Picks: Kromos Health Means Dutch Repeat in 400 Free Relay

For our relay previewss, we’ll take each country one-by-one, take a stab at the swimmers entered and a possible order, and then combine times to get an aggregate flat-start time.

For the women’s 400 free relay, the Dutch are the overwhelming pick in our pick ’em contest, but surprisingly the Germans are getting a lot of upset backing both for gold and silver.

1. Netherlands Actual: 3:33.96 Aggregate: 3:34.73

Ranomi Kromidjojo (52.75)
Marleen Veldhuis (53.95)
Inge Dekker (54.43)
Femke Heemskerk (53.60)

Breakdown: A healthy Kromowidjojo is the difference-maker here. She’s already flat-started better than she was on this relay in 2011. Dekker has been better this year, Veldhuis has been better this year; even their prelims/alternate swimmer Hinkelein Schreduer has been better. As good as Missy was to go under 53 seconds on this relay last year, Heemskerk proved to be an amazing relay swimmer, bettering Franklin by half-a-second. This relay has two swimmers who are more-than-good-enough to go 52.5’s. That’s hard to beat. On paper, this relay isn’t that close. I don’t see the reality getting much better for the Americans. The Dutch should expect to repeat as gold medalists with the same foursome as they had in Beijing.

2. USA Actual: 3:34.47 Aggregate: 3:35.58

Natalie Coughlin/Dana Vollmer (54.05)
Jessica Hardy (53.96)
Allison Schmitt (53.94)
Missy Franklin (53.63)

Breakdown: This American relay is in such an odd state, because their 2011 anchor Dana Vollmer didn’t finish in the top 6 at Trials, and one of the all-time heroes of the national team Natalie Coughlin made the team in only this event (and not with a top-4 finish). They both had the same best-time in 2011, and I can only see one of them swimming in finals. This race comes on day 1 of the meet, so the coaches have likely already come to a decision about who gets it based on a pre-meet time trial. Things to consider Both are Teri McKeever (head coach) swimmers; Vollmer is the only one with another event that day (prelims and semi’s of 100 fly); Natalie Coughlin has nothing else to swim; and Coughlin had the fastest leadoff leg at World’s. If Vollmer doesn’t unnecessarily burn through three record-breaking swims in the fly, I think she has better upside; but still have a hard time seeing the coaching staff not selecting Coughlin.

Allison Schmitt is an ace in the Americans’ hole. She’s gone a 53 this year untapered, and her speed is clearly there. The counteracting force is Ranomi Kromoiwdjojo being healthy. If the Americans are going to pull an upset, they need Hardy to roll into a 53-mid, and Schmitt a 53-low.

3. Australia Actual: 3:36.75

Yolane Kukla (54.02)
Melanie Schlanger (53.74)
Cate Campbell (53.84)
Alicia Coutts (53.80)

Breakdown: This Australian relay badly underperformed at the World Championships. The result was a four-swimmer turnover in the prelims and finals relays combined, with only Alicia Coutts surviving from the finals group. Melanie Schlanger meeting her potential is huge for this relay after a few years in hiding; the same is true for Cate Campbell after a few years of injury. Who will fill the 4th spot will be up for debate; Kukla didn’t swim well at all in prelims at Worlds last year, but if used on a leadoff she brings big value with an extremely powerful start.

4. Sweden Actual: 3:38.40 Aggregate: 3:37.58

Therese Alshammar (54.45)
Michelle Coleman (54.97)
Ida Marko-Varga (55.11)
Sarah Sjostrom (53.05)

Breakdown: This Swedish relay, on the back of improvements by Sarah Sjostrom, shocked many people for silver at the European Championships. There has been so much focus on their medley relay, that many people missed the development of Michelle Coleman, who is the same age as Sjostrom but a much later developer. She split a 54.0 at Euro’s. The only gap on that relay was Ida Marko-Varga leading off in a 55.66, but part of that is because Alshammar wasn’t at the meet. Marko-Varga is much better than that split too, so the Swede’s even have the luxury of making a one-swimmers swap after prelims. If they can go a 3:38.40 without Alshammer, or a rested Sjostrom, that means a 3:36 is very possible at the Olympics. Their relay starts weren’t even that great when they swam the 3:38.40, so that’s a tenth or two more they could make up.

5. Germany Actual: 3:36.05 Aggregate: 3:37.74

Britta Steffen (53.65)
Silke Lippok (54.74)
Lisa Vitting (54.94)
Daniela Schreiber (54.41)

Breakdown: Though their aggregate doesn’t necessarily reflect it, the Germans have been across-the-board better on their flat-starts in 2012 than they were in 2011. This is definitely a relay that far outswam their individual talents at Worlds last year to score a bronze medal. I don’t know if they can hit that lightning twice, but their leadoff and leader Britta Steffen has been much, much better. If she can hold true to that 53-mid leading off this relay, that would be Germany’s best chance to repeat on the medal stand.

6. Great Britain Actual: 3:39.74 Aggregate: 3:37.24

Fran Halsall (53.57)
Amy Smith (54.01)
Rebecca Turner (54.71)
Jessica Lloyd (54.95)

Breakdown: Like many of the British women’s relays, this 400 free has the numbers to surprise a lot of people at their home Olympics. Fran Halsall is known, and one of the world’s top sprinters. Amy Smith’s reputation is growing, which gives the Brits the second-best one-two punch behind the Dutch in this meet (and the fastest combined times this year). But in 2011, even with Amy Smith and Fran Halsall on the prelims group, the Brits didn’t final. This is a whole different squad, though. Smith has been consistently blowing-out 54’s this year, after leading off this relay with just a 54.98 in 2011. Rebecca Turner will see her 20th birthday during this meet, and 17-year old Jessica Lloyd has all-but supplanted Caitlin McClatchey, who had a tough prelims swim. The Brits could still lean on the veteran McClatchey, though, for a prelims swim – a 54-anything would be huge.

7. China Actual: 3:36.74 Aggregate: 3:38.54

Shija Wang (54.61)
Haibin Wang (55.18)
Yuhan Qiu (55.04)
Yi Tang (53.71)

Breakdown: After the top four at World’s, there’s was a huge dropoff in quality on this 400 free relay. The Chinese are a great example of that. They’ve got one star in Yi Tang, but after that have just a bunch of average freestylers. Things got worse for them after last year’s Li Zhesi, who was young enough to become the difference-maker to get them a medal, was booted from the squad after a failed doping test. The country’s number-two freestyler individually this year is Yuhan Qiu, who in true Chinese fashion just turned 14 a week ago. The Chinese won’t shy away from using her even in a high-pressure situation. What we have in this relay is a relay that’s not very good, but way outperformed to take 4th last year. Unless one of these young swimmers does something crazy, expect this relay to plummet.

8. Denmark Actual: 3:39.74 Aggregate: 3:40.59

Pernille Blume (54.06)
Mie Nielsen (55.10)
Jeanette Ottesen (53.45)
Lotte Friis (57.98)

Breakdown: This relay has kind of a “small college” feel to it. Denmark has three great sprinters, but a lack of depth means that they have to fill out the lineup with Lotte Friis: the world’s best 1500 freestyler. That’s not something often seen in Olympic finals. But Friis swam admirably last year to help this team at least make the final. Pernille Blume has improved since then, as has Mie Nielsen – both teenagers. Ottesen is the defending 100 free World Champion (though it is unlikely she’ll repeat that title). This relay’s best chance is that there is no longer a 400 free on day 1 like there was at World’s. That means Friis can certainly be much better than a 57.98. Last year, this squad finished 8th with Friis going a 56.12. She could be a 55-mid this year.