2024 Olympic Previews: Can Team USA Keep the Streak Alive in the Men’s 400 Medley Relay?

2024 Paris Summer Olympic Games

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena – Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
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By the Numbers: Men’s 4×100 Medley Relay

• World Record: 3:26.78 – USA, R. Murphy, M. Andrew, C. Dressel, Z. Apple (2021)
• World Junior Record: 3:33.19 – RUS, N. Zuev, V. Gerasimenko, A. Minakov, A. Shchegolev (2019)
• Olympic Record: 3:26.78 – USA, R. Murphy, M. Andrew, C. Dressel, Z. Apple (2021)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: 3:26.78 – USA, R. Murphy, M. Andrew, C. Dressel, Z. Apple (2021)

The United States has been unstoppable in the men’s 4×100 medley relay since the race first debuted in the 1960 Olympic Games. The Americans have never lost an Olympic 4×100 medley relay, giving them one of the longest winning streaks in Olympic history: 15 consecutive Games and counting (the only time the U.S. did not win was when the nation boycotted the Olympics in 1980).

Team USA has not just dominated the Olympic podium in the race, either. The U.S. has had a lock on the world record in the 4×100 medley since 1971, with no other nation able to crack the American grip on it for over 50 years.

With so much history behind them, the U.S. is sure to be pushing hard to keep the streak alive, but it will be a tough fight with the other nations creeping up behind them.

Sweet Sixteen?

If the U.S. can pull off another win in the 4×100 medley in Paris, they’ll extend their winning streak to 16 straight Olympic Games, barring the one year they did not compete. After just narrowly making the final in Tokyo, the relay team of Ryan Murphy, Michael Andrew, Caeleb Dressel and Zach Apple threw down a tremendous swim in finals that saw them break the world record. Only two members of that squad are returning this Olympics, but the Americans should be just as dominant as ever in their performances.

Taking the fastest qualifier from each individual 100 of stroke at Trials, the relay lineup looks like it will be Murphy, Nic Fink, Dressel and Jack Alexy (Alexy was the runner-up in the final at Trials behind Chris Guiliano but posted a faster time in prelims and is ranked higher in the entry list). We’ve already seen how three of those swimmers perform together, as Murphy, Fink and Alexy were all part of the gold-medal winning relay team at the 2023 World Championships, where they posted a time of 3:27.20.

Adding Dressel into the mix should only make this relay even faster, as his winning time in the 100 fly (50.19) at U.S. Olympic Trials was the 2nd-fastest time in the world this season. If we look at the add-up of each swimmer’s best times and recent performances, we can get an idea of how we might expect them to perform in Paris.

If we go off of the middle time, it looks like Team USA’s projected time for the Paris Games will be right around a 3:26-high. Given that all of these times are based on flat starts, we can expect to see the latter legs of the relay throw down some faster splits with their relay starts, but it is up for debate if that will be enough to bring them back down to the 3:26 range.

Alexy’s personal best time at Trials showed his top form a few weeks out from the big event, while Dressel, Fink and Murphy’s performances were a little farther off their lifetime bests; if they can get back down closer to their best times, or at least their Olympic entry times, then they should have a good shot at landing back on top of the podium again.

Final Four

China

As dominant as the U.S. is in this event, the Americans will face stiff competition from some of the other nations in the field. Closing in just behind them is China, who was the runner-up behind the U.S. at the World Championships in Fukuoka with a time of 3:29.00. They have since posted a much faster performance, throwing down a time of 3:27.01 and shattering the Asian Record at the Asian Games back in September, which would top the projected times for Team USA.

Taking the highest ranked Chinese swimmers from each individual stroke, it looks like the probable Olympic relay team will be a repeat from both the 2023 Worlds and the 2023 Asian Games, with Xu Jiayu, Qin Haiyang, Wang Changhao and Pan Zhanle. The add-up of their individual performances at the Chinese National Championships in April would give the relay squad a projected time of 3:28.80.

World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)

However, if we look at their Olympic entry times (which signify their fastest performances within the Olympic qualifying period of March 2023 to June 2024), the predicted time would be 3:27.74, mere hundredths off of the projected U.S. time using the same add-up method. Keep in mind that this squad has already proven they put together a faster race than this time; if they post splits similar to their Asian Games performance, they will definitely be in a position to give the U.S. team a run for their money.

China is the closest competitor to the U.S., but if we look at the “final four” as the nations who should land themselves solidly in the final and will be chasing down a spot on the podium, then we’ve got a few more teams who will be vying with each other.

Australia

Also seeking a place on the podium will be the Australian relay team, who placed 5th in Tokyo but is seeded 3rd heading into Paris. Australia earned a bronze medal at the 2023 World Championships, with the team of Bradley Woodward, Zac Stubblety-Cook, Matthew Temple and Kyle Chalmers touching behind the U.S. and China in a time of 3:29.62.

Temple and Chalmers can both be expected to be part of the relay lineup in Paris, with the breaststroke leg likely going to Sam Williamson in place of Stubblety-Cook, but it is harder to say who will take the backstroke leg. While Woodward is the top-ranked Australian in the 100 back, seeded .08 ahead of teammate Isaac Cooper, he took 2nd behind Cooper by .07 at the Australian Swimming Trials. Their times are so close that the relay spot could really go either way, so we’ll look at a projection of both possible combinations.

Adding up the top-ranked Olympic entry times of Woodward, Williamson, Temple and Chalmers would give Australia a cumulative time of 3:29.58, just a hair faster than the country’s qualifying time from Worlds in Fukuoka. Conversely, adding up the winning Trials times (which would put Cooper in the backstroke leg), results in a cumulative time of 3:31.16, with the biggest time differences coming from Temple and Chalmers.

Australia has the potential to bring home a bronze medal in the 4×100 medley relay, but they will need to bring their A-game to split a fast enough time against their competitors.

Great Britain

Great Britain’s 4×100 medley relay won silver in Tokyo with a time of 3:27.51, about .75 behind the Americans thanks to the efforts of Luke Greenbank, Adam Peaty, James Guy and Duncan Scott.

Peaty and Guy look to be making reappearances on the relay in Paris, this time potentially joined by Oliver Morgan in backstroke and Matt Richards in freestyle. Morgan and Peaty both won their individual events at the British National Championships and are the top-ranked British representative in their respective strokes, with Morgan posting a best time of 52.70 in the 100 back and Peaty posting a time of 57.94 in the 100 breast.

Adam Peaty James Guy (photo: Jack Spitser)

Peaty has been much faster in the past, as his lifetime best is a 56.88 and he split a 56.53 on the relay at the last Olympics; he has not broken 57 since then, so we will have to see if he can get back to top form in Paris.

As the only British swimmer entered in the 100 fly at the Olympics, Guy is the likely choice for the relay. Although he is seeded in the individual event with a time of 51.43 from the 2023 World Championships, his recent performance at the national championship left something to be desired; Guy he placed 4th with a time of 52.26, his best this season. Richards also posted a slower time at British nationals than he is entered with in Paris (48.01 compared to 47.45), but still came out on top of the field.

Great Britain should be able to slide under the 3:30 mark and land solidly in the middle of the final in the 4×100 medley. Despite placing 5th in Fukuoka with a time of 3:30.16, their Tokyo performance proved the nation’s ability to race significantly faster than that. If we add up each of the swimmers’ entry times, Great Britain would have a projected time of 3:29.52, which should be even faster with the addition of relay starts.

France

France is another nation where the relay squad is a bit more up in the air, especially as they lack a representative in the individual 100 breast.

There are a few options of who the breaststroke leg could go to. Antoine Viquerat swam breast on the relay in Tokyo and won the 100 breast at the French Elite Championships in June, but Leon Marchand raced breast on the relay at the 2023 World Championships. Given that Marchand’s personal best (59.06) is a second faster than Viquerat’s (1:00.07), he seems to be the more likely option.

We can likely expect to see Yohan Ndoye-Brouard in the backstroke leg; he is a veteran on this relay, having competed in both Tokyo and Fukuoka. Although he was the runner-up by .02 in the 100 back at the French Elite Championships, his time of 52.84 from Worlds in 2023 makes him the top French seed heading into Paris.

The butterfly and freestyle legs are also up for debate, as Maxime Grousset was the top qualifier in both individual races. With a smaller margin separating him from the runner-up in the 100 fly than the 100 free, we might anticipate Grousset to take the free leg while Clement Secchi does fly.

The add-up of their individual times from Championships (using Marchand’s best) gives France a projected time of 3:30.43, nearly the same as adding up their Olympic entry times (3:30.37). Take into account the bonus of relay starts, and France’s predictive add-up is fairly spot on with their 2023 Worlds performance, which saw them take 4th in a 3:29.88, and could even see them slide in ahead of Australia.

Elite Eight

There are obviously no guarantees here, but based on the seed times of each of the relays, there are a handful of other nations who may not make it onto the podium but will be in close contention with each other to make it into the final, becoming one of the elite eight, if you will.

Netherlands

After not competing in this relay in Tokyo, the Netherlands is the #6 seed heading into Paris, with a time of 3:31.23 that they posted when the team of Kai van Westering, Arno Kamminga, Nyls Korstanje and Stan Pijnenburg won silver at the 2024 World Championships in Doha. Van Westering and Kamminga can be expected to repeat their roles at the Olympics; while neither competed at the Dutch National Championships, they are both the fastest Dutch entrants in the 100 back and 100 breast, respectively.

Nyls Korstanje (photo: Jack Spitser)

Korstanje should also repeat his performance in the fly leg, as he won the individual event at the national championships in a season best time of 50.94, just off his entry time of 50.78. Meanwhile it looks like Sean Niewold will anchor as the free leg, having posted a best time of 48.14 at the national championships and won the event, although Pijnenburg is also on the roster for the relay and could sub in.

The add-up of each individual’s Olympic entry time in their respective strokes gives the nation a projected time of 3:31.40, which keeps them right in the running to make the final.

Italy

Italy won bronze in Tokyo with a time of 3:29.71 but has since dropped in the world rankings a bit; they are now seeded 7th going into the Games with a time of 3:31.59 from the 2024 World Championships. Despite the dropoff in their time, Italy won bronze with their performance in Doha, less than half a second behind the Netherlands.

The anticipated lineup for Italy’s relay squad based on the top qualifiers is Thomas Ceccon in back, Nicolo Martinenghi in breast and Alessandro Miressi in free, all of whom have been regulars on this relay over the last few years. However, the fly leg is up for debate, as Italy does not have any individual qualifiers in the men’s 100 fly. We could see Ceccon bumped to fly and Michele Lamberti put in the back leg, as Lamberti qualified in the individual 100 back and previously led off the 4×100 medley in Doha.

If we run with this idea, Italy’s projected cumulative time using the Olympic seed times would be a 3:31.76, which is right around their Worlds performance. The fact that Italy lacks as much depth in fly will definitely pose a challenge when it comes to securing a spot in the final, but if all four swimmers manage to turn in a performance close to their top form, they may still be able to sneak into the top eight.

Germany & Canada

Germany and Canada’s relay teams will have to fight for a spot in the final right off the bat, as they are tied for the #8 spot in the seedings. Both nations posted a time of 3:32.11 at the 2023 World Championships, tying for 5th overall.

Germany may hold an edge over Canada this time around, as the nation has swimmers competing in each individual 100 of stroke, whereas Canada lacks a qualifier in the individual 100 breast.

If we take Germany’s fastest qualifier in each stroke, the relay lineup would be Ole Braunschweig in back, Lucas Matzerath in breast, Kaii Winkler in fly and Josha Salchow in free. Using their Olympic seed times, that gives them a cumulative projected time of 3:31.57.

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Despite lacking some depth in the strokes, Canada has shown more consistent performances than Germany in recent years; the Canadian relay team placed 7th in Tokyo and 4th at Worlds in 2024 while the Germans did not crack the final at either of those meets.

By virtue of being the top finishers in their respective strokes at the Canadian Swimming Trials, Blake Tierney and Josh Liendo should be locked in for the back and fly legs. They also both posted personal best times at the meet, and are the top-ranked Canadian swimmers in their races heading into Paris. Joining them on the relay will be Finlay Knox in breaststroke, while Yuri Kisil will likely take the free leg (he was the runner-up behind Liendo at Canadian Trials and will be contesting the individual 100 free in Paris).

The add-up of their seed times, all of which they posted at Trials, gives the Canadians a projected time of 3:32.39, which is notably farther behind Germany’s projected time and will put them in a much tougher spot to make the final.

The Verdict

Looking at the projected times for each relay, it is shaping up to be a bitter battle for gold between the United States and China. Despite being seeded a second and a half behind the U.S., China’s predictive add-up is only .07 behind the United States. As tough as it is to determine who will win, it seems like China may have the edge here.

While the U.S. holds the world record and has never lost an Olympic relay in this race, they also have not gone under 3:27 since the last Olympics. China on the other hand came very close to breaking that barrier with their 3:27.01 at the Asian Games, and will likely see that exact same relay lineup coming together again in Paris. As fast as the American men are, even their lifetime best times do not add up to be quicker than 3:27.01, which makes it a lot harder to see them definitively securing the gold instead of China.

This match up could easily go either way, especially as the Americans will be gunning to hold onto their winning streak, but looking at the times on paper, the race seems to be leaning in favor of China. Either way, both teams will have to turn in top-notch swims in order to match their previous performances.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Japan – Japan placed 7th at the 2023 World Championships but did not manage to break into the final in 2024. Their performance from the 2023 Worlds has them seeded 10th with a time of 3:32.36, but in Tokyo the Japanese relay threw down a time of 3:29.91 to take 6th. Two of that same relay looks like it will be coming back (Katsuhiro Matsumoto and Naoki Mizunuma), while the other top performers from the Japanese Selection Trials were Riku Matsuyama and Taku Taniguchi. The cumulative add-up of their Olympic seed times in each stroke would give Japan a time of 3:35.34, which is nearly four seconds behind the projected time to make the final. However, they have proven their ability to swim under the 3:30 mark, so if they manage to throw down top performances closer to their lifetime bests, Japan could easily move up the rankings.