Courtesy: Dominique Hérailh
In his latest interview with L’Equipe, Leon Marchand declared, “I didn’t know where I stood; now I know.” He added, “Now it’s more concrete. I’m a long way from my best times of last year, but at least I know what I need to work on…”
The areas he mentioned at the time concern:
- “Reworking” the four strokes
- Improving his underwaters (we can only agree with this observation, based on race images)
- Working on “Tempo”
Let’s take a look at the data collected in Fort Lauderdale and that of the Paris Olympics and see what objective analysis can be made. As the Paris data are much more comprehensive than the Fort Lauderdale data, only certain parameters can be compared. Others, such as amplitude and frequency, cannot be taken into account.
General Data
The first observation concerns the significant difference, in percentage terms, between the 200 IM and 400 IM times. For the former, the difference was only 2.81% more time in the final in Fort Lauderdale than in Paris, whereas for the 400 IM, the difference reached 4.49%. Clearly, Marchand lacked the stamina to compete at his usual level over 400 meters. Analysis of this race shows that other parameters had an influence on the result, as we shall see later.
200 IM Breakdown
Let’s start with the times achieved in the various splits. On butterfly, similar to backstroke, there was only a limited deterioration in performance. The biggest time loss was on breaststroke, which has been Marchand’s strong point until now. The freestyle did not reach the level that specific training in Australia under Dean Boxall would have predicted.
The second graph shows the differences more clearly when expressed as a percentage.
Indeed, while the gap over the entire race was 2.11% in the heats, we can see that the gaps in the fly and back were smaller, while on breast and, to a lesser extent, free, the gaps were larger.
The same was true of the finals: although the overall gap was 2.81%, Marchand lost the most time in the breaststroke.
In this event, we can only agree with Marchand’s analysis of his desire to rework the four strokes. It would seem that the emphasis placed on freestyle during his stay in Australia may have been to the detriment of breaststroke.
Faced with a competitor like Shaine Casas, who excels in all four strokes, Marchand could only lose out.
400 IM Breakdown
Let’s start with the times achieved in the various splits. The gaps are very wide in all the swims, with the exception of the last 100 meters of freestyle, where Marchand achieved the feat of going faster in the final in Fort Lauderdale than in Paris.
Expressed as percentages, the data can be used to identify possible explanations for Marchand’s performance over this distance.
It’s in the final that the lessons are most interesting to analyze. Although Marchand’s finishing time in Fort Lauderdale was 4.49% slower than in Paris, his first 200 meters were relatively slow compared to his last 100, which were faster than Paris. This proves that he saved himself a little too much early in the race. You could say that his race was poorly constructed. My hypothesis is that, knowing Bobby Finke‘s formidable finishing ability, Marchand wanted to save his strength for the last 50 meters. But you can’t play with the world record-holder in the 1500 metres. Either you have enough of a lead to counter his comeback, or you attempt a freestyle duel and stand a good chance of losing.
The following graph shows a different breakdown of Marchand’s race in Fort Lauderdale and Paris. A third curve shows what a symmetrical race to Paris would have looked like, using Marchand’s race time in Fort Lauderdale as a reference. This graph simply shows the imbalance between each stroke.
In conclusion, we can only agree with Marchand’s analysis of his areas for improvement.
In my opinion, he has the most work to do on the breaststroke, as well as on his underwaters.
There are still six weeks to go before the French Championships, which will be the only event to achieve the qualifying times for Worlds.
With the determination that Marchand has always shown, and with guidance provided by Bob Bowman, there’s a reasonable hope that he’ll get back on track and become the Marchand we knew in years gone by.
He Will not do the french shampionships. He does not appear on the official poster. There Will be many disappointments
I’m the first to be disgusted not to see him swimming
It’s embarrassing for the spectators, but it’s good news for him if he’s allowed to continue training in Austin in preparation for the World Championships. Hopefully, the federation will allow him to qualify with times obtained outside the French championship competitions. Without derogation, the FFN rules do not allow it. For the moment, only the “Midi Libre” newspaper is talking about it, and has put the headline in the conditional tense.
“Ce serait un coup dur”… Léon Marchand absent des Championnats de France de natation à Montpellier ? – midilibre.fr
Let’s wait.
Still a rumor based on a poster.
It’s not very reliable
I asked Bob Bowman, he said they’re still figuring that out.
Ok.
Thanks.
While I find Marchand to occasionally get overhyped on here (he’s undeniably the best in the world, but sometimes the 200/400 LCM convos feel egregiously off kilter), I do think it goes without saying that a more apt contrast would’ve been looking at his prior non-tapered LCM performances and seeing how this meet stacked up. He definitely wasn’t tapered for this and the forthcoming meets are more suited to expectations derived from his Olympic results, so perhaps another meet would’ve been better to assess the level he’s at right now.
There’s a meet next week in Austin.
Will he participate in?
Of course, it’s early after Fort Lauderdale.
I’ll be curious to see if his times are even slighty different from that meet.
and untapered too but curious nevertheless in a close meet
lets be honest. We learnt absolutely nothing, I am sure HE learnt something about where he is at.
He closed like a freight train just
That 400 IM
In that 400 IM*
Yeah, came home in 58.11, compared to 58.22 in his WR.
and especially his last 50 in 27.63 (by far his pb) pushed by Finke
Good point. Yeah, I can imagine that he really did not want to lose the 400 IM in particular and was obviously pushed by Finke.
Counterintuitive, to be behind Finke in the 400IM but in front in the 400 free
Yeah, I thought that was weird as well, that he beat Finke in the 400 free, and Finke beat him in the 400 IM.
Marchand’s 400 free was easily his best swim of the meet in my opinion.
I wonder if the 200 free / 400 IM double was just too much for Marchand based on where he is in his training?
I was really surprised he was so far behind halfway through the 400 IM.
In hindsight the training in Australia might have been more for Leon’s mental health than his freestyle. Of course it’s too soon to conclude anything at this point.
Keep in mind that Phelps was just okay (by his standards) at the 2005 world champs compared to Athens. He didn’t swim the 400 IM, was faster in the 200 IM, but slower in both flys. He also swam the 400 free in 2005, but failed to final.
“Both flys”.
I check. He didn’t race 200 fly, no?
Thanks, you are correct. Looks like he swam 100 fly, 200 IM, 200 free, and 400 free.
He also swam the 100 free (and managed to final)
Sure enough, he was 7th in the 100 free. Full results:
https://www.omegatiming.com/File/0001050900FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF00.pdf
Checked for Phelps, but noticed Gretchen would’ve been 2nd in the 100 free with her 100 fly time at these champs!!
What we learned is that he ain’t that great. Biggest name of last olympics but still no swimming superstar like Phelps or Lochte.
why saying this except malice!
He already got four individual golds medals, it’s no small feat.
And I trust him and Bob to know what to do in the future.
He has more Olympic success than Ryan Lochte in just one Olympics bait used to be believable
He took a break to surf and enjoy life. Now he’s training again and will most certainly get back to where he was in Paris. What’s wrong with people and do we need all this analysis?
I agree, this is overblown.
There’s no real comparison to be made between a low-stakes TYR Pro Swim performance from a swimmer who’s come back from a long break, clearly battled injuries, and just moved back into the country to start regular training a month ago, to the OLYMPICS with the same swimmer healthy, tapered, and having trained consistently for years to achieve at the peak of his potential. I normally love the nerdy swim analysis here, but I don’t really understand the point of this article.
Totally agree. There ain’t much significance in doing this analysis at all.
Surely there was no expectations for this meet from either Bowman and Marchand except getting himself back in the groove of racing and using this meet as a race pace set in a competitive environment. Nothing more!
better than Lochte.
I enjoy Léon and I’m french and that’s true from olympic games perspective and of course, that’s the most important in our sport.
Concerning world championships (LCM) and without taking account relays cause Leon is french, Lochte has 10 individual golds and four in a row in 2011.
Léon isn’t yet at that point but will surely come.
And Lochte dominance in SCM is something but Léon potential is big too in the future.
Bob Bowman talked to another french newspaper on saturday “Le Parisien”. Many, many interesting informations. Clearly, it seems that 2025 will be a transition year for Marchand with not very high expectations from Bowman. He didn’t necessarily agree with Marchand’s trip to Australia but understood that he needed a long break to discover another training, another country. But he needs to come back to full training. (plus rib and shoulder injuries)
According to Bowman, Marchand will need a full year to get back to his best and be able to return to his 2024 level by the summer of 2026 (European championships in…France).
He thinks Marchand is able to improve his times. Apparently he would have discuss with… Read more »
“400 free just for fun and improving his medley, or a real goal for 2028?”
Marchand answered your question in the French interview portion: for the moment, he’s using the 400 to improve his medley, but in the future he’d like to swim it in championship competition. He is aware of the gap between himself and the best in this discipline, but will work to reduce it.
He should definitely skip it. There’s no point. The focal point should be Euro 2026 in France
Sorry for my bad english . I’m French. Can he be qualified for the world championship without doing french national?
I don’t know. I guess the french federation will decide.
American championships earlier in June !
Unlikely.
Meet in Austin next week? Too early , no?
Normalement non car il y a une double condition: se classer dans les deux premiers à la finale A des championnats de France et réaliser le temps de qualification. Les temps de qualifications sont:
200 free 1 :46.26
400 free 3:46.78
200 br 2:09.68
200 fly 1:55.78
200IM 1:57;94
400IM 4:12.50
Pour l’instant, il n’a réalisé les minimas que sur le 200IM
Je pense que pour avoir une dérogation de la FFN il faudrait au minimum qu’il réalise les minimas et d’autre part que les deux premiers de la finale A réalisent des temps supérieurs au sien. C’est sûrement ce que va plaider Bob Bowman qui connait bien les membres de la fédération… Read more »
and in Bowman words, Is it really to qualify for worlds in July or skip it and train more instead for 2026.
Dom from France and gene.
je vois que nous sommes entre compatriotes.
Dom from France : Je comprends mieux les critères de qualification maintenant.
et pour gene, : oui c’est pas très explicite de la part de Bob.
Je pense qu’il fera peut-être les mondiaux mais avec un programme réduit (deux épreuves sans doute).
Désolé pour les anglophones mais j’ai la flemme de traduire 😀
Oooh thanks for sharing! That last line is so interesting… the 6-7 years of Michael not taking one day off are so often touted (as they should be) as a sign of his dedication, but he crashed pretty hard coming down off that.
Michael is also an extremely intense person and not saying Léon isn’t (I think all pro athletes have to be), but it seems he has better boundaries in terms of doing things Bob isn’t necessarily a fan of.
I was also interested that Leon didn’t tell Bob about the rib problem till competition 😬 I know I’m nosy, but Michael/Bob’s relationship is one of the most compelling and heartwarming things to me so I’m always… Read more »
I don’t want to be pessimistic but could he really get back to his ‘Paris’ shape in six weeks?
I’m not sure even with his determination and Bowman.
His lack of training is probably too important,
There’s a meet next week in Austin, Will he take part in?
He could at least limit himself to 2 races in worlds (Im’s i guess).
A bigger line-up (4 events or more) will be likely too hard for him to be competitive.
And i don’t think it will go to this competition to be second or third.
Just my thought.
Bob said it will take until summer 2026 for Leon to be in his Paris shape
I agree with you. I think Leon should limit himself to 200 IM and 200br.
The World Championships are in 12 weeks, so it’s possible.
If he wants to have fun and keep busy why not try something like the 100 breast?
How many events Phelps attended in Montreal 2005 ?
and will he participate in world cup legs in fall and european scm?
I think, scm should be less tough than lcm for him this year.
Probably not and he doesn’t expect to.
I reacted to this ‘hopes to return to his Paris form at the World Championships this summer in Singapore’.
I agree with Bob (instead summer 2026) , it doesn’t seem realistic for this summer even if he trains continuously and skip french nationals.
The question is : Could he be competitive even physically encumbered against his competitors.
he could win IMs with 12 weeks solid prep, he wouldnt need to be at his absolute best for that. A bigger program become more difficult.