2024 W. NCAA Previews: Bella Sims Eyes First NCAA Crown, Leads A Revitalized 500 Free Field

2024 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 20-23, 2024
• Gabrielsen Natatorium, Athens, Georgia
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Official Psych Sheets (with cutlines)
• Invited swimmers by team (not including relay swimmers)
• Alternates list
• Eligible Relays

WOMEN’S 500 FREE

• U.S. Open Record: 4:24.06 — Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• American Record: 4:24.06 — Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• NCAA Record: 4:24.06 — Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• 2023 NCAA Champion: Kensey McMahon, Alabama – 4:36.62

A year ago, the women’s 500 freestyle landscape looked very different. The top time in the NCAA was Erica Sullivan‘s 4:35.88 and there were 22 women sub-4:40 heading into the championships. In Knoxville, the since-graduated Kensey McMahon won her first NCAA title in 4:36.62, which was slower than the top time out of prelims.

Since March 2023, there’s been a women’s 500 freestyle renaissance. 12 of the top 13 seeds swam their lifetime bests this season. Aimee Canny got things started at the midseason invites, dropping a 4:36.26–which would’ve won the 2023 title–in her first time swimming the event. She was far from the last swimmer to make noise in the event at the invites and when the dust settled, five women had swum faster than the 2023 title winning time (after conference meets, it’s now seven). Not only that, but 18 swimmers had broken 4:40 barrier, a dramatic increase from three the prior season (now it’s 26, up four from last season).

Despite this surge in talent at the top end, the women’s 500 freestyle invite time got slower from 2023 to 2024. This shows that while the top-end has gotten faster, the next level of of NCAA swimmers has normalized.

But even with a much more competitive field at the top, there’s still one name that stands out among the rest.

The Freshman

Bella Sims has been lights out in her freshman campaign for the Florida Gators. At her first SEC Championships she was crowned Women’s Swimmer of the Meet, set two individual and two relay SEC records, swam three PBs, and was the only swimmer to sweep their individual events.

But the 500 freestyle wasn’t one of those events. Sims opted for the 200 IM instead of the 500 freestyle, which paid off for her to the tune of a win and a personal best (1:51.86). Since we haven’t seen her race the 500 free in the post season yet, the most significant data point we have for her is the 4:32.53 she swam at the Georgia Fall Invite. There, she out-dueled Rachel Stege, beating the 2023 SEC champ by .34 seconds for a new SEC record.

That time held up over conferences as the top time in the NCAA this season. Even though she’s only .34 seconds ahead of Stege’s #2 seed, her personal best sets her apart from the crowd. She’s been as fast as 4:28.64, making her the #4 swimmer in history according to USA Swimming.

So, even though the event has gotten more crowded this season, Sims is still the heavy favorite to claim the NCAA title. Not only has she been performing well at Florida, giving us no reason to doubt that she’ll swim well at NCAAs, but her best time puts her in rarified air that’s well ahead of the rest of the field. No one else at the meet has broken 4:30 before. Sims’ proven capability and her momentum from SECs makes us comfortable putting her down as our pick to win.

Georgia’s Distance Crew

Sims is the clear favorite, but things get muddier after that. One thing we know for sure is that Georgia’s distance group has been a threat all season long. In the 500 free, they’re led by Stege, who has only continued to get better after her breakout swims in March 2023.

Rachel Stege (photo: Jack Spitser)

She finished second to Sims at midseason with a 4:32.87, which was a 3.44 second drop for the junior. She didn’t match that time at SECs, taking second behind Emma Weyant in 4:36.15. But with an NCAA invite already locked up, it’s hard to read to much into that swim. It could have been an off one, but Stege also many not have rested that much. Either way, Stege looks set to make a return to the ‘A’ final this year.

Also looking to get back into the top 8 is Dune Coetzee, who finished 8th in 2023. The junior was one of those swimmers who made the quick turn around from 2024 Worlds to the SEC Championships and she ended up not racing individual events in Auburn. So, like with Sims, we’ve only got her midseason time to go off. Back in November, she posted a personal best of 4:35.29 and is one of the seven swimmers with a seed time faster than last year’s winning time.

Two other Bulldogs to keep an eye on are Abby McCulloh and Sloane Reinstein. The 500 free is the shorter end of McCulloh’s range–she’s the top seed in the 1650 free–but she’s made big improvements this season that have turned her into someone to watch in this event as well. Last year, she finished 21st and now she’s the 8th seed, courtesy of her 4:37.18 personal best from finshing 3rd at SECs.

Reinstein is the 18th seed, so she currently sits just outside scoring. Prelims is going to be tight for everyone in this event; 8th seed (4:37.18) and 16th (4:38.44) are separated by just 1.26 seconds. If Reinstein can have a good morning swim, she could make it four Bulldogs scoring points in this event.

Returning ‘A’ Finalists

Of the returning ‘A’ finalists that we haven’t mentioned yet, the one who is positioned the best is Sims’ teammate Weyant. The junior collected the win at SECs with a new personal best time of 4:34.25–her first in the event since 2022 NCAAs. That was a significant moment for Weyant as she’s now seeing her move to Florida pay off in the form of PBs.

Emma Weyant (photo: Jack Spitser)

She’s aiming to climb higher on the podium than her 6th place 2023 finish (she was 2nd in 2022). She’s put herself in a strong position to do that: not only is she seeing the Florida training pay off, it’s happening at the right time of year. Though she’s well back of the 4:32s from Sims and Stege, She’s almost a second ahead of 4th seed Lindsay Looney (4:35.05).

Besides Weyant, the other returning ‘A’ finalists–Sullivan, Abby Carlson, and Gan Ching Hwee–all have some work to do from a seed placement perspective. All three sit well outside the finals with Sullivan ranked highest at 23rd (4:39.17). Meanwhile, Carlson is 26th (4:39.50) and Gan is 28th (4:40.09).

Of the three, it’s probably safest to assume that Sullivan was the least rested given Texas’ chokehold on the Big-12. But purely from a placement lens, all have an uphill battle to make it back to the ‘B’ final, much less the ‘A’, largely due to the revitalization of this event, which isn’t just the product of new faces. Returning NCAA swimmers have also been stepping up and have played a large role in making this event more competitive.

More New Challengers

For simplicity’s sake, it’s easiest to call this group “new challengers” though really, it’s only Canny who is new to this event. Canny arrived in Charlottesville last season and chose the 200 IM at 2023 NCAAs. Since then, her freestyle has continued to improve and in her first time swimming the 500 free at the Tennessee Invitational she dropped that 4:36.26 which immediately made her a contender in this event. She was 2nd 4:39.96 at ACCs, but her midseason time makes us curious what she’s got left in store for NCAAs.

Aimee Canny (photo: Jack Spitser)

Her teammate, freshman Cavan Gormsen, won the race at ACCs in a season best 4:38.43. She’s been as fast as 4:36.43, which she put up before arriving at Virginia. She’s made steady progress while adjusting to life in Charlottesville and if that trend continues, could help put points on the board in her first individual NCAA event as Virginia aims for a four-peat.

Like we said at the top of this post, 12 of the top 13 seeds (everyone except Sims) swam their personal best this season. None of those swimmers are freshmen, giving us plenty of returning faces capable of making their mark.

They’re mostly all bunched together; 8th through 13th–McCulloh, Anna Kalandadze, Katie Crom, Anna Peplowski, Mia Motekaitis, and Rachel Klinker–are separated by just .71 seconds. More than ever, it’s going to be crucial to have a strong prelims swim because the difference between the ‘A’ final and first alternate projects to be the smallest we’ve seen in a while.

Peplowski is a big name to watch of this bunch. She’s been improving in her freestyle events–both SCY and LCM–for the past year. She didn’t race this event last year, and now she’s seeded to score. The 4:37.47 she swam at Big Tens was a .82 second drop from the PB she swam at midseason. Before this season, her best was 4:48.80. How much does she have left to give?

The two who’ve separated themselves from this bunch of swimmers in the middle are Arizona State’s Looney and Stanford’s Aurora Roghair. In their last PAC-12 Championships, Looney beat Roghair for the PAC-12 crown, 4:35.05 to 4:36.26.

That ranks Looney 5th this season, giving her a big chance to improve on her 13th place finish last year. Roghair is in a similar position; she was 30th last year and is now ranked 7th. Both are now faster than the 2023 winning time. In a rebuild year for Stanford, she’s been at her best so if she can continue that in Athens she’ll score some valuable points for the Cardinal.

The Verdict

Sims is the favorite but you could make a legitimate case for another ten swimmers to join her in the ‘A’ final and even more to make it back for a second swim. Unfortunately for them, there’s only eight lanes in the pool and no ‘C’ finals.

We think that similarly to respecting Sims’ 4:28.64 personal best, Stege’s 4:32.87 gives her the advantage for 2nd. The SEC has a grip on the top of this event, but certainly with so many swimmers hitting personal bests this year, a lot of how the race shakes out is going to come down to who has the most left in the tank both from a season standpoint and their ability to successfully move through the rounds.

SWIMSWAM PICKS

Dark Horse: Claire Tuggle, Sophomore (USC): Tuggle made almost immediate improvements after transferring from Virginia to USC this season. She turned heads at the Trojan Invite by breaking 4:40 for the first time. She hasn’t been under that barrier since this season, and historically, the USC taper has been hit or miss, which only adds to the ‘dark horse’ narrative. But if it hits for Tuggle, who’s the 20th seed, she could jump up and earn a second swim.