2024 Olympic Games: Ranking Events By Podium Predictability (Women’s Edition)

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
• SwimSwam Preview Index

We’re just over a week away from the start of the Paris Olympics and anticipation is rising for the swimming competition slated for nine days of action at La Défense Arena.

As we thoroughly preview each event in our separate event previews, this article will show the predictability of each event on the women’s side based on the podium. What podiums look obvious and what events are more up in the air?

Barring Upset, This Is The Podium

• Women’s 200 freestyle – With Summer McIntosh dropping out, there’s a clear podium picture in the women’s 200 free with Ariarne Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan and Siobhan Haughey. Including McIntosh, these four broke 1:54 in the final at the 2023 World Championships, and no one else was sub-1:55.5.

Four Fighting It Out For Three Medals

• Women’s 400 freestyle – Titmus is the big favorite to defend in the 400 free after she dominated at the 2023 World Championships. The highly anticipated showdown between Titmus, McIntosh and Katie Ledecky turned into an exhibition for Titmus, who broke McIntosh’s world record and cruised to gold. In Fukuoka, Ledecky was the distant silver medalist, and Erika Fairweather upended McIntosh for the other step on the podium. No one’s discounting Fairweather’s ability to disrupt the Big Three this time around.
• Women’s 100 backstroke – It’s Regan Smith versus Kaylee McKeown for gold, with another world record likely coming, and Kylie Masse will go head-to-head with Katharine Berkoff for bronze after they both broke 58 seconds at their respective National Trials.
• Women’s 200 backstroke – Another Smith and McKeown showdown and Masse racing an American for bronze. This time it’s Phoebe Bacon. This one is a little less set in stone than in the 100 back in terms of the top four, with China’s Peng Xuwei also seeded in the 2:06s—but she hasn’t been under 2:07.5 this year.
• Women’s 200 breaststroke – This race almost made it into the first category. Defending champion Tatjana Smith and American Kate Douglass are the favorites to battle for gold, having both broken 2:20 multiple times this year, and Tes Schouten won the 2024 world title in a PB of 2:19.81. The only reason this podium isn’t solidified is Schouten’s second-fastest swim ever is 2:21.43, so she’s yet to show she can go 2:19, or even 2:20, consistently. That makes 2022 world champion Lilly King a podium contender—she’s broken 2:20 before and has been 2:21.93 this year.
• Women’s 100 butterfly – Four of the five fastest women ever will go to battle: Gretchen Walsh, Torri Huske, Maggie MacNeil and Zhang Yufei. The seventh-fastest ever, Emma McKeon, is also there but hasn’t been on her best form this year.
• Women’s 200 butterfly – It’s McIntosh, Smith and Zhang in the driver’s seat here, but Australia’s Elizabeth Dekkers won silver at the 2023 Worlds and has been 2:05 numerous times.
• Women’s 200 IM – The race everyone is clamoring to see. It’s McIntosh, Douglass, McKeown and Alex Walsh, but the order, and who misses a medal, is up in the air.
• Women’s 400 free relay – It’s Australia at the top, and then the United States, and then Canada and China in the bronze battle. Canada was way off last year at Worlds but should be able to be 3:33 flat or better.
• Women’s 800 free relay – It might be optimistic to suggest the Canadians can challenge for a podium spot after they were five seconds back of third-place China in Fukuoka, but Mary-Sophie Harvey‘s emergence gives them some hope. If they get two 1:58-flats on the back end, the Canadians could be under 7:45, and China’s always a bit of a wildcard. Australia is firmly entrenched at the top, followed by the Americans.
• Women’s 400 medley relay – Essentially the same scenario as the free relays except the U.S. is at the top and the Australians are in second. Canada has the potential to challenge for silver, but will more likely be fending off China for bronze.

The Winner Is Clear. The Rest?

• Women’s 50 freestyle – It seems odd for the 50 free to be one of the races where the winner is almost a slam dunk, but Sarah Sjostrom‘s recent dominance is otherworldly. The other medalists could come from anywhere. Kasia Wasick and Shayna Jack are the other sub-24 seeds, and then Gretchen Walsh, Simone Manuel, Zhang Yufei, Wu Qingfeng and Meg Harris are all sub-24.3.
• Women’s 800 freestyle – Katie Ledecky should win comfortably, and then it’s Titmus and Li Bingjie leading the way amongst the rest, though Lani Pallister, Simona Quadarella, Isabel Gose, and maybe even Erika Fairweather or Paige Madden, could battle their way into the podium picture.
• Women’s 1500 freestyle – A very similar situation to the 800, with Ledecky at the top, followed by Quadarella, Li, Anastasiia Kirpichnikova and Pallister seeded under 15:50. We also cannot discount Katie Grimes, who has been as fast as 15:44.

Chaos Pending

• Women’s 100 freestyle – There’s a clear top two here with O’Callaghan and Haughey, but there’s no bonafide bronze medal favorite. Sjostrom, Marrit Steenbergen and Jack are all seeded at 52.2, and then Yang Junxuan and Huske are also under 53 seconds. Let’s also watch out for Gretchen Walsh.
• Women’s 100 breaststroke – This event has proven to be unpredictable on the big stage in recent years, including 1:05.9 winning the 2022 world title and 1:05.8 being good enough for silver in 2023 (both relatively slow times). There are three 1:04s on the entry list, but the only one from 2024 is China’s Tang Qianting. Ruta Meilutyte still has to be the favorite after demolishing the field in Fukuoka, but we can’t look past world record holder Lilly King, Olympic Record holder Tatjana Smith, and really any number of others if this field ends up being slow again and 1:05-mid is good enough for the podium.
• Women’s 400 IM – An odd event to include in the chaos section given we know McIntosh could add six seconds and still win. Grimes is the favorite for silver, having finished in that position behind McIntosh at both the 2022 and 2023 Worlds, and then although bronze looks like its Jenna Forrester‘s based on the entry times, this year’s rankings say something different. Freya Colbert, Anastasia Gorbenko, Vivien Jackl, Mio Narita, Emma Weyant and Ageha Tanigawa have all been 4:35 or better this year, while Forrester has only been 4:38.16. She was 4:32 last year, but her form at the Australian Trials makes the bronze medal up for grabs.