2024 Olympic Trials Preview: Deja Vu in 400 IM – Foster, Kalisz Frontrunners Once Again

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Meet Central
• Broadcast Info
• SwimSwam Preview Index

MEN’S 400 Individual Medley— BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 4:02.50 – Leon Marchand, France (2023)
• World Junior Record: 4:10.02 – Ilya Borodin, Russia (2021)
• American Record: 4:03.84 – Michael Phelps (2008)
• U.S. Open Record: 4:05.25 – Michael Phelps, USA (2008)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Chase Kalisz (USA) – 4:09.42
• 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Chase Kalisz – 4:09.09
• U.S. Olympic Trials Cut: 4:25.19
• 2024 Olympic Qualifying Times: 4:12.50/4:13.76

I wrote the preview of this event for the 2023 World Championships Trials, and in collecting information on all of the potential players in this event, I took a peek back at that preview, and folks, it’s eerily similar. While the lead-up from 2022 to 2023 is certainly different than this year’s (by nature, one would expect it to be as it is an Olympic year), the swimmers, their times this season, and our top eight are nearly the same.

One thing that is not the same, however, is the man atop the by-the-numbers section: the incomparable Leon Marchand. Eleven months ago, the Frenchman rewrote the history books, taking down the oldest World Record, Michael Phelps‘s 4:03.84, from the 2008 Beijing Games. Phelps had held the record for nearly 21 years, dating back to August of 2002 (Marchand was all of three months old).

Marchand plays more than one role in this story, however. Not only is the world chasing his record time and his all-but-certain appearance in Paris, but the two fastest Americans this year are not only coached by the same coach as Marchand but also train with him, or likely soon will.

Yes, there is a caveat, as Carson Foster still likely is training with Eddie Reese, who stated his intentions to coach through these Olympic Trials. However, with the fastest Americans in recent memory and the new World Record holder all based out of one location, one should expect fireworks over the coming years in this event. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves; both Marchand and the American contingent have yet to be decided.

The Diving Bell and The Butterfly 

Chase Kalisz (photo: Jack Spitser)

The two favorites last summer to make the US World’s team and atop the national ranking this year are reigning Olympic Gold medalist Chase Kalisz and Carson Foster. Foster, the younger of the two, got the better of the veteran at the US Trials last swimmer, posting a time of 4:08.14 to win the 400 IM. He also got the better of Kalisz in Fukuoka as he swam his way to the silver medal in a time of 4:06.56, equaling his personal best. Foster, who swam collegiately for the University of Texas, has turned pro and has put all his focus into swimming long course meters, but the expected results have yet to show themselves fully.

No longer in the collegiate system, it is hard to say if and when Foster has tapered for a meet, so his results from this past fall’s US Open and February’s World Champs are nebulous. He finished second to Kalisz at the US Open, but his 4:13.43 was over three seconds back despite his butterfly leg gaining him nearly a full-second lead, a lead that carried through into the backstroke.

Doha appeared to be a building block as his prelim swim of 4:13.24 was faster than the US Open’s but his finals performance was off as he finished a disappointing 4th in a time of 4:12.62. Like in Greensboro, Foster’s fly leg was the speediest of the group; his 55.18 was the only split under 56 and helped him build a lead of over a second and a half at the halfway mark. However, his back half of the race faltered, and perhaps a proverbial diving bell was dropped as he slid from 1st to 4th in the closing legs of the race, a fate that also befell him in the 200 IM where in the last leg, he lost his chance to win that elusive individual gold medal.

Having finished third at the 2021 Trials, Foster hopes to make his first Olympic team, but he will first have to reassert himself atop the pack if he swims it.

With both the 200 free and 400 IM being back-to-back events in prelims on Day Two and only the final of the women’s 100 fly in between the final of the 400 IM and 200 free semifinals, Foster may have to pick and choose his schedule. While he likely will appear in the entry list for both events, if we get any inclination to which event or if he opts for the dirtiest of doubles, I’ll update the article.

As Phelps’s successor, Kalisz has asserted his authority across both IM events. The reigning Olympic champion has also been a medalist at every World Champs in the 400, dating back to the 2013 Barcelona meet. This streak saw its end in Fukuoka, where the Bob Bowman-trained swimmer finished 4th, being passed by Daiya Seto in the last 50 meters.

Kalisz opted not to swim in Doha but remains the fastest American this season, courtesy of his 4:10.42 from the US Open. Kalisz did not race again from early December until March when he posted a 4:13.52 in Westmont. He was a second faster a month later in San Antonio, hitting the wall in 4:12.45, albeit placing second to training partner Marchand, who was fresh off of an NCAA meet of epic proportions.

Back to the Future

Bobby Finke (photo: Jack Spitser)

Two swimmers looking to turn their recent fortunes in the 400 IM around are Bobby Finke and Jay Litherland, who rank as the 4th and 5th fastest Americans this season.

I caught some flack last year for predicting that Litherland, the Tokyo silver medalist, would place 5th. He ended up 4th, and one of the swimmers I placed ahead of him ended up not swimming it so I still very well could have been right, but enough about that because Finke and Litherland find themselves very much in the same position as they were last year: in tough competition with one another, slightly behind the two frontrunners.

Finke, more known for his freestyle abilities has an IM pedigree that many would be envious of. He won the 2019 Summer Nationals and won the yards version at the 2021 NCAAs. At the last three international selection meets, the Florida Gator has finished amongst the top 4; in 2021 at the Olympic Trials, he finished 4th in 4:11.44, 3rd in 2022 in 4:10.57, and last year he finished 3rd in a personal best time of 4:09.55.

Jay Litherland (photo: Jack Spitser)

Litherland, who swam at Georgia, has since moved to ASU (now Texas) to train with Kalisz and Bob Bowman. He burst onto the international scene, winning the 4oo IM at the 2015 World University Games. Litherland is a two-time Olympian and the reigning silver medalist in this event. He represented the US Senior international team at every meet from 2016 through 2021 but struggled in 2022, finishing 6th and 4th last summer.

Whereas Finke has his 800 and 1500 to make the team, Litherland’s only likely shot to make the team is in this event, and his focus on it is obvious. Litherland traveled to Santiago for Pan-As and won the event in 4:15.44 and a month later posted a season-best 4:14.50 at the US Open. He swam the event at all three stops of the Pro Swim Series, but never better his time as he hovered in the 4:16-4: range.

Finke, on the other hand, would not be ranked so high in the event if it were not for his 4:14.44 at the Atlanta Classic last month. At the US Open, he was only 4:23.61 (good for 14th) and 4:18 at the two PSS meets he attended, but he seems to be fully gearing up for the Olympic Trials now, as he also hit new PBs in the 100 back and 200 IM in Atlanta.

The Best of the Rest

Sitting ahead of both Finke and Litherland in the rankings is David Johnston. A strong distance freestyler like Finke, Johnston can throw down a good 400 IM as he is currently ranked 3rd in the nation and 18th in the nation. The former Texas Longhorn opted not to swim this race last year at the World Trials and instead opted to swim the 400, 800, and 1500 freestyle.

He finished 1st in the 400 in 3:45.75 but would add nearly three seconds in Fukuoka to finish 17th. Since then, Johnston has competed often and has included the 400 IM in his event line-up, but recently has appeared to drop it. At the US Open, he was just 4:23.29 (12th) but had a strong showing in Doha. With Foster, Johnston was part of the small US men’s contingent to head to the 2024 World, but he threw down a personal best 4:12.51 in prelims to take the top seed into finals, where he was a tad slower, finishing 5th in 4:13.05.

He did swim the 400 IM again at the Westmont Stop of the Pro Swim Series, hitting the wall in 4:14.94, behind only Kalisz’s 4:13.52, and ahead of Litherland by over a second. However, he eschewed the event out in San Antonio and swam only freestyle at a recent meet in Irvine, where he won both the 400 (3:48.06) and the 1500 (15:02.68). If Johnston swims the 400 IM at Trials, he’ll have a busy first three days as the 400 free is on Day One, the 400 IM on Day Two and the 800 free on Day Three.

Free Guy(s)

After a strong top 4 (5), if Johnston swims it, the race for the spots in the final are wide open. No other US swimmer has been under 4:15 this season or at last year’s Trials, let alone the Olympic Qualifying Time of 4:12.50, so every name from hereon out has an unlikely shot of making the team (at least in this event).

Baylor Nelson (photo: Jack Spitser)

Baylor Nelson placed 5th at the 2023 Trials in a personal best time of 4:15.87. Nelson, who just wrapped up his sophomore year at Texas A&M, made the 2023 Worlds team as a relay member in the 4×200 free, so has some international experience under his belt. Nelson continued that momentum into yards as he swam a new personal best to place third in the yards version (3:37.46) at NCAAs this past March, so should feel buoyed by that results. The Aggie was the highest placed American as winner Marchand is French and runner-up David Schlicht is a native of Australia. However, Nelson has not had much long course competition this season, swimming the event only twice, with his season-best being a 6th place, showing the US Open with a time of 4:20.06.

Finishing 12 spots behind him at the 2023 Trials, but actually faster by .06, was Florida’s Mason Laur. Laur had a disappointing prelims swim, finishing nearly two seconds behind his seed time, but roared back with a vengeance to win the C-Final in 4:15.81, a new personal best. Like Nelson, the Florida Gator had a strong showing at NCAAs, where he swam his way to a new personal best in the 400 IM, placing 6th in 3:37.98. Laur recently swam the event at the Atlanta Classic, where he finished 3rd in a time of 4:23.81, behind Finke and Alabama’s Tommy Hagar.

Another swimmer who overperformed in finals compared to their prelim swim at the 2023 Trials was Ian Grum. The Georgia Bulldog finished 12th in prelims but, like Laur, came back to win his final (the B-final) in 4:16.26, a time that would have placed him 6th in the A-final. Grum’s time, a new PB, put him into contention to compete with Litherland at the 2023 Pan-Am Games, where he finished in 4:18.74, just .04 outside the medals. He did, however, win the silver medal in the 200 back. Grum, like Laur, will need to be on his game in prelims as there is a strong contingent of newcomers looking at their shot at a finals appearance.

Gregg Enoch (photo: Jack Spitser)

Two high schoolers looking to jump into the conversation are Carmel Swim Club’s Gregg Enoch and Long Island Aquatic Club’s Sean Green. Enoch, who is heading to Louisville this fall, threw down a massive personal best at the Indiana Sectionals, swimming 4:16.80 in prelims, before which his PB stood at 4:20.19 from the 2023 Trials. Green, who is a grade younger, has committed to swim at Georgia swam 4:18.62 to win Junior Nationals last summer and backed it up with another 4:18 at the NCSA Spring Championships this past March. Not to be forgotten is Cooper Lucas, a Texas commit, who finished 4th in the B-Final last year in 4:19.29 and used that opportunity to swim 4:18.76 to place 5th at Junior Worlds. This season he finished in the top ten at two of the PSS meets this year (4th in Knoxville – 4:23.54),

Two other high schoolers who may have a little more recognition are Ryan Erisman and Max Williamson. Erisman, a Cal commit for 2025, entered the 2023 Trials on the upswing, but faltered in prelims and added over eight seconds to his seed time to finish 48th, well outside his top 24 seed. This season, Erisman has broken the 4:20 barrier, finishing second to Green at NCSA in a new PB of 4:19.35. While the future Cal Bear has improved in the event, Williamson, a UVA commit, has been going in the other direction.

After taking silver at Junior Pan Pacs in 4:17.58, Williamson was just 4:21.36 at the 2023 Trials and was 4:30.37 at the Knoxville PSS meet. With improvements in his other events and with the 400 IM scheduled for the same day as the 200 Free, Williamson may opt for the later event as there are a max of six spots open in that event as opposed to the two in the IM.

I’m Still Here

While not high schoolers, the other three A-finalists from last year are also all in the jumble of swimmers above 4:15. 6th last year in 4:17.80, Owen Lloyd, who may be best known for his controversial DQ at ACCs, dropped further time to swim a new PB at the LEN U23 meet, hitting the wall in 4:16.91 to place 5th. Since then, he hasn’t come close to getting under 4:20 again, hitting 4:25 in October and 4:22.46 at the US Open.

In a similar boat are Danny Berlitz and Sean Grieshop. Berlitz swam a strong 4:20.93 at the San Antonio PSS and will look to get back to the 4:17.46 that qualified him for the A-Final. Grieshop, free of the confines of college swimming unlike Lloyd and Berlitz, swam the 400 IM at all three World Aquatics World Cup meets this fall, hitting 4:20.68 at the first leg of the series in Berlin, but hasn’t been able to replicate those results this year, swimming 4:32.03 in mid-May and skipping the event at the Irvine Speedo Grand Challenge. Grieshop has a PB of 4:12.72, but it’s nearly six years old, and he hasn’t been under 4:15 since 2018.

The Verdict

It’s a lot of names being thrown around, and again, after the top 4/5, it is a wide-open field to take a lane in prime time in Lucas Oil Stadium. There are plenty of other names too, that could be added; Princeton’s Mitchell Schott has a 4:18.96 to his name, but as it was a time trial and his next fastest recorded time is 5:10.96 from 2017, one could be hesitant to jump him straight into the A-final. ASU Commit Michael Hochwalt blasted a massive PB of 4:19.70 at the Sectionals meet in Federal Way but was 4:21.41 in prelims in San Antonio and 4:30.61 in finals and with so many other young swimmers just a little faster, he may find himself boxed out of the final.

As for the ordering of the top 8. its a battle of Kalisz’s proven consistency and Foster’s youthful determinance. Both have that top-end talent to medal in Paris, but it’s whether or not Foster can hold off Kalisz’s breaststroke to get to the wall first in Indianapolis. We are giving the edge to Foster, but only .08 separated them at trials last summer, and Kalisz has the faster of the two season bests, but we don’t know exactly how prepared Foster was for Doha and if he wasn’t fully rested than his 4:12.62 could have been faster. This is assuming Foster will swim.

As for third place, again, it is a toss-up between Finke and Litherland. Finke beat Litherland in Knoxville, but Litherland got the better of him in San Antonio. Finke has the slight edge in the season best time (.06), but like last year, we are giving the edge to the Florida Gator. His off-event personal best in Atlanta and the fact that he beat Litherland (as predicted) last summer by nearly a second tips the scale in his favor. Rumors swirl that Finke may opt for the 400 free and disregard the IM, but until the entry lists are released, we will keep him in the top 8.

Picks five through eight are going to be contentious, whatever way they come out. As an event not swum at every meet and not on the high school program, where swimmers stand in this event is very nebulous. Without the entry lists, we don’t yet know who will dive in for the 400 IM. Johnston and Williamson are more on the unlikely side, but any of the others could be on the fence, making the picks more uncertain. (This serves as my disclaimer that this is a prediction based on fewer facts than normal, so use it wisely as a guide for your Pick’ems, but don’t complain if they are off)

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Tommy Bried (Louisville) – Bried may have a faster season best than some of those listed in the top 8 above him; he clocks in with a 4:18.72 from his 5th place finish at the US Open, but his more recent results are middle of the pack. While at the US Open, he finished ahead of Baylor Nelson; NCAAs saw the Louisville Cardinal finishing well back, swimming 3:42.72 to finish 19th. In San Antonio, he was 6th behind Berlitz’s 4:20.93 and more recently swam 4:23.36 at a UofL meet in early May. If Bried, who finished 5th in the B-final last summer (4:20.75) can get back under 4:20 he certainly has a chance to make the top 8.