All Change In Indy? A U.S. Nationals Finals Continuity Review

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• Tuesday, June 3 – Saturday, June 7, 2025
• Indianapolis, Indiana
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50 meters)
• World Championship Selection Criteria
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheets (Updated 6/02)
• Live Results

Prior to the championships we examined the turnover in the finals of each Trials/U.S. Nationals since 2013. With several stars sitting out this year after the shortened Olympic Cycle between Tokyo and Paris it was expected that there would be new faces in the top eight of a lot of events in 2025, and that did prove to be the case.

We’re looking at only Olympic events here, so this is a straight comparison to 2024.

NB. The 800 and 1500 were run as timed finals this year in contrast to the heats-and-finals setup last year. When we refer to 2025 finalists in these events we’re talking about the top-eight finishers, even though some came from the early heats.

The Methodology

To compare the continuity of Trials finals, we have devised a Finals Continuity Score. Each swimmer in a Trials final receives a score based on their finishing position in that event. At the next Trials, we add up the scores of the returning swimmers and divide by the maximum possible score (all swimmers returning).

Example:

2021 Women’s 200 IM

1. Alex Walsh- 8 points
2. Kate Douglass- 7 points
3. Madisyn Cox – 6 points
4. Torri Huske – 5 points
5. Meghan Small – 4 points
6. Melanie Margalis- 3 points
7. Beata Nelson- 2 points
8. Emma Barksdale – 1 point

2022 Women’s 200 IM

1. Alex Walsh – 8 returning points
2. Leah Hayes – NEW
3. Beata Nelson  – 2 returning points
4. Mackenzie Looze – NEW
5. Isabelle Odgers – NEW
6. Sara Stotler – NEW
7. Abby Hay – NEW
8. Teagan O’Dell – NEW

Total returning points: 10

Maximum possible returning points: 36

Final Continuity Score – 0.278 (10/36)

Note that this methodology does not look at why a swimmer does not return – someone missing the final in 9th is treated the same way as a swimmer who did not enter the event, such as Kate Douglass in the example above.

How did 2025 fare?

The men saw their biggest turnover of finalists in over a decade, with an average continuity score of less than 0.50 – nearly 20% less than the previous lowest in 2021. This was also a huge drop in returning finalists compared to last year, caused both by big names sitting out (Ryan Murphy, Caeleb Dressel, Hunter Armstrong) and others missing finals they were expected to be in (Brooks Curry, Matt King).

The women fared slightly better, only dropping to 0.554, however that is still the lowest since 2017. Most of the big names returned, which was reflected in the size of the World’s squad; 20 different women hit one of the four World Championship priorities compared to 27 men.

By Event

Outside of breaststroke, the 200s were the most continuous distance at this year’s Championships. The 200 IM saw five of the eight finalists from Olympic Trials return including all of the top three, joint most of any event along with the 200 fly.

Despite the comparatively high score for the 200 free, only three finalists returned; Luke Hobson (1st in 2024), Chris Guiliano (2nd) and Kieran Smith (4th). That’s one fewer than the 100 backstroke (Jack Aikins, Will Modglin, Jack Wilkening, Tommy Janton), where three of the four returners finished 6th-8th last year.

Half of the events had only two returning finalists from 2024 – that was every event from the 1500 downwards, excluding the 100 back.

The scores were much higher for the women, which saw only three events (200 breast, 1500 free, 400 free) have two returners compared to the seven the men had. Backstroke was the highest scoring stroke with both distances in the top two, each with six returning swimmers.

Katie Ledecky ensured a level of consistency in the 400 and 1500 free, with only a single swimmer returning other than her: Kate Hurst in the 1500 and Madi Mintenko in the 400. Interestingly, both of those finished in the same position in both 2024 and 2025, fourth for Hurst and eighth for Mintenko.

At least half the finalists returned for nine of 14 events, with 10 events scoring at least 0.50. The 100 free was the highest scoring event with only exactly half the final to return – those were last year’s top four of Kate Douglass, Torri Huske, Gretchen Walsh and Simone Manuel, who took the top four spots once again in 2025, albeit in a different order.