SwimSwam Pulse: 68.9% Correctly Predicted Aussie Women Would Break WR At Trials

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers what the most likely world record scenario would be between the Australian and U.S. Olympic Trials:

Question: Will any world records fall between the AUS and US Olympic Trials? If so, which is most likely:


  • Yes – AUS women – 68.9%
  • Yes – USA women – 18.5%
  • No – 10.1%
  • Yes – USA men – 1.8%
  • Yes – AUS men – 0.7%

The added pressure and nerves can often lead to slower times at the Olympic Trials, but that hasn’t been the case for the Australian women this week.

Our latest poll asked SwimSwam readers which gender was most likely to break a world record at the Trials between the Australians and Americans, and the Aussie women overwhelmingly came out on top with 68.9% of votes.

That prediction turned out to be correct, as Ariarne Titmus shattered the world record in the women’s 200 freestyle in 1:52.23, while former record holder Mollie O’Callaghan also went under the existing mark of 1:52.85 in 1:52.48.

Titmus also narrowly missed her world record in the 400 free (3:55.44), while Kaylee McKeown also had a couple of close calls with the #2 performances in history in the 100 back (57.41) and 200 back (2:03.30).

The only other option that got a decent chunk of votes was for the American women at 18.5%.

The world record candidates include Torri Huske in the 100 fly, Kate Douglass in the 200 IM, and Regan Smith in the 100 and 200 back. We also can never count out Katie Ledecky, though she’ll be saving her best for the Olympics with qualification a foregone conclusion.

Ten percent didn’t think we’d see a world record, while the American and Australian men combined for just 2.5% of votes.

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Pollwhich asks: Which is more likely, Ledecky beating Titmus in the 400 free, or Titmus beating Ledecky in the 800 free?

Who is more likely to win three individual golds in Paris?

View Results

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A3 Performance is an independently-owned, performance swimwear company built on a passion for swimming, athletes, and athletic performance. We encourage swimmers to swim better and faster at all ages and levels, from beginners to Olympians.  Driven by a genuine leader and devoted staff that are passionate about swimming and service, A3 Performance strives to inspire and enrich the sport of swimming with innovative and impactful products that motivate swimmers to be their very best – an A3 Performer.

The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.

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Genevieve Nnaji
1 month ago

Not a good poll.

Should have used Kaylee/Summer instead.

1 month ago

The answer is neither. Both essentially have a less than 1% chance of winning 3 individual gold. Kaylee and Summer are both much more likely

Genevieve Nnaji
1 month ago

Neither Katie nor Ariarne will win 3 individual gold.

1 month ago

this poll is BS. I guess I have to say Ledecky, but it seems pretty impossible for her to win the 400 or Titmus the 800. I guess if something went wrong with Ledecky, Titmus would have an easy win, while Ledecky would still have to contend with Summer for the 400 if a disaster fell upon Titmus. But if everyone is healthy, I can’t see Ledecky losing the 800. Summer might choke in the 400, but Titmus won’t. Unless Ledecky really has some speed up her sleeve, I’d give her about a 5% chance of winning 3 and Titmus more like 2%.

it's ya buoy
1 month ago

I think Kaylee Mckeown and Summer McIntosh both have a better chance at winning 3 gold medals than either Titmus or Ledecky

Last edited 1 month ago by it's ya buoy
Steve Nolan
1 month ago

Oof this is a good poll.

I always thought it made sense for Titmus to sort of move “up” to the 800 – beating Ledecky in a different event in two straight Olympics would be insane – but that doesn’t seem like it happened yet, lol.

I think it’s gotta be Ledecky. She’s a massive favorite in the 1500, nearly that level in the 800. Titmus is probably a slight favorite in both the 200 and 400.

So for it to be Titmus, you’ve gotta think she’s much, much more likely to win the 800 than Ledecky is the 400.

M d e
Reply to  Steve Nolan
1 month ago

I think neither of them have any real chance of winning 3.

Even if Titmus misfired in the 400 Ledecky would still have to beat summer.

1 month ago

There is practically no way that Ledecky is beating both Titmus and McIntosh in the 400 and there’s also really no way that Titmus is winning 3. For Titmus specifically, I’d say the most likely outcome is 1 gold given the competition in both of her 2 best events

1 month ago

This isn’t a good poll so I’ll give it a miss.

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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