Barry Revin contributed to this story.
At last week’s Women’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships, we didn’t see many best times, and very few swimmers beat seed times.
In this year of unknowns and uncertainty, we can’t say for sure if the men will react to the double-taper-after-training-interruptions the same way as the women will. But this year’s team scoring battles weren’t necessarily as much about whether swimmers could beat their seed, but how close they could get to their seed. That’s a whole different mentality, a different approach, and a different prelims-finals effort calculation.
In many regards, we’ve seen that it’s possible with all of that to move up. Even for some of the teams that faced the tightest restrictions and lockdowns still excelled – with Exhibits A and B being Maggie MacNeil and Olivia Carter from Michigan, who missed 2 weeks of training just before Big Tens and still managed to win NCAA titles.
But we also know that everyone is different, and not every coach will be adept at guiding their athletes through these challenges, and not every athlete will be as equipped with the mental and emotional skills and tools to perform as well as those two did.
That’s the variability that makes this meet fun.
In that vein, below are two versions of the 2021 Men’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships “scorecards,” or “cheatsheets” if you will.
They show, based only on swimming scoring, how many points each team is expected to score. Diving will impact this. So will tapers (or lack thereof).
Consider this scoring to be a baseline more than it will be predictive. If your team moves up, you know they’re doing well. If your time moves down, they’ll have to find a way to rally (see: the NC State women).
Data and charts below.
Key Inflection Points
- In the event-by-event, you’ll see a moment where Cal will go from trailing Texas to leading, a lead that, based on swimming, they wouldn’t give up. In real life, we know that Texas has lots of diving points due, and Cal doesn’t have very many. Cal needs this inflection to happen about as pictured to have a chance. That event is specifically the 200 back, where Cal has 3 of the top 4 seeds. That makes Texas’ Austin Katz, seeded just 15th but on paper a national title contender, a crucial swim there for the Longhorns.
- In the anticipated battle for 3rd place between Florida and Georgia, after the Bulldog duo of Camden Murphy and Luca Urlando, Florida will begin to pull away with swims by Kieran Smith and others. Georgia needs to not let Florida get too far gone in the middle of day 3, giving themselves a chance to catch up on toward the end of day 4.
Scoring By Day
Scoring By Event