As we’ve already covered, Great Britain’s James Guy has been on point the last three days at the Japan Open in Tokyo. In particular his butterfly, which has seen some big drops this season. On day 1, he equalled his 200m best time in 1:55.91. Then, after an impressive 3:46.6 400 free on day 2, he threw down a PB of 51.50 in the 100 fly on the 3rd and final day.
With the British team competing in Tokyo coming off a training camp, the strong swims came as a bit of a surprise to Guy.
Though it’s hard to imagine fly ever being anything more than a secondary stroke for Guy, especially considering he’s the reigning 200 free world champ, his vast improvements this year are a great sign for Great Britain’s medley relay.
The Brits have a very sizeable advantage over the rest of the world on the breaststroke leg with generational talent Adam Peaty, so if the other three legs can see some slight improvements from last summer they could dethrone the almighty Americans.
The Americans have never lost the medley relay in Olympic competition, but Great Britain gave them a good run last year. They led at the halfway mark after a devastating 56.59 split from Peaty, and were within four tenths of the U.S. going into the final leg, but ultimately finished 1.3 behind them after a classic anchor leg from American veteran Nathan Adrian.
Last year at the British Championships Guy went 52.15 in the 100 fly, and then got down to 51.78 at the Olympics. At the British Championships this year he went 51.52, and just bettered that coming off training camp, so it’s fair to assume he’ll be his best yet in Budapest. Of course this is far from a certainty, but it does beg the question, what will the impact be in the men’s medley relay?
Guy’s improvement isn’t the only change from last year on the fly leg either, as America’s go-to guy on the third leg Michael Phelps is now retired. There are a few candidates to take over for Phelps on the US team, but the most likely is Tom Shields, who was on the relay in 2015 when Phelps was suspended and actually beat Phelps at the 2014 US Nationals.
To try and keep things as cut and dry as possible, we’ll analyze the two teams using their best flat-start swim from either 2016 or 2017 (strictly 2017 wouldn’t be fair as the U.S. have yet to have their Trials).
|
USA |
Great Britain |
| Ryan Murphy (51.85) | Chris Walker-Hebborn (53.54) |
| Cody Miller (58.87) | Adam Peaty (57.13) |
| Tom Shields (51.20) | James Guy (51.50) |
| Nathan Adrian (47.72) | Duncan Scott (47.90) |
| 3:29.64 | 3:30.07 |
Of course, there are plenty of variables that we can’t accurately take into account. It’s not uncommon for Adrian to drop a sub-47 relay anchor. It’s impossible to say if and how much Guy and Duncan Scott will improve come Worlds. Will Chris Walker-Hebborn be within two seconds of Ryan Murphy? He was only 54.24 at British Trials.
And of course, U.S. Trials haven’t even happened so we’ll have a better idea of where the swimmers are this year (and who will be swimming, Cody Miller and Shields aren’t sure things).
With so many different possibilities in this race were not even gonna approach the subject of predictions, at least until we see what happens in Indianapolis, but it’s safe to say the race will be fun and probably closer than it was in Rio.
I don’t know when it will happen, but I think Dressel will someday flat start a sub-51 100Fly.
China will be ahead at 300m. They have a billion people and they gotta have one that can go sub 48
I believe the best US lineup has Dressel doing fly this summer with the others retaining normal spots that might be whats necessary to win
Really? Dressel’s fly in long course is not proven. Plus didn’t he say the fly is just a fun event for him. So he may not focus his training on lc fly. Currently could only see Shields or Conger filling up this spot bearing that no one else steps up and they perform like how they should or better.
perhaps but Conger and Dressel both went best times and Dressel was almost a full second faster in a 100 no insignificant amount. I think if he knew the US was counting on him it’d be more then a “fun” event because I think top end for a 100 fly he’s got the most potential. The only person in the world I don’t think he could beat in the LC 100 fly at their best is Schooling
Of course without MP it’s harder for USA. No scoop here. Outside of his monster talent his only presence galvanized his teammates and feared rivals.
It will be a very close race in Budapest between USA, China and GB.
US “weaknesses” on breast and fly slightly open the door. Shields looks good right now but he’s not MP. And it’s dangerous to count too much on Miller on breaststroke. 😆 Will Murphy be as strong as last year? China can win if Zetao swims and swims at his best. And for GB its gold medal chances are entirely on Walker-Hebborn’s shoulders. With Peaty, Guy and Scott they have 3 strong legs for the future. If they can find… Read more »
I think Phelps passing makes little difference. Peaty and Guy don’t fear an aged legend. He would make little difference to the USA 4×100 IM or 4x200free. Even if he was still swimming he’d be a year older and GB are all a year older and tuning into men. Maybe in the USA (as shown at there weak fly trials- – and they were he was there for the taking on the 200 53/61?! And the 100 well another 51.0 same time he went in 2003) he was still feared but the rest of world wouldn’t fear him now. Shields, conger or dressel will swim an impressive leg of 50 point but so will Guy. The USA breastroke leg firstly… Read more »
It’s going to be a sick race.
Get back to training James – we need you!
CWH is a big question for GBR!!
If he goes back to 53 low-52 high, the Americans will not win although Adrian goes 46 mid
If not, everything will happen!!!
If US team has someone like Schooling who has a 50.39 flat start and Adrian goes a 46.6, They will knockout GBR and destroy China.
IF GBR has Schooling, they will knockout US too.
I don’t see it. Britain have 2 very good legs, 1 midblowingly good leg and 1 very poor leg. Unless CWH and muster up 2014/2015 form.
If CWH can get back to 53.0 – I’ll say it, I think Britain will win. But, I don’t see it happening.
USA will prevail – But I think it’ll be close. Remember, Murphy had 2s on CWH in Rio and at 300m it was neck & neck.