While it’s still not 100% guaranteed, with five men’s and five women’s finals to go, it is looking increasingly likely that the U.S. will be able to take all swimmers eligible for the Olympic team on the basis of their finishes this week.
As of this morning, there are 22 men who have either finished in the top two in an individual event, or top six in the 100 or 200 freestyle, making them potentially eligible for the team:
Nathan Adrian (100 free)
Gunnar Bentz (4×200 free relay)
Jack Conger (4×200 free relay)
Kevin Cordes (100/200 breast)
Caeleb Dressel (100 free)
Conor Dwyer (200/400 free)
Anthony Ervin (4×100 free relay)
Jimmy Feigen (4×100 free relay)
Townley Haas (200 free)
Ryan Held (4×100 free)
Connor Jaeger (400 free)
Chase Kalisz (400 IM)
Jay Litherland (400 IM)
Ryan Lochte (4×200 free relay)
Cody Miller (100 breast)
Ryan Murphy (100 back)
Michael Phelps (200 fly)
Blake Pieroni (4×100 free relay)
David Plummer (100 back)
Josh Prenot (200 breast)
Tom Shields (200 fly)
Clark Smith (4×200 free relay)
There is, however, a very good chance that each of the five remaining events will see at least one man already on the team finish in the top two.
- The top three seeds in the 50 free, Adrian, Dressel, and Ervin, all currently have guaranteed spots on the team in the 100 free/4×100 free relay, and it’d be fairly shocking if at least one of them didn’t take one of the top two spots in the splash and dash.
- Jaeger, already on the team in the 400 free, is the top seed in the 1500.
- Murphy has been looking strong, and should take one of the top two spots in the 200 back, although he’ll have to hold off Jacob Pebley and Tyler Clary to do so.
- Phelps and Shields, the top two in the 200 fly, also hold the top two seeds in the 100 fly. The #3 seed, Conger, is already on the team by virtue of a 3rd place finish in the 200 free.
- It would be incredibly shocking if Phelps and Lochte failed to finish top two in tonight’s 200 IM final. Both are already on the team.
The picture will be a little less clear on the women’s side until the 100 free final occurs tonight, but as of the moment, there are 16 women who have finished in the top two in an individual event, or top six in the 200 free:
Cammile Adams (200 fly)
Kathleen Baker (100 back)
Elizabeth Beisel (400 IM)
Maya DiRado (200/400 IM)
Hali Flickinger (200 fly)
Missy Franklin (200 free)
Katie Ledecky (200/400 free)
Lilly King (100 breast)
Katie Meili (100 breast)
Melanie Margalis (200 IM, 4×200 free relay)
Cierra Runge (4×200 free relay)
Allison Schmitt (4×200 free relay)
Leah Smith (400 free, 4×200 free relay)
Olivia Smoliga (100 back)
Dana Vollmer (100 fly)
Kelsi Worrell (100 fly)
Just like on the men’s side, it’s looking increasingly likely that all eligible swimmers will be able to make the team.
- Four of the eight women in tonight’s 100 free final are already eligible, meaning they would not cost any additional roster spots.
- Katie Ledecky is almost guaranteed to win the 800 free.
- The top three seeds in the 200 back (Franklin, DiRado, and Beisel) are either guaranteed a spot, or finished #2 in an event.
- Lilly King, who has lane four in tonight’s 200 breast final, is already on the team for sure.
- The 50 free is a bit more up in the air, but it looks like there should be enough roster room to take both swimmers in that event, if they are not eligible for the team in any other events.
Here’s a quick refresher on the selection priorities, as established by USA Swimming:
- Top finishers in every event, plus 2nd-4th place finishers in the 100/200 freestyles.
- The 2nd place finishers in the rest of the individual events.
- The 5th place finishers in the 100/200 freestyles.
- The 6th place finishers in the 100/200 freestyles.
FINA imposes a roster limit of 26 swimmers of each gender, based on the fact that teams can potentially enter two swimmers in each of 13 individual events. The U.S. is typically the only country that has enough depth to bring two swimmers in each event, and thus bump up against the roster limit. It is USA Swimming’s choice to give priority to the top four in the 100/200 freestyles, and that’s why swimmers in the last three priorities have to wait until almost the end of the week to know for sure whether or not there will be room on the roster, although we can’t find a time where anyone eligible was left home.
The wrinkle here is the new rule that all swimmers taken must be used at the meet. With swimmers like Michael Phelps, Ryan Lochte, Conor Dwyer, and Jack Conger lurking for spots (and possibly being the next-best options) in the 400 free relay, or Phelps in the 800 free relay, some of the swimmers who finished 6th in the 100 and 200 free individual races might not be confirmed because of the risks we saw last year at the World Championships: where the American 400 free relay didn’t get out of prelims – which used to feel like a guarantee. But that’s a different conversation, as all of those potential alternates are already likely roster invites anyway.
I’ve actually read the rules and they are absolutely 100% crystal clear on who gets invited. I read somewhere last week that USA has NEVER had to leave a second place finisher or a top six relay swimmer behind. I have carried the entire selection panels out through the end of Trials, and making the assumption semi finals results as of pre-Saturday night hold up, there is a worst-case chance ONE male swimmer would be left behind. It would be a #6 relay swimmer. That requires the highly unlikely result that all remaining spots are filled by people not already qualified. As the rules spell out in detail, and mentioned in this blog, that final cut is based on world… Read more »
I think it would be a mistake for team USA to give Phelps or Lochte a spot on the 4x100free. But for the sake of Australia’s chances I hope they do it.
I understand why Americans would want Phelps in there, I’m not totally convinced his freestyle is up to par at the moment, but he is a big time racer. Lochte only the other than is only good for getting chased down.
I’m not worried about who the US will take to the Games, but what the swimmers stand to contract while they are exposed to the festering open sewer that is Rio.
It is winter in Brazil so the mosquito population has dropped. People more likely to be mugged than catch anything.
During OG they will probably take some measures, ranging from putting the Army to avoid robbers to “social cleaning” and “Paying up crimincal factions” upfront.. sad but true story..
Why does the Olympic Committee allow only 2 swimmers per country in every event? In track, the only sport with a similar trials system, a country can have 3 athletes in every event, and possibly 4, since the defending champ gets an automatic entry. Does swimming just want to prevent a country (USA or Australia being the main possibilities) from going 1-2-3?
I saw that covered on the Lane 9 show last night. The 1976 US swimming team is having a reunion and John Naber was on the show and spoke about the 3 vs. 2 change. During the 1976 Olympics the US men had 4 clean sweeps, won all but 1 gold, won all but 3 silver and still won 5 bronze. The East German woman also had a clean sweep, so FINA changed the rules.
But Track gets sweeps a lot too, how come they’re still allowed to take 3? It’s literally unfair. Especially now when swimming is a lot bigger than it used to be and it’s not so much about a few clear favorites blowing everyone else out of the water. It’s a lot closer now in terms of competition.
The change was made at the boycotted Olympics for political reasons to help the USSR vs. the US.
This meet is already so lethal when it comes to making top 2 individually. Although it’s never happened, the idea of someone qualifying 2nd and not being taken because relay spots need to be filled seems ludicrous! Then Lindsay Mintenko is explaining it away on the live feed by saying the athletes need to do more doubles??
By giving priority to top four qualifiers in relay events, the US is ensuring that they have internationally competitive relays. I don’t see how this is ludicrous. You would rather take top two qualifiers in all events and possibly have to fill a relay spot with someone who doesn’t really swim the event well?
LEAVE FEIGEN AND PIERONI AT HOME!!!!!!!! We all know we want to see at least Phelps and Conger on this relay. And I’d bet most would rather see Lochte or even Haas on this relay over Feigen or Pieroni.
Imma start a damn petition
Feigen is just fine with me. He’s good and consistent when well trained, and it seems like his training has been good for the past year.
I think Conger would probably be a faster choice, yes, but he’s never gone faster than 49.0. Feigen has gone 1.2s faster than that, and swam that fast or faster three times this meet. Hard to make your argument.
And I’d certainly want him on the relay ahead of Haas or Lochte.
It is so hard to make the team, dropping these two would be tragic. Anyway Phelps Lochte and Conger could have forced their way onto the relay if they wanted to, or if they were fit enough to swim doubles.
Feigen and Pieroni earned their way on the team according to the selection procedures, which are completely objective, unbiased and based solely on place and time. It’s not left up to anyone’s discretion. The selection criteria are black and white. If there are enough spots on the team, they will — and should — go. They EARNED it.
What have you done with your life, keyboard warrior?
Wow, this Olympic team is all white. Aside from Ervin (half black), Adrian (half Asian), and Litherland (half Asian), not a minority in sight. It’s 2016. How is this possible??
Are you serious?
I guess we should cheer for Cullen Jones then
Manuel and/or Neal should be making it tonight.
Go look at the US Men’s basketball team and then come back to this discussion.
And the USA basketball team for the Olympics? I’m absolutely in favor of opening swimming up for all people who wish to participate to have access and opportunity to do so (and that is something that can be addressed at the local swim club and community level)…but at the end of the day the Olympic trials works to select the fastest 2 swimmers at the meet without regard to anything other than speed.
Its possible because in 2016 there is still along way to go in diversifying USA swimming and swimming in general. So in the meantime (all the time actually), the fastest get to go. Doesn’t happen over night, but doesn’t mean we can’t call it out.
OH – BLAH BLAH BLAH –
Oh spare me,
I was on the fence and considering supporting swammer81’s argument, but your articulate counterargument was so impressive you won me over!
Call what out? That Caucasians in general are better built for swimming and that blacks are better built for track and b-ball? Not a hell of a lot you can do about long torso/shorter legs vs short torso/longer legs.
This isnt deciding who to admit to a college. Its based on time only.
I wish everything in life was an objective as swimming. Then it would all be easy to judge.
We don’t need political correctness in olympic selections! You may rightly regret that youngsters from the inner cities don’t have access to pools and sports programs as their better off counterparts and thus have little prospect to make the olympics eventually, but this is a matter to be dealt with government authorities, local, state and federal. The great strength of our olympic swimming selection system is that it is objective and transparent: the fastest ones make it.
Obviously the fastest should go. Questioning the diversity of the team is not an indictment of the Olympic Trials process, but rather questioning how we can promote diversity from the age group stage and all the way into the elite levels. So hopefully in the future we don’t have as white a team. That’s a valid concern we should keep talking about.
Agreed. The selection criteria should remain as is, so the fastest 2 in each event get to compete at the Olympics, regardless of race. But I think there are still structural issues in USA Swimming that need to be addressed. Whatever efforts USA Swimming is making to diversify the membership pool clearly needs a lot more progress.
As of the 2010 Census, the American population was 64% non-Hispanic white. For a national Olympic team to be more than 95% white is pretty remarkable in this day and age.
What’s so remarkable about genetic propensity?
Are you kidding us? There is no bias. Can’t be. Fastest swimmers go. Period. Go troll somewhere else.
Great picture between Ervin and Dressel