What SwimSwam Readers Predict at Women D1 NCAA’s: Pick’em Analysis

by Andrew Mering 2

March 15th, 2017 College, News

There is a theory in economics that under certain circumstances combining the opinions of a large group of people can predict the future better than the most informed experts can on their own. By that logic perhaps the best way to predict the results of the upcoming NCAA women’s championships is to look at the 656 entries in the pick ’em contest. I included a table below with the collective predictions of the contest for each event.

-The biggest favorites are the Stanford 800 Free relay (99.7% picked them first), Katie Ledecky in the 1650 (99.5%), Lilly King in the 100 Breast (99.4%), Katie Ledecky in the 500 Free (99.2%), the Stanford 400 Free Relay (98%), and Simone Manuel in the 100 Free (95.4%).

-The weakest favorites are Janet Hu in the 100 Fly (45.1% picked to finish first), Stanford in the 200 Medley Relay (53.5%), Ally Howe in the 100 Back (58.3%), Stanford in the 200 Free Relay (65.3%)

-For each person that entered I added up the field’s percentage for each of their answers. The highest numbers were the most similar to the field as a whole. The lowest were the most divergent. The most similar to the consensus was CarribeanSwimmer with 37.01 followed by dizzyd247 with 36.63, and RetiredSpeedo with 36.62. The least representative (among entries that actually filled out all the events) was Aris with 7.57 followed by TAY85 with 18.34, and Debarino with 19.63. The top ten most and least similar are in tables all the way at the bottom of the article.

Complete entries if you want to review your entries (or anyone else’s entries)

Pick ’em Predictions

The percentages are the proportion of entires that picked that swimmer/team to finish in that place

800 Free Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Stanford University 99.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
University of Southern California 0.2% 11.6% 49.3% 24.3%
North Carolina State University 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
University of California, Berkeley 0.0% 81.7% 14.1% 2.9%
University of Michigan 0.0% 4.3% 25.8% 37.8%
University of Virginia 0.0% 1.1% 6.3% 21.5%
University of Texas at Austin 0.0% 0.6% 3.6% 7.1%
University of Georgia 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.2%
Texas A&M University, College Station 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 3.4%
University of Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
University of Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

200 Free Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Stanford University 65.3% 28.7% 5.9% 0.0%
University of California, Berkeley 31.4% 55.8% 11.0% 0.9%
University of Georgia 2.0% 13.9% 67.2% 15.6%
North Carolina State University 0.9% 1.4% 14.1% 55.9%
Auburn University 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7%
University of Texas at Austin 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4%
University of Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 13.0%
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 7.9%
University of Tennessee, Knoxville 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4%
University of Wisconsin, Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
University of Southern California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
The Ohio State University 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Texas A&M University, College Station 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
University of Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

500 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Ledecky, Kathleen 99.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Smith, Leah 0.2% 98.6% 1.1% 0.2%
Bi, Yirong 0.2% 0.3% 10.6% 12.2%
Evans, Joanna 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 2.2%
Moore, Hannah 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Meitz, Kaersten 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan, G 0.0% 0.5% 15.4% 33.1%
Drabot, Katherine 0.0% 0.3% 17.9% 18.7%
Muller, Rachel 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Runge, Cierra 0.0% 0.0% 45.5% 16.1%
McLaughlin, Kathryn 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 10.2%
Comerford, Mallory 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.2%
Cox, Hannah 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Rasmus, Claire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Byrnes, Megan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Mann, Rebecca 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

200 IM

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastin, Ella 71.6% 21.5% 6.0% 0.5%
Baker, Kathleen 18.3% 43.4% 30.3% 5.4%
Cox, Madisyn 9.5% 29.2% 36.5% 14.5%
Pickrem, Sydney 0.3% 0.9% 6.3% 27.5%
Jones, Kaitlyn 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 2.9%
Zevnik, Alexia 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 1.8%
Small, Meghan 0.0% 2.6% 11.8% 24.0%
King, Lillia 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 2.0%
Hansson, Louise 0.0% 0.5% 3.4% 13.8%
Galat, Bethany 0.0% 0.5% 2.8% 5.1%
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadett 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.4%
Brumbaum, Kayla 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Howe, Ally 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Vose, Kirsten 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Seidt, Asia 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Malone, Kristin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

50 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Manuel, Simone 82.2% 16.9% 0.6% 0.0%
Weitzeil, Abbigail 15.8% 53.9% 19.5% 6.6%
Smoliga, Olivia 1.2% 17.5% 43.4% 18.0%
Li, Zhesi 0.3% 5.8% 7.7% 18.9%
Osman, Farida 0.2% 4.8% 20.9% 36.1%
Perry, Ky-lee 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Millard, Rebecca 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Neal, Lia 0.0% 0.5% 5.5% 9.8%
Banic, Madeline 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 4.5%
Mack, Linnea 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%
Caldwell, Courtney 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Van Landeghem, Chantal 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.9%
Konopka, Katrina 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7%
Apostalon, Anika 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Bilquist, Amy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Nevalainen, Lotta 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Gastaldello, Beryl 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Labonge, Natalie 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

400 Medley Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Stanford University 90.9% 7.1% 1.1% 0.8%
University of California, Berkeley 7.6% 74.6% 11.5% 3.3%
University of Southern California 0.5% 11.5% 49.0% 18.0%
North Carolina State University 0.3% 3.9% 17.0% 30.3%
Indiana University, Bloomington 0.3% 1.4% 15.1% 30.3%
University of Texas at Austin 0.2% 0.9% 2.3% 7.9%
University of Virginia 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
University of Georgia 0.2% 0.0% 2.5% 4.5%
Texas A&M University, College Station 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 3.1%
University of Tennessee, Knoxville 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
University of Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6%
University of Missouri, Columbia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Boise State University 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

400 IM

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastin, Ella 89.4% 9.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Cox, Madisyn 8.4% 62.5% 19.8% 6.0%
Pickrem, Sydney 1.5% 14.9% 22.8% 30.4%
Galat, Bethany 0.5% 5.4% 13.9% 16.2%
Moore, Hannah 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Szekely, Alexandra 0.0% 5.1% 27.8% 20.7%
Zeiger, Brooke 0.0% 1.2% 9.9% 14.0%
Small, Meghan 0.0% 0.6% 2.2% 3.9%
Cameron, Emily 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4%
Clary, Lindsey 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 5.7%
Gyorgy, Reka 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Li, Celina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Samardzic, Matea 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Bratton, Lisa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Faulconer, Savanna 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

100 Fly

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Hu, Janet 45.1% 33.8% 15.6% 4.3%
Hansson, Louise 19.0% 22.2% 21.0% 19.3%
Osman, Farida 18.0% 23.1% 25.3% 15.3%
Thomas, Noemie 9.4% 9.3% 18.8% 23.3%
Gibson, Sarah 4.9% 5.2% 7.1% 13.9%
Dalesandro, Gia 2.6% 3.5% 8.3% 11.6%
Moffitt, Hellen 0.5% 2.0% 1.7% 6.5%
Britt, Chelsea 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 2.9%
Li, Zhesi 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.7%
Duffield, Krista 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Banic, Madeline 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
Burchill, Veronica 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Labonge, Natalie 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jones, Kaitlyn 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Rule, Remedy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Erasmus, Marne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Goldman, Leah 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

200 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Ledecky, Kathleen 87.9% 11.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Manuel, Simone 11.0% 84.6% 2.8% 0.3%
Comerford, Mallory 0.8% 3.2% 72.8% 11.4%
Rasmus, Claire 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Muller, Rachel 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Smith, Leah 0.0% 0.2% 8.0% 25.0%
McLaughlin, Kathryn 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9%
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadett 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 33.3%
Runge, Cierra 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 15.7%
Neal, Lia 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 9.7%
Keire, Jacqueline 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2%
Drabot, Katherine 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5%
Goss, Kennedy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Raab, Meaghan 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Vredeveld, Kristen 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Weitzeil, Abbigail 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Deloof, Gabrielle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

100 Breast

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
King, Lillia 99.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierce, Natalie 0.2% 22.1% 29.0% 21.4%
Cottrell, Andrea 0.2% 16.2% 19.4% 16.6%
Brumbaum, Kayla 0.2% 2.0% 3.0% 7.3%
Horejsi, Lindsey 0.2% 1.1% 1.9% 4.5%
Simon, Laura 0.0% 39.4% 26.7% 18.3%
Kansakoski, Silja 0.0% 13.8% 14.1% 21.9%
Smith, Kierra 0.0% 3.6% 2.5% 4.5%
Scott, Riley 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 2.6%
Ross, Katharine 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8%
Sougstad, Emma 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Carlson, Maria 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Caneta, Jorie 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Tafuto, Vivian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Vose, Kirsten 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Escobedo, Emily 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.1%

100 Back

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Howe, Ally 58.3% 26.1% 10.5% 2.8%
Baker, Kathleen 32.8% 42.4% 19.1% 4.6%
Smoliga, Olivia 5.7% 14.4% 35.6% 32.5%
Hu, Janet 2.3% 15.6% 28.4% 33.6%
Bilquist, Amy 0.6% 0.9% 3.1% 9.1%
Mack, Linnea 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% 7.9%
Zevnik, Alexia 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 4.8%
Karosas, Tasija 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9%
Haan, Elise 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Stevens, Hannah 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4%
Adams, Claire 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4%
Seidt, Asia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Toussaint, Kira 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Rockett, Alexandra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Nevalainen, Lotta 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Galyer, Danielle 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Caldwell, Courtney 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

200 Medley Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Stanford University 53.5% 39.2% 5.9% 0.5%
University of California, Berkeley 41.5% 47.2% 8.0% 2.5%
University of Arizona 2.8% 8.0% 32.8% 25.0%
North Carolina State University 1.5% 3.1% 35.1% 28.2%
University of Southern California 0.3% 0.6% 6.7% 15.8%
University of Georgia 0.2% 0.8% 8.5% 21.4%
University of Texas at Austin 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.4%
Texas A&M University, College Station 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 3.4%
University of Tennessee, Knoxville 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2%
Indiana University, Bloomington 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8%
University of Virginia 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
University of Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5%
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
University of Akron 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

1650 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Ledecky, Kathleen 99.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Smith, Leah 0.3% 98.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Moore, Hannah 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
Zeiger, Brooke 0.0% 0.3% 22.5% 31.8%
Byrnes, Megan 0.0% 0.3% 9.4% 13.4%
Ryan, G 0.0% 0.2% 45.5% 24.9%
Runge, Cierra 0.0% 0.2% 17.3% 18.5%
Muller, Rachel 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Mann, Rebecca 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 5.7%
Bi, Yirong 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 2.6%
Clary, Lindsey 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8%
Stevens, Leah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Cox, Hannah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Neidigh, Ashley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Drabot, Katherine 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Valley, Danielle 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Miller, Genevieve 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

200 Back

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baker, Kathleen 94.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.2%
Hu, Janet 4.0% 53.3% 26.2% 9.9%
Bilquist, Amy 0.9% 19.5% 35.2% 21.9%
Zevnik, Alexia 0.6% 15.3% 19.8% 27.0%
Galyer, Danielle 0.2% 3.7% 4.8% 5.4%
Seidt, Asia 0.0% 1.1% 4.9% 11.7%
Adams, Claire 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 4.6%
Howe, Ally 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 4.3%
Karosas, Tasija 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 3.4%
Goss, Kennedy 0.0% 0.5% 2.5% 9.1%
Glover, Mackenzie 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Small, Meghan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Bratton, Lisa 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5%
Smiddy, Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Szekely, Alexandra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Stevens, Hannah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Voss, Erin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Stewart, Kylie 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

100 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Manuel, Simone 95.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Comerford, Mallory 1.8% 25.4% 28.5% 24.7%
Smoliga, Olivia 1.5% 40.7% 25.3% 17.8%
Weitzeil, Abbigail 0.8% 17.9% 16.7% 19.8%
Neal, Lia 0.3% 10.9% 26.4% 26.4%
Caldwell, Courtney 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Van Landeghem, Chantal 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1%
Osman, Farida 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 2.6%
Perry, Ky-lee 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Hansson, Louise 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 6.0%
Li, Zhesi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Millard, Rebecca 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Burchill, Veronica 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadett 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Apostalon, Anika 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Duffield, Krista 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Gastaldello, Beryl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Nevalainen, Lotta 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

200 Breast

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
King, Lillia 90.7% 9.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Smith, Kierra 8.8% 82.5% 5.4% 1.6%
Simon, Laura 0.2% 0.3% 2.2% 5.4%
Brumbaum, Kayla 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Pickrem, Sydney 0.0% 1.1% 15.6% 15.8%
Cottrell, Andrea 0.0% 0.9% 7.6% 10.5%
Scott, Riley 0.0% 0.8% 28.8% 23.1%
Kansakoski, Silja 0.0% 0.6% 11.5% 11.5%
Galat, Bethany 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 3.3%
Cox, Madisyn 0.0% 0.3% 3.6% 6.4%
McGregor, Ashley 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2%
Vose, Kirsten 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Dirrane, Kersten 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Pierce, Natalie 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Vargo, Taylor 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Escobedo, Emily 0.2% 3.7% 23.2% 20.0%
Wittenauer-Lee, Blaise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

200 Fly

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Eastin, Ella 89.1% 8.7% 1.6% 0.5%
Gibson, Sarah 7.8% 44.2% 29.1% 12.7%
McLaughlin, Kathryn 1.1% 15.6% 21.2% 14.8%
Britt, Chelsea 0.8% 11.6% 18.0% 23.3%
Wright, Madison 0.6% 15.1% 16.4% 21.6%
Jones, Kaitlyn 0.5% 3.7% 7.9% 13.0%
Dalesandro, Gia 0.2% 0.5% 2.9% 5.1%
Kingsley, Megan 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Thomas, Noemie 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.8%
Engel, Lindsey 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Case, Lauren 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1%
Marrkand, Jennifer 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1%
Rule, Remedy 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9%
Oglesby, Grace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Nazieblo, Klaudia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Yambor-Maul, Alyssa 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

400 Free Relay

Stanford University 98.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
University of California, Berkeley 0.9% 60.6% 23.1% 11.1%
University of Southern California 0.6% 31.1% 41.8% 16.7%
North Carolina State University 0.3% 4.8% 18.1% 32.7%
University of Georgia 0.2% 1.9% 14.2% 33.6%
University of Louisville 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 3.7%
University of Texas at Austin 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2%
Texas A&M University, College Station 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6%
University of Wisconsin, Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%

Entries By Similarity to Entire Field

Most Similar

Entry Similarity
1 CaribbeanSwimmer 37.01
2 dizzyd247 36.63
3 RetiredSpeedo 36.62
4 redpanda 36.47
5 eriktheswimmer 36.38
6 chlorine.queen 36.28
7 Scotty W 36.25
8 gspurz 36.22
9 Emily M 36.19
10 Swong14 36.19

Least Similar (among entries that filled out all the events)

Entry Similarity
1 Aris 7.57
2 TAY85 18.34
3 Debarino 19.63
4 kikilicious 21.72
5 Cassie_50 21.76
6 Hollymarie 22.69
7 BNTW99 23.05
8 swimmerbacktroke12 23.20
9 sfetes 23.21
10 DannyF 23.40

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Swim

All my picks for the pick em were terrible >_< I'm so unfamiliar with women's d1 I hope there's a men's d1 pick em

Klorn8d

There’s obviously one person who picked can states best swimmer in each event to win haha. They had votes for the winner in everything but the 200 fly

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