The Top Australian Storylines Headed Into The Paris Olympic Year — Men’s Edition

Last week, we covered the top American storylines for the Paris Olympic year. Now, it’s only fair to cover the country that beat Team USA in the 2023 World Championships last summer. So without further ado, these are the top Australian storylines for 2024, starting with the men.

Chalmers, McEvoy, And Their Rio Flashbacks

The Rio 2016 Olympics were worth remembering for Kyle Chalmers and Cameron McEvoy, albeit for different reasons.

Both swimmers were entered in the men’s 100 free. McEvoy was the heavy favorite to win, upon posting what was the fastest 100-free swim in a textile suit (47.04). Meanwhile, Chalmers was an 18-year-old rookie who had never raced an individual event at a senior international meet. He qualified for his first Olympics by finishing second behind McEvoy at trials, but his swim was largely overshadowed by his teammate’s success. But when the 100 free race happened, McEvoy added over a second and finished seventh, while Chalmers shocked everyone to take gold with a World Junior Record. McEvoy would have beaten Chalmers’s winning time (47.54) by a body length if he was at his best, but the younger swimmer swam the fastest when it mattered the most.

Cameron McEvoy by Fabio Cetti

However, Chalmers would go five years without winning a single World or Olympic title in the 100 free. He continued to improve time-wise, but his path to gold was often blocked by American Caeleb Dressel, who out-touched him by less than a tenth at both the 2019 World Championships and the 2021 Olympic Games. In addition, he had also been plagued by injuries during this period. He underwent heart surgery in 2017 and dealt with shoulder issues in 2021 that ultimately culminated in him having surgery that December. Meanwhile, McEvoy saw a career decline during this period, failing to hit his best times from 2016 and being reduced to a prelims-only relay swimmer at the Tokyo Games.

After Chalmers and McEvoy both skipped the 2022 World Championships individually (Chalmers opted to only swim relays to recover from his shoulder problems, while McEvoy took time off from swimming), they both had successful 2023 World Championships. Chalmers finally won his first World title in the 100 free, while McEvoy had a resurgence by winning gold in the 50 free and becoming the fourth-fastest performer all-time (21.06). Both of them head into Paris as the favorites to win the events that they won at Worlds, but it’s a little deeper than that.

Chalmers is fully healthy for the first since 2016 and has the opportunity to reclaim the Olympic gold that eluded him by 0.04 seconds in Tokyo. He said that Paris would be his final Olympic games, so it would be a fitting end to his career if he pulled off the same feat that he did in 2016 to first burst onto the international scene. For McEvoy, Paris is a chance to tie the loose ends that he left in Rio, winning the gold that he was favored to take eight years ago but never got ahold of. Both swimmers have ample competition in their main events, most namely Dressel (whether he will go back to his peak form is yet to be seen), but have a ton of momentum going in favor. And if they pull off gold, it would be great closure for both of their careers.

Now if McEvoy becomes competitive in the 100 free again, that would be a major plot twist….

Can Short And Winnington Bring Aussie Distance Back To The Golden Age?

The distance events were the pride of Australian men’s swimming in the late 90s/early 2000s. Kieren Perkins dominated the 1500 free from 1992 to 1996, and then Ian Thorpe and Grant Hackett took over 400 to 1500 free distances from 2000 to 2005. Perkins, Thorpe, and Hackett all set multiple world records, and are considered three of the greatest Australian swimmers of all time. However, from 2007 to 2021, only one Australian won a World or Olympic title in a 200-meter or longer freestyle event: Mack Horton at the 2016 Olympics.

Sam Short by Fabio Cetti

Recently though, Australian men’s distance swimming finally saw the spark that it once had two decades ago. Elijah Winnington posted the fastest 400 free time of 2021, but failed to replicate it in Tokyo and finished off the podium. However, he bounced back in 2022 to win the World title in the 400 free, posting a time of 3:41.22 which was the fastest performance in the event since 2012. A year later, his countrymate Sam Short swam an even faster time to win the 400 free at Worlds (3:40.68), as he and Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui became the fourth and fifth swimmers to get under the 3:41 barrier in the event. Short was also 0.76 seconds away from winning gold in the 800 free with an Oceanic record time (7:37.76) and took bronze in the 1500.

Headed into Paris, Short, and Winnington (especially Short, who is a medal contender from the 400 to the 1500) have the opportunity to further cement the idea that men’s distance swimming belongs to the Australians again. But it’s not going to be so simple this time around.

From 1992 to 2005, Perkins, Thorpe, and Hackett were for the most part far ahead of the rest of the world. However, Short and Winnington are in a golden era of men’s distance swimming, where athletes across the world are excelling in that 400 to 1500-meter distance. Winnington may have won the 2022 World title in the 400 free, but Germany’s Lukas Martens posted a time (3:41.60) not far off his winning mark a few months prior. In 2023, both Winnington and Martens were completely overshadowed, as names like Short, Hafnaoui, and the United State’s Bobby Finke took the reigns. But nobody was particularly dominant either, as Short only beat Hafnaoui by 0.02 seconds in the 400 free, and Hafnaoui only beat Short by 0.76 seconds in the 800 free. In the 1500 free, the longest event in the pool, only 0.05 seconds separated Hafnaoui and Finke for gold. And this doesn’t even account for other prominent distance swimmers like Ireland’s Daniel Wiffen, who recently broke Hackett’s longstanding short course 800 free world record, as well as reigning Olympic medalists Florian Wellbrock, Gregorio Paltrinieri, and Mykhailo Romanchuk.

Next year, Short and Winnington will be two of many medal contenders in the men’s distance freestyle events. These two swimmers could absolutely rack up the gold that Thorpe and Hackett won in the earlier days, but they’ll have to get through all the other international juggernauts first.

Cody Simpson‘s Olympic Team Chances

When world-renowned pop star Cody Simpson started swim training again in 2019 after initially quitting the sport as a 13-year-old, not many people expected him to be in the running to make international teams. He had an impressive showing at the Australian Olympic trials in 2021, finishing eight in the 100 fly finals, but making Worlds or the Olympics was still a long shot for him.

Cody Simpson by Marcus Chen

That all changed in 2022 when Simpson placed third at the Australian Nationals, qualifying for the Commonwealth Games and nearly making the World Championships (and plenty of drama ensued following that). He set a best time of 51.78 in the event, which he later improved to 51.67 in December. In 2023, he’s tied with Ben Armbruster as the fourth-fastest 100 flyer in Australia, behind Matt Temple (50.25), Chalmers (51.61), and Jesse Coleman (51.66). Simpson has a chance at taking the second individual 100 fly spot behind Temple, and Chalmers likely going all-in on the 100 fly would benefit him. However, he will have to beat a very competitive field to book a ticket to Paris.

Simpson could also potentially qualify for Paris as a member of the 4×100 free relay, though it seems unlikely given his current circumstances. He holds a personal best time of 48.99, which is faster than the 49.35 that Jack Cartwright swam to finish sixth at the Australian Championships last season. However, Cartwright is a proven 47-point relay swimmer, which likely merited his selection, which is at the “absolute discretion” of Swimming Australia (not all sixth-place finishers in the 100 free have been selected for Worlds/Olympic qualification in past years). It also doesn’t help that ten different Australians were faster than Simpson in the 100 free in 2023.

If Simpson qualifies for Paris, his brand as a pop star and his connections to the entertainment industry would make him one of the highest-profile Australians at the games. His story is already impressive enough, and adding the Olympics to his resume would most certainly attract the attention of the mainstream. However, he still has to take down several obstacles on his path towards Paris. He’s in a better spot than where he was in 2021, but the journey will still be difficult.

Young Sprinting Talent

In this Olympic cycle, we’ve seen an emergence of young male sprinting talent coming out of Australia, and they’ve quickly made a major impact.

Flynn Southam. By Jon Reiter

Then 16-year-old Flynn Southam first made strides in 2022, qualifying for the World Championships and Commonwealth Games in the 100 free and as a member of the 4×100 and 4×200 freestyle relays. He got even better in 2023, breaking 48 in the 100 free at Australian Nationals (47.77) and helping the Aussies win gold in the 4×100 free relay. Kai Taylor, who was 19 when he raced at the 2023 World Championships, had a later breakthrough than Southam but was perhaps even more impactful. He qualified for Worlds on the 4×200 free relay upon initially missing the 200 free final at Nationals, only getting a second swim because Chalmers scratched the final. But he made the most of his opportunity, splitting 1:44.56 in the prelims before setting a best time of 1:45.79 leading off for his team in the finals to help them win bronze (he had the third-fastest leadoff leg in the field). In addition, he was also a part of Australia’s gold medal-winning men’s and mixed 4×100 free relays.

Southam and Taylor’s fastest 100 free splits of 47.54 and 47.57 respectively were the fastest swims from an Aussie not named Chalmers since Zac Incerti split 47.55 at the Tokyo games.

But perhaps the biggest young Australian breakthrough of them all came from a swimmer who wasn’t even at the 2022 or 2023 World Championships: 20-year-old Maximillian Giuliani. Just last week, he posted a huge time of 1:44.79 in the 200 free, becoming the second-fastest Aussie of all-time (only behind Thorpe) and the third to break 1:45. He also posted a best time of 48.21 in the 100 free this summer, which puts him in the running to be on the Australian 4×100 free relay as another potential 47-point split.

The rise of Southam, Taylor, and Giuliani has major implications for the Australian 4×100 and 4×200 free relays, which have long been medal contenders but not often gold medal contenders. Last week, we published an article on how Giuliani’s emergence gives the Aussies a legitimate shot at challenging Team USA’s 4×200 free relay, which beat Australia by over two seconds at the 2023 Worlds. Great Britain should still be the heavy favorite to win, but if any of their swimmers underperform significantly, the Australians would have a better shot at upsetting them with their new young guns than without them. If these younger swimmers improve in the 100 free as well, they could also further strengthen Australia’s 4×100 free relay that won gold at Worlds. With four swimmers going 47.5 or better and two swimmers right now who can throw down 46-point splits (Matt Richards and Tom Dean), the Brits are once again the favorites, but the younger Aussies can help close the gap and are boosted by having arguably the best relay anchor in the world in Chalmers.

How Good Can The Medley Relay Get?

Matthew Temple courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Recently, Matt Temple, Bradley Woodward, and Sam Williamson had huge swims. Temple set his first 100 fly personal best since 2021, clocking a time of 50.25 that makes him the sixth-fastest performer ever. Woodward set a personal best time of 53.38 leading off the Aussie medley relay at Worlds. Williamson, meanwhile, is coming off an Australian record time of 26.51 in the 50 breast and swam a 59.26 in the 100 breast. His latter time is faster than the best time of Zac Stubblety-Cook (59.51), who is much better across the 200 distance but has had to step up to be the medley relay breaststroker in recent years. With a breaststroker who’s actually focused on the sprints and an improved flyer and backstroker, how much better does Australia’s medley relay get and can they challenge China or the United States?

Yes, Woodward and Williamson are not as fast as the American/Chinese backstrokers and breaststrokers. But Temple has the potential to split 49-point, and when he’s paired with arguably the world’s fastest relay swimmer in Chalmers, the Australians will likely have the strongest back half in the world. In a best-case scenario medley relay add up including Temple and Williamson’s flat start times, the Aussies are still over a second away from Team USA and China. But if one second (and potentially even) more gets subtracted from that add-up time, then the race could be a lot closer between the three nations. Either way, the point being made is that the men’s medley relay headed into Paris is in a much better place than it was at the beginning of 2023.

Australia’s biggest weakness is backstroke, as Woodward is over a second slower than China’s Xu Jiayu and Team USA’s Ryan Murphy were this year. The 100 back has been a problem for the Aussies since Mitch Larkin fell from his peak, and it doesn’t help that 50 back Aussie record holder Isaac Cooper is much stronger in the 50s than he is in the 100s. The good thing is that Woodward has had pretty strong momentum this year, setting his first 100 and 200 back personal bests since 2018. If he continues this improvement into Paris, the medley relay will also get faster and the distance between Australia and the USA/China will shorten.

It’s also worth noting that Temple and Williamson could also be big boosts to the mixed medley relay, an event where Australia tends to go female-male-male-female. The Aussies were just 0.46 seconds away from gold last year, and a faster middle half paired alongside the women’s 100 back world record holder (Kaylee McKeown) and a likely 51-point female freestyler will be a lethal combination.