There is a theory in economics that under certain circumstances combining the opinions of a large group of people can... Current photo via Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com
There is a theory in economics that under certain circumstances combining the opinions of a large group of people can predict the future better than the most informed experts can on their own. By that logic perhaps the best way to predict the results of the upcoming NCAA women’s championships is to look at the 656 entries in the pick ’em contest. I included a table below with the collective predictions of the contest for each event.
-The biggest favorites are the Stanford 800 Free relay (99.7% picked them first), Katie Ledecky in the 1650 (99.5%), Lilly King in the 100 Breast (99.4%), Katie Ledecky in the 500 Free (99.2%), the Stanford 400 Free Relay (98%), and Simone Manuel in the 100 Free (95.4%).
-The weakest favorites are Janet Hu in the 100 Fly (45.1% picked to finish first), Stanford in the 200 Medley Relay (53.5%), Ally Howe in the 100 Back (58.3%), Stanford in the 200 Free Relay (65.3%)
-For each person that entered I added up the field’s percentage for each of their answers. The highest numbers were the most similar to the field as a whole. The lowest were the most divergent. The most similar to the consensus was CarribeanSwimmer with 37.01 followed by dizzyd247 with 36.63, and RetiredSpeedo with 36.62. The least representative (among entries that actually filled out all the events) was Aris with 7.57 followed by TAY85 with 18.34, and Debarino with 19.63. The top ten most and least similar are in tables all the way at the bottom of the article.
Complete entries if you want to review your entries (or anyone else’s entries)
Pick ’em Predictions
The percentages are the proportion of entires that picked that swimmer/team to finish in that place
800 Free Relay
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Stanford University
99.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
University of Southern California
0.2%
11.6%
49.3%
24.3%
North Carolina State University
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
University of California, Berkeley
0.0%
81.7%
14.1%
2.9%
University of Michigan
0.0%
4.3%
25.8%
37.8%
University of Virginia
0.0%
1.1%
6.3%
21.5%
University of Texas at Austin
0.0%
0.6%
3.6%
7.1%
University of Georgia
0.0%
0.3%
0.3%
2.2%
Texas A&M University, College Station
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
3.4%
University of Louisville
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
University of Kentucky
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
200 Free Relay
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Stanford University
65.3%
28.7%
5.9%
0.0%
University of California, Berkeley
31.4%
55.8%
11.0%
0.9%
University of Georgia
2.0%
13.9%
67.2%
15.6%
North Carolina State University
0.9%
1.4%
14.1%
55.9%
Auburn University
0.3%
0.0%
0.2%
1.7%
University of Texas at Austin
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
1.4%
University of Arizona
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
13.0%
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
7.9%
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
1.4%
University of Wisconsin, Madison
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
University of Southern California
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
The Ohio State University
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Texas A&M University, College Station
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
University of Virginia
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
500 Free
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Ledecky, Kathleen
99.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Smith, Leah
0.2%
98.6%
1.1%
0.2%
Bi, Yirong
0.2%
0.3%
10.6%
12.2%
Evans, Joanna
0.2%
0.0%
0.9%
2.2%
Moore, Hannah
0.2%
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
Meitz, Kaersten
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Ryan, G
0.0%
0.5%
15.4%
33.1%
Drabot, Katherine
0.0%
0.3%
17.9%
18.7%
Muller, Rachel
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Runge, Cierra
0.0%
0.0%
45.5%
16.1%
McLaughlin, Kathryn
0.0%
0.0%
3.7%
10.2%
Comerford, Mallory
0.0%
0.0%
4.0%
6.2%
Cox, Hannah
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
Rasmus, Claire
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Byrnes, Megan
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Mann, Rebecca
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
200 IM
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Eastin, Ella
71.6%
21.5%
6.0%
0.5%
Baker, Kathleen
18.3%
43.4%
30.3%
5.4%
Cox, Madisyn
9.5%
29.2%
36.5%
14.5%
Pickrem, Sydney
0.3%
0.9%
6.3%
27.5%
Jones, Kaitlyn
0.2%
0.2%
0.9%
2.9%
Zevnik, Alexia
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
1.8%
Small, Meghan
0.0%
2.6%
11.8%
24.0%
King, Lillia
0.0%
0.6%
0.8%
2.0%
Hansson, Louise
0.0%
0.5%
3.4%
13.8%
Galat, Bethany
0.0%
0.5%
2.8%
5.1%
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadett
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
1.4%
Brumbaum, Kayla
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Howe, Ally
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
Vose, Kirsten
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
Seidt, Asia
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Malone, Kristin
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
50 Free
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Manuel, Simone
82.2%
16.9%
0.6%
0.0%
Weitzeil, Abbigail
15.8%
53.9%
19.5%
6.6%
Smoliga, Olivia
1.2%
17.5%
43.4%
18.0%
Li, Zhesi
0.3%
5.8%
7.7%
18.9%
Osman, Farida
0.2%
4.8%
20.9%
36.1%
Perry, Ky-lee
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
Millard, Rebecca
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Neal, Lia
0.0%
0.5%
5.5%
9.8%
Banic, Madeline
0.0%
0.3%
1.1%
4.5%
Mack, Linnea
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.3%
Caldwell, Courtney
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Van Landeghem, Chantal
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
2.9%
Konopka, Katrina
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
1.7%
Apostalon, Anika
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
Bilquist, Amy
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Nevalainen, Lotta
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Gastaldello, Beryl
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Labonge, Natalie
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
400 Medley Relay
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Stanford University
90.9%
7.1%
1.1%
0.8%
University of California, Berkeley
7.6%
74.6%
11.5%
3.3%
University of Southern California
0.5%
11.5%
49.0%
18.0%
North Carolina State University
0.3%
3.9%
17.0%
30.3%
Indiana University, Bloomington
0.3%
1.4%
15.1%
30.3%
University of Texas at Austin
0.2%
0.9%
2.3%
7.9%
University of Virginia
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
University of Georgia
0.2%
0.0%
2.5%
4.5%
Texas A&M University, College Station
0.0%
0.3%
1.2%
3.1%
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
University of Louisville
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
University of Missouri, Columbia
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Boise State University
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
400 IM
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Eastin, Ella
89.4%
9.5%
0.8%
0.2%
Cox, Madisyn
8.4%
62.5%
19.8%
6.0%
Pickrem, Sydney
1.5%
14.9%
22.8%
30.4%
Galat, Bethany
0.5%
5.4%
13.9%
16.2%
Moore, Hannah
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Szekely, Alexandra
0.0%
5.1%
27.8%
20.7%
Zeiger, Brooke
0.0%
1.2%
9.9%
14.0%
Small, Meghan
0.0%
0.6%
2.2%
3.9%
Cameron, Emily
0.0%
0.5%
0.9%
1.4%
Clary, Lindsey
0.0%
0.3%
1.9%
5.7%
Gyorgy, Reka
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
Li, Celina
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Samardzic, Matea
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Bratton, Lisa
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Faulconer, Savanna
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
100 Fly
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Hu, Janet
45.1%
33.8%
15.6%
4.3%
Hansson, Louise
19.0%
22.2%
21.0%
19.3%
Osman, Farida
18.0%
23.1%
25.3%
15.3%
Thomas, Noemie
9.4%
9.3%
18.8%
23.3%
Gibson, Sarah
4.9%
5.2%
7.1%
13.9%
Dalesandro, Gia
2.6%
3.5%
8.3%
11.6%
Moffitt, Hellen
0.5%
2.0%
1.7%
6.5%
Britt, Chelsea
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
2.9%
Li, Zhesi
0.2%
0.2%
0.9%
1.7%
Duffield, Krista
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Banic, Madeline
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.5%
Burchill, Veronica
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
Labonge, Natalie
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Jones, Kaitlyn
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Rule, Remedy
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Erasmus, Marne
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Goldman, Leah
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
200 Free
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Ledecky, Kathleen
87.9%
11.8%
1.2%
0.0%
Manuel, Simone
11.0%
84.6%
2.8%
0.3%
Comerford, Mallory
0.8%
3.2%
72.8%
11.4%
Rasmus, Claire
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Muller, Rachel
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Smith, Leah
0.0%
0.2%
8.0%
25.0%
McLaughlin, Kathryn
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
1.9%
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadett
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
33.3%
Runge, Cierra
0.0%
0.0%
5.2%
15.7%
Neal, Lia
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
9.7%
Keire, Jacqueline
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.2%
Drabot, Katherine
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
Goss, Kennedy
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Raab, Meaghan
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Vredeveld, Kristen
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Weitzeil, Abbigail
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Deloof, Gabrielle
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
100 Breast
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
King, Lillia
99.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Pierce, Natalie
0.2%
22.1%
29.0%
21.4%
Cottrell, Andrea
0.2%
16.2%
19.4%
16.6%
Brumbaum, Kayla
0.2%
2.0%
3.0%
7.3%
Horejsi, Lindsey
0.2%
1.1%
1.9%
4.5%
Simon, Laura
0.0%
39.4%
26.7%
18.3%
Kansakoski, Silja
0.0%
13.8%
14.1%
21.9%
Smith, Kierra
0.0%
3.6%
2.5%
4.5%
Scott, Riley
0.0%
0.9%
1.9%
2.6%
Ross, Katharine
0.0%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
Sougstad, Emma
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
Carlson, Maria
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Caneta, Jorie
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Tafuto, Vivian
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Vose, Kirsten
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Escobedo, Emily
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
1.1%
100 Back
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Howe, Ally
58.3%
26.1%
10.5%
2.8%
Baker, Kathleen
32.8%
42.4%
19.1%
4.6%
Smoliga, Olivia
5.7%
14.4%
35.6%
32.5%
Hu, Janet
2.3%
15.6%
28.4%
33.6%
Bilquist, Amy
0.6%
0.9%
3.1%
9.1%
Mack, Linnea
0.2%
0.3%
1.4%
7.9%
Zevnik, Alexia
0.2%
0.0%
0.8%
4.8%
Karosas, Tasija
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.9%
Haan, Elise
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
Stevens, Hannah
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
1.4%
Adams, Claire
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.4%
Seidt, Asia
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Toussaint, Kira
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Rockett, Alexandra
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Nevalainen, Lotta
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Galyer, Danielle
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Caldwell, Courtney
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
200 Medley Relay
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Stanford University
53.5%
39.2%
5.9%
0.5%
University of California, Berkeley
41.5%
47.2%
8.0%
2.5%
University of Arizona
2.8%
8.0%
32.8%
25.0%
North Carolina State University
1.5%
3.1%
35.1%
28.2%
University of Southern California
0.3%
0.6%
6.7%
15.8%
University of Georgia
0.2%
0.8%
8.5%
21.4%
University of Texas at Austin
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
1.4%
Texas A&M University, College Station
0.0%
0.3%
1.1%
3.4%
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.2%
Indiana University, Bloomington
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
University of Virginia
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
University of Louisville
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.5%
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
University of Akron
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
1650 Free
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Ledecky, Kathleen
99.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
Smith, Leah
0.3%
98.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Moore, Hannah
0.2%
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
Zeiger, Brooke
0.0%
0.3%
22.5%
31.8%
Byrnes, Megan
0.0%
0.3%
9.4%
13.4%
Ryan, G
0.0%
0.2%
45.5%
24.9%
Runge, Cierra
0.0%
0.2%
17.3%
18.5%
Muller, Rachel
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Mann, Rebecca
0.0%
0.0%
1.7%
5.7%
Bi, Yirong
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
2.6%
Clary, Lindsey
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.8%
Stevens, Leah
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
Cox, Hannah
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Neidigh, Ashley
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Drabot, Katherine
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Valley, Danielle
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Miller, Genevieve
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
200 Back
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Baker, Kathleen
94.3%
4.0%
1.4%
0.2%
Hu, Janet
4.0%
53.3%
26.2%
9.9%
Bilquist, Amy
0.9%
19.5%
35.2%
21.9%
Zevnik, Alexia
0.6%
15.3%
19.8%
27.0%
Galyer, Danielle
0.2%
3.7%
4.8%
5.4%
Seidt, Asia
0.0%
1.1%
4.9%
11.7%
Adams, Claire
0.0%
1.1%
1.7%
4.6%
Howe, Ally
0.0%
0.6%
1.9%
4.3%
Karosas, Tasija
0.0%
0.6%
1.4%
3.4%
Goss, Kennedy
0.0%
0.5%
2.5%
9.1%
Glover, Mackenzie
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Small, Meghan
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
Bratton, Lisa
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
Smiddy, Clara
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
Szekely, Alexandra
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Stevens, Hannah
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Voss, Erin
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Stewart, Kylie
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
100 Free
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Manuel, Simone
95.4%
4.5%
0.0%
0.0%
Comerford, Mallory
1.8%
25.4%
28.5%
24.7%
Smoliga, Olivia
1.5%
40.7%
25.3%
17.8%
Weitzeil, Abbigail
0.8%
17.9%
16.7%
19.8%
Neal, Lia
0.3%
10.9%
26.4%
26.4%
Caldwell, Courtney
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Van Landeghem, Chantal
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
1.1%
Osman, Farida
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
2.6%
Perry, Ky-lee
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Hansson, Louise
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
6.0%
Li, Zhesi
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Millard, Rebecca
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
Burchill, Veronica
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadett
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Apostalon, Anika
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Duffield, Krista
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Gastaldello, Beryl
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Nevalainen, Lotta
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
200 Breast
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
King, Lillia
90.7%
9.3%
0.3%
0.0%
Smith, Kierra
8.8%
82.5%
5.4%
1.6%
Simon, Laura
0.2%
0.3%
2.2%
5.4%
Brumbaum, Kayla
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Pickrem, Sydney
0.0%
1.1%
15.6%
15.8%
Cottrell, Andrea
0.0%
0.9%
7.6%
10.5%
Scott, Riley
0.0%
0.8%
28.8%
23.1%
Kansakoski, Silja
0.0%
0.6%
11.5%
11.5%
Galat, Bethany
0.0%
0.5%
1.4%
3.3%
Cox, Madisyn
0.0%
0.3%
3.6%
6.4%
McGregor, Ashley
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
1.2%
Vose, Kirsten
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
Dirrane, Kersten
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Pierce, Natalie
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Vargo, Taylor
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Escobedo, Emily
0.2%
3.7%
23.2%
20.0%
Wittenauer-Lee, Blaise
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
200 Fly
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Eastin, Ella
89.1%
8.7%
1.6%
0.5%
Gibson, Sarah
7.8%
44.2%
29.1%
12.7%
McLaughlin, Kathryn
1.1%
15.6%
21.2%
14.8%
Britt, Chelsea
0.8%
11.6%
18.0%
23.3%
Wright, Madison
0.6%
15.1%
16.4%
21.6%
Jones, Kaitlyn
0.5%
3.7%
7.9%
13.0%
Dalesandro, Gia
0.2%
0.5%
2.9%
5.1%
Kingsley, Megan
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
Thomas, Noemie
0.0%
0.2%
0.8%
4.8%
Engel, Lindsey
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
Case, Lauren
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
1.1%
Marrkand, Jennifer
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
1.1%
Rule, Remedy
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.9%
Oglesby, Grace
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Nazieblo, Klaudia
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
Yambor-Maul, Alyssa
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
400 Free Relay
Stanford University
98.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
University of California, Berkeley
0.9%
60.6%
23.1%
11.1%
University of Southern California
0.6%
31.1%
41.8%
16.7%
North Carolina State University
0.3%
4.8%
18.1%
32.7%
University of Georgia
0.2%
1.9%
14.2%
33.6%
University of Louisville
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
3.7%
University of Texas at Austin
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
1.2%
Texas A&M University, College Station
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
University of Wisconsin, Madison
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
Entries By Similarity to Entire Field
Most Similar
Entry
Similarity
1
CaribbeanSwimmer
37.01
2
dizzyd247
36.63
3
RetiredSpeedo
36.62
4
redpanda
36.47
5
eriktheswimmer
36.38
6
chlorine.queen
36.28
7
Scotty W
36.25
8
gspurz
36.22
9
Emily M
36.19
10
Swong14
36.19
Least Similar (among entries that filled out all the events)
There’s obviously one person who picked can states best swimmer in each event to win haha. They had votes for the winner in everything but the 200 fly
All my picks for the pick em were terrible >_< I'm so unfamiliar with women's d1 I hope there's a men's d1 pick em