SwimSwam Pulse: Readers Correctly Predicted 1:37 200 Fly, 1:35 200 Back Barriers Would Fall

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.

Our most recent polls asked SwimSwam readers which men’s barrier would be the next to go down (poll issued prior to Men’s NCAAs):

Question: After Gretchen broke 47 seconds in the 100 fly, which men’s barrier is next to fall?

RESULTS

• 200 fly (1:37) – 41.8%
• 200 back (1:35) – 29.6%
• 100 breast (49) – 11.6%
• 200 free (1:28) – 10.8%
• 100 back (43) – 5.0%
• Other – 1.3%

Following Gretchen Walsh‘s earth-shattering swim in the 100 butterfly at the Women’s NCAA Championships, becoming the first swimmer under the 47-second barrier (46.97) after she was already the only one sub-48, we got excited about the prospects of more thresholds being surpassed at the men’s meet.

In the days leading up to Men’s NCAAs, we asked SwimSwam readers which barrier they felt would be the next to go down, whether it be at the 2025 championships or into the future.

Two of the five barriers included in the poll ended up going down at Men’s NCAAs, and over 71% of votes cast picked one of those options.

Leading the way with 41.8% of votes was 1:37 in the 200 fly, with five men having broken 1:38 a combined six times heading into the 2025 NCAAs, including Luca Urlando breaking the all-time record in a January dual meet in 1:37.17.

Urlando, who broke Jack Conger‘s previous mark of 1:37.35 from 2017, then was .01 off his new record at SECs in February (1:37.18) and even matched Conger’s time in the prelims at NCAAs to tie for the third-fastest swim ever.

Then came the NCAA final, where Urlando blew the doors off the field over the first 150, turning in a stunning 1:09.74, 1.37 seconds under record pace, before bringing it home in 26.69 to clock 1:36.43, becoming the first man under 1:37.

All-Time Performances, Men’s 200 Fly (SCY)

1. Luca Urlando (Georgia), 1:36.43 – 2025 NCAAs
2. Luca Urlando (Georgia), 1:37.17 – 2025 Georgia v. Tennessee
3. Luca Urlando (Georgia), 1:37.18 – 2025 SECs
4. Luca Urlando (Georgia) / Jack Conger (Texas), 1:37.35 – 2025 NCAAs / 2017 NCAAs
5. –
6. Nicolas Albiero (Louisville), 1:37.92 – 2022 ACCs
7. Ilya Kharun (ASU), 1:37.93 – 2024 Stanford v. ASU
8. Joseph Schooling (Texas), 1:37.97 – 2016 NCAAs
9. Dare Rose (Cal), 1:38.04 – 2025 NCAAs
10. Jack Conger (Texas), 1:38.06 – 2016 NCAAs

That proved the 41.8% of voters who picked the 200 fly as the next to fall correct, although, technically, the 29.6% that voted for 1:35 to fall in the 200 back edged them out.

In the 200 back final, three events before Urlando’s 200 fly, Texas’ Hubert Kos blazed his way to a time of 1:34.21, obliterating Destin Lasco‘s previous NCAA and U.S. Open Record of 1:35.37 set in 2024.

Prior to last season, Ryan Murphy held the all-time record for eight years, having gone 1:35.73 in 2016, and the only other men who had broken 1:36 were Shaine Casas (1:35.75) and Lasco (1:35.87).

In early 2024, Kos broke Murphy’s record in 1:35.69 at the Pac-12 Championships before Lasco took it down at NCAAs.

At the 2025 SECs, Florida’s Jonny Marshall added his name to the sub-1:36 club, clocking 1:35.85 to make it five men under 1:36, before Kos broke through the 1:35 marker at NCAAs.

All-Time Performances, Men’s 200 Back (SCY)

1. Hubert Kos (Texas), 1:34.21 – 2025 NCAAs
2. Destin Lasco (Cal), 1:35.37 – 2024 NCAAs
3. Hubert Kos (ASU), 1:35.69 – 2024 Pac-12s
4. Ryan Murphy (Cal), 1:35.73 – 2016 NCAAs
5. Shaine Casas (Texas A&M), 1:35.75 – 2021 NCAAs
6. Jonny Marshall (Florida), 1:35.85 – 2025 SECs
7. Destin Lasco (Cal), 1:35.87 – 2023 NCAAs
8. Hubert Kos (ASU), 1:35.90 – 2024 NCAAs
9. Destin Lasco (Cal), 1:35.99 – 2021 NCAAs
10. Destin Lasco (Cal), 1:36.05 – 2024 NCAAs

The leading poll option among events that didn’t see the next barrier fall last week was 49 seconds in the 100 breast, where Florida’s Julian Smith set a new NCAA, U.S. Open and American Record at SECs in a time of 49.51.

Smith won the NCAA title in 49.55, and was the only swimmer sub-50 in the final, but did throw down a 48.85 split in the 400 medley relay (also sub-49 at SECs in the relay), showing that a sub-49 flat start swim could be in the cards next season.

Not too far behind the 100 breast in the poll was the 200 free, where the 1:28 barrier picked up more than 10% of votes after 1:29 was broken for the first time last season.

Dean Farris set a new record of 1:29.15 at the 2019 NCAAs, and that mark stood until Luke Hobson led Texas off in the 800 free relay at last season’s NCAAs in 1:29.13. Then, in the next heat, Leon Marchand led off ASU in 1:28.97, becoming the first man sub-1:29.

In the individual 200 free at the 2024 NCAAs, Hobson brought the record down to 1:28.81, and then this season, Hobson was the only swimmer under 1:29, winning his third straight 200 free title in a new all-time record of 1:28.33.

Only 5% of readers voted for sub-43 in the 100 back, but Kos got close, clocking 43.20 to break Urlando’s record of 43.35 which had stood since 2022.

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Which team outperformed expectations the most this season?

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