2024 M. NCAA Previews: Chaos Reigns In the 100 Breaststroke

2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 27-30, 2024
• IUPUI Natatorium, Indianapolis, Indiana
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Meet Central
• Official Psych Sheets
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• SwimSwam Pick ‘Ems Contest
• Live Results

Men’s 100 Breaststroke

• U.S. Open Record: 49.69 — Ian Finnerty, Indiana (2018)
• American Record: 49.69 — Ian Finnerty, Indiana (2018)
• NCAA Record: 49.69 — Ian Finnerty, Indiana (2018)
• 2023 NCAA Champion: Max McHugh, Minnesota — 50.00

It’s a wild, wild world in the men’s 100 breaststroke this season. Here’s what the 2023 championship final looked like:

1. Max McHugh (Minnesota), 50.00 — Graduated
2. Van Mathias (Indiana), 50.60 — Graduated
3. Denis Petrashov (Louisville), 50.78 — Entered
4. Caspar Corbeau (Texas), 50.79 — Graduated
5. Dillon Hillis (Florida), 50.80 — Graduated
6. Liam Bell (California), 50.88 — Entered
7. Reece Whitley (California), 51.04 — Graduated
8. Derek Maas (Alabama), 51.23 — Fifth-Year in Division III

So, the majority of the ‘A’ final is gone, as are three more from the ‘B’ final. That means we’ve lost more than half the 2023 finalists in the 100 breaststroke. This information isn’t new to swim fans. In October, 45.4% of voters picked this event as the most wide open NCAA race.

And of the course of the season, no one’s really separated themselves from the field as a favorite. Two swimmers are tied at the top of the psych sheet. First seed through 29th is separated by a second. This race isn’t one that’s exciting because we’re going to be on record watch–Ian Finnerty‘s records seem safe–but because it truly is anyone’s race. There are a multitude of swimmers you could make a coherent case for winning the title. We’ve done our best to sift through the chaos, but as always, feel free to leave your polite thoughts in the comments below.

And Then There Were Two

After the mass exodus of 2023 100 breaststroke ‘A’ finalists was over, we were left with two still racing in the league: Liam Bell (California) and Denis Petrashov (Louisville).

On paper, Bell has the slight advantage over the rest of this field. Not only is he tied for the first overall seed, but he’s got the fastest lifetime best in the field–a 50.50 from 2022 that makes him the 7th fastest performer all-time, per USA Swimming.

Denis Petrashov (photo: Jack Spitser)

In the absence of Cal’s biggest stars at the last PAC-12, Bell was one of the Golden Bears that got to shine. In his fifth-year he won his first conference title in a season-best 50.89. That’s the first time he’s gone sub-51 seconds at a non-NCAA Championship.

In 2023, Bell swam a season-best 50.76 in prelims before adding time and finishing 6th (50.88). His highest finish is 3rd from 2022, but the opportunity is there for Bell to add to his PAC-12 title and check off another “first” in his career: a national title.

Petrashov, last year’s 3rd place finisher, is the only other returning 2023 ‘A’ finalist. He swam his personal best in that championship final, posting a 50.78 to out-touch Caspar Corbeau by a hundredth. That capped off a huge year for Petrashov, who started the season with a 51.92 personal best from 2022 NCAAs.

Now a fifth-year, yet to break 51 seconds this season, but he was faster at this year’s ACCs (51.10) than he was last year (51.26). It’s not going to take an NCAA record to win this event so if Petrashov replicates last year’s improvement from ACCs to NCAAs, he’ll have as good a chance to win as the other top contenders in this field.

More Pre-Season Champion Predictions

When SwimSwam writers filled out their 2024 pre-season NCAA championship picks, the men’s 100 breast was the one we were most divided on. There were five different champions picked, including Bell and Petrashov. Nine writers filled in ballots and no swimmer got the majority of the votes, but the one who came closest was Josh Matheny, who earned four votes.

Josh Matheny (photo: Jack Spitser)

The Indiana junior had a breakout summer. A year after breaking 1:00 in the 100-meter breaststroke, Matheny earned a spot on his first senior international team by qualifying for 2023 Worlds in the 100/200 breaststroke. He went on to make the World Championship final in both events. He got 7th in the 100 breaststroke after logging a 59.20 lifetime best in semifinals that makes him the 9th fastest American in the event.

Matheny’s best 100/200 breast times in yards are still from last year’s NCAAs, where he swam 50.99/1:50.12. He’s yet to see the drops from long-course translate to yards, but that could be coming this week. Or maybe not–another factor for Matheny to consider is that his strength lies in meters, not yards. It’s an Olympic year, and Matheny is one of the younger swimmers looking to become the U.S’s next go-to breaststroker on the international stage.

This is not to say that Matheny won’t show up at NCAAs ready to race, isn’t capable of being in the championship final, or winning. He is; he won last year’s ‘B’ final, which makes him one of the top candidates to make the jump to the ‘A’ final despite being seeded 23rd (51.69). But Olympic years are strange and each swimmer has to prioritize. Even if Matheny makes the ‘A’ final and swims a lifetime best, it may not be enough to earn the title.

Matheny isn’t the only Hoosier to watch in this race. They were upset in the 100 breast at Big-Tens (more on that later) but Indiana’s got a dangerous breaststroke group that runs deep. Matheny was Indiana’s sole scorer last year but Finlay Brooks (14th, 51.30), Jasson Yep (17th, 51.49), and Maxwell Reich (26th, 51.87) aim to change that.

So we’ve got Matheny (4 votes), Petrashov (2 votes), and Bell (1 vote) all predicted to win the 2024 100 breast title. The other two swimmers also receiving votes were Noah Nichols (1 vote) and Aleksas Savickas (1 vote).

As a junior, Nichols dropped half a second for a lifetime best and then-ACC record 50.82 at 2023 ACCs. The Virginia men misfired at 2023 NCAAs and Nichols was not immune from that; he added time, clocking 51.67 and missing out on a second swim by .01.

Noah Nichols (photo: Jack Spitser)

But Nichols has bounced back well this season from that disappointment. He just missed his lifetime best at 2024 ACCs, winning the 100 breast conference crown in 50.89. That swim ties him with Bell for the top overall seed heading into the meet. Getting so close to his lifetime best at conference should give Nichols a lot of confidence heading into this race and could be a sign that he’s got a big swim in store.

In his freshman year, Savickas burst onto the 100 breast scene. He arrived in Gainesville from Lithuania with a converted best time of 53.30 (59.27 pre-college SCM best) and improved to 50.73 during prelims of 2023 SECs. Since that swim, he hasn’t been back under 51 seconds. He added time in finals (51.07), then added more time at NCAAs. He arrived in Minneapolis as the top seed, but ended up finishing 13th (51.44).

That slide through the 2023 postseason is a reason to hedge your bets with Savickas, but it isn’t all bad news. He did almost get back under 51 seconds at last month’s SECs, earning the conference title in 51.01. Last year was a lesson for Savickas and with another year of experience under his belt, he’ll hopefully be able to trend upwards this season. If he does that, he should secure a lane in the ‘A’ final.

Looking to Upgrade

In addition to Matheny, last year’s ‘B’ final winner, there are plenty of others hoping to make the jump to the championship final this year.

Brian Benzing is no stranger to the ‘B’ final–he’s made it the last two seasons–and he’s one of the swimmers with the best chances to upgrade. Benzing, a senior at Towson, is the fastest mid-major swimmer in the history of the event, courtesy of the 51.25 he swam at the 2023 CAA Championships.

Brian Benzing (photo: Jack Spitser)

This season, Benzing’s been within .05 seconds of that time; he won the CAA title in 51.30. He’s swum bests in five other events this season and will be looking to make it six later this week as he swims one final meet in a Towson cap (he’s doing his fifth-year at Indiana). Last season, it took 51.12 to make the ‘A’ final. Given how many of last year’s championship finalists departed that time may go up but either way, Benzing will need to be right at his best to make the big heat.

That sentiment also applies to 2023 ‘B’ finalists Ron Polonsky and Julian Smith. Polonsky swam a lifetime best 51.14 in prelims of 2023 NCAAs, missing the ‘A’ final by two-hundredths. Polonsky was Stanford’s best individual scorer in Minneapolis, so it was a blow when he skipped the fall term this year. It was unclear whether he’d return to the NCAA roster but that’s what he did. At PAC-12s, he was just three-hundredths off his personal best as he took 2nd behind Bell.

Smith shaved eight-hundredths off his personal best at 2024 SECs, tying Alex Sanchez for 2nd. Smith clocked 51.26, bettering the 51.34 he swam to qualify for the 2023 ‘B’ final. Last year, Smith was sub-52 at both midseason and SECs. This year, he didn’t do that until SECs. Like Benzing and Polonsky, Smith has a chance at the ‘A’ final as long as he has a good morning swim.

Carles Coll Marti missed the 2023 finals entirely, finishing at 18th after adding a couple tenths for a final time of 51.71. In 2022-23, Coll Mart swam a 100 breast PB at the Virginia Tech Invite then progressively got slower from the invite to ACCs to NCAAs. He’s bucked repeating that trend so far this season, improving from the invite to ACCs. At ACCs, Coll Marti swam a lifetime best 50.95, his first sub-51 outing. Coll Marti is clearly on the right track for the final (and is seeded to make it) and could be in the mix for the title if he continues his improvement curve.

New Faces

As Robert Gibbs put it before conferences, Peter Varjasi is “doing his best Van Mathias impression” this season by switching from freestyle to breaststroke. And you know what? He’s doing it flawlessly. When Robert wrote that, Varjasi’s best time in the 100 breast was 52.10 from the Georgia Fall Invite–he’s gone even faster since.

The Florida State fifth-year obliterated that time at ACCs. First, he broke 52 seconds for the first time in prelims (51.98) then dropped the hammer with a 51.07 in the final. Over the course of the season, Varjasi’s cut a whopping 2.94 seconds off his lifetime best, going from 54.01 at 2022 dual meet to a legitimate contender in this race.

Jake Foster (photo: Jack Spitser)

If he continues to follow Mathias’ trend, then there’s more to come at NCAAs. To be competitive for the title, you need to be under 51 seconds. Varjasi hasn’t broken that barrier this season but given his improvement trajectory, it seems like that’s well within the realm of possibility for him.

Sitting just behind Varjasi at #6 on the psych sheet is Penn State sophomore Mariano Lazzerini. Lazzerini didn’t qualify for NCAAs in his freshman season. Lazzerini surprised Indiana’s breaststroke crew (who finished 2-3-4-5) by winning the Big Ten title in the event. He swam 51.08 for a new lifetime best by 1.41 seconds.

That puts him squarely in the mix for the ‘A’ final if he can match that in Indianapolis. One thing to keep in mind though–for all the Penn State swimmers–is that it was announced Marst 21st that head coach Tim Murphy  is currently on an unspecified leave of absence. 

Jake Foster is another fifth-year new to the NCAA 100 breaststroke scene. Foster made a surprising return to the collegiate scene in January when he popped up at the Texas vs. NC State dual meet. At that meet, Foster dropped a lifetime best 51.22 in the 100 breast, which was then a league leading time.

Foster raced in the Longhorns’ dual meet with Duke the next day, then headed to Doha for the 2024 World Championships. He missed the 100-meter breast final, but did log a personal best 59.48–his fourth swim under 1:00 since breaking that barrier in July 2023 at U.S. Nationals.

Foster did not race at Big-12s, but any performance there likely wouldn’t have told us too much more about his form. But we do know that his 100 breast has been improving in both yards and meters over the last year. His typical NCAA Day 3 fare was the 400 IM, but the 100 breast is much more of a free-for-all this season. Foster’s new personal best puts him as the 11th seed, right in the thick of the fight for the ‘A’ final, so why not enter the fray? The Longhorns will take any and all points they can get.

SwimSwam Picks

Dark Horse: Kohen Rankin, Sophomore (Army) — Sitting at 22nd on the psych sheet is sophomore Kohen Rankin, Army’s first NCAA qualifier since 1987. He set a Patriot League record to win the conference title at 52.06. A week later at ECACs, he swam the 100 breast multiple times and finally hit an NCAA ‘B’ cut (and new League record) of 51.62. After workig so hard to make the cut, he may not have much left for the actual championships. However, 51.62 would’ve earned him a second swim last year. If Rankin has enough left in the tank to show up under the lights, Benzing may not be the only mid-major swimmer in the 100 breast finals.