Key Losses: Tom Shields (multi-NCAA champion, American Record holder), Trevor Hoyt (2 A-Finals, 2 relay swims), Austin Brown (2012 NCAA qualifier), Ben Hinshaw (1 B-Final, 1 relay swim)
2012-2013 Lookback:
After putting together a bit of an upset at the 2012 NCAA championships, the early national perception was that the 2013 meet was Cal’s to lose. They dominated a meet that was largely considered a three-team battle between Texas, Stanford, and Arizona, and although a few of their bigger pieces (Martin Liivamagi, Nolan Koon, Mathias Gydesen) were graduating, all of their individual points and relay slots looked to be immediately replaced by newcomers Tony Cox (Auburn transfer), Josh Prenot, and Jacob Pebley. With every base covered, the Bears were all but set for a three-peat.
Three things happened, though:
- Tyler Messerschmidt didn’t compete at 2013 NCAA’s.
- Michigan, who finished 270 points back from Cal the previous year, turned out to suddenly be an unstoppable freight train. Propelled by top flight performances from Miguel Ortiz, Connor Jaeger, and Dylan Bosch, the Wolverines carried a wave of momentum from the early season and never looked back.
- All in all, Cal wasn’t quite the “Cal” we’re used to seeing at NCAA’s.
Over the previous four years, Cal had built a reputation as the best-performing team top-to-bottom at NCAA’s. They had some amazing performances last spring, headlined by Tom Shields, who capped off a brilliant NCAA career with a his biggest workhorse effort to date, logging 13 swims over three days (including seven on day two) that netted 57 individual points, an American record in the 200 fly, and some crazy-fast relay splits. Prenot (three A-Finals) and Pebley (two A-Finals, one relay) were incredible, as well.
However, in order to beat Michigan without their best sprinter, the Bears needed to fire on all cylinders and have a few swimmers drop bombshells early on to set the tone (for example, Marcin Tarczynski upsetting David Nolan in the 200 IM in 2012). A few of their key athletes weren’t at the top of their game, and despite a bit of a rally on the final day of the meet, Cal ultimately came up short.
2013-2014 Preview:
Big Losses:
Boasting some of the world’s best underwaters, Tom Shields was a four-year force for the Bears, winning 11 NCAA titles in his career (six individuals, five relays). Without mincing words, he’s irreplaceable for Cal this year. That being said, between Marcin Tarczynski taking over the fly legs (he’s been sub-46 from a flat start), and their outstanding depth in some other events, such as the 100 back (Ryan Murphy, Tony Cox, and Jacob Pebley) and the sprint freestyles (Seth Stubblefield, Shayne Fleming, Fabio Gimondi, and Tyler Messerschmidt), Cal can withstand the loss.
Even though Shields was responsible for more points and relay swims, an argument could be made that the loss of Trevor Hoyt is almost as important, given Cal’s remaining personnel in the sprint breaststrokes. Hoyt is a four-time individual All-American, including a pair of top three finishes in the 200 breaststroke at 2012 and 2013 NCAA’s. He held down the second leg on both medley relays last year, turning in the third fastest splits in each field to keep the Bears within striking distance for Shields to close the gap on the fly leg.
In place of Hoyt, the Bears will look to Christian Higgins and Josh Prenot to carry the breaststroke torch. Higgins was one of the top breaststroke recruits in the country back in 2011, and although he has an incredibly amount of talent and has scored at NCAA’s in each of his first two seasons (13th in the 100 in 2012, 14th in the 200 last year), he has yet to display a ton of consistency. He hasn’t competed so far this season, and if there are underlying reasons for his absence (injury or sickness) that will keep him out of the water for an extensive period, Prenot could be the only elite breaststroker on Cal’s NCAA roster. That’s not the end of the world; Prenot is very good. However, he will have to pull a tough back-to-back on day two if he gets thrown on the 200 medley.
That being said, Cal has been known to have some breaststrokers come out of the woodwork (think Nolan Koon back in 2009). Keep an eye on Scott Haeberle or freshman Hunter Colbeigh to drop some big time.
Big Arrivals:
It’s tough to call Tyler Messerschmidt an “arrival”, since he has previously competed for the Bears, but his return to Berkeley couldn’t have come at a better time if Cal wants to stand atop the podium in March. Back in 2012, Messerschmidt jump-started the Bears title-winning team with a superb freshman performance, taking part in two NCAA-winning relays, earning All-American honors in the 100 free, and scoring in his other two individual events.
Messerschmidt missed the 2012-2013 season for academic reasons, but he’s already proven he’s ready to reclaim his role for the Bears this season. After turning in lifetime best times at a sectional meet last March (his 19.25 and 42.32 in the 50 and 100 freestyles would have been 4th at NCAA’s, and his 1:34.17 200 free would have placed eleventh), Messerschmidt has already broken 45 seconds at multiple dual meets this season. He should score at least 35 individual points and be a critical leg on four relays for the Bears.
Last fall, Cal landed potentially one of the most important recruits in program history (right up there with Shields and Matt Biondi) in Ryan Murphy. The #2 ranked recruit in this class (and probably one of the top five recruits of all time) from the legendary Bolles School arrives on campus as a favorite to finish in the top three in (and possibly win) both backstroke events, and probably has another individual A final performance in him.
Murphy isn’t just a backstroker, though, brining top ten times in seven different events: 19.5 in the 50 free, 42.9 in the 100 free, 1:35 in the 200 free, 45.3 in the 100 back, 1:38.1 in the 200 back, 47.4 in the 100 fly, and 1:44.4 in the 200 IM. Murphy will immediately step into the backstroke spot on both medley relays, and almost certainly take part in the 400 and 800 freestyle relays, as well.
Although the rest of this freshmen class doesn’t boast the same credentials as Murphy (then again, few swimmers ever have out of high school), there are a few other new guys that—given Dave Durden’s proven track record of quickly developing sprinters—could be contributors this spring for a championship run:
- Sven Campbell is the probably the next biggest name in this class, having posted top times in both sprint freestyle (20.2/44.2) and backstroke events (47.6/1:43.8).
- Just behind Campbell is Long Gutierrez, who in addition to being a quality sprint freestyler (20.6/44.5/1:37.6), also adds a 48.1 butterfly to the mix.
- Jonathan Fiepke (20.4/44.7) and Dillon Williams (20.8/46.0) are both quality sprint recruits, but will probably be longer-term projects for Durden.
- Harrison Thai and Hunter Colbeigh bring some versatility to this class; Thai has been 1:47 in the 200 IM, and Colbeigh is a 55.2 and 1:59 breaststroker.
Sprinters on Sprinters
While the Bears may lack depth in the breaststrokes, a stroke they have owned for the last few years, they are absolutely loaded in the sprint freestyle events. In addition to Messerschmidt, Cal has four other guys capable of splitting well under 19.0 and 42.5:
|
50 free (flat start) |
50 free (relay) |
100 free (flat) |
100 free (relay) |
|
| Tyler Messerschmidt |
19.25 |
18.83 |
42.32 |
41.68 |
| Seth Stubblefield |
19.46 |
18.68 |
42.68 |
— |
| Shayne Fleming |
19.41 |
18.94 |
43.71 |
42.71 |
| Fabio Gimondi |
19.68 |
19.10 |
43.31 |
42.28 |
| Ryan Murphy |
19.54 |
— |
42.95 |
— |
Stubblefield and Fleming were both individual All-Americans a year ago, and Gimondi has proven to be a monster relay swimmer in his first two years at Cal. Those three teamed up with Messerschmidt to win the 2012 NCAA title in the 200 freestyle relay out of lane 8, and have to be considered contenders in both the 200 and 400 free relays at this point. With Murphy and a couple other guys on the roster looking to steal a spot (Tony Cox split 19.30 last year), Durden will have the luxury of mixing up the free relay personnel. We haven’t truly seen the best from Murphy, either, who has been relegated to the leadoff legs for Bolles’ relays, and was focused primarily on the Short Course World Championships during last short course season.
Backstrokers on Backstrokers
We all know how good Murphy already is, but he’s just one of four All-American backstrokers on this roster. Jacob Pebley was top 8 in both backstrokes as a true freshman, and first year Bear Tony Cox led off both medleys, and turned in the fourth fastest 100 back= of the meet in his consolation final victory (45.46). Not to be left out, Marcin Tarczynski is capable of swimming a 45-high in the 100 back (he was 46.0 two years ago), and has also broken 1:42 in the 200.
After swimming the 100 back on day two during his two seasons, Tarczynski changed his mid-meet focus to the 100 fly. That shift will pay big dividends this year for Tarczynski, who will take over for Shields as Cal’s #1 flyer. While Tarczynski couldn’t duplicate his great 2012 NCAA meet, he still made two championship finals last season (100 fly and 200 IM, his best event), and will be a threat to score 40 or more individual points in his final season.
The Best of the Rest
We’re running over the word count, and haven’t still haven’t discussed four other NCAA qualifiers (including an NCAA champion). Just speaks to the amount of talent this Cal has:
- Will Hamilton was a top recruit when he arrived in Berkeley in the fall of 2011, but few expected him to turn into an NCAA champion and three event scorer right away. At 2012 NCAA’s, Hamilton recorded the fastest 200 fly time ever for a freshman, upsetting a field that including the NCAA record holder and teammate Tom Shields. Hamilton fell short of expectations last season, scoring just 13 individual points after totaling 36 the previous year. The talent is still there, however, and if he has the rebound season the Bears need, we could easily see Hamilton could 35-40 points again.
- Over the last three years, senior Jeremy Bagshaw and junior Adam Hinshaw have helped solidify the distance group that was dead in the water for years. Bagshaw has gradually improved every season so far at Berkeley, and turned into an NCAA scorer in 2013. Hinshaw scored in two events last season, and while he may not be the most technically sound swimmer, he’s easily one of the toughest guys out there.
- Trent Williams looks primed for a great sophomore season after some huge time drops over the course of his freshman campaign. He cut almost three seconds off his previous best in the 200 free to earn an NCAA roster spot, and swam the second fastest leg on Cal’s 800 free relay at NCAA’s.
The Overall Outlook:
Despite the loss of their most valuable swimmer (Shields) and their clear #1 breaststroker (Hoyt), Cal has a great shot to come out of this season with a championship. While Michigan returns a boatload of individual points, the addition of Murphy and Messerschmidt, combined with the graduating Wolverine sprinters puts the odds in favor of the Bears. Pains me to say it, but if any of their breaststrokers can split at or under :24 and :52, I’m calling the Bears the favorite. That’s a pretty big caveat.
Mixed results for Cal men at Winter Nationals. Not enough individual guaranteed NCAA qualifiers at mid season will force Cal to taper too many swimmers at PAC 12’s. Good luck beating Michigan at NCAA’s.
Why is Cal going to UNLV for a fall invitational meet? UNLV pool is not that fast, and I’m asking if Cal swimming is struggling for funding, as their revenue teams are in complete free fall. And yes, I’m aware of the big 3 donors they have for aquatics.
Has anyone compared the majors that Cal swimmers, especially on the men’s side, are choosing relative to Stanford’s picks? I have and there is a clear difference in academic philosophy between the 2 programs.
Just a couple questions to ponder.
what are you saying…
1. Cal men are not going to the UNLV for fall invitational.
2. Cal women are going to the UNLV for fall invitational
3. Guess who else is going to the UNLV for fall invitational?
4. The answer is: Stanford men’s team
needless to say, you have yet once again proven that things you say have no basis.
I have come to the conclusion that you just don’t like Cal swimming. It must pain you to hear about Chuck Katis transferring to Cal.
Have you ever looked at GPA inflation of Cal vs Stanford? Average GPA of Stanford 3.54, average GPA at Berkeley, 3.27. It’s well known that at privates you pay for your grade.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/19/want-a-higher-g-p-a-go-to-a-private-college/?src=busln&_r=0
Cal just got a verbal from Kyle Gornay making their class even more impressive! Not so sure about Cals’ once premier academic standing holding in the future. Over the last few years with the CA budget cuts, coupled with gov’t waste & fraud, this has impacted several of the schools/departments at the UC schools. Many students now require an extra year or more to graduate, because they simply can’t get the classes they need. Good news that athletes usually get priority and doesn’t effect them the same way.
BTW the Cal campus is great. The City of Berkeley is a dump.
To Achilles’ comment:
Are you just basing this on the fact that we didn’t get Dressel? And is the “horrifc city of Berkeley” the best answer you came up with? Are you kidding me… I don’t even know on what standards you think Berkeley is “horrific” but do you REALLY think that’s why???
“Cal has already been hurt in the upcoming recruiting class” So what I’m getting from this is that you didn’t think Berkeley was such a horrific city last year right? But all of sudden, this recruiting class doesn’t consist of super stars with the same caliber as Murphy, and you think it must be because Berkeley is horrific?
I’m sure the recruits take into… Read more »
Gornay is a big lift for Cal, but they are still slipping slowly over time. A program that can get big fish in from high school but not show much progression over 4 to 5 years at Cal will not make it in the long run. More than 60% of their swimmers, male and female, show very small progress in lowering times.
first, you say that we can’t get any big fish. Now that we get a big fish, you say that Cal is “a program that can get big fish in”
Cal swimmers show very small progress? more than 60%? You are so full of it. You say things that have no basis.
And you are right. Getting Gornay is a big lift for Cal. It would’ve been a big lift for any school. This class will still probably add one or two more solid recruits.
oh and by the way, seems like usc has already been hurt in the upcoming recruiting class. I think it must be because the horrible city of los angeles. (sarcasm intended)
Your skin is very thin.
Jamey Lyon has dropped 37 secs. in his 1650 time, 8 seconds in his 1000 time, and 8 seconds in his 500 time as a freshman in one season swimming with Yuri at Cal. Might have gone faster in the 500 and 1650 at Pac-12s/NCAAs if he would have gotten an opportunity to swim them again.
One instance where your argument doesn’t hold water (sorry). I suppose your focus wasn’t on the distance program, as they don’t count for many points.
Achilles you do contradict yourself by stating so many things that are contrary to one another. I don’t really think anyone has a right to say that Cal is slipping or anything negative about their program. A finish no lower than 2nd at NCAAs in the past 3 years stands testament that Cal is one of the best, if not the best program in the country. I think that all programs have athletes that progress at different levels and that you’d see something similar in other programs. Cal is capable of pulling down the big fish like Murphy from out of state no less, and Gornay from SoCal which is much different from Berkeley. Tom Shields is from Newport Beach… Read more »
Tom Shields, Ervin, and Adrian are all gone now and as pointed out current roster high talent Prenot, Flemming, Hinshaw, and Campbell are from the Bay Area. Haney seems to have fallen off target.
Cal will do fine in recruiting as usual, like most perennial top 5 teams. However, I tend to agree with Achilles, that they are not recruiting quite as well as some, like Texas and SC.
CalSwimFan may have rose colored glasses on!
Shields, Murphy, Adrian, and Ervin aren’t from Nor Cal or Central California, and more than a few programs recruited them. Biondi and Rocca are the only true Cal male greats over the last 30+ years from the Bay Area. A max of six ( Prenot, Fleming, Hinshaw, Studebaker, Haney, and Campbell) from Cal’s only alleged recruiting pool will be among Durden’s 18 in March. Numbers are even more skewed on McKeever’s team (Li, Breed, and Acker). Coughlin’s from the Bay Area, but Mary T, Vollmer, Leverenz, Pelton, Bootsma, and Missy aren’t even Californians.
You are also forgetting about Trent Williams, Janarden Burns and Jameson Lyon who are also from California, (albeit San Diego and Orange counties) who you also shouldn’t count out for March. Both Trent Williams and Jamey Lyon made the podium last year for Pac-12s (although they had no faith in Jamey and took him as an exhibition only swimmer) and Trent Williams went to NCAAs. Janarden Burns is no slouch either. Things will be VERY interesting this year come championship time!
Lyon is a great distance guy, but as a D guy he lacks the point scoring power in relays/ other strokes. Not a lack of faith in most cases, you will find.
Sorry, but Michael Haney is from Southern California, not NorCal. He is from Rialto which is East of Los Angeles.
My point was the assertion that Cal can only get high-end recruits (sorry, elite-o-meter) from Nor Cal or Central California is patently absurd and easily disproven, The Inland Empire, Orange County, and San Diego aren’t in Central California. Berkeley isn’t everybody’s cup of tea, but Cal freshmen swimmers have been living in dorms a half block below Telegraph for more than 30 years. Nobody misleads them into believing they’ll spend their freshman year living at the Claremont Hotel.
I agree. What seems to be forgotten here is that these kids are supposed to be getting an education, since so few will become “professional swimmers.” Swimming or any college sport is the way to get into a top notch educational institution, when you might otherwise be overlooked during the admission process. I believe many of these kids would never get into these schools if it wasn’t for their athletic talent. The challenge for many of them is once they get in, they have to work hard enough in the classroom to stay there, and sadly some can’t cut it.
I can personally attest to the fact that there are some kids who forgo very large or full-ride athletic… Read more »
okay.. now I know that you’re a joke. thanks.
Cal has already been hurt in the upcoming recruiting class, and that’s before having any chance to get Dressel. I’m with my Indiana friend on this one, the horrific city of Berkeley is one factor that hurts Cal from getting the best recruits outside of Northern and Central CA.
Places I’d go to school based on City. Yes, I’ve been to all of them.
Texas>USC>Zona>Florida>Cal>Michigan>Auburn>Indiana.
Everyone has different preferences and opinions, have you really been to usc? meaning, have you stayed for more than a day? you pretty much can’t walk around after sunset and there is a reason that the campus is fenced..
Obviously, I’m biased, but if you ask almost anybody in California which school has the most dangerous city/campus, their answer will most likely be usc.
To clarify, I have nothing against the school usc. But I thought it was interesting because I haven’t heard anybody choosing usc over cal based on the city. based on the weather, maybe.