SwimSwam Pulse: 65% Pick Men’s 100 Fly Record To Fall in 2019

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers

RESULTS

Question: Which of the following world records will fall in the year 2019?

• Men’s 100 fly – 49.82 – 65.6%
• Men’s 50 free – 20.91 – 15.9%
• Women’s 200 breast – 2:19.11 – 13.4%
• Men’s 100 free – 46.91 – 5.1%

Almost two-thirds of voters predicted that the men’s 100 fly world record was mostly likely to fall in our latest poll, which picked four relatively difficult – but possible – records to be broken next year.

Caeleb Dressel was incredibly close to breaking this record a year ago, going 49.86 at Worlds. The record stands at 49.82 from Michael Phelps in 2009. He dropped another seven tenths of a second in short course yards (43.58 to 42.80) this past year, but then had a lackluster summer that only saw him go 50.50 at best in long course. A motorcycle injury apparently hampered Dressel’s summer, but a large portion of voters were still confident he’d rebound in 2019 to break Michael Phelps‘ world record.

The men’s 50 free garnered 15.9% of the votes. There, we have two main contenders: Dressel and Great Britain’s Ben Proud. Dressel was 21.15 last summer, not far from the 20.91 world record set by Cesar Cielo in 2009. Dressel was off in this event, too, this summer, going just 21.67, but also dropped his short course yards time from 18.20 to an unprecedented 17.63. Proud, meanwhile, went 21.1 twice this year, first a 21.16 at Sette Colli, then a 21.11 at the European Championships.

The women’s 200 breast came in next, with 13% of the votes. That is the only record on this list not set during the super-suited era. It stands at 2:19.11 from Denmark’s Rikke Moller Pedersen in 2013. Since then, no one has come within a half-second of that record. Moller Pedersen went 2:19.61 in 2014, and Yulia Efimova 2:19.64 last summer. Outside of Turkey’s Viktoria Gunes, who went 2:19.64 as a teenager in 2015 but hasn’t been back to that time since, and Japan’s Rie Kaneto (2:19.65 in 2016), no one has even broken 2:20. There’s also not a clear-cut world favorite in that event yet, making it tougher to project a record-breaking swim.

The men’s 100 free only got 5% of the votes in our poll. Dressel was close last summer (47.17), but few active swimmers have come close to the 46.91 set by Cielo back in 2009. Cameron McEvoy of Australia was 47.04 in 2016, but hasn’t returned to that speed. Dressel had an off summer and didn’t even break 48. James Magnussen went 47.10 in 2012, but hasn’t looked that good in years, despite only being 27 years old. The next-closest contenders are American Nathan Adrian (47.5 in 2012 but likely getting towards the later years of his career) and Australian youngster Kyle Chalmers (47.58 in 2016, but hasn’t broken 48 since having heart surgery last year).

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters which of this summer’s major meets they found most impressive:

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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner