For elite teams, conference meets serve as somewhat of a warm up for nationals. They don’t fully taper their stars because they already secured nationals qualification earlier in the year. Which teams are in a position to rest less changes every year based on who has put up fast times already.
We can get an idea of which teams can comfortably avoid resting and which will have to drop everyone to obtain cuts by looking at how swimmer’s times so far this year compare to the projected nationals cuts I published last week.
In that article I projected both an exact cut estimate and a 95% confidence interval that the cuts are likely to fall in. Last year with projections using the same model all cuts fell within the projected confidence intervals.
- If you need a refresher on how swimmers qualify for NCAA’s check out our article here. If you’re thinking “Didn’t the NCAA announce the A and B cuts months ago? Why are we guessing the cuts now?” The answer is there’s more to it than that. Check out the linked article for details.
To categorize times’ chances of getting in this year I called times that have been faster than the lower bound of the projected cut range in an event “Safe In.” Times in the confidence interval and faster than the projected cut are called “Bubble In,” and times in the confidence interval but slower than the projected cut are called “Bubble Out.”
The swimmers that are “Safe In” shouldn’t have anything to worry about. The model thinks there is a low chance that the cut will be outside the projected range and they are quicker than that already this season. The model thinks that the swimmers whose best event is “Bubble In” have a better than 50% chance of qualifying if they don’t improve their time at all at conference (obviously their chances will improve if they go faster). The swimmers whose best event is “Bubble Out” would not be a huge surprise if they qualified with their current time, but chances are better than not that they miss the meet unless they improve at conference.
Unsurprisingly the top ranked teams have the most likely qualifiers as of today. The women are led by Stanford who have 9 swimmers with at least one Safe In time, 1 swimmer with a Bubble In time, and 2 swimmers with Bubble Out times. Michigan, USC, Tennessee, and Texas A&M each have 7 swimmers with Safe In times.
The men are led by Cal who have 10 swimmers with at least 1 Safe In time, and 3 swimmers with Bubble In times. Texas are next with 9 Safe In swimmers, 3 Bubble In swimmers, and 5 Bubble Out swimmers.
The tables below contain the numbers of projected qualifiers with current times from each team, and below that how many times each swimmer from each team has in each category (swimmers not listed have 0 in all).
Team Qualifier Numbers
Number of swimmers on each team by their best qualification status in any event. That is if a swimmer has a time that is Safe In in one event and Bubble In in another, they count as Safe In only in the chart below.
Men
| Safe In | Bubble In | Bubble Out | |
| California | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Texas | 9 | 3 | 5 |
| Michigan | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Stanford | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Indiana | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Florida | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Arizona | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Arizona St | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Missouri | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Missouri St. | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| NC State | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Southern Cali | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Virginia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brigham Young | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Denver | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Canyon | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Harvard | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Louisville | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Florida St | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LSU | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ohio St | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UCSB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Utah | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Women
| Safe In | Bubble In | Bubble Out | |
| Stanford | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| Michigan | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Southern Cali | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Indiana | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| California | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| NC State | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Texas | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Florida | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Georgia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Missouri | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Notre Dame | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Auburn | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Louisville | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Virginia | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Alabama | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Florida St | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio St | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Penn St | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Rutgers | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SMU | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Yale | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Akron | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arizona St | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Liberty | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Purdue | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| San Diego St | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| U.S. Navy | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| UNC | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Villanova | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Individual Qualifier Numbers
Number of times each swimmer has in each category. Everyone not listed here is likely out in all their events with their current times.
Men
| Safe In | Bubble In | Bubble Out | ||
| Alabama | Bams, Laurent | 1 | ||
| Howard, Robert | 3 | |||
| Waddell, Zane | 1 | 1 | ||
| Arizona | Dobbs, Chatham | 2 | 1 | |
| Fail, Brooks | 2 | 1 | ||
| Iga, Jorge | 1 | |||
| Arizona St | House, Grant | 1 | ||
| Poti, Zachary | 2 | |||
| Brigham Young | Sorenson, Payton | 1 | ||
| California | Carr, Daniel | 1 | 1 | |
| Grieshop, Sean | 1 | 2 | ||
| Hoffer, Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jensen, Michael | 1 | 1 | ||
| Julian, Trenton | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mefford, Bryce | 1 | 1 | ||
| Norman, Nick | 1 | 1 | ||
| Quah, Zheng | 1 | 1 | ||
| Sand, Carson | 1 | |||
| Seliskar, Andrew | 5 | |||
| Sendyk, Pawel | 2 | |||
| Thomas, Mike | 1 | 2 | ||
| Whitley, Reece | 2 | |||
| Denver | Auchinachie, Cameron | 1 | ||
| Gilbert, Colin | 1 | |||
| Florida | Baqlah, Khader | 1 | 1 | |
| Finke, Bobby | 1 | |||
| Freeman, Trey | 1 | |||
| Rooney, Maxime | 2 | |||
| Sanders, Grant | 1 | |||
| Smith, Kieran | 1 | |||
| Stokowski, Kacper | 1 | |||
| Florida St | Kaleoaloha, Kanoa | 1 | ||
| Pisani, Will | 1 | |||
| Georgia | Acevedo, Javier | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Higgins, Walker | 1 | |||
| Murphy, Camden | 2 | |||
| Reed, Greg | 1 | |||
| Georgia Tech | Correia, Rodrigo | 1 | 1 | |
| Ferraro, Christian | 1 | |||
| Pumputis, Caio | 2 | 2 | ||
| Grand Canyon | Antipov, Daniil | 1 | ||
| Nikolaev, Mark | 1 | 3 | ||
| Harvard | Farris, Dean | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Gures, Umitcan | 1 | |||
| Houck, Logan | 1 | |||
| Hawaii | Kokko, Olli | 1 | ||
| Indiana | Apple, Zach | 1 | 1 | |
| Blaskovic, Bruno | 2 | |||
| Brinegar, Michael | 1 | |||
| Fantoni, Gabriel | 1 | |||
| Finnerty, Ian | 1 | |||
| Lanza, Vini | 1 | 1 | ||
| Samy, Mohamed | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Louisville | Acosta, Marcelo | 1 | ||
| Albiero, Nicolas | 1 | |||
| Harting, Zach | 1 | |||
| LSU | Luht, Karl | 1 | ||
| Michigan | Auboeck, Felix | 1 | 1 | |
| Borges, Gus | 1 | 1 | ||
| Callan, Patrick | 1 | 1 | ||
| Chan, Will | 1 | |||
| Cope, Tommy | 2 | 1 | ||
| Montague, Jacob | 1 | 1 | ||
| Smachlo, Miles | 1 | 1 | ||
| Swanson, Charlie | 2 | 1 | ||
| Vargas Jacobo, Ricardo | 2 | |||
| Minnesota | McHugh, Max | 1 | 1 | |
| Missouri | Alexander, Nick | 2 | 1 | |
| Hicks, Caleb | 1 | |||
| Lima, Giovanny | 1 | |||
| OBrien, Jordan | 2 | |||
| Schreuders, Mikel | 2 | |||
| Staver, Nick | 1 | |||
| Walton, Alex | 1 | |||
| Wielinski, Jacob | 1 | |||
| Missouri St. | Bish, Blair | 1 | ||
| Osvath, Artur | 1 | |||
| NC State | Korstanje, Nyls | 1 | ||
| Molacek, Jacob | 2 | 1 | ||
| Ress, Justin | 2 | |||
| Stewart, Coleman | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vazaios, Andreas | 3 | |||
| Notre Dame | Barta, Marci | 1 | ||
| Yeadon, Zach | 2 | |||
| Ohio St | Gaziev, Ruslan | 1 | ||
| Loy, Andrew | 1 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Helmbacher, Samy | 1 | ||
| Southern Cali | Koenigsperger, Mario | 1 | ||
| Miljenic, Nikola | 1 | |||
| Mulcare, Patrick | 1 | 1 | ||
| Sancov, Alexei | 1 | |||
| Valente, Alex | 1 | |||
| Vissering, Carsten | 1 | |||
| Stanford | Anderson, Matt | 1 | 1 | |
| Calloni, Johannes | 1 | |||
| Conaton, Patrick | 1 | |||
| DeVine, Abrahm | 1 | |||
| Hirschberger, Matthew | 1 | |||
| Levant, Jack | 2 | |||
| Liang, Alex | 1 | |||
| Murphy, James | 1 | |||
| Roy, Daniel | 1 | |||
| Sweetser, True | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tennessee | Decoursey, Kyle | 1 | ||
| Dunphy, Matthew | 1 | 1 | ||
| Garcia, Matthew | 1 | |||
| Reilman, Joey | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Texas | Artmann, Josh | 1 | ||
| Collins, Jack | 1 | |||
| Haas, Townley | 2 | |||
| Harty, Ryan | 2 | |||
| Jackson, Tate | 2 | 1 | ||
| Katz, Austin | 1 | |||
| Kibler, Drew | 2 | 2 | ||
| Koustik, Andrew | 1 | |||
| Newkirk, Jeff | 1 | 1 | ||
| Pomajevich, Sam | 1 | 1 | ||
| Sannem, Jake | 1 | |||
| Scheinfeld, Charlie | 2 | |||
| Shebat, John | 1 | 1 | ||
| Vines, Braden | 1 | |||
| Willenbring, Matthew | 1 | |||
| Yeager, Chris | 1 | |||
| Zettle, Alex | 1 | |||
| Texas A&M | Bobo, Clayton | 1 | ||
| Casas, Shaine | 2 | 1 | ||
| Martinez, Angel | 1 | |||
| Walker, Benjamin | 1 | |||
| UCSB | Hotchkiss, Logan | 1 | ||
| Tittle, Mason | 1 | |||
| Utah | Becker, Nicholas | 1 | ||
| McArthur, Daniel | 1 | |||
| Virginia | Fong, Zach | 1 | 1 | |
| Giller, Robby | 1 |
Women
| Safe In | Bubble In | Bubble Out | ||
| Akron | Nogaj, Paulina | 1 | ||
| Watson, Sarah | 1 | |||
| Alabama | McMahon, Kensey | 1 | ||
| White, Rhyan | 1 | 1 | ||
| Arizona | Bernal, Aria | 1 | ||
| Cox, Hannah | 2 | |||
| Jacobsen, Kirsten | 2 | |||
| Konopka, Katrina | 1 | 1 | ||
| Macias, Ayumi | 1 | |||
| Arizona St | Kansakoski, Silja | 1 | ||
| Nordin, Emma | 1 | |||
| Arkansas | Hopkin, Anna | 2 | ||
| Palsha, Peyton | 1 | |||
| Auburn | Falconer, Erin | 1 | ||
| Fisch, Claire | 1 | 1 | ||
| Hetzer, Emily | 2 | |||
| Nero, Bailey | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tetzloff, Alyssa | 2 | |||
| California | Bilquist, Amy | 2 | ||
| Blovad, Keaton | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Darcel, Sarah | 2 | |||
| McLaughlin, Katie | 3 | 1 | ||
| Neumann, Robin | 2 | 1 | ||
| Weitzeil, Abbey | 3 | |||
| Wilson, Alicia | 1 | |||
| Duke | Jordan, Kylie | 1 | ||
| Marsh, Alyssa | 3 | 1 | ||
| Florida | Ault, Taylor | 1 | ||
| Ball, Emma | 1 | |||
| Braswell, Leah | 2 | |||
| Dressel, Sherridon | 1 | |||
| Fertel, Kelly | 2 | |||
| Pearl, Vanessa | 3 | 1 | ||
| Zavaros, Mabel | 1 | 1 | ||
| Florida St | Hulkko, Ida | 1 | ||
| Georgia | Burchill, Veronica | 3 | ||
| Carnevale, Sofia | 1 | |||
| Carter, Olivia | 1 | 1 | ||
| Harnish, Courtney | 2 | 1 | ||
| Luther, Dakota | 1 | 1 | ||
| Hawaii | Hajkova, Karolina | 1 | ||
| Hines, Phoebe | 2 | |||
| Indiana | Andison, Bailey | 2 | 1 | |
| Jensen, Christie | 1 | 1 | ||
| Jernberg, Cassy | 1 | 1 | ||
| King, Lilly | 2 | 1 | ||
| Kovac, Bailey | 1 | |||
| Looze, Mackenzie | 1 | 1 | ||
| Morley, Laura | 1 | |||
| Peplowski, Noelle | 2 | |||
| Kentucky | Bonnett, Bailey | 1 | ||
| Edelman, Lauren | 1 | |||
| Freriks, Geena | 1 | |||
| Galyer, Ali | 1 | |||
| Gati, Izzy | 1 | |||
| Seidt, Asia | 3 | |||
| Liberty | Finnigan, Alicia | 1 | ||
| Louisville | Astashkina, Mariia | 1 | 1 | |
| Cattermole, Sophie | 1 | |||
| Comerford, Mallory | 4 | 1 | ||
| Friesen, Morgan | 2 | |||
| Kendzior, Alina | 1 | |||
| Kraus, Alena | 1 | 1 | ||
| Oglesby, Grace | 2 | 1 | ||
| Openysheva, Arina | 2 | |||
| LSU | Knight, Haylee | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Michigan | Bi, Rose | 1 | 2 | |
| DeLoof, Catie | 3 | |||
| Haughey, Siobhan | 4 | |||
| Krause, Vanessa | 1 | |||
| MacNeil, Maggie | 4 | |||
| Postoll, Becca | 1 | |||
| Schmidt, Sierra | 2 | |||
| Tucker, Miranda | 2 | 1 | ||
| Yeung, Jamie Zhen | 1 | 1 | ||
| Minnesota | Kozelsky, Lindsey | 2 | ||
| Munson, Rachel | 1 | |||
| Nack, Chantal | 2 | 1 | ||
| Padington, Mackenzie | 3 | |||
| Waddell, Tevyn | 2 | 1 | ||
| Missouri | Dahlgren, Kylie | 1 | ||
| Evensen, Courtney | 1 | |||
| Hynes, Haley | 2 | |||
| King, Jennifer | 1 | |||
| Ochitwa, Ann | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Thompson, Sarah | 1 | 1 | ||
| NC State | Alons, Kylee | 1 | ||
| Haan, Elise | 1 | |||
| Hansson, Sophie | 1 | 1 | ||
| Holub, Tamila | 1 | |||
| Jahns, Anna | 1 | |||
| Moore, Kate | 1 | |||
| Muzzy, Emma | 2 | |||
| Perry, Ky-lee | 2 | |||
| Poole, Julia | 2 | |||
| Rowe, Sirena | 1 | |||
| Sargent, Makayla | 1 | |||
| New Mexico | Palomino, Adriana | 1 | ||
| Northwestern | Sheridan, Calypso | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | Dolan, Abbie | 1 | ||
| Quast, Carly | 1 | |||
| Smith, Nikki | 1 | |||
| Stone, Lindsay | 1 | |||
| Thomas, Luciana | 1 | |||
| Treuth, Alice | 1 | |||
| Ohio St | Demler, Kathrin | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Gresser, Hanna | 1 | |||
| Kowal, Molly | 1 | |||
| Penn St | Hart, Maddie | 1 | ||
| McHugh, Ally | 3 | |||
| Purdue | Phee, Jinq En | 1 | ||
| Rutgers | Koprivova, Vera | 1 | ||
| Stoppa, Francesca | 1 | |||
| San Diego St | Vincent, Courtney | 1 | ||
| SMU | Podmanikova, Andrea | 1 | 1 | |
| South Carolina | Barksdale, Emma | 1 | 2 | |
| Southern Cali | Aroesty, Margaret | 1 | ||
| Ciesla, Marta | 2 | |||
| Hansson, Louise | 7 | 1 | ||
| Sanchez, Catherine | 1 | 1 | ||
| Scott, Riley | 2 | |||
| Tycz, Caitlin | 1 | 1 | ||
| Wade, Tatum | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wright, Maddie | 1 | 1 | ||
| Stanford | Bartel, Zoe | 1 | 1 | |
| Byrnes, Megan | 1 | 1 | ||
| Drabot, Katie | 1 | 2 | ||
| Eastin, Ella | 5 | 1 | ||
| Fackenthal, Amalie | 1 | |||
| Forde, Brooke | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Goeders, Anya | 1 | |||
| Nordmann, Lucie | 1 | |||
| Ruck, Taylor | 5 | |||
| Stevens, Leah | 1 | |||
| Szekely, Allie | 1 | 2 | ||
| Voss, Erin | 1 | |||
| Tennessee | Banic, Madeline | 1 | ||
| Brown, Erika | 4 | 1 | ||
| Cieplucha, Tess | 1 | |||
| Grinter, Bailey | 1 | |||
| Moseley, Stanzi | 1 | 3 | ||
| Nunan, Amanda | 1 | |||
| Popov, Nikol | 2 | |||
| Small, Meghan | 3 | |||
| Texas | Adams, Claire | 3 | ||
| Ariola, Grace | 3 | |||
| Carrozza, Quinn | 1 | |||
| Case, Lauren | 1 | |||
| Cook, Julia | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diener, Anelise | 1 | 1 | ||
| Evans, Joanna | 2 | |||
| Lohman, Kennedy | 1 | |||
| Pfeifer, Evie | 3 | 1 | ||
| Rule, Remedy | 2 | |||
| Texas A&M | Belousova, Anna | 2 | ||
| Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Monika | 1 | 1 | ||
| Pickrem, Sydney | 4 | 1 | ||
| Pike, Taylor | 1 | |||
| Portz, Katie | 1 | |||
| Quah, Jing | 1 | |||
| Rasmus, Claire | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Toney, Camryn | 1 | |||
| Yelle, Haley | 1 | 1 | ||
| U.S. Navy | Barber, Lauren | 2 | ||
| UNC | Countie, Grace | 1 | ||
| Villanova | Montesi, Kelly | 1 | ||
| Virginia | Christensen, Kaki | 1 | ||
| Hill, Morgan | 3 | 1 | ||
| Madden, Paige | 2 | 1 | ||
| Moroney, Megan | 1 | |||
| Virginia Tech | Vereb, Joelle | 1 | ||
| Wisconsin | Nelson, Beata | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Unicomb, Jess | 1 | |||
| Yale | Hindley, Bella | 1 | 1 |
Miki Dahlke, Harvard, 200 free. 1:44.26 Safe
And I think bubble for 100 free and 100 fly.
OldBlue – these were done before conference championship meets. We’ll have plenty of updates after the meets are finished.
Ah, got it. I saw Hindley from Yale on the list and assumed it had been updated. And I noticed after my post that there are other Ivy League bubble times as well.
Thanks for all your work on this.
No worries: Bella’s 22.17 in the 50 free from mid-season actually already had her in the ‘safe’ range, based on our estimates, but she’s obviously definitely in now after Ivies. Was a great meet, can’t wait to see what the men do this week!
Y’all don’t have Jack Saunderson on here awwwwww I’m about to get disrespectful up in this forum put some respect on my manz name
What about Bowen Becker?
Only been 19.6/42.9 this year. Has work to do.
If I was 20 years younger and didn’t work 80 hours a week now, I would be ALL OVER the math on this. Thank you for assembling this!
What about the speedy kids from other mid majors like East Carolina? A lot of fast swimming from a few of them.
They don’t currently have times that are likely to qualify for the NCAA Championshipss.
I’ve got my money on Gustavo Santos’s 100 fly: 46.19 midseason. For comparison, last year midseason he was 48.11 and went 45.89 at the end of the season…
Sounds like he’s got a 43 in him!
Swimming: the only sport where results are awarded before the races are swum, and where even after the races are finished the results are rarely accepted.
So for the combined men+women totals it looks like Cal just leads the way with 15, then Michigan, Texas and Stanford tie for 2nd @ 14.
Any Australians with a chance of qualifying?
Yes
Names if you can?
Phoebe Hines is Australian and is a contender to win the 1650.
I’d like to see a 4th column for “other” and in that column list all the swimmers who made NCAAs in the past but don’t have a swim in the first three columns and also put freshman in there who have a lifetime best time that meets a projected cut line. That way we have a more comprehensive list to stare at for the next month. It would be like a prepsych psych sheet.
You’re still missing the point. It’s not about who’s expected to make it, it’s about who has to rest for conference to make it.
You are missing my point which is that there are a ton of other bubble swimmers out there and to get a real picture of where the top teams stand if would be great to see an even more comprehensive list.
Step 1: Go to last year’s NCAA results, look at those results, remove all seniors.
Step 2: Look at the freshmen rankings this year.
https://swimswam.com/mid-season-check-in-how-are-the-ncaa-freshmen-men-faring-so-far/
https://swimswam.com/mid-season-check-in-how-are-the-ncaa-freshmen-women-faring-so-far/
That’s it, there are no more steps.
TAA — at that point should we just list the event rankings for every swimmer in the NCAA and leave it at that? I think the general understanding is that some people have qualified, some are on the bubble, and some haven’t yet. And also, I think the consensus is that conference champs will offer a lot more fast times and we’ll see people we expect, for the most part, qualify.
But the article is about who is in already and who isn’t. This is meant to be a specification on cut lines and an analysis of them — to get a ‘real picture,’ you can check the event rankings.