2016 U.S. Olympic Trials Preview: Empire Threatened In M 200 Freestyle

While competing at the 2015 FINA World Championships, the American men were denied gold in the men’s 800m freestyle relay, an event they had dominated since 2005. Great Britain’s foursome, led by World Champion James Guy, put the men’s 200 freestyle and 800m freestyle relay fields on notice that a segment of the world is catching up to the once sure-thing ownership of this event by the U.S.

Pair that with the fact that the Americans were podium-less in the men’s 200m freestyle individual event in London, after seeing Michael Phelps reap gold in Beijing, and this longer sprint freestyle event is somewhat of a wild card worldwide in terms of players ready to take the Olympic gold individually and on a relay level.

Ryan Lochte (courtesy of Mike Lewis)

However, from an American point of view, it is extremely encouraging that the nation’s 4th place finisher in the men’s 200m freestyle event at the London Olympic Games, Ryan Lochte, managed to fire off a time within half a second of that 2012 mark while competing at the FINA World Championships last summer.

At 31 years of age, Lochte is still going strong, as evidenced by his 1:45.36 in Kazan, although he would wind up in 4th place and off the podium. Lochte holds the United States’ fastest 200m freestyle since 2013 with that outing and represents one of just two men from his nation to clear the 1:46 mark since London.

Conor Dwyer (courtesy of Peter Sukenik)

The fastest swimmer since 2012  is former North Baltimore Aquatic Club-turned-Trojan Swim Club athlete Conor Dwyer, who clocked a 1:45.32 at Worlds in 2013. In London, he contributed heavily to the United States’ winning 800m freestyle relay, nabbing a 2nd leg split of 1:45.23 after throwing down 1:45.52 in heats. Most recently, Dwyer was 1:45.41 at the Pro Swim Series meet in Santa Clara, his fastest swim in the event since 2013.

But going without gold is much the story of this individual 200m freestyle event for the American men now that 2-time Olympic medalist in the event, Michael Phelps, seemingly has foregone the race on an individual level and is instead focusing on his fly and IM events for Trials and Rio. We’ve left him off our rankings in light of his most likely relay-only target in this event in Omaha.

With Charlie Houchin and Ricky Berens both having been a part of the men’s 800m freestyle relay and having since retired, along with an unknown status surrounding heats swimmer in the London relay, Matt McLean, any number of the young crop of U.S. freestyle talent can step up and snatch a spot in the top 12 at Trials.

Maxime Rooney (left) and Grant Shoults (right) at the 2015 Junior World Championships. (Courtesy of Adrian Seetho/Singapore Swimming Association)

Pleasanton Aquatics’ World Junior Champion in the event, Maxime Rooney, has soared to the top-tier in this event on the U.S. senior level, taking the national title in the 200m freestyle in San Antonio last summer in an incredibly fast time of 1:47.10. At just 17 years old, Rooney is still growing and getting stronger, which makes significant time drops a reality from one major race to the next. Dipping beneath the 1:47 threshold, as we’ve predicted, is completely within reach for this kid and we see him likely to notch a spot on the 800m freestyle relay, at bare minimum.

Reed Malone has done nothing but improve in his years at USC, and has proved himself a relay stud in the NCAA. Malone is also no stranger to long course, having put up a couple of 1:47s  to win gold at the World University Games last summer and competing as part of the American 4×200 free relay at Worlds in Kazan.

Jack Conger and Townley Haas also will go to battle in this highly competitive event, with both Texas athletes sitting strongly in the 1:47-mid range.  Haas’s improvement in the NCAA this year (which crested with the fastest flat-start and relay-start 200 frees in history) probably give him the edge. Haas will be coming off the 400 free a day earlier, though, and Conger should be fresh for the 200, so there’s certainly a possibility the Longhorns swap spots.

Another young stud towards the end of our top 12 predicted finalists is Mission Viejo’s star Grant Shoults, a possible sleeper in this race. Having fired off a 1:48.10 opening split to his squad’s 800m freestyle relay in addition to finishing as runner-up behind Rooney in the individual 200m freestyle event (1:48.42) at last year’s World Junior Championships, 18-year old Shoults has high-pressure experience and is on the cusp of at least a 1:47-high race.

Also in the mix in our projected top 12: Wisconsin pro Michael Weiss and Texas Longhorn alum Michael Klueh were both part of the World Championships relay last year, and Weiss had a big 1:46.1 split in prelims to earn a spot in the final.

Meanwhile back in the U.S., Badger Swim Clubber Zane Grothe and Indiana Hoosier standout Blake Pieroni were each dropping absurd amounts of time at U.S. Nationals. Grothe dropped from 1:50.3 to 1:47.1 and Pieroni cut from 1:48.8 to 1:47.3 as the two took second (Grothe) and third (Pieroni) behind Rooney.

Aside from our top 2 picks in Lochte and Dwyer, the remainder of the 10 selected athletes we predict to finish in the top 12 are all separated by just over a second based on their best times since 2012. That speaks to the depth of this event for the stars and stripes, but also speaks to the fact that there’s no stand-out ace up America’s sleeve, such as Japan’s Kosuke Hagino or Britain’s James Guy.

American men will need to not only throw down near lifetime bests to capture even a relay spot, but they’ll need to also throw down the hammer in Rio to be internationally competitive both on an individual and relay level.

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