Understanding 46.40: An Incredible Performance by Pan

Courtesy: Corey He

I’m sure you’ve all heard of it by now: in a pool that was dubbed “slow”, “shallow”, and “turbulent” (in terms of waves), Pan Zhanle of China threw down perhaps one of the most impressive and remarkable swims in recent memory: 46.40.

I’ve heard many people say that Pan’s performance was perhaps the most incredible individual performance we’ve ever witnessed. And I wholeheartedly agree with that. To those who may still have their doubts, I’m breaking down below why we may never see another performance like this ever again in our lifetime.

*Disclaimer: Pan is only 20 and has said he has much more in the tank, so maybe we will see another performance like this soon…

1. Pan broke his own world record by 0.4 seconds — the largest margin since 1976.

The last time the 100 freestyle world record was broken by more than 0.4 seconds, you’d have to go back nearly five decades to 1976 — when Jonty Skinner of South Africa swam a 49.44 to break the existing world record of 49.99, held by Jim Montgomery of the United States.

To shed some more light on this, the only other individual men’s world record to fall in Paris — Bobby Finke’s 1500 freestyle — was broken by a smaller margin of 35 one-hundredths. This is in no way, shape, or form to take anything away from Finke’s swim, but rather to just appreciate the rarity of Pan’s other-worldly performance.

World records in the sprints are not supposed to be broken by nearly half a second. And yet Pan did just that — and he did it to his own world record.

2. His second 50 is likely the most impressive 2nd 50 we’ve ever seen.

For a second, let’s forget about the fact that he hit the halfway mark at 22.28 — which, in and of itself, is a tremendously fast split. It’s more about the fact that he was back in 24.12 — a time many swimmers around the world would gladly take for a flat 50 free.

Let’s put Pan’s second 50 into context. When Pan led off China’s 400 freestyle relay in Paris en route to the former Olympic Record time of 46.92, he closed in 24.36. Pan’s former world record — set when he led off China’s 400 freestyle relay at the 2024 Doha Worlds — saw him close in 24.54 (en route to 46.80).

Let’s now compare him to David Popovici, the former world record holder and another tremendous closer. Popovici swam a 46.88 at the 2024 European Championships, where he closed in 24.09. His former world record of 46.86, set back in 2022, saw him close in 24.12 — the same split as Pan’s 46.40.

Here’s one last comparison to Kyle Chalmers, who’s also known for his closing speed. Chalmers has been as fast as 47.08 twice in his career — once at the 2019 Worlds, and again at the Tokyo Olympics. In 2019, he closed in 24.29; in 2021, he closed in 24.37.

Here’s the bottom line: Pan is matching or finding one to two-tenths of extra speed on the back half of the race — all while finding up to five-tenths on the first 50 compared to the best 100 freestylers in the world. In other words, he closes as quickly as some of the best closers in the world, all while taking the race out a half second quicker.

*Don’t get me wrong here — his opening 50 is just as remarkable, but I find his back 50 just otherworldly.

3. Pan left a world-class field — arguably the fastest Olympic final we’ve ever seen — far in his wake.

Could we just take a moment to appreciate the amount of firepower amongst these final eight swimmers?

As previously mentioned, you have 2016 Olympic champion and reigning world champion Kyle Chalmers. Then there’s former world record holder David Popovici. You’ve got home favorite Maxime Grousset — the reigning world champion in the 100 butterfly, along with German Record holder Josha Salchow and Nandor Nemeth, the second-fastest Hungarian ever in this event. And then there’s the U.S. Open record holder Jack Alexy, reigning Worlds silver medalist, along with teammate Chris Guiliano, who won the U.S. trials.

The time to make it back to the final was 47.94, the 2nd-fastest top-8 cutoff only to the Tokyo Olympics (47.82) — and faster than what it took to make it back to the finals of the super-suited 2008 Beijing Olympics (48.07). The final saw all eight swimmers go under 48 seconds, the first time in Olympic history that this has occurred.

Thus, we witnessed one of the deepest 100 freestyle fields ever assembled.

This leads to my next point…

4. Pan’s margin of victory was 1.08 seconds — the largest margin since the 1928 Olympics in Amsterdam.

Just think about that for a moment. To find an instance where the margin of victory was larger than that of Pan’s, we have to go back 96 years — to a day and age where times were only measured to the tenth.

It’s no myth that the swimming world has progressed so much since then. For a moment, we can forget about the tangible innovations — including those to pool designs, starting blocks, training regimens, and racing gear — and just appreciate the fact that swimming as a whole is far more competitive than it was over a century ago.

If you’re still having difficulty wrapping your mind around this idea of competitiveness, here’s perhaps the best way to consider this. If you take the final results of the 2024 100 freestyle Olympic final and remove Pan from it entirely, you get something that looks like a typical championship final. Upon removing Pan, you get a podium separated by 0.02 seconds, and the spread across the entire field becomes exactly half a second (47.48 to 47.98).

Perhaps this shows how much of an outlier Pan’s swim was. In a way, his dominance on the field made the Olympic final look like a circle-seeded preliminary heat — and this is in no way, shape, or form to downplay the rest of the field. As I mentioned, this was the fastest Olympic final in history, with or without Pan’s 46.40 — and Pan’s performance only emphasizes this.

5. For swimming fans who have trouble contextualizing 46.40, here are some comparisons to some other common sports.

The former world record in the 100 freestyle stood at 46.80. Before Pan’s 46.40, a number of swimmers came close to that mark, recording performances of 46.86 and 46.88 (Popovici), 46.96 (Caeleb Dressel), 46.91 (Cesar Cielo), and 46.94 (Alain Bernard).

I say this to establish some context: the world record once stood at 47.05 back in 2008 (Eamon Sullivan), and since then has taken incremental drops by some of these aforementioned swimmers — before Pan took a huge chunk off of that.

If you’re a track athlete, it’s probably the same as someone running a 3:24 in the men’s 1500m — or a 49-second performance in the women’s 400m hurdles. If you’re a long jumper, perhaps you could compare Pan’s swim to a 9-meter long jump (the current world record stands at 8.95m from 1991).

Let’s move over to some other sports. Pan’s performance draws parallels to Matthew Mitcham’s near-perfect gold-clinching final dive at the 2008 Olympics 10m platform event. In the world of figure skating, it’s the equivalent of landing a quintuple jump — which, to many today, seems beyond physical possibility. In the world of marathon running, Pan’s achievement parallels that of the two-hour mark — a barrier that has yet to be overcome in an official race.

Whatever the sport you may compete in, think of some mythical barrier that has yet to be touched — and then imagine not only breaking it, but surpassing it convincingly. That’s the scale of Pan’s performance.

Final Thoughts

A few days after his 46.40, Pan would go on to anchor China’s medley relay to gold in 45.92. Not only did he break the U.S. men’s winning streak in this event, but he also became the first man to cover 100 meters in under 46 seconds — and, in doing so, he took down the legendary 46.06 relay split set by Jason Lezak back in 2008.

Obviously, the circumstances of a relay are wildly different to that of a flat-start 100 freestyle. In addition to Lezak’s 46.06, other swimmers have come close: Cielo split 46.22 back in 2009, and Duncan Scott split 46.14 in 2019.

And as impressive as the first sub-46 swim may be, I think Pan’s 46.40 is still his most impressive swim in Paris, just because of how far he left his competitors — and the fastest to ever do it in history — far in his wake.