2024 NCAA Men’s Championships: Day 2 Scoring Analysis

2024 Men’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

It’s been a whirlwind of a two days already in Indianapolis. We’ve seen mind-bogglingly fast swimming with NCAA, meet, American, pool, and school records falling by the wayside.

Arizona State’s depth and breadth were on display on Thursday, as the Sun Devils scored 133 points to leapfrog Cal (99 points for Day 2) and Florida (91 points). While their most impressive win of the night belonged to Leon Marchand, who swam an other-worldly 4:02.31 to win the 500 free, the Sun Devils scored the most points in the 200 IM where they had 3 A finalists. Arizona State is projected to win by 62.5 points, unless there are significant shifts in points from diving, with Florida clearing Cal by 110 points to earn silver. Cal made significant inroads on Florida’s margin, scoring 41 more points than their seedings.

Further down the ladder, there is a fierce battle going on for 4th through 10th places, with NC State, Indiana, Tennessee, Stanford, Texas, Virginia Tech, and Georgia all having legitimate shots at the top rung. Texas and Indiana were up 19 and 17 points, respectively, for the day, while SMU picked up an extra 22 points with finalists in the 500 free and 200 IM. Indiana, notably, got a big boost from diving.

Day 2 Performers Relative to Seed

Team Score Relative to Seed
Cal 41
SMU 22
Texas 19
Indiana 17
Auburn 12
Florida 9
Michigan 9
Ohio State 7
Louisville 6
LSU 6
Alabama 5
Miami (FL) 1
Missouri 1
Texas A&M -1
BYU -1
Georgia -2
Purdue -2
Florida State -4
Minnesota -5
Tennessee -6
Arizona State -6.5
Notre Dame -6.5
Virginia Tech -9
Arizona -10
NC State -12
Stanford -12
Virginia -34
Wisconsin -44

Over/Under 500 Free

Team Psych Prelims Finals Difference vs Seed
Arizona State 41 25 27 -14
Cal 15 15 15 0
Florida 16 10 16 0
Indiana 0 5 3 3
Texas 6 30 29 23
NC State 0 2 1 1
Tennessee 0 0 0 0
Stanford 7 0 0 -7
Auburn 14 13 11 -3
Virginia Tech 0 0 0 0
Georgia 21 20 16 -5
Michigan 0 0 0 0
Ohio State 0 3 4 4
Notre Dame 0 0 0 0
Louisville 0 0 0 0
Alabama 9 12 14 5
SMU 0 11 13 13
Texas A&M 0 0 0 0
Florida State 2 0 0 -2
Missouri 0 0 0 0
Minnesota 11 9 6 -5
Arizona 0 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 0 0 0 0
Virginia 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin 13 0 0 -13
LSU 0 0 0 0
Purdue 0 0 0 0
BYU 0 0 0 0
North Carolina 0 0 0 0

Over/Under 200 IM

Team Psych Prelims Finals Difference vs Seed
Arizona State 43 43.5 46 3
Cal 16 20 20 4
Florida 1 4 6 5
Indiana 2 3 7 5
Texas 24 11 12 -12
NC State 17 19.5 16 -1
Tennessee 0 0 0 0
Stanford 12 9 5 -7
Auburn 0 0 0 0
Virginia Tech 7 0 0 -7
Georgia 0 0 0 0
Michigan 15 23 16 1
Ohio State 0 0 0 0
Notre Dame 0 0 0 0
Louisville 0 0 0 0
Alabama 0 0 0 0
SMU 0 2 9 9
Texas A&M 9 13 11 2
Florida State 0 0 0 0
Missouri 0 0 0 0
Minnesota 0 0 0 0
Arizona 0 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 0 0 0 0
Virginia 5 6 4 -1
Wisconsin 0 0 0 0
LSU 0 0 0 0
Purdue 0 0 0 0
BYU 4 1 3 -1
North Carolina 0 0 0 0

Over/Under 50 Free

Team Psych Prelims Finals Difference vs Seed
Arizona State 23.5 29 28 4.5
Cal 5 30 30 25
Florida 24 24 26 2
Indiana 0 0 0 0
Texas 0 0 0 0
NC State 9 5 1 -8
Tennessee 34 26 30 -4
Stanford 0 0 0 0
Auburn 1 0 0 -1
Virginia Tech 11 6 9 -2
Georgia 0 2 3 3
Michigan 0 0 0 0
Ohio State 0 0 0 0
Notre Dame 22.5 17 15 -7.5
Louisville 0 0 0 0
Alabama 0 0 0 0
SMU 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M 0 0 0 0
Florida State 0 0 0 0
Missouri 0 0 0 0
Minnesota 0 0 0 0
Arizona 0 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 0 0 0 0
Virginia 13 0 0 -13
Wisconsin 12 9 7 -5
LSU 0 7 6 6
Purdue 0 0 0 0
BYU 0 0 0 0
North Carolina 0 0 0 0

Over/Under 1M Diving

Team Prelims Finals Difference
Arizona State 0 0 0
Cal 0 0 0
Florida 1 3 2
Indiana 34 33 -1
Texas 7 15 8
NC State 0 0 0
Tennessee 0 0 0
Stanford 17 15 -2
Auburn 0 0 0
Virginia Tech 0 0 0
Georgia 0 0 0
Michigan 0 0 0
Ohio State 29 32 3
Notre Dame 5 2 -3
Louisville 0 0 0
Alabama 0 0 0
SMU 0 0 0
Texas A&M 9 4 -5
Florida State 0 0 0
Missouri 6 7 1
Minnesota 11 11 0
Arizona 15 13 -2
Miami (FL) 14 15 1
Virginia 0 0 0
Wisconsin 0 0 0
LSU 0 0 0
Purdue 7 5 -2
BYU 0 0 0
North Carolina 0 0 0

Over/Under 200 Free Relay

Team Psych Finals Difference vs Seed
Arizona State 32 32 0
Cal 22 34 12
Florida 40 40 0
Indiana 2 12 10
Texas 0 0 0
NC State 34 30 -4
Tennessee 30 28 -2
Stanford 14 18 4
Auburn 10 26 16
Virginia Tech 24 24 0
Georgia 4 4 0
Michigan 6 14 8
Ohio State 0 0 0
Notre Dame 18 22 4
Louisville 0 6 6
Alabama 0 0 0
SMU 0 0 0
Texas A&M 0 2 2
Florida State 12 10 -2
Missouri 0 0 0
Minnesota 0 0 0
Arizona 8 0 -8
Miami (FL) 0 0 0
Virginia 28 8 -20
Wisconsin 26 0 -26
LSU 0 0 0
Purdue 0 0 0
BYU 0 0 0
North Carolina 0 0 0

Team Projections After Day 2 (without Day 3, Day 4 diving)

Team Day 1 Actual Day 2 Actual Day 3 Psych Day 4 Psych Projected Score Vs Psych
Arizona State 68 133 138.5 180 519.5 -18.5
Florida 70 91 170 126 457 11
Cal 70 99 89 89 347 49
NC State 50 48 76 87 261 -14
Indiana 52 55 64 78 249 21
Tennessee 28 58 58.5 72 216.5 -8
Stanford 46 38 62 34 180 -2
Texas 50 56 42.5 24 172.5 33
Virginia Tech 28 33 57 51 169 -7
Georgia 34 23 56 50 163 -10
Notre Dame 0 39 35.5 58 132.5 -14.5
Auburn 30 37 22.5 29 118.5 2
Michigan 18 30 34 36 118 15
Ohio State 6 36 9 28 79 3
Alabama 12 14 22.5 22 70.5 3
Texas A&M 4 17 34 15 70 3
Louisville 24 6 24 12 66 4
Virginia 0 12 28.5 4 44.5 -34
SMU 4 22 6 9 41 24
Florida State 10 10 14 0 34 6
Missouri 12 7 5 5 29 13
Minnesota 0 17 0 6 23 -5
BYU 0 3 9 4 16 -1
Miami (FL) 0 15 0 0 15 1
Arizona 2 13 0 0 15 -22
LSU 0 6 0 2 8 4
Wisconsin 0 7 0 0 7 -44
Purdue 0 5 0 0 5 -2
North Carolina 2 0 0 0 2 2

 

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tallswimmer
7 months ago

Badgers were so on at B1G’s, some dropoff was inevitable but this….🤮

CELL
7 months ago

As a Cal fan I’m just worried, they are spread so thin yes they are winning but it doesn’t matter if Destin is 1st if ASU has 3 over guys in the A final.

We may be cooked

Andrew
Reply to  CELL
7 months ago

This is what happens with no Hugo and when Durden can’t develop any freshman. The 7 1.00 power index guys cal recruited are expected to score, 1 went home after a terrible mid season, 1 added 5 seconds in the 500, and none others even worth mentioning

Facts
Reply to  CELL
7 months ago

Sorry Cell, but Cal is in fact losing. Every dynasty must one day fall.

Greg
Reply to  Facts
7 months ago

Cell meant they are winning events, not winning the meet.

Violet Bobcat Torch
7 months ago

I love this stuff! Nothing better than digging into the numbers in between sessions. I don’t think ASU will drop the title but tomorrow is Florida’s chance to make things interesting!

About Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant is the mother of four daughters, all of whom swam in college. With an undergraduate degree from Princeton (where she was an all-Ivy tennis player) and an MBA from INSEAD, she worked for many years in the financial industry, both in France and the U.S. Anne is currently …

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