How Fast Will Caeleb Dressel Swim At U.S. Olympic Trials?

Gold Medal Minute presented by SwimOutlet.comOlympic swimming champion Caeleb Dressel  notched fast swims at the Mission Pro Swim, signaling he is on course for a great U.S. Olympic Trials in June:

Dressel Mission Pro Swim Times:

  • 50 free  – 21.83
  • 100 free – 48.82 (prelim swim, scratched the final to fly home early)
  • 200 free – 1:47.57
  • 100 fly – 51.61

In this interview Caeleb is his own worst critic, recapping his entire season. He also sheds some light on the pressures of being a swim star on run-up to the Olympic summer.

PREDICTIONS FOR U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS, VERSION TWO

Yes, I am playing the Dressel prediction game again. I was way too safe last time. See version one of my predictions:

  • 50 free – 21 point 3
  • 100 free – 47 point 2
  • 100 fly – 49 point 9
  • 200 free – prelims one – 1, 45 point 9

See my new predictions after seeing Dressel’s Mission Pro Swim races, and being heckled by SwimSwam commenters for being a wimp:

  • 50 free – 21 point 1
  • 100 free – 47 point 1
  • 100 fly – 49 point 7
  • 200 free – prelims only – 1, 45 point 2

But who cares what I think? It is all about  what you think. Give me your best swimming analysis.

Follow Caeleb Dressel on Instagram here. 

Follow Gold Medal Mel on Instagram here

RECENT EPISODES

This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

Opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the interviewed guests do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of the hosts, SwimSwam Partners, LLC and/or SwimSwam advertising partners.

In This Story

219
Leave a Reply

Subscribe
Notify of
219 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Thorpedo
1 year ago

This is probably the most stacked trials ever. First is pretty clear in the 50m and 100m free but after that it’s anyone’s guess who is on those relays.
I think Dressel goes 21.2 50m Free
47.0 100m free
As much as I’d love to see it I don’t see Dressel going sub 1:46 but I’d love to be proved wrong and see him get on that relay.
50.2 100m fly
Even if he is fully tapered I don’t think we will see his absolute best, he rises so well to big events, I think at the Olympics he sets times we couldn’t have even thought about, hopefully say good bye to those 50 and 100 free world records.

Bayliss
1 year ago

He is safe in the 50 free and 100 fly without a full taper for top 2, but with Held, Rooney, Apple, Farris, and Adrian, there is no way that he can risk a half taper at this trials in the 100.

Therefore full taper Dressel goes-
50 Free- 20.8 WR
100 Free- 46.8 WR
100 Fly- 49.9
200 Free- 1:44.5

Half Tapered Dressel-
50- 21.2
100 free- 47.4 (3rd behind Apple and Held)
100 Fly- 50.2
200 Free- 1:45.5

Daddio3
1 year ago

What is the logic behind having trials so close to the games? A Jan or Feb trial would provide opportunity forswimmers to taper for both and not have to risk slower games to ensure trial qualification. Must be something I am missing.

Admin
Reply to  Daddio3
1 year ago

A January or February Trials would mean going to war with the collegiate system that is the lifeblood of American swimming. That’s a bad game to play.

I can think of a few other benefits, but that one overrides everything.

Luigi
1 year ago

I am going to be conservative taking into account the pressure and the need not to show al his cards.
50 free – 21.2
100 free – 47.3
100 fly – 49.9
200 free – prelims only – 1.45.5

Corn Pop
1 year ago

Not very fast .

Last edited 1 year ago by Corn Pop
Troyy
Reply to  Corn Pop
1 year ago

Thanks for gracing us with your input Porn Cop.

Outside Smoke
1 year ago

The most impressive part of Dressel’s 1:47.3 last month was that he opened it in 52.76. You’re telling me he’s not shaving at least two full seconds off that opening 100 when tapered?

Dude’s going 1:44.

Joel
Reply to  Outside Smoke
1 year ago

I don’t get why everyone thinks he’s going to do a 1.44?

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Joel
1 year ago

Because historically he drops a ton of time with a taper. We all know he can back half as well as most in up to a 200. You’re telling me you don’t think he can go out in 50 without breathing hard?

Sprint Guy
1 year ago

When will this sport finally be about times And reaching the human speed limit in the water and not about medal counts????

Penguin
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

When competitors who have dedicated their whole lives to the sport stop caring about what they want as individual people and instead chase goals set by anonymous armchair commentators on fan sites.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Penguin
1 year ago

All I got from that is you enjoy keeping a sport from progressing. I’m sure there are plenty of people who would love to swim fast times and not be held back because of outdated training methods. Maybe the sport will start progressing once people start to open their eyes to all the possibilities and not be limited by things of the past old man.

There's no doubt that he's tightening up
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Guess you must hate Michael Phelps then huh…

Sprint Guy

No not at all. But his success only further proves my point. If a middle distance swimmer like Phelps can be world class in sprinting the 50 and 100 That doesn’t mean he’s good at sprinting. It means that the rest of the sprinters are not as good as they can be at sprinting.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

He was FAR from world class in the 50.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

Considering the fact that he lead of a 47.5 In Beijing. Let’s assume splits were 23.25 and 24.25. I’d say he could go 22.2 or faster. Which would have been within 1 second of Cielo’s 21.30. I’m track and field, the fastest middle distance runner David Rhudisha (800m) best 200m time would be around 22 flat aswell. Wanna know the difference between that and the 200m world at record at that time? 2.8 seconds. that’s what I’m talking about when I mean sprinters I’m swimming need to step it up in terms of training. If the case were true for swimming. That puts the 50m wr closer to 19.9. But it’s not cuz as swimmer we “LOVE ALL THEM YARDS… Read more »

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

I also like how you never responded to my response to this comment. Because you know I was right with my response.

Dudeman
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Phelps was only world class in the 100 and that was because his massive training base gave him the endurance to finish under 24.7. if they want to see the fastest sprinters they should make the 25m free a real event since that would be the only true way to judge it

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Dudeman
1 year ago

Again, only further proves my point. If a middle distance swimmer like Phelps can be world class in a sprint like the 100m free, then that means that all the true sprinters need to step up their game

Dudeman
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

“true sprinters” are really only 50 specialists, they fall apart as soon as they have to turn around. To take the 100 to the next level (46 mid-low) they have to have the speed AND endurance to go out and come back insanely fast, you don’t get that just from training pure sprints, otherwise MA would be the best 100 swimmer on the planet

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Dudeman
1 year ago

Dude to take the 100 to the next level we need to get the 50 down to 19 high. If someone can do that, they’ll take their 100 out in 21.0 and come back in 23.9 That swimmer won’t need a MASSIVE TRAINING BASE in order to come back in 23 high because that time will literally be 4 seconds slower than their best 50. Even right now, Caleb’s splits are 22.29 and 24.67 For 46.96 and a PB in the 50 of 21.04. Without training any more yards and only getting his His 50 to 19.90 which is possible again if he cut all the distance training, He would take out his 100 Splits to 21.1 and 24.67 which… Read more »

Xman
Reply to  Dudeman
1 year ago

Yep, we go fast until we have to breath 🙂

Yozhik
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

I totally agree with you, but swimming competition is also a race. It started this way. And that is what brings money to this sport. Many people who are watching swimming may not even know what the world record is unless they are shown the yellow line. But if they see the racing drama they got very excited. We have to accept this dualism: sports as a manifestation of human perfection and sport as a satisfaction of being better than someone else.

Last edited 1 year ago by Yozhik
fly fly
Reply to  Yozhik
1 year ago

second that

Sprint Guy
1 year ago

If someone gives me a logical argument as to why dropping the 200 and all other distance events wouldn’t a produce sub 20 50 free and sub 45 100 free by the next Olympics I’ll take all the downvotes given to me happily. Until then, quit hating cuz you know I’m right.

Jack
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Because Dressell hasn’t previously raced for the 200 and neither did: Adrian, Manadou, Ervin, Bernard, Proud, Jones, Fratus yet none of them have ever even been sightly close to them times which are 1/ 2 seconds faster than the world record. Your waffling.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Jack
1 year ago

Yeah but the man trains for the 200 and all the way up to the 400im. And all those other “sprinters” train very similar. Sprinting and distance are two physiologically different and COMPETING stimuli which means you can’t expect to have peak performance at both.

Yozhik
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Cate Campbell said once that if the distance was 101m she would dye. On the other hand Sarah Sjostrom holds impressive world records at 50 and 100 and has the third best ever performance in 200FR.
I know that male competition is more developed historically and there’s a physiological difference between male and female swimmers but when you bring physiology restriction as your main argument it would be interesting to hear what actually you mean by that.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Yozhik
1 year ago

In terms of physiology, your body adapts to the stimulus you put it under. Sprinting and Middle distance are two different stressors sport the body will have to spread out its energy adapting to both rather than using all of its energy to adapt to JUST SPRINTING. All these yards are holding sprinters back, both male and female because it’s literally the opposite of sprinting

Yozhik
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Well, your explanation doesn’t say clearly what the nature of biological restriction is that doesn’t allow the top 50m racers compete successfully at 100m distance not mentioning the longer ones. So I don’t see how training for 200m can hurt Dressel’s abilities to challenge world records at shorter distances. And I’m not talking about his overloaded program. It’s completely different issue.
But this comment section isn’t the place for such discussion, I guess. I myself would rather avoid the usage of the term “physiological difference” since I cannot define clearly what it is.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Yozhik
1 year ago

The SAID principle. Specific adaptation to imposed demands. If you demand speed from the body In Training. The body adapts to speed. If you demand endurance from the body you get endurance. If you combine both you get a combination of both. The best sprinters in the world rn still combine both but have a slight emphasis on only speed which is why I say the world record should be faster. Because no one has ever truly focused on pure speed in training in order to get a pure speed response from the body.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

You do realize that we’re not talking about a 10 second 100 m dash. There are other energy systems at play over a 45 second effort. And you realize that even if he were just swimming the 50 and 100, he’d also be doing 4 relays. “Just sprinting” doesn’t tap into those. And if you don’t believe me, ask MA, who’s 100’s (especially free) are far worse than his 50’s, when he swims nothing over a 50 at a time in practice. Or better yet, ask Alain Bernard who sent into hip swivel sink mode at 40 meters when he was Lezak’d.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

You do realize we are talking about a 20 second race?? Speed is a far more important factor than endurance ever will be. If a lifted improves his one rep max do you not think he would be able to lift more weight for 5 reps that he previously could??? Same applies for swimming. The faster the 50 becomes, the faster the 100 becomes. Alain Bernard has poor race execution not lack of training. And Michael Andrews 100 training was farrrr too middle distance to have any relevance towards building speed. I mean come one 20+ 50’s with 10 seconds rest? That’s a distance workout if I’ve ever heard of one. Doesn’t matter how fast you swim each 50. That’s… Read more »

Swimmer2
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

100 is closer to 200 in energy than the 50

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Swimmer2
1 year ago

Not at all. The 100 is only taken out 1 second slower than a swimmers best 50. The 200 (I’d swam correctly) is taken out 3 seconds slower than a swimmers best 100. That would make the first 50 1.5 seconds slower that a swimmers 50m PB.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Yozhik
1 year ago

And as far as Sarah sjostrom goes. Nothing against her, she is a fast freaking swimmer. But she is a middle distance athlete and if she excels at sprints as well as middle distance. Then that doesn’t mean she’s fast at sprints, it means the sprinters on the women’s side need to step up their training

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Can you do a 24.0 50 LCM fly?

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

No. But if a middle distance swimmer like Sarah can do that then A true sprinter’s world record should be closer to 22 seconds

AnEn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

You realize that one of the main reasons why those guys still train endurance is because it clearly helps with recovery? (which is especially important when you need to race many events over the course of a season/session)
Dressel for sure could be better in the 50 free if he would completely focus on it, butt sub 20 is absurd, that would be an improvement of almost 5 %. For comparison that would roughly be like Ledecky going 7:40 in the 800 free.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  AnEn
1 year ago

Ledecky already made those huge improvements in world records. It’s more like ledecky taking the 400m from 4 minutes plus to 3:56 is the equivalent of someone taking the 50 from 21 seconds to 19 seconds

Sprint Guy
Reply to  AnEn
1 year ago

Training for endurance does aid in improving recovery. But at the sacrifice of speed

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Jack
1 year ago

I had high hopes for Michael Andrew because he’s the only one who respected physiological principles and actually trained properly for the 50 freestyle but now that he’s focused on the longer stuff, I don’t expect him to go sub 21 anytime soon or at all let alone sub 20

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

He never adequately trained for the 50 free because he never took dryland seriously. Power and force production are physiological principles he ignored. All the top sprinters do some sort of Olympic lifts.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

100% but his pool training for the 50 was more than adequate which is why I said I had high hopes for him until recently.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

You just said “And Michael Andrews 100 training was farrrr too middle distance to have any relevance towards building speed.” And also, you started this whole nonsense by talking about a 45.0 100 LCM free, but then you changed your argument above to a 20 sec race. Apparently your brain is in sprint mode and can’t do anything over 20 sec.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

I literally started the convo talking about sub 20 50 free and sub 45 100 free. Don’t twist my words because your brain isn’t able to read correctly.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

His 100m training being far too middle distance is exactly what is canceling out any real speed he was building through his 50 training. And now his 200im training is definitely canceling any real speed he built through his proper 50 training

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

It’s like you don’t even underst The Said Principle. Specific adaptations to imposed demands. How does swimming 20 x 50’s with 10-15 seconds rest equate to swimming 3 x 100’s withing 36 hours?? Okay, let’s to the relays too so Including the relays how does swimming 5 100’s withing the span of 48 hours equate to 20 x 50’s with 10 seconds rest??? You can’t swim any of those 50’s at a speed fast enough to build sufficient lactic acid in the blood. Maybe if you swam them to failure. But usrpt is about hitting a certain pace for all the 50’s and maintaining that pace. Sounds like a distance workout to me. His over speed training For the 50… Read more »

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

And read my comment about speed reserves. If someone had a 50 under 20 seconds then even with a completely trash back half, 45 in the 100 would be light work. 19.9 second In the 50 would mean that swimmer would take their 100 out in 20.9 and even with a 25 second back half, that’s still 45.9. With a great back half of 23 seconds (which is completely possible if you have a 19.9 second 50) that’s a 43.9. Sounds like your brain is stuck in the past long horn. Hope you live long enough to eat your words.

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
1 year ago

Let’s do some more math that way you can get the gears in your head turning alittle. With a 19.9 50, taking out the 100 in 21.9 would be even easier than 20.9 which would leave you with FARRR MORE ENERGY FOR A MONSTER BACK HALF AND IF YOU BROUGT THAT RACE HOME IN 23.9 that’s 45.8. So tell me again, how does lowering the 50 world record by forgoing all this distance training lead to a swimmer not being able to have the “closing speed” for a 45 second 100m free????

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Jack
1 year ago

Sub 20 and sub 45 would be very realistic if as a swimming community egos were put in check and We all stopped being so prideful of all these “wonderful” yards we all swim

AnEn
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Then do it … or coach someone to do it (if you have in fact discovered something that all those world-class athletes and their coaches haven’t).

Sprint Guy
Reply to  AnEn
1 year ago

See you in 8 years buddy

Swimmer2
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

Because gains made in sprint events by focus only really applies to sc, you need endurance to do 3 100 frees in 36 hours

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Swimmer2
1 year ago

I need endurance really?? To swim a total of 300 meters in 36 hours??? A total of .92 meters per hour I need endurance? No I don’t. I need anaerobic capacity. There’s a difference. Endurance is like solar panels, renewable, efficient, but lacks sufficient electricity production. Anaerobic capacity is like a fully charged battery. Can power a remote control car for about 20 minutes at full speed.

Dudeman
Reply to  Sprint Guy
1 year ago

A certain level of endurance is required to bring home a 100 free even sub 25, which is why a lot of the best 100 swimmers have a 200 training background or also excel at the longer distance. Most of the top 100 free swimmers also have a very good 200 because even going out in 21 won’t matter if you can’t come home sub 25, (like Morozov in 2013) you’ll lose to a guy like Chalmers that can go 24.3.

If he wanted to train for pure speed you lose endurance (look at fratus, santos or even Ben proud). None of those guys can produce a world class 100 free and can often only swim a fast 50… Read more »

Sprint Guy
Reply to  Dudeman
1 year ago

A certain level, but if your 50 is 19 then you take out your 100 in 20 and if you come home in 25 (which is ridiculous because someone with a 19 second 50 will have an enourmous speed reserve so even swimming a 23 would be easy for them) but let’s assume they go out 20 and come back 25 that’s still a 45 second 100 free which I don’t care how much back half speed you have, YOURE not going that unless your 50 free gets faster.

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

Read More »