SwimSwam Pulse: 65% Pick Men’s 100 Fly Record To Fall in 2019

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers


Question: Which of the following world records will fall in the year 2019?

  • Men’s 100 fly – 49.82 – 65.6%
  • Men’s 50 free – 20.91 – 15.9%
  • Women’s 200 breast – 2:19.11 – 13.4%
  • Men’s 100 free – 46.91 – 5.1%

Almost two-thirds of voters predicted that the men’s 100 fly world record was mostly likely to fall in our latest poll, which picked four relatively difficult – but possible – records to be broken next year.

Caeleb Dressel was incredibly close to breaking this record a year ago, going 49.86 at Worlds. The record stands at 49.82 from Michael Phelps in 2009. He dropped another seven tenths of a second in short course yards (43.58 to 42.80) this past year, but then had a lackluster summer that only saw him go 50.50 at best in long course. A motorcycle injury apparently hampered Dressel’s summer, but a large portion of voters were still confident he’d rebound in 2019 to break Michael Phelps‘ world record.

The men’s 50 free garnered 15.9% of the votes. There, we have two main contenders: Dressel and Great Britain’s Ben ProudDressel was 21.15 last summer, not far from the 20.91 world record set by Cesar Cielo in 2009. Dressel was off in this event, too, this summer, going just 21.67, but also dropped his short course yards time from 18.20 to an unprecedented 17.63. Proud, meanwhile, went 21.1 twice this year, first a 21.16 at Sette Colli, then a 21.11 at the European Championships.

The women’s 200 breast came in next, with 13% of the votes. That is the only record on this list not set during the super-suited era. It stands at 2:19.11 from Denmark’s Rikke Moller Pedersen in 2013. Since then, no one has come within a half-second of that record. Moller Pedersen went 2:19.61 in 2014, and Yulia Efimova 2:19.64 last summer. Outside of Turkey’s Viktoria Guneswho went 2:19.64 as a teenager in 2015 but hasn’t been back to that time since, and Japan’s Rie Kaneto (2:19.65 in 2016), no one has even broken 2:20. There’s also not a clear-cut world favorite in that event yet, making it tougher to project a record-breaking swim.

The men’s 100 free only got 5% of the votes in our poll. Dressel was close last summer (47.17), but few active swimmers have come close to the 46.91 set by Cielo back in 2009. Cameron McEvoy of Australia was 47.04 in 2016, but hasn’t returned to that speed. Dressel had an off summer and didn’t even break 48. James Magnussen went 47.10 in 2012, but hasn’t looked that good in years, despite only being 27 years old. The next-closest contenders are American Nathan Adrian (47.5 in 2012 but likely getting towards the later years of his career) and Australian youngster Kyle Chalmers (47.58 in 2016, but hasn’t broken 48 since having heart surgery last year).


Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Pollwhich asks voters which of this summer’s major meets they found most impressive:

Which meet did you feel had the most impressive performances?

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A3 Performance is an independently-owned, performance swimwear company built on a passion for swimming, athletes, and athletic performance. We encourage swimmers to swim better and faster at all ages and levels, from beginners to Olympians.  Driven by a genuine leader and devoted staff that are passionate about swimming and service, A3 Performance strives to inspire and enrich the sport of swimming with innovative and impactful products that motivate swimmers to be their very best – an A3 Performer.

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Caeleb Dressel Will Win 9 Gold Medals in Tokyo
3 years ago

I tried to pick 50 free, 100 free and 100 fly, but it only let’s us pick 1. I believe all can go down.

Bear drinks beer

I bet 50 free will not go down even if Dressel is in good form.

Caeleb Dressel Will Win 9 Gold Medals in Tokyo
Reply to  Bear drinks beer
3 years ago

17.63 is just so fast, That’s 0.57 faster than what Dressel went in 2017 when he went 21.1. He probably would have gotten a 20.8 this year if not for his accident.


Yeah surely. Maybe even a 19.99…,

3 years ago

“and Australian youngster Kyle Chalmers.” please edit this, he’s the old man from Australia now.

Cheatin Vlad
3 years ago

The 100 fly had its scare, but will be safe in 2019.

3 years ago

100 fly world record might be difficult to go down.

Caeleb Dressel Will Win 9 Gold Medals in Tokyo
Reply to  Buona
3 years ago

23.31 26.55 were Dressel’s Splits. I believe he went out in 23.31 at Pan Pacs as well, but he died on the last 50, coming back in a 27.4


At the semis in Budapest he went out in 23.26. Had he went out like that in the final he would’ve gone 49.81!!


Next year 2019 worlds will be exciting with a few up & coming good swimmers. This event is getting more competitive. Schooling split for Asian Games is 23.79, 27.25.

Caeleb Dressel Will Win 9 Gold Medals in Tokyo
Reply to  Buona
3 years ago

Schooling’s not gonna go below 50.6 unless he does 200 fly training

3 years ago


3 years ago

Will Dressel swim IM?

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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