Tip of the hat to reader BOBFROMTHEISLAND for this stat.
Location, location, location. It’s everything in real estate and it’s everything in the Olympic final of the men’s 100 freestyle.
Since 2004, the Olympic champion in the men’s 100 freestyle has come from lane five. That streak includes the likes of Caeleb Dressel (Tokyo), Kyle Chalmers (Rio), Nathan Adrian (London), Alain Bernard (Beijing), and Pieter van den Hoogenband (Athens). For all except van den Hoogenband, the win marked each’s first individual Olympic gold.
The lane five streak is now 20 years old and you have to go back even further in history to find an Olympic champion in this race who didn’t swim in either middle lane for the final. In 1984, Rowdy Gaines won his title from lane three—practically outside smoke in this race.
The streak is an interesting phenomenon, though it isn’t a surprise that positioning is crucial in the 100 freestyle. Especially in this modern era of the sport, the men who race this event are often bigger and more muscly than their non-sprinter teammates. This means that the wave created by the field is bigger and tougher to battle through. At the 2023 World Championships, Chalmers won his first long-course world title in this event from lane five. But silver went to Jack Alexy in lane eight and bronze to Maxime Grousset in lane one, who both had an open lane’s clear water on one side.
Positioning in this race is on everyone’s mind more than ever this year because of swimmers like former world record holder David Popovici. In his own words, Popovici is a “skinny legend” and bucks the trend of the biggest men having the most success in this event. He’s had his best swims in this event when the field is without his bigger-built rivals. If he gets caught in the wash of his competitors, it could neuter one of his biggest assets in this race—his backhalf speed.
So, one of the major factors for the 100 freestyle final in Paris is who is in what lane. And in such a stacked field, there will not be much wiggle room for even the top competitors to try and snag their preferred lane the way we sometimes see with distance swimmers.
Being one of the two golden-buoyed middle lanes marks you as one of the favorites for the final, or at least someone who’s shown strong form through the rounds. That’s reflected in how the last five Olympic 100 freestyle finals have played out. The majority of our last five winners were in podium position at the turn. Dressel was first to 50 meters in Tokyo, Bernard was second, and Adrian was third.
Van den Hoogenband was sixth at the turn but Chalmers had an even more impressive second half. Then 18 years old, Chalmers turned in seventh place (23.14) before storming home in 24.44 to take gold. Chalmers is also known for his closing speed—he was again seventh at the turn in Fukuoka en route to the world title—underling that there is more than one way to win gold in this event. But in what is perhaps the deepest 100 free Olympic field in history, does one need Chalmers’ size to successfully execute a back-half strategy?
The clock is ticking down to the men’s 100 freestyle final on July 31st and lane five is calling. With the current world record holder, former world record holder, and 2016 champion in the race we’ll certainly be on world record watch, but we’ll also be looking to see if the lane five streak extends to six.
I didn’t get two paragraphs in before I scrolled to see who had written this piece, I really enjoyed the soft blend of humor and stats, well done Sophie.
The statistics is somewhat enlightening for elite swimmers capable of qualifying for the final.
Now the question is reduced to whether these swimmers could orchestrate their speed in highly intense prelims and semis, i.e., pacing, so as to be placed to lane 5 in the final.
Being Highly dubious about the probability this scenario should happen, while making the most of a specific placement in the field is by no means in their lap.
Now that you brought it up, it won’t happen this year
FYI
https://drive.google.com/file/d/15X98w3ltMkuV6ST3FWxwP24jdFwMe5yi/view?usp=drive_link
21st Century Medal Lanes
No Woman this century has won a Gold from Lane 8 and No Man has won Gold from Lane 1. A swimmer in every other lane has won at least one medal of each color since Sydney.
Only one relay this century has won Gold from an outside lane in either Men’s or Women’s Swimming. Can you name it? (HINT- It was just 3 years ago…)
USA men’s medley gold in Tokyo. How on earth they were in an outside lane I don’t know. Someone miscalculated.
I believe the Men’s Medley will be the most hotly contested relay in Paris as I noticed the following fact the other day:
12 countries have at least 3 of the 4 legs of the Medley Relay covered by a top 30 in the world in that discipline. Six of them have all 4 covered. Anybody trying to “calculate” in Prelims for a lane will find themselves out of the Finals this year!
USA men’s mdely in Tokyo was just the best quartet of the race by no matter the lane in which they swum.
I don’t think lane assignements is as important as the quality of the swimmer. VDH, Adrian, Dressel, Bernard were part of the top 2 among the competition on this event on that moment. Chalmers was a surprising winner but he demonstrates the following year that he is part of the top 2 or 3 swimmers in the 100FR in his era.
MATTY RICH is getting lane 5 and winning
Hard to see him going 47.1 in the semis even if he’s capable of it. He needs to save up for the 4×2 relay the same sesh, which we all know is GB’s target race for the whole week
solid insight here Andrew. Wouldn’t mind this in my Multi! Good luck to all punters out there
Great stat.
Thank you to the commenter in the other thread who inspired this ‘amazing stat’ article.
I think it is all mental. Being the top seed and assigned to lane 4 in the final places a massive target on the swimmer’s back, escalating the psychological pressure. The lane 5 swimmer, on the other hand, is just one place away from the gold, making them ravenous to take down the top seed.
Nathan Adrian said something along the lines of 100 free being the most alpha male race in swimming.
Biondi, Popov twice and even VDH won the Olympic Gold swimming in lane 4. There is a huge mental dimension obviously especially in the 100m freestyle but when you are the best, you will win eventually because you are the best.