NCAA Cheat Sheet: Where Do Scores Project After Each Event at Women’s NCAAs?

Would a seed by any other name smell quite as sweet?

Seed scoring is a particularly-unique swimming pasttime. We know that the results won’t go exactly to seed, but that doesn’t make seedscoring any less valuable.

Specifically, scoring out finishes based on seed times gives us an expectation, a baseline, a starting point so that we know whether a team is doing well or not.

Yes the 20 points (or 40 points) scored by event winners are big in team scoring, but these meets are usually won and lost by the aggregation of the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place finishes, and specifically by who gets more of them.

Examining the seed scoring closely doesn’t box a team into its spot. Rather, it helps us, over a four-day meet, understand what we’re seeing. Did Texas score enough points on day 2 of the meet, especially with their 4 divers, to run away from Cal for 2nd place? Are they closing the gap on Virginia?

These are the kinds of questions that can be answered. Who has momentum and who doesn’t? Who has hit their taper and who’s hanging on for dear life?

In that vein, below are two versions of the 2021 Women’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships “scorecards,” or “cheatsheets” if you will.

They show, based only on swimming scoring, how many points each team is expected to score. Diving will impact this. So will tapers (or lack thereof).

Key Inflection Points to Note:

• The battle between SEC rivals Alabama and Georgia could be really interesting. The two teams should be back-and-forth early, before Alabama takes a big lead after the 200 medley relay. Then Georgia will spend the whole final day of racing trying to claw that back. If the Bulldogs don’t take a lead int0 that 200 medley relay (and that will be tough, with Alabama’s Rhyan White the favorite in the preceding event the 100 back), they’ll have a hard time catching the Crimson Tide.
• Another great battle for points is shaping up between the Big Ten Champions Ohio State and the SEC Champions Kentucky. Both teams are built better for conference meets than NCAA meets, but both will be chasing Maggie MacNeil and Michigan. Ohio State needs to find some points in the 200 breast and 200 fly late in the meet to counteract MacNeil’s 100 free. The Buckeyes have entries in both races, but they’re low seeds. If a Katherine Trace, for example, can jump into the points in the 200 fly, that would be spectacular for them.
• The Texas women should out-do Virginia and Cal in diving. The Cavaliers, with a lot of high seeds, don’t have much ‘upward’ room versus seed. Can the Texas women close that gap? They’ll have to take care of their business in the lanes to give the divers a chance. (See how Texas has done versus seed in prior years).

The Data

Download the Workbook using the menu items at the bottom of each chart to see graphs with hover-over data.

Scoring By Day

Scoring By Event