Backstroke 45.12 0.996232
8 Mitchell, Jake Michigan 1650 Freestyle 14:42.60 0.994006
8 Sameh, Haridi Louisville 100 Freestyle 42.03 0.992386
8 Daly, Michael Penn St 400 IM 3:41.09 0.991271
9 Epitropov, Lyubomir Tennessee 200 Breaststroke 1:52.69 0.99929
9 Unlu, Baturalp Georgia Tech 200 Freestyle 1:32.40 0.996212
9 Andreis, Sem Ohio St 50 Freestyle 19.05 0.995276
9 Reed, Greg Georgia 1650 Freestyle 14:43.69 0.99278
9 Wright, River Michigan 100 Freestyle 42.06 0.991679
9 Grieshop, Sean California 400 IM 3:41.30 0.99033
9 Marcum, Jake Alabama 200 Backstroke 1:40.48 0.986863
10 Olson, Tanner Texas A&M 100 Breaststroke 51.39 1.005449
10 Puente Bustamante, Andres Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 1:52.74 0.998847
10 Freeman, Trey Florida 500 Freestyle 4:12.76 0.996281
10 Menke, Matthew Alabama 100 Backstroke 45.18 0.994909
10 Berlitz, Danny Michigan 400 IM 3:41.45 0.989659
10 Mefford, Colby California 200 Backstroke 1:40.50 0.986667
11 Van Der Laan, Cooper Pittsburgh 100 Breaststroke 51.52 1.002911
11 Mestre, Alfonso Florida 500 Freestyle 4:12.77 0.996242
11 Clark, Charlie Ohio St 1650 Freestyle 14:45.24 0.991042
11 Franzman, Jack Indiana 50 Freestyle 19.14 0.990596
11 Somerset, Sebastian California 200 Backstroke 1:40.62 0.98549
11 Liang, Alex Stanford 400 IM 3:42.44 0.985254
12 McDaniel, Hudson Ohio St 100 Breaststroke 51.59 1.001551
12 Dalmolin, Jack Georgia 200 Breaststroke 1:52.80 0.998316
12 Gadgaard, Mikkel Auburn 500 Freestyle 4:12.80 0.996123
12 Callan, Patrick Michigan 200 Freestyle 1:32.67 0.99331
12 Fantoni, Gabriel Indiana 100 Backstroke 45.26 0.993151
12 Zettle, Alex Texas 1650 Freestyle 14:45.56 0.990684
12 Rose, Dare California 200 Butterfly 1:42.13 0.986586
12 Brown, Zach NC State 200 Butterfly 1:42.13 0.986586
12 Grender, Justin Virginia 200 Backstroke 1:40.63 0.985392
12 Vines, Braden Texas 400 IM 3:42.57 0.984679
13 Bottelberghe, Josh Notre Dame 200 Breaststroke 1:52.87 0.997696
13 Miljenic, Nikola Southern Cali 100 Butterfly 45.33 0.993823
13 Barone, Kyle Georgia Tech 100 Backstroke 45.30 0.992274
13 Dannhauser, Joshua Wisconsin 1650 Freestyle 14:46.76 0.989343
13 Acin, Nikola Purdue 100 Freestyle 42.27 0.986752
13 Davis, Wyatt Michigan 200 Backstroke 1:40.68 0.984903
13 Abruzzo, Andrew Georgia 400 IM 3:42.78 0.983751
13 Hils, Zach Georgia 200 IM 1:43.18 0.982167
14 Myhre, Will Iowa 100 Breaststroke 51.70 0.99942
14 Mota, Kayky Tennessee 100 Butterfly 45.42 0.991854
14 Larson, Peter Texas 200 Freestyle 1:32.89 0.990957
14 Roberson, Will Penn St 50 Freestyle 19.17 0.989045
14 Knowles, Eric NC State 1650 Freestyle 14:48.06 0.987895
14 Eichberg, Dylan Virginia Tech 200 Butterfly 1:42.14 0.986489
14 Beach, Clark Florida 200 Backstroke 1:40.83 0.983437
14 Katz, Austin Texas 200 Backstroke 1:40.83 0.983437
14 Daigle, Jared Michigan 400 IM 3:43.24 0.981724
15 Abaliksta, Valdas UNC 100 Breaststroke 51.74 0.998647
15 Barnum, Keefer Virginia 200 Breaststroke 1:53.02 0.996372
15 Walker, Jack Virginia 500 Freestyle 4:13.45 0.993569
15 Hu, Ethan Stanford 100 Butterfly 45.47 0.990763
15 Sannem, Jake Texas 200 Freestyle 1:32.98 0.989998
15 Heasley, Ethan Texas 1650 Freestyle 14:48.10 0.98785
15 Harder, Ethan Texas 200 Butterfly 1:42.18 0.986103
15 Aman, Caleb Wisconsin 400 IM 3:43.33 0.981328
16 Houseman, Kevin Northwestern 100 Breaststroke 51.75 0.998454
16 Maas, Derek Alabama 200 Breaststroke 1:53.13 0.995404
16 Steele, Jacob Indiana 100 Backstroke 45.39 0.990306
16 Plage, James NC State 1650 Freestyle 14:48.12 0.987828
16 Forst, Preston Stanford 200 Freestyle 1:33.23 0.987343
16 Ercegovic, Marin Arizona 50 Freestyle 19.22 0.986472
16 Crane, Cole Texas 200 Butterfly 1:42.21 0.985814
16 Hanna, Blake Cincinnati 200 Backstroke 1:40.96 0.982171
16 Affeld, Jonny Stanford 200 IM 1:43.42 0.979888
17 Friese, Eric Florida 100 Butterfly 45.65 0.986857
17 Maurer, Luke Stanford 200 Freestyle 1:33.28 0.986814
17 Shoults, Grant Stanford 1650 Freestyle 14:49.12 0.986717
17 Wilby, Mason Kentucky 200 Butterfly 1:42.28 0.985139
17 Benson, Andrew Wisconsin 50 Freestyle 19.25 0.984935
17 Maric, Ogi Arizona 200 Backstroke 1:41.09 0.980908
17 Vargas, Kevin Florida 400 IM 3:43.45 0.980801
17 Myburgh, Keith Virginia Tech 400 IM 3:43.45 0.980801
17 Coll Marti, Carles Virginia Tech 200 IM 1:43.47 0.979414
18 Patton, Ben Missouri 100 Breaststroke 51.80 0.99749
18 Namir, Daniel Arizona 200 Freestyle 1:33.40 0.985546
18 Celic, Vuk UNLV (M) 1650 Freestyle 14:50.34 0.985365
18 Henderson, Noah NC State 50 Freestyle 19.27 0.983913
18 Tornqvist, Samuel Virginia Tech 200 Backstroke 1:41.11 0.980714
19 Pellini, Trent Purdue 100 Breaststroke 51.81 0.997298
19 Dominguez, Josue Brigham Young 100 Breaststroke 51.81 0.997298
19 Reid, Noah Arizona 100 Butterfly 45.67 0.986424
19 Sibirtsev, Ilia Louisville 1650 Freestyle 14:51.33 0.984271
19 Koustik, Andrew Texas 200 Butterfly 1:42.38 0.984177
19 Houck, Jake Penn St 50 Freestyle 19.29 0.982893
19 Borges, Gus Michigan 100 Freestyle 42.50 0.981412
19 Gezmis, Erge NC State 400 IM 3:43.47 0.980713
19 Park, Jason Texas 200 Backstroke 1:41.14 0.980423
19 Blinkman, Shane Stanford 200 IM 1:43.53 0.978847
19 Herbet, Mason Florida St 100 Backstroke 45.93 0.978663
20 Otto, Matt Virginia 200 Breaststroke 1:53.41 0.992946
20 Lowe, Dalton Louisville 100 Butterfly 45.76 0.984484
20 McGovern, Garrett U.S. Navy 1650 Freestyle 14:51.57 0.984006
20 Whelan, Matthew Duke 200 Butterfly 1:42.41 0.983888
20 Dahlgren, Jack Missouri 200 Freestyle 1:33.66 0.98281
20 Peel, Cam Michigan 50 Freestyle 19.30 0.982383
20 Tapp, Hunter NC State 100 Freestyle 42.51 0.981181
20 Mathias, Van Indiana 200 IM 1:43.61 0.978091
21 Bastian, Izaak Florida St 100 Breaststroke 51.84 0.996721
21 Carrozza, Coby Texas 500 Freestyle 4:14.31 0.990209
21 Larson, Johnthomas Texas 1650 Freestyle 14:52.28 0.983223
21 Gambardella, Corey Indiana 200 Butterfly 1:42.53 0.982737
21 Watkins, Thomas Ohio St 200 Backstroke 1:41.15 0.980326
21 Dubois, Jack Missouri 400 IM 3:43.98 0.97848
22 Hunter, Mason Michigan 100 Breaststroke 51.93 0.994993
22 Dixon, David West Virginia 200 Butterfly 1:42.55 0.982545
22 Bratanov, Koko Texas A&M 200 Freestyle 1:33.70 0.982391
22 Sweetser, True Stanford 1650 Freestyle 14:53.08 0.982342
22 Walsh, Keegan Georgia 200 Backstroke 1:41.16 0.980229
22 Storch, Casey Virginia 400 IM 3:44.24 0.977346
22 Mauldin, Caleb U.S. Navy 100 Backstroke 46.16 0.973787
23 Iida, Sam Arizona 100 Breaststroke 51.97 0.994227
23 Van Zandt, Zac Texas 100 Butterfly 45.83 0.982981
23 Bowers, Noah NC State 200 Butterfly 1:42.56 0.982449
23 Curley, Hayden Louisville 1650 Freestyle 14:53.17 0.982243
23 Stelmar, Eric Alabama 200 Backstroke 1:41.17 0.980132
23 Jekel, Wes Wisconsin 200 IM 1:43.78 0.976489
23 Moore, Mikey NC State 400 IM 3:44.44 0.976475
23 McDermott, Colin Ohio St 100 Backstroke 46.19 0.973154
24 Bell, Liam Alabama 100 Breaststroke 52.05 0.992699
24 Smith, Zach Notre Dame 200 Butterfly 1:42.57 0.982354
24 Sherman, Nick Purdue 200 Freestyle 1:33.81 0.981239
24 Camblong, Tomy-Lee Georgia 1650 Freestyle 14:54.35 0.980947
24 Disette, Sam Alabama 50 Freestyle 19.35 0.979845
24 Dunham, Bradley Georgia 200 Backstroke 1:41.22 0.979648
24 Jhong, Chris California 400 IM 3:44.46 0.976388
25 Yanchev, Yordan Florida St 500 Freestyle 4:15.02 0.987452
25 Gravley, Brennan Florida 1650 Freestyle 14:54.62 0.980651
25 McCusker, Max Florida St 100 Butterfly 45.97 0.979987
25 Castano, Gabe Penn St 50 Freestyle 19.36 0.979339
25 Varjasi, Peter Florida St 100 Freestyle 42.65 0.97796
25 Christianson, Tyler Notre Dame 400 IM 3:44.49 0.976257
25 Sofianidis, Nikos Louisville 100 Backstroke 46.22 0.972523
26 Bailey, Seth Tennessee 200 Freestyle 1:33.85 0.98082
26 Neri, Parker Texas 1650 Freestyle 14:54.80 0.980454
26 Davis, Will Florida 50 Freestyle 19.37 0.978833
26 Calloni, Johannes Stanford 200 Backstroke 1:41.34 0.978488
26 Rosely, Zane Kentucky 400 IM 3:44.84 0.974738
27 Dillard, Jarel Tennessee 100 Breaststroke 52.21 0.989657
27 Sanchez, Alex Texas A&M 200 Breaststroke 1:53.87 0.988935
27 Lamastra, Connor Northwestern 200 Butterfly 1:42.68 0.981301
27 Sungalia, Tomas UNC 200 Freestyle 1:33.87 0.980611
27 Wilson, Daniel Missouri 100 Butterfly 45.98 0.979774
27 Poelke, Boyd UNC 100 Butterfly 45.98 0.979774
27 Eberly, Nik Auburn 50 Freestyle 19.38 0.978328
27 Bowman, Luke Texas 100 Freestyle 42.72 0.976358
28 Izzo, Giovanni NC State 100 Freestyle 42.74 0.975901
28 Conway, Sean Virginia 400 IM 3:45.06 0.973785
29 Rhodenbaugh, Caleb SMU 200 Breaststroke 1:53.98 0.98798
29 Watson, Tyler Florida 500 Freestyle 4:15.93 0.983941
29 Sztolcman, Christian Auburn 200 Freestyle 1:33.89 0.980403
29 Deryk, Cooper Utah 100 Butterfly 46.00 0.979348
29 Johnson, Luke U.S. Navy 1650 Freestyle 14:56.39 0.978715
29 Perera, Nicholas Alabama 400 IM 3:45.18 0.973266
30 Mason, Mitch LSU 100 Breaststroke 52.32 0.987576
30 Mok, Kai Tik Northwestern 200 Breaststroke 1:54.06 0.987287
30 Sobolewski, Luke NC State 100 Butterfly 46.07 0.97786
30 Taner, Brooks Arizona 200 Butterfly 1:43.09 0.977398
30 Quirie, David Florida St 1650 Freestyle 14:57.82 0.977156
30 Hallock, Thomas Virginia Tech 50 Freestyle 19.41 0.976816
30 Cole, Will Virginia 200 Backstroke 1:41.65 0.975504
30 Berneburg, Jonathan Alabama 100 Freestyle 42.79 0.97476
31 Scheinfeld, Charlie Texas 100 Breaststroke 52.35 0.987011
31 Paulson, Colton Louisville 200 Freestyle 1:33.94 0.979881
31 Kopp, Tyler California 1650 Freestyle 14:58.05 0.976906
31 Deliyiannis, Mihalis Louisville 50 Freestyle 19.44 0.975309
31 Dal Maso, Filippo Virginia Tech 400 IM 3:45.45 0.9721
31 Gwin, Isaac Air Force (M) 100 Backstroke 46.36 0.969586
32 Tannenberger, Matthew Texas 1650 Freestyle 14:58.94 0.975938
32 Cummings, Tanner Louisville 50 Freestyle 19.45 0.974807
32 Vance, Nick Florida St 400 IM 3:45.50 0.971885

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Former auburn fan
3 years ago

3 individual qualifiers for auburn! Give Gary a raise!

Waterbear13
Reply to  Former auburn fan
3 years ago

and only 2 for USC and 1 for Minnesota. Who’s had the hardest fall in the last 10-15 years?

NM Coach
Reply to  Waterbear13
3 years ago

Hands down…it goes to the Golden Gophers! I feel bad for the swimmers.

Just compare what Bill Dorenkott has done with OSU vs what Kelley has done with Minnesota in the last 3 years! To put it into perspective…the last time Minnesota was 9th in the Big Ten…it was when they still swam meets in Cooke Hall before the Jean Freeman Aquatic Center was even built!

U of A dogged a bullet when Kelley turned down replacing Frank Bush!

But when the statement was made “we’re going in a different direction” – I’m pretty sure the University wasn’t expecting the program to become a bottom feeder in the Big Ten.

War Damn
Reply to  Former auburn fan
3 years ago

And with Abbey Webb now in the transfer portal there goes the hope of their sprint group improving (on the girls end) any time soon!

wethorn
3 years ago

I’ve scored this meet the past 15 years using my own methodology that is a bit more subjective because I score it based on the best time a swimmer had either this year or last year. I think this gives a much more realistic prediction than simply scoring the psych and I’ve been pretty accurate over the years. I also include diving, with the caveat that I’m projecting a bit there given that zones haven’t happened.

I currently have Texas 514, Cal 501, with Texas having more upside from there.

Either team can win, should be a good one.

Taa
Reply to  wethorn
3 years ago

swapping first and second place in a relay is a 12 point swing. Its close but I think TX relays and diving carry them.

JeahBrah
Reply to  wethorn
3 years ago

Just curious, how did your prediction perform in 2019?

h2olover
Reply to  wethorn
3 years ago

Wet,

It looks like you are including dive points, correct?

Swammer
3 years ago

Is that the most swimmers NC State has had qualify?

West Coast Swammer
3 years ago

Will you be doing an analysis of these cut lines vs. last years, like you did with the women’s cut-lines? I’m interested to see if the men’s cut-lines “fell off” as much as the women, and also in which events the differences were the largest. My gut is telling me the women’s cut lines added more time, and I’m guessing especially in the longer events. We participate in a uniquely quantifiable sport. Can I say this year’s LA Lakers team is better than last year’s, just by looking at their stats? Nope – maybe the conference across the board is “underperforming”. But we can do it in swimming. Just curious ….

Willswim
3 years ago

My heart is breaking for Nate Biondi 😢

swimmer
Reply to  Willswim
3 years ago

Why?

Rip
Reply to  swimmer
3 years ago

Because he’s still can’t beat his dad.

Willswim
Reply to  swimmer
3 years ago

Because his father was a hero of mine and he missed the cut.

BearlyBreathing
Reply to  Willswim
3 years ago

Me too. Been rooting for him for a while now. Maybe he’ll be on Cal’s 200FR?

DMSWIM
Reply to  Willswim
3 years ago

He might be taken for the 4×100 free relay. His lead off was faster on the B relay at PAC12s than the lead off on the A relay was.

Ghost
3 years ago

Is that most swimmers from one team?

Huh
3 years ago

26….wow

PVSFree
3 years ago

Absolutely insane that Texas can get 26 swimmers invited. INSANE

PVSFree
Reply to  PVSFree
3 years ago

If they were allowed to bring all 26 nearly 10% of the swimmers at the meet would’ve been Texas. That’s bonkers

Oldmanswimmer
Reply to  PVSFree
3 years ago

I wonder at what point this might start to hurt their recruiting. All those kids making cuts but having to stay home, hard to take.

PVSFree
Reply to  Oldmanswimmer
3 years ago

We’ve been asking when it’s going to start hurting their recruiting for years, but they keep getting those blue chip recruits. I guess it’s just the team culture at a certain point

Splashanddasher
Reply to  PVSFree
3 years ago

HS kids keep getting better and better every year. All it takes is some adjustments from some guys to peak and bust out some great times and the next thing you know they’re jumping guys a year or two older than them. Realistically the sprinters probably have an easier gap to close then the better stroke and IM guys based off relays, but when you see how good some of these guys can get it probably doesn’t hurt recruiting in the long run.

NM Coach
Reply to  PVSFree
3 years ago

AND…TRANSFERS!

About Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon studied sociology at Wesleyan University in Middletown, CT, graduating in May of 2018. He began swimming on a club team in first grade and swam four years for Wesleyan.

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