As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order. SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential. These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion. If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in our comments section.
Braden Keith, Spencer Penland, Yanyan Li, Sophie Kaufman, Robert Gibbs and Anya Pelshaw contributed to this report.
With less than a month until conference season, we’ve seen some teams suit up for dual meets to get in more suited times. There was not a ton of shifting on the women’s side
Previous Ranks
- NCAA Women’s Power Rankings – Pre-Season Edition
- NCAA Women’s Power Rankings – November Edition
- NCAA Women’s Power Rankings – December Edition
Honorable Mentions: Arizona, Princeton, Notre Dame, Florida State, South Carolina
#25: ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS – (PREVIOUS RANK: NR)
Braden: I think Florida State and Arkansas are in very similar positions swimming-wise, but with Florida State diver Samantha Vear faltering a little in dual meet competition and Arkansas freshman Anna Arnautova, a European Junior Champion from Ukraine, looking strong, I’ll bump Arkansas back ahead here.
#24: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 24)
Braden: It’s still the divers.
#23: LSU TIGERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 23)
#22: VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES -1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 21)
#21: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 19)
Braden: If Jada Scott is out for Alabama (she hasn’t raced this semester, and the school has so far been mum on their explanations), that is a hit for the Crimson Tide and especially their very-good sprint free relays. Avery Wiseman is on fire, though.
#20: MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS +2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 22)
Braden: Megan van Berkom is still on a tear, but don’t overlook freshman diver Elna Widerstrom. While she hasn’t dived a ton for Minnesota this season, when she has she’s been very good. She and returning sophomore Vivi Del Angel give Minnesota one of the best 1-2 diving punches in the country even after the graduation of Joy Zhu.
#19: AUBURN TIGERS +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 20)
Braden: Big Win against Alabama. Not a ton of individual points out there still, but they looked really good against their rivals. Hopefully they didn’t shoot what they’ve got too early?
#18: DUKE BLUE DEVILS -1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 17)
Braden: Big showdown this weekend against UNC. The Tar Heels won at home by 28 points last year. This Duke team is as deep as its been, though, so this one should come down to the wire.
#17: TEXAS A&M AGGIES +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 18)
Braden: There’s a huge vacuum in women’s NCAA diving, and the Aggies stand to benefit from that as much as anybody with a deep diving core.
#16: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 16)
Braden: The Arizona State women didn’t do what their men did on their Bay Area road trip, and as their coach Bob Bowman has said, they’re in a different spot than the men. They’ve got a really good and really tight core of swimmers, but this might be a year they go after climbing the conference ladder rather than NCAAs.
#15: NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 15)
Braden: Aranza Vazquez just doesn’t lose (5-straight victories on 1-meter). Between Olympic redshirts and graduations, it’s hard to see anyone coming close to her on the springboards at NCAAs. That gives them a 50+ point head start on programs like Arizona State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and most others in this range. The swimmers have work to do to support her though – I suspect the UNC relays are better than their current rankings.
#14: WISCONSIN BADGERS –2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 12)
Braden: I don’t think this drop is about anything Wisconsin has done wrong. They had a great meet against Northwestern, especially Mackenzie McConagha, who swam a lifetime best of 1:55.60 in the 200 fly and season-bests of 1:53.88 in the 200 back and 52.79 in the 100 fly.
#13: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 14)
Spencer: I continue to inch this Michigan team up. They’re going to have very good free relays at the end of the season and they have several swimmers who could score significantly at NCAAs. Stephanie Balduccini is excellent and will be in the running for Big Ten Freshman of the Year a few weeks. Fellow freshman Hannah Bellard could be in the running for those honors as well.
#12: GEORGIA BULLDOGS +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 13)
YanYan: The only thing that happened this month in women’s swimming that in my opinion was worth a slight switchup in the rankings was Abby McCulloh’s 9:27.08 1000 free that leads the nation right now. We’ve always known how good that Georgia distance group is, but that was a statement swim from her.
#11: CAL GOLDEN BEARS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 11)
Braden: Now a combined program, the Cal women seem to be moving in lockstep with the Cal men. That’s a very positive sign for the Cal women.
Spencer: Since they’ve been combined, this Cal team just keeps looking better and better. I won’t be surprised at all if they pop off at Pac-12s and end up firmly in the top 10 heading into NCAAs.
#10: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 10)
Braden: Camille Spink going 22.15 against Georgia last week was a revelation. Probably not enough to overcome the USC divers, for example, but it is a positive sign.
#9: NC STATE WOLFPACK –2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 7)
Braden: NC State still has a top 3 swimmer in the NCAA in Katharine Berkoff. But losing to a (admittedly very good) Virginia team by 180 points last week was a jaw-dropper. That’s almost twice the gap of last year’s meet.
#8: USC TROJANS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 8)
Braden: Dobler and the divers make for a great setup for USC. Nothing much has changed for them this semester, they’ve still gotta prove they can show up in March.
#7: INDIANA HOOSIERS +2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 9)
Spencer: IU looks good as we head towards conference championship season. They lack depth in some areas, which is important for conference meets but becomes less important once we get to NCAAs. The relays will still be great, diving is excellent, and they have some true star swimmers.
#6: STANFORD CARDINAL – (PREVIOUS RANK: 6)
Anya: Stanford has lacked a dominant breaststroke group in recent years but already have three girls under the minute mark in the 100, including their top two swimmers as freshman.
#5: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES – (PREVIOUS RANK: 5)
Spencer: The importance of all those seniors coming back as fifth years was on full display last week when Ohio State dominated a Michigan team that took Indiana down to the wire the day before. The depth this OSU team has is going to serve them very well when Big Tens roll around here in a few weeks.
#4: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 4)
Braden: Gabi Albiero still hasn’t been as fast as she was at the SMU Classic to open the season, but she was really fast there. I’m hoping she’s set up for some kind of a wild super-taper. The ‘projected scoring’ isn’t favorable for the Cardinals right now, putting them 11th. But the broken record is that Louisville ALWAYS shows up for NCAAs, and not everyone behind them does.
#3: FLORIDA GATORS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 3)
Braden: Still a bit of concern about Bella Sims as a freshman, she was 49.4 in the 100 free and 53.0 in the 100 back coming out of winter training against South Carolina. This weekend’s meet against Florida State will tell us a lot. Gators still rising on some breakout swimmers, though.
#2: TEXAS LONGHORNS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 2)
Braden: It has felt like a quiet year for Texas, though we’re back to a spot where if you sort of do the math of Texas’ swimmers + divers versus Virginia’s swimmers, it looks like the Longhorns have a chance. No meets since their mid-season invite.
#1: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 1)
Braden: Every time they get in the pool, it seems like Virginia is doing something we’ve never seen before. Their dual against UNC and NC State is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before in women’s swimming, with several nation-leading times. Tess Howley going a season-best, and score-worthy time, in the 200 back of 1:53.47 is a positive sign. Virginia needs that next tier swimmers to start popping to help carry the momentum forward.
WRITER BALLOTS
| James | Braden | Robert | Spencer | Yanyan | Anya | Sophie | |
| 1 | Virginia | Virginia | Virginia | Virginia | Virginia | Virginia | Virginia |
| 2 | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas |
| 3 | Florida | Florida | Florida | Florida | Louisville | Florida | Florida |
| 4 | Louisville | Louisville | Louisville | Louisville | Florida | Louisville | Louisville |
| 5 | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Ohio State | USC | Ohio State | Ohio State |
| 6 | Ohio State | Ohio State | Ohio State | NC State | Ohio State | NC State | Stanford |
| 7 | NC State | Indiana | USC | Indiana | Tennessee | Stanford | Indiana |
| 8 | Indiana | USC | Indiana | Stanford | Indiana | Indiana | NC State |
| 9 | Tennessee | Tennessee | Cal | USC | NC State | USC | USC |
| 10 | USC | Cal | Georgia | Tennessee | Stanford | Cal | Tennessee |
| 11 | Cal | NC State | NC State | Cal | Cal | Tennessee | Cal |
| 12 | Georgia | Georgia | Michigan | Michigan | Georgia | Michigan | Georgia |
| 13 | Wisconsin | UNC | Wisconsin | Georgia | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | UNC |
| 14 | Michigan | Wisconsin | Tennessee | Wisconsin | Arizona State | UNC | Michigan |
| 15 | UNC | Michigan | UNC | UNC | Micigan | Georgia | Wisconsin |
| 16 | Texas A&M | Arizona State | Arizona State | Texas A&M | UNC | Texas A&M | Arizona State |
| 17 | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | Arizona State | Duke | Arizona State | Texas A&M |
| 18 | Duke | Duke | Duke | Virginia Tech | Alabama | Duke | Duke |
| 19 | Alabama | Auburn | Auburn | Duke | Texas A&M | Minnesota | Auburn |
| 20 | Auburn | Alabama | Alabama | Minnesota | Minnesota | Virginia Tech | Alabama |
| 21 | Minnesota | Virginia Tech | Minnesota | Alabama | LSU | Alabama | Virginia Tech |
| 22 | Virginia Tech | Minnesota | Arizona | Auburn | Auburn | Auburn | Minnesota |
| 23 | LSU | Purdue | Arkansas | Purdue | Virginia Tech | LSU | Florida State |
| 24 | Princeton | LSU | Princeton | LSU | Arkansas | Florida State | LSU |
| 25 | Arkansas | Arkansas | Notre Dame | Florida State | Purdue | Purdue | South Carolina |
Ummm… but didn’t Wisconsin beat Michigan by a significant amount?? Interesting…
I hate to be that person here: But Bella Sims just went 1:47.0/9:51 in the 200/1000 free events… Idc if they are in the hardest training of their lives, a swimmer who has been 1:40.7/9:22 doesn’t just add 6+ seconds in a 200, and 29 seconds in a 1000. A bit of a concern if you ask me.
Do you remember Erica Sullivan’s regression at texas? I hope that doesn’t happen with Sims.
She went 4:01 in the 400 IM and 4:32 in the 500 midseason. It’s a little too early to say the sky is falling.
Gretchen Walsh said on Missy Franklin and Katie Hoff’s podcast that they wanted to go for it in the 800 free relay this year. I assume that means G. Walsh/A. Walsh/Canny/ and either Tiltmann, Nelson, or Gormsen. She didn’t say if she was talking about conference or NCAAs, but if she meant NCAAs do we think losing G. Walsh from one of the sprint relays could open the door for another team to upset them?
Also, I looked at Virginia’s roster to spell Gormsen’s name and noticed that Claire Curzan was listed. Is it normal for redshirts to be on the roster? Stanford has Huske listed too. Texas does not list Johnston but, oddly does list Jake Foster on the roster as a grad student.
She’s been listed all year. Yes it’s normal. Gives them certain privileges to participate with the team.
Johnston not being at Texas means there’s no upside to putting him on the roster.
Umm I think I accidentally broke the Jake Foster news. Yay, I’m helping!
Lol that was my first thought too when Robert dropped in the Slack “is Jake Foster swimming?”
The dots all connected.
I can see:
Canny/Nocentini/A.Walsh/Parker on the 4×100 free
G.Walsh/A.Walsh/Canny/Tiltmann on the 4×200 free
G.Walsh/Canny/Nocentini/Parker on the 4×50 free
G.Walsh/Nocentini/A.Walsh/Parker on the 4×50 medley
G.Walsh/Nocentini/A.Walsh/Canny on the 4×100 medley
4×50 free is an easy win. I think 4×100 medley should be a pretty clean win too.
NCSU could be a risk in the 4×50 medley; MacCausland was 25.69 last year so even with how fast G.Walsh is, UVA could be at a deficit over the first 2 legs and Arens was 21.2 last year so Virginia may not be able to catch up. NCSU lost Alons but UVA lost both Cuomo and Douglass. I also don’t know who the NCSU butterflyer would be so… Read more »
Interesting the discrepancy between this and the CSCAA poll. Wonder if those members just click aimlessly to appease friends and peers.
The rankings serve different purposes. The CSCAA is strictly a dual meet poll, while the SwimSwam power rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential.
We used to vote in the CSCAA rankings.
It wasn’t a great process, notably in that it starts with a phone call where they discuss how they’re supposed to vote, and then are given certain instructions on where teams may fall.
The D1 process is a little more open, the D2 and D3 process is basically a groupthink.