2024 W NCAA Previews: It’s Rodeo Season for the Texas 200 Fly Group

2024 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 20-23, 2024
• Gabrielsen Natatorium, Athens, Georgia
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
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Women’s 200 Fly

• U.S. Open Record: 1:48.33 — Regan Smith, Sun Devil Aquatics (2023)
• American Record: 1:48.33 — Regan Smith, Sun Devil Aquatics (2023)
• NCAA Record: 1:49.16 — Alex Walsh, Virginia (2024)
• 2023 NCAA Champion: Emma Sticklen, Texas – 1:49.95

If the Virginia women do what the Virginia women have done at NCAAs the last few years, which is “show up,” then they’re going to do what they’ve done at NCAAs the last few years, which is “win.”

But if they don’t, if they have a stumble or an injury or the Texas divers go ham, and the Longhorns are within striking distance, then the 200 fly, the last individual swimming event of the meet, will leave one last bullet in their chamber to surge toward the Cavaliers.

The Longhorns have three of the four top seeds in this race going into the meet, including the defending NCAA Champion and NCAA Championship Record holder Emma Sticklen.

Sticklen last year swam 1:49.95 for the win, making her the 6th woman in history to go under the 1:50 mark in the event.

At this year’s meet, she’s going to be without her biggest competitor, the ACC Champion Alex Walsh. Last year’s runner-up and the fastest in the NCAA this season (1:49.16), Walsh will race the 200 breaststroke instead – where she’s more of a sure-fire favorite for gold.

For the senior Sticklen, then, on paper, her biggest competitor is her 5th-year teammate Kelly Pash. Indicative of a veteran-heavy race (the top five are all seniors or 5th years), Pash’s best time this season of 1:51.22 actually came at the pre-conference Sterkel Classic. She was 1:51.66 at Big 12s.

She didn’t race this event at Big 12s last year, but was slower at NCAAs than she was at Jill Sterkel. If she can reverse that trend this season, she’s the likely contender here.

It was a different sort of year for Pash, starting her season at the Pan American Games where she won bronze in this event. We’ll see how that impacts her – with bigger quests ahead for this summer, including a shot at the second spot in the 200 fly at the US Olympic Trials.

The other Longhorn leader is senior Olivia Bray, who is the 4th seed in 1:51.81, also from February’s Sterkel Classic. Last season, she swam the 200 back on the final day of the meet, finishing 7th, but this year she has split focus (she swam the backstroke races at Big 12s) and ultimately landed on this 200 fly as her day 4 individual event.

Texas also has two other qualifiers, freshmen Angela Coe (38th – 1:55.96) and Campbell Stoll (39th – 1:55.98).

While on paper, this race looks like a rodeo, there are plenty of potential spoilers with international-level experience lurking.

That includes Cal 5th-year Rachel Klinker. Part of the resurgence of the Cal women this season under new coaching, Klinker raced at the World Championships shortly before the conference meet, finishing 4th in the 200 fly and knocking more than two seconds off her previous best time.

She came back for Pac-12s two weeks later and swam a lifetime best in yards of 1:51.74.

She has huge momentum right now, and her team has huge momentum right now. The question-mark here is how much she has left in the tank after two big championship swims back-to-back in February. Given Dave Durden’s Olympic year philosophy about prioritizing long course over short course, it feels like maybe Worlds was her best shot for this season, but if not, something special could be lined up for Athens next week.

Other swimmers with big-time international experience include her teammate Lea Polonsky (11th seed – 1:53.89), who reached the semifinals of the 200 IM at the 2022 World Aquatics Championships; Lindsay Looney of Arizona State (5th seed – 1:52.14), who was 8th in the 200 fly at the 2023 World Aquatics Championships; and Charlotte Hook of Stanford (9th seed – 1:53.23), who won silver in the 200 fly at the 2021 World Short Course Swimming Championships.

Of that group, Looney (4th) and Hook (6th) were NCAA Championship finalists last season, while Polonsky was 22nd and missed scoring in this event. Polonsky, on the other hand, has made the most progress in the event this season – her 1:53.89 from the Cal-Stanford dual meet in February is almost a second better than she was at NCAAs last season.

To this point, the Virginia 200 butterfly potential has really been overlooked because of Texas’ strength here. But that doesn’t mean that the Cavaliers don’t have any defenses in this race. Senior Abby Harter was 7th at NCAAs last year in 1:53.56 and is the 16th seed coming into this year’s meet. She dropped more than a second from her season-best time at that meet. She was 3rd at ACCs this year, and will probably need an even bigger drop to return to the top 8 this season in a crowded field.

Seeded one slot behind her is teammate Tess Howley, a member of last year’s National Team. Her only best time in college so far is in the 100 back (52.76), but her lifetime best of 1:52.76 in the 200 yard fly from December 2021 when she was only 16 is a sign of her ceiling in this race.

The Stanford women also have a pile of talent in this race. Former US National Team member Lillie Nordmann is the 6th seed in 1:52.38. Some injuries have slowed her career progression, but a new personal best for 3rd place at Pac-12s sets her up nicely for a good last season-plus of her collegiate career. Her teammate Lucy Bell was 1:52.62, a best time, at the team’s January dual meet against USC and then appeared to be in a heavy training load through Pac-12s, finishing 7th in 1:54.75 – more than two seconds slower.

While the race is heavy on seniors, there are a couple of well-seeded freshman. Two, to be specific, in the top 25. Besides the aforementioned Howley, Michigan freshman Hannah Bellard has been one of the better performers for the Wolverines in their first year under a new coaching staff. She swam 1:53.21 at the Georgia Fall Invitational in November, which was .01 seconds shy of her best high school time.

She then swam full-through Big Tens, still placing 3rd in 1:55.72, and seems to be fully wound-up for a run in March. It’s the old Frank Busch/University of Arizona season-plan that we don’t see very often anymore. Sometimes that strategy works, sometimes it doesn’t.

Besides Walsh, another notable name missing from this year’s field is NC State senior Abby Arens. Arens was a very good breaststroker in high school and, after focusing on other events for most of her college career, returned to her roots this season – if for no other reason out of necessity for the Wolfpack.

That includes swapping the 200 fly for the 200 breast at NCAAs. She was 14th last year, and is the 16th seed in the 200 breast this year.

Tennessee’s Sara Stotler was 10th at NCAAs last year and is the 20th seed this year. She dropped some time at NCAAs last season, so look for her to rise up into the points again this year. The same is true for Florida State junior Edith Jernstedt, who is the 19th seed this season after placing 13th at NCAAs last year.

Two others to watch out for are Michigan’s Katelyn Crom (14th seed – 1:54.61) and Duke’s Martina Peroni (12th seed – 1:54.00). Both entered NCAAs last season with 1:53s, and both added a lot of time to finish out of the points (it took 1:55.18 to finish top 16 in prelims last season).

This year, neither has been under 1:54. Could be a sign that they’re trying to reverse that trend?

Another swimmer trying to reverse the trend of “adding” is Arizona’s Julia Heimstead, the 13th seed (1:54.57). Last year she entered the meet with a 1:55.57 and finished in 1:56.69. She did switch her day 3 event from the 200 free to 100 fly, so she’ll have a few less yards coming into this race this season, and Arizona is again without qualified relays.

One of the best breakout stories of the NCAA so far this season is Heidi Smithwick of Princeton. A sophomore, she was 1:59.67 in the 200 fly at her first Ivy League Championships last year, which was slower than her lifetime best coming into college.

Then she swam a best time of 1:59.06 in a tri meet against Brown and Dartmouth, 1:58.03 two weeks later, 1:56.64 mid-season, and 1:54.62 at Ivies. I don’t know how much someone can drop in one season, but definitely notice her for next year, where she’ll enter the year with big expectations on her shoulders.

Another A-final contender on a similar trajectory is South Carolina sophomore Greta Pelzek. She swam 1:55.99/1:56.42 at SECs last year, and this year dropped all the way to 1:53.43, which was good for 2nd place.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Darkhorse: Betsy Wizard, sophomore, Arkansas – Wizard’s lifetime best in the 200 fly is a 1:54.33 from a fall dual meet in 2022, her freshman season. She was 1:54.9 mid-season this year, but I think she has a puncher’s chance of moving up from her 22nd seed and sneaking into the top 8 in heats – if that dual meet time is as impactful as it seems to be.