Like last year, SwimSwam writers have some opinions for this year too. What might happen? What will happen? And hey, some hot takes. I mean come on everyone knows pineapple belongs on pizza (it actually does not).
OUR WILD PREDICTIONS
Our real “wild predictions” are meant to be a bit of a hot take. Nothing too obvious, but also something fun enough that it could happen. Let us know in the comments what you think is most likely to happen and least likely to happen.
They all start off as “My wild prediction for 2024 is that…..”
Braden: Ollie Morgan wins two backstroke medals at the Olympics.
YanYan: We will get a 50-point women’s 100 free relay split.
Riley: Ilya Kharun will win Olympic gold in Paris
Anya: Gretchen Walsh opts to swim the 100 fly instead of 100 back. Walsh officially breaks Kate Douglass‘ American record while the NCAA 100 back champion breaks Walsh’s 100 back record.
Nicole: The US women won’t have any individual gold medalists in Paris minus Katie Ledecky.
Mark: Despite using a male breaststroker at 2023 Worlds, the US will revert to a female breaststroker for the Olympics. (Bonus points for saying they won’t medal?)
Sophie: Siobhan Haughey wins 100/200 free double gold in Paris
Reid: Multiple men go sub-3:40 in the 400 freestyle and a 3:58 misses the podium in the women’s 400 freestyle.
Retta: Korean men will get 4×2 bronze in Paris
Laura: Someone not named Derek Maas swims a D1 scoring time at D3 NCAAs.
Barry: Last year, Barry said “LeBron James buys the LA Current helping kickstart the ISL, nevertheless, the LA Current will once again finish fourth.” This year, Barry has continued his hot take saying, “I’m still holding out on Lebron next year!”
James: China wins more gold medals in the pool than the U.S.
OUR ALTER EGO TAKES
It’s time for us to have some fun and give some alter ego takes. Have some fun and read them below:
Mark: The US women’s team at 2024 Worlds will win 10 more medals than at the Olympics, despite unlikely having relays.
Reid: Taylor Swift buys the ISL and season 4 takes place entirely at Arrowhead Stadium (GEHA).
YanYan: Margot Robbie will win best lead actress at the 2024 Oscars for Barbie and shoutout the Australian swimming team in her acceptance speech
Braden: Yanyan goes viral on Twitter for something not involving swimming.
Last Year’s Results
There were mixed results last year. As there is no definition of a “hot take”, some of the takes were slightly hotter than others. The same can be said for this year. See the full results here. Most of the takes landed somewhere in the middle that they partially happened but may have been too complex for the full event.
Canadian women will win more GOLD than US women!
50 Free – 🇸🇪
100 Free – 🇸🇪 or 🇦🇺
200 Free – 🇦🇺
400 Free – 🇦🇺 or 🇨🇦
800 Free – 🇺🇲
1500 Free – 🇺🇲
100 back – 🇦🇺
200 back – 🇦🇺
100 breast – 🇱🇹
200 breast – 🇿🇦
100 Fly – 🇨🇦
200 Fly – 🇨🇦
200 IM – 🇨🇦 or 🇺🇲
400 IM – 🇨🇦
4×1 Free – 🇦🇺
4×2 Free – 🇦🇺
Medley – 🇦🇺 or 🇺🇲…., 🇨🇦 spoiler IF one of their 106 breaststrokers can drop a 105 low leg
Post-Olympic Trials, Michael Andrew goes to train with someone who is NOT his father.
Marchand goes 3:59.99 or lower. Fly/Back + last 50 (makes -3 sec.) with a gold medal in sight – makes him go under 4:00
Hali Flickiner stars in Season 8 of Selling Sunset and does not event attend Olympic Trials
Here’s a wild one:
Dressel will repeat with 3 individual golds
But they’re in 1500 free, 400IM and 200 breast. MA gets triple silver in these events also.
Pan Zhanle will go sub-46:50 in the men’s 100 freestyle final.
16 year old Zhang Zhanshuo will win both 400m freestyle and 400 IM with Leon Marchand 0.01 second behind.
Taylor Ruck, training at ASU, falls in love with alum Carter Swift. They get married, she takes his last name.
Lacking sponsors, she runs a kickstarter “Send Taylor Swift to the Olympics!” – raises $25 million in a weekend, then gets sued into oblivion, tarred and feathered online.
Wins a bronze in 4×100 FR though!
What a Ruckus…;]
Summer McIntosh has one of the best olympics in history. She is gold in the 200/400 free, 200 fly, and 200/400 IM. She’s world records in all but the 200 fly.
No way that Summer is beating MOC, Titmus and Haughey in the 200 free. She probably won’t win the 400 free either but it is possible.
There is a good possibility Summer won’t even race the 200 due to the scheduling. If by chance that she does race the 200 I wouldn’t be so fast to write her off. Summer was the only swimmer of the big four to do every split under 29 in that race and also came home in the last 50 faster than both Ariarne and Siobhan. Only MOC was quicker. Still only 17, plenty of room to continue to add strength, I wouldn’t right Summer off so fast. However, the odds are still in favour of her skipping the 200.
Think 4 is the maximum individual events she’ll swim so your 5/5 may not even be a starter.
Am prepared to give her overwhelming favouritism in 400IM & 200FLY. 200IM is a very good shot …. if she swims it. 400FR = maybe an equal favourite but Titmus did send out a very clear statement in Fukuoka that this will in no way be a gimme. 200FR could have possibilities, if she swims it, but on paper this looks the hardest “ask”.
2 golds = solid bet; 3 gold = a very good chance but no done deal. 4 gold = possible but will she have the gas left in the tank ?
Can’t see how Summer would be considered equal favourite with Titmus in the 400 when Titmus has the faster PB and is the proven performer in the event, getting the best out of herself when asked to step up against generational talents when stakes are highest.
I agree with your assessment. Ariarne has to be the current odds on favourite to win the 400 Free. She is the current WR holder, hasn’t lost a 400 free race in 5 or 6 years? It’s her crown until someone can come and take it off her.
My personal opinion aligns with yours; however many beleive McIntosh may/will claim that WR back before Paris.
she’s about 5 years younger and TItmus is coming off major surgery, which kinda evens the odds
I agree. Summer is a lock in the 400IM. 200 Fly is favourite but Smith and Zhang have both been faster so no guarantees. 400 Free she definitely has potential to take the WR back but currently isn’t the fastest. 200IM she had the fastest time of the year but not by much. 200 Free she has a fair bit of ground to make up and it is bad scheduling for her.
My guess is she wins 400IM and 200 Fly. Then she wins one of either 200IM or 400 Free. She doesn’t win 200 free. Leaving her with 3 golds and two minor medals.