Over the next few weeks, as the Long Course season closes out, new freshman are arriving on campus, and fans everywhere ramp up for another exciting NCAA Season, we will be running a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NCAA season. Starting with the no.12 teams and finishing with the defending National Championships (Texas men and Florida women) we will work our way down the top finishers from last year’s NCAAs and will also jump into some rising teams that we expect to break into the top tier this season. Click here to see the other women’s previews, and click here to see all of the previews, Men’s and Women’s.
Key Losses: Julia Smit (53 NCAA Points, 4 Relays) Elaine Breeden (51 NCAA Points, 2 Relays), Stefanie Sutton (6 NCAA Points), Kelly Hug (1 NCAA Point), Whitney Spence (1 Relay)
Key Additions: Felicia Lee (Fly/IM/Back), Andie Taylor (Fly/IM), DiRado (IM/Back), Sara Giberson (Mid-Free), Kirstie Chen (IM/Fly/Back)
2010 Recap: The Stanford Women were the team last season headed into the NCAA Championship meet. They had run through an absolutely brutal dual meet schedule unbeaten. Julia Smit had already set the NCAA records in both IM races. They were the number 1 team in the CSCAA polls. They won the 400 free relay, the very last race in a very tight meet. Despite all that they were, and all that they had, they still came up a brutal 2.5 points short of the Florida Gators at NCAA, which is one of the closest meets in history.
Double-Double Champions: Now, their two best swimmers, Smit and Elaine Breeden have graduated, and Stanford will be looking for a new identity, so-to-speak. Smit was the National Champion in both IM’s, and neither race was very close. Breeden was also a double champion by pulling off victories in both the 100 and 200 flys. The two swimmers combined for 104 NCAA points in individual events, which leaves them just behind Texas for 11th place overall. And that’s if we only count two swimmers.
Out of the Pool and Into the Fire: I’ll get to the freshman early in this writeup, because they are so strong that they are as important as any returning part of this team. They have, without exception, the best incoming class in the nation. This group includes three swimmers who College Swimming gave a perfect 1.0 rating, Felicia Lee, Andie Taylor, and Maya DiRado, and two other rated in the top 50. Stanford coach Lea Maurer did a fantastic job of replacing exactly what the Cardinal lost, and as a result they shouldn’t see as much of a dropoff as they might expect given what they lost.
Lee is one of the best butterfliers in the nation and despite only turning 18 this past summer is already a part of the USA-Swimming National Team. Butterfly is not her only stroke, however, as she has USA-Swimming Senior Nationals cuts in 9 out of the 11 short course events she swam last season. Her best yards times in the butterfly events were 52.71/1:56.18, both of which would have placed her in B-finals at NCAA’s last season. Her time from Nationals in the 100 fly converts to an even swifter 51.2, which would have made her the national champion in that event.
Lee also has outstanding times in the freestyle races (22.99/49.71/1:46.22) that will make her a potential free-relay contributor, and by season’s end a capable NCAA finalist in those events. Her 400 IM time would have made her an NCAA B finalist (4:10.7), and her 100 backstroke (53.3) and 200 IM (1:58.1) bests also would have just missed NCAA finals. As a freshman, she will be one of the best butterfliers in the nation.
Taylor, although she has not put up the same sort of long course times as Lee to qualify for the National Team, has short course times that are just as good in the butterfly events. Her marks last season were 53.70/1:55.43, the latter of which would have left her as the 9th qualifier after NCAA prelims. Taylor too is a top-level IM’er, with a 200 best of 1:58.9, and a 400 time of 4:09.7 which would have placed her in the A-final at NCAA’s.
Lee and Taylor combined give Stanford the top 100 and 200 butterfly recruits in the nation this season, which is key because it will take a combined effort to make up for the points that Breeden lost. By their sophomore years, this tandem will represent two A-finalists, and possible National Champions, in both butterfly events.
DiRado is the least familiar name of the top 3, but is a middle-distance superstar who could final in as many as 5 different events as a freshman. She will likely join Lee on the National Team shortly, as she made the consolation final in her three best events, including 10th place finishes in the 400 IM and 200 back, and a 12th place finish in the 200 IM. She was a 3-time California state champion in the 200 IM, and left as the state’s high school record holder in that event. What’s even more exciting for her potential is that she doesn’t turn 18 until next April, meaning that she is a year behind most freshmen in her class.
But don’t think for a second that her age is going to keep her from being a big-time freshman difference maker for Stanford. Her 1:55.1 in the 200 back would have placed her 15th fastest at NCAA’s last year; her 4:06.4 in the 400 IM would have placed her 6th fastest at NCAA’s last year; and her 1:56.1 in the 200 IM would have placed her 5th fastest at NCAA’s last year. Before she’s done at Stanford, she might wipe Julia Smit’s name off of the school record books. Yeah, she’s that good.
The Cardinal also bring in two middle-distance swimmers who will help shore up depth as freshmen. Kirstie Chen out of California has a 1:59.7 in the 200 fly, and a 4:14.8 in the 400 IM. She is also an above average 200 backstroker and 200 IM’er, and should be good for a handful of NCAA points as a freshman.
Sara Giberson is a long, tall New Yorker who, at 6’1, will be the tallest swimmer on the team. Her best event is the 200 free, where she’s gone a 1:47.9, but should show big gains in either her 100 (51.2) or 500 (4:52.4) as a freshman.
Sprint Hopes: The freshman will be supported by a lot of great returning swimmers, including an impressive sprint corps. Stanford returns 4 out of their top 5 freestylers in both the 50 and the 100 from last season to make some impressive free relays. Last season, they were second in the 200 and champions in the 400, and could pull off the double this year. The top of the list are juniors Betsy Webb and Sam Woodward, who were A-finalists in the 50 free. Webb, who took second overall, went a 22.07 during finals and at only .03 behind champion Liv Jensen of Cal, is a contender for the title again this year. Woodward placed 4th in 22.17. They were also both B-finalists in the 100, with Woodward 11th at 48.55 and Webb 12th at 48.57.
They also bring back senior Kate Dwelley, who at 48.2 finished one spot behind Smit (7th) at NCAA’s. She also B-finaled in the 50 with a season-best time of 22.24. She was also Stanford’s only swimmer to place in the top 40 at NCAA’s in the 200 free, with a 5th place finish in 1:44.40. She will be one of the few swimmers this season who have a shot at upsetting a 1-2-3 (and possibly even 4) finish from Georgia in that event this year.
Andi Murez will likely fill out all three free relays, as the sophomore is a prototypical sprinter (or supermodel for that matter) at 6’1. Her NCAA times in the 50 and 100 last year were 22.66/49.02, leavin her just short of a B-final. In the 200, which she did not swim at NCAA’s but placed third in at Pac-10’s, she had a season-best time of 1:46.02, which would have placed her in 20th place. I’d look for her to add that back to her Nationals lineup this year and score some points in it, along with the 100.
Stanford will be putting a lot of hope on the sprint group to anchor their lineup this season and are especially expecting big things from Dwelley and Webb.
The Best of the Rest: In the longer freestyles, the standout for the Cardinal will be senior Kelsey Ditto. Last season, she was 16th in the 500 and 23rd in the mile at NCAA’s, though both of her times at Nationals were well off of her season bests of 4:41.3/16:10.3. She had a great summer that included a 400 LCM time ranked 47th in the world, and with a better taper this season should be good for double-digit points.
Liz Smith is a Championship favorite in the 200 breaststroke. Last season, she was the runner-up at 2:07.5, behind only Texas A&M’s Alia Atkinson, and is the only swimmer in the top 4 returning this season. She also had the second fastest yards time by an American last season, and finished 10th overall at USA Nationals. It should be down to her, Micah Lawrence from Auburn, Haley Spencer from Minnesota, and a handful of other contenders. Smith is also a better-than-serviceable 100 breaststroker for the medley-she had a 1:00.4 flat-start at Pan Pacs, though Smit took the breaststroke spot in NCAA finals-but swam the IM’s as her other two individual events. Last season, she finished 10th in the 200 and 11th in the 400.
Kerry Kraemer is more of a sprint-breaststroker, with a 1:01.47 at NCAA’s, and took the 200 medley spot at NCAA’s.
Besides the freshman who we already discussed, Stanford doesn’t return a lot of depth in the butterfly events. They also graduated their number two butterflier (Stefanie Sutton, who was 11th in the 100 fly) and number three butterflier (Kelly Hug, who was 16th). Woodward had a good time of 52.81 at Pac 10’s, but slipped back to 31st at NCAA’s. The butterfly events are largely going to be the responsibility of the freshman this season, which could still produce pretty good results based on their quality. Nobody under 2 minutes returns in the 200 fly.
Backstroke is going to be a bit of a question mark for Stanford this year. Webb led off the 400 medley in finals, after some prelims reshuffling, in a fairly good time of 52.39. She also placed 12th individually in the 100. Expect big improvements this year from two sophomores in the 200 back: Megan Fischer-Colbrie (1:56.8) and Jessica Hammes (1:57.7).
Relay Outlook: The Stanford free relays will be very good again this year, but without Smit and Breeden there to make up for weaker backstroke and breaststroke groups, it’s unlikely that either medley will finish much higher than 5th.
Diving: Last season, Stanford sent Meg Hostage, who will be a senior this season, to NCAA’s, though she came up empty in scoring. The closest she came to finaling was an 18th place finish on the platform, where she could sneak a few points this year. She will be joined this year by 4 freshman divers who hope to ramp up the boards for the Cardinal. The best of the group is probably Kylie Rosenstock, who at last season’s USA Diving Jr. West Championships finished 3rd on the 1-meter. She previously placed as high as 4th at Jr. Nationals, and in 2009 was a Sr. Nationals qualifier. They also add Kerrin Seymour, who is a four-time All-American out of Illinois and a former AAU National Champion on the platform. A third recruit, Stephanie Phipps, placed 12th at USA-Diving Winter Nationals on the 1-meter. This group of freshman will help make Stanford’s diving a point of power within the overall program.
2011 Prognosis: The Stanford women will still be very good this season. With a lot of reliance on freshman—albeit incredibly good freshmen—it’s hard to peg how this team will come together this early in the season. Through a combined team effort, Stanford will be able to make up most of what they lose from Breeden and Smit in the individual events. It’s the relays, however, where two A-finalist butterfliers don’t count for as much as a National Champion butterflier, where Stanford will feel their losses the most. The women’s NCAA Championship meet will be one of the tightest in recent memory, and I think there’s too many other loaded teams for the Cardinal to finish any higher than 4th this season.
