Lacking A True “Superhero” At Root of U.S. Struggles At Paris Olympic Games

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
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It can be spun both ways.

By several metrics, the United States swim team had a successful showing in the pool at the Olympic Games in Paris. They finished atop the medal—in gold medals and total, in case anyone’s asking.

They finished no worse than second in any of the relays, including winning three golds and setting two world records. And several swimmers performed lights out, including the likes of Torri Huske, Kate Douglass, Katie Ledecky and Bobby Finke, who all won individual gold medals.

However, there’s a flip side of the argument that says the Americans were underwhelming in Paris.

It took until the last individual event of the nine-day schedule for the U.S. men to win an individual event, with Finke soaring to a new world record in the 1500 free.

The team’s total of eight gold medals was the lowest for the Americans since the 1988 Games in Seoul, which was dominated by the East German team that was later revealed to have widespread doping. Their 28 total medals was also the lowest in two decades, matching the 2004 tally from Athens.

It was also the first time in history that American men lost the medley relay at an Olympic Games, falling to China, ending one of the most revered streaks in the sport.

The debate about whether the U.S. underperformed, or was right about where most expected them to be, can go on for hours. The thing about not only this current group of Americans, but also the rising competitiveness of the rest of the world, is that the U.S. no longer has that one swimmer that can take over and be the star.

THE SUPERSTAR IS MISSING

The 2000 Olympics in Sydney was perhaps the last time the American swim team didn’t have that one difference-maker that could change the fortune of a relay, could win multiple individual golds, and raise the level (and perception) of the entire team’s performance.

Starring Performances In Recent Olympics

• 2004 Olympics, Michael Phelps – Phelps’ first Olympics in a starring role after getting his feet wet in Sydney, he won four individual gold medals and added two more on relays, including a key lead-off leg on the U.S. men’s upset victory over the Australias in the 4×200 free relay. He also won two bronze medals. It should be noted that the American men’s team was so deep that in three of the four events he won, the silver medalist was also from the U.S., so the team’s gold medal tally wouldn’t have taken a massive hit if he wasn’t in the field. (Klete Keller was also fourth behind Phelps’ bronze in the 200 free.) The Americans finished with 12 gold and 28 total medals, with Phelps factoring into half of the golds and nearly 30% of the medals.
• 2008 Olympics, Michael Phelps – This story is well told. Phelps dominated in Beijing, winning eight gold medals and setting seven world records. Unlike Athens, the U.S. didn’t go 1-2 in any of the event Phelps won, though they had a trio of bronzes in Phelps’ events from Peter Vanderkaay (200 free) and Ryan Lochte (200/400 IM). Phelps ended up factoring in two-thirds of the gold medals won by the American team, as the women struggled with only two titles (and no relays).
• 2012 Olympics, Missy Franklin – Franklin may not have had as profound an effect on the U.S. team as Phelps (no one has), but she won two individual gold medals in London and played pivotal roles in two relay titles. In Franklin’s era of dominance, her impact was felt most one year later at the World Championships in Barcelona, where she won six gold medals, almost half of the U.S. total (13). This could’ve been the Olympics for Ryan Lochte to be the go-to guy on the men’s team, but he ended up with only one individual gold, while Phelps won two.
• 2016 Olympics, Katie Ledecky – Ledecky’s peak Olympics came in Rio. Despite there being no 1500 free contested at the 2016 Games, she won four gold medals and three individually, sweeping the women’s 200, 400 and 800 free, setting world records in the latter two. She was the primary reason why the U.S. women topped Australia in the 4×200 free relay, and we can’t forget she split 52 twice in the 400 free relay for the silver-medal-winning Americans.
• 2021 Olympics, Caeleb Dressel – Dressel was unstoppable in Tokyo, sweeping the men’s 50 free, 100 free and 100 fly and providing key legs on the victorious men’s 4×100 free and medley relays. He broke the world record in the 100 fly final, and then had the fastest fly split in history on the medley relay, which was the primary reason why the Americans beat Great Britain and broke the world record. Dressel factored in on nearly half (5/11) of the U.S. gold medals in the pool.

In 2024, that true difference maker was missing.

• Ledecky won two golds, as expected, but fell to bronze in the 400 free and is no longer a game-changer in the 4×200 free relay. Some might make the argument that the U.S. isn’t lacking a true superstar because it still has Ledecky, but her impact on the team as a whole—solely looking at results and not what she brings outside of the pool—peaked in Rio and has diminished these past two Games.
• No one expected to see Dressel on Tokyo form, but he struggled to be as fast as he was one month earlier at the U.S. Trials. He was sixth in the 50 free, missed the final of the 100 fly, and although he anchored the Americans to gold in the 4×100 free relay, he had the slowest split (with a takeover) on the U.S. team and was only fourth-fastest among anchor swimmers. Dressel added a second gold after swimming prelims of the mixed medley relay.
• Finke saved the day when he won the men’s first and only individual gold of the meet in the 1500 free, but as a distance swimmer, he doesn’t have the type of impact on the entire meet that we’re talking about. He would need that 200-1500 range, a la Ledecky 2016, to do so.
• Without racing freestyle (and thus multiple relays), it’s difficult for Regan Smith to be in the position of the team’s top star. But she had a shot at winning three individual gold medals, but ended up with three silvers. Still, she was on the world record-setting women’s medley relay and added a second gold after swimming the prelims of the mixed medley.
• The other candidates to assume this role could be Kate Douglass, Torri Huske or Gretchen Walsh. All three performed well in Paris, particularly Douglass and Huske, who claimed individual gold for the first time. Douglass’ range is incredible—who else can do the 50 free and 200 breast?—but due to a scheduling conflict she only raced two individual events (she’s fast enough to challenge for a medal in up to four). Huske and Walsh race similar events—Huske emerged atop the stacked field in the 100 fly, with Walsh second, and also snagged a silver in the 100 free. All three contributed on the 4×100 free relay and Walsh and Huske were on the world record-setting medley. Each might have an argument about being the best or fastest in the world in one event, but don’t have two, three or four races where they’re consistently threatening the podium.

THE U.S. IS NO LONGER A STEP AHEAD

It’s not just the lack of star power on the U.S. squad that’s holding them back, it’s also because of how fast everyone else is swimming.

The rest of the world has caught up, and although they may not have as much depth at their national Trials, several countries have a high-end that can go blow for blow with the Americans in many events.

Australia is in a prime era, perhaps its best since the Ian Thorpe days, with stars like Mollie O’Callaghan, Ariarne Titmus and Kaylee McKeown driving the bus. Summer McIntosh is here to stay for the Canadians, and on the men’s side, the Europeans continue to take over, led by Leon Marchand.

The Americans may never dominate the medal table like years past, and it’s the missing of a Phelps, a peak Ledecky, Franklin, or even Lochte, that’s the difference.