How Fast Will Caeleb Dressel Swim At U.S. Olympic Trials?

Gold Medal Minute presented by SwimOutlet.comOlympic swimming champion Caeleb Dressel  notched fast swims at the Mission Pro Swim, signaling he is on course for a great U.S. Olympic Trials in June:

Dressel Mission Pro Swim Times:

  • 50 free  – 21.83
  • 100 free – 48.82 (prelim swim, scratched the final to fly home early)
  • 200 free – 1:47.57
  • 100 fly – 51.61

In this interview Caeleb is his own worst critic, recapping his entire season. He also sheds some light on the pressures of being a swim star on run-up to the Olympic summer.

PREDICTIONS FOR U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS, VERSION TWO

Yes, I am playing the Dressel prediction game again. I was way too safe last time. See version one of my predictions:

  • 50 free – 21 point 3
  • 100 free – 47 point 2
  • 100 fly – 49 point 9
  • 200 free – prelims one – 1, 45 point 9

See my new predictions after seeing Dressel’s Mission Pro Swim races, and being heckled by SwimSwam commenters for being a wimp:

  • 50 free – 21 point 1
  • 100 free – 47 point 1
  • 100 fly – 49 point 7
  • 200 free – prelims only – 1, 45 point 2

But who cares what I think? It is all about  what you think. Give me your best swimming analysis.

Follow Caeleb Dressel on Instagram here. 

Follow Gold Medal Mel on Instagram here

RECENT EPISODES

This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

Opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the interviewed guests do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of the hosts, SwimSwam Partners, LLC and/or SwimSwam advertising partners.

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Togger
4 months ago

I’m going to be extremely bold and say, very.

MaggieMcNeilWalker
Reply to  Togger
4 months ago

Thank you for bravely sticking your neck out like this. We appreciate the granularity in your projections.

Billy
4 months ago

He’ll swim as fast as necessary at trials and wait to make his statements until Tokyo.

Hswimmer
Reply to  Billy
4 months ago

I don’t think he wants to risk anything. He will be fully tapered.

Hswimmer
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
4 months ago

I agree

Billy
Reply to  Hswimmer
4 months ago

Yessir, agree. Trials are a poor choice for risk taking.

Michael Schwartz
Reply to  Billy
4 months ago

IDK…I mean, how tapered was Lochte going into trials in 08 and 12? Just curious. I feel like that would be a good comparison.

Mr Piano
Reply to  Michael Schwartz
4 months ago

I think Lochte was fully tapered at 2008 trials, because he went slower in almost every event at the Olympics. In 2012 he said he wasn’t fully rested.

eagleswim
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

He also got very ill in beijing before the meet

bigNowhere
Reply to  eagleswim
4 months ago

From what I recall in Beijing he made the mistake of drinking tap water.

Unknown Swimmer
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

You also have a little more margin for error in most of Lochte’s events – in a super deep 50/100 free field, a couple tenths could easily relegate him to relay-only

Hswimmer
4 months ago

I think he will be way faster in 200 free if he swims all three races.

Sun Yangs Hammer
4 months ago

21.1
47.1
50.0
1:45.0 prelim

Last edited 4 months ago by Sun Yangs Hammer
AnEn
Reply to  Sun Yangs Hammer
4 months ago

What makes you think that he can go 1:45.0?

Sun Yangs Hammer
Reply to  AnEn
4 months ago

Mostly his 2 free splits already. He’s holding back that first 100

Thorpedo
Reply to  Sun Yangs Hammer
4 months ago

A long course 200 free is so different from any short course race he’s done, yes he’s the fittest sprinter out there but he’s still a sprinter, he’s done crazy things racing events back to back, I just don’t see him being able to hold on that second 100. Even if he got out in 50. something. But I’d love to be proved wrong and smash like a 1:44

Ghost
4 months ago

Love Dressel interviews…his modesty and honesty are refreshing!

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Ghost
4 months ago

Gotta say, like his more than Phelps’ streaming thing with Rowdy analyzing his raises. Just doesn’t give enough credit to his competitors. Has slowest relay split in Athens, it was the wake from Crocker’s terrible leadoff. LeClos beats him in London, and it’s “if I hit any of those three walls, I win”, as if LeClos had an absolutely 100% perfect race. Never mentioned Lochte’s food poisoning before the 400 IM in Beijing, and Rowdy had to bring up that Lochte was only 30 min out of his 200 back in London when Phelps beat him in the 200 IM. Dressel doesn’t do the humble brag at all.

PhillyMark
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
4 months ago

Phelps went 48.7 in athens….far from slowest split in the field. He also stated the 2Back to 2IM double was extremely difficult, particularly on the legs

bigNowhere
Reply to  PhillyMark
4 months ago

Yeah, it could not have been the slowest freestyle split given that Crocker went something like 50.0.

But I do think that Phelps, with all his success, did a little lucky in a few races. I don’t think he wins the 100 fly in 2004 in Athens if Crocker wasn’t sick that week. Crocker beat him in that race at every other important meet 2003-2005.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  PhillyMark
4 months ago

I meant the slowest outside of Crocker on the U.S. team. And the same time that Gary Hall, Jr. spit in prelims (and who questioned his choice for finals).

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
4 months ago

Speaking of Le Clos, that 200 fly might have been the “perfect race”, at least in LCM. I’m pretty sure that is still his best time.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  bobthebuilderrocks
4 months ago

None of the greats ever have a perfect race. Plus, whose to say that if Phelps went 0.5 sec faster hitting his walls that LeClos still wasn’t going to run him down. LeClos was clearly going for the win. If the win was 0.5 sec faster, that day Leclos would’ve gone 0.5 sec faster.

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
4 months ago

I totally get what you mean, but don’t you think occasionally there is that swim where everyone is just left in awe and then that individual never repeats that caliber of a swim again? I feel like that’s happened a few times at least.

Luigi
Reply to  bobthebuilderrocks
4 months ago

Nathan Adrian in 2012 comes to mind. Fastest 100 free of his life, wins gold by 1/100 over the favourite.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  bobthebuilderrocks
4 months ago

Leave Schooling out of this.

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  Ol' Longhorn
4 months ago

Lolol, I’m still holding out on him actually, I think he can at least get back to under 51.5 at a big meet. It won’t compared to his 50.3 but anything under 51.5 would be far better than what he’s been doing. Also, I don’t think many people have realized how much his training group has been kicking butt (Manoff, Ivanov, Osman, Ramadan) in the fly events. I think Schooling has got something good cooking.

NoFlyKick
Reply to  bobthebuilderrocks
4 months ago

M200 FR WR and W 200 fly WR come to mind….

Mr Piano
4 months ago

I’ve had this prediction in my head for a while. Dressel keeps his strings tucked out to signify that the Olympic Games are what he’s aiming for. Worlds are important, but Dressel’s culmination of the last 5 years of training will take place in Tokyo. This is where he will set his name as one of the greatest swimmers ever. When we see him on the blocks in Tokyo, it will be with his strings TUCKED IN.

Taa
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

Blasphemy

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

One of the greatest swimmers ever or one of the greatest performances ever? How many gold medals does Dressel win at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics? Phelps – 8 gold medals (2008), Spitz – 7 gold medals (1972)

Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

this might be the boldest prediction yet

leisurely1:29
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

I seriously doubt Dressel will EVER tuck his strings in. The day he tucks his strings in is the day he changes outside the stall. Not gonna happen.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  leisurely1:29
4 months ago

The USA is not guaranteed a gold medal in the men’s 4 x 100 meter medley relay. The breaststroke leg alone may torpedo the chances of a gold medal in the aforementioned event.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
4 months ago

The USA has settled for the bronze medal in the men’s 4 x 200 meter freestyle relay at the 2017 FINA World Aquatics Championships and the 2019 FINA World Aquatics Championships.

Andy
Reply to  Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
4 months ago

And yet Wilson’s 58.3 split at Worlds was the 2nd fastest in the field. A high 57 split is not that much of a leap here. Everyone talking down the US breastrokers needs to take a deep breath and wait for trials. It will take an American record to win it. If it is Wilson in a 58.5 (my prediction), he is reliably .6 to .7 faster on his relay splits….

Chad
Reply to  Andy
4 months ago

I would love to see that, though I don’t know if he can. I’m guessing 58 high at the best.

Caeleb "the asymptote" Dressel
4 months ago

I think he’s targeting those supersuited records.

My predictions:

50 free: 20.8
100 free: 46.4 (21.9/24.5)
200 free: 1.44.9
100 fly: 49.3

Mel, tell me what you’ll do, if he goes these times ?

BKP
Reply to  Caeleb "the asymptote" Dressel
4 months ago

Better yet, what swim equipment will you eat!?

BKP
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
4 months ago

Come’on man! I’m getting a little nervous about my Seto prediction…I could use some company at the dinner table!
Honesty I’m having a hard time finding good snorkel recipes!

Chad
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
4 months ago

saltine challenge

Horninco
Reply to  Caeleb "the asymptote" Dressel
4 months ago

I want to see him out sub 22 for sure

Bub
Reply to  Caeleb "the asymptote" Dressel
4 months ago

That 100 free is like being Vlad Morozov and Kyle Chalmers at the same time.

Shawn
Reply to  Bub
4 months ago

a 2.6sec difference is not being Kyle Chalmers

Mr Piano
4 months ago

Also this is off topic but, Ryan Lochte said in his Instagram story that he’s starting taper. That’s like a 6-7 week taper lol.

Mich
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
4 months ago

Tell this to our coaches pleases😂 We get one week, my body needs much much more.

Andy
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
4 months ago

Left one or right?

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

As opposed to Katie Ledecky:

https://youtu.be/VEkVG3Qm1RA

1:14

The Original Tim
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

I’m about the same age as Lochte and I typically do a 4 week taper heading into USMS spring nationals each year, though the first two weeks are only a slight taper of about a 10% decline compared to pre-taper. I generally do a ~10% decrease both of the first two weeks, then a ~20% taper the 3rd week, and then drop it down to a meet warmup + pace work the last week prior to the meet.

That said, I’ve got way, way, WAY less of a training base to taper from than he does–a heavy week for me tops out around 30k yards, max.

If I were swimming the yards Lochte is, I’d probably aim for a ~6… Read more »

Last edited 4 months ago by The Original Tim
FST
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

He’s a middle distance swimmer and an IMer. There is probably a lot of base to taper from. Also… he’s really old.
And the trials will be this year’s most important meet for him. No time to play around with taper. This is the his last hurrah. If he wants to make the team he needs to be WELL rested.

Dudeman
Reply to  Mr Piano
4 months ago

Lochte is also 36 so he will need the extra time. Bob bowman said he rested Phelps longer than he ever had at the 2015 nationals and lochte is 5 years older than that now. Gotta get some rest to build up the dad strength

Andy
Reply to  Dudeman
4 months ago

37 by trials I think….

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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