How Many Gold Medals Will Caeleb Dressel Win at the 2022 World Championships?

Caeleb Dressel concerned me a little on the run-up to U.S. International Team Trials in Greensboro.  I know the season was short, but he wasn’t swimming that fast. Still, I predicted solid swims, assuming the 7-time Olympic gold medalist knew what he was doing.

My predictions ahead of U.S Trials:

  • 100 fly Prediction – 50.2 – (Dressel final results 50.20)
  • 50 free Prediction – 21.3 – (Dressel final results 21.29)
  • 100 free Prediction – 47.62 – (Dressel final results 47.79)
  • 200 free Prediction – 1:45.8 – (Dressel final results –  0, push, a no-show, breaking my heart!)
  • *50 fly? I didn’t make a prediction, but most commenters said 22.6-8.  (Dressel final results 22.84.)

At Trials I sat with the Dressel family for a few sessions. They’re fun. Mom cheers like it’s a football game.  While I was a little nervous for Caeleb, they were completely chill. It seems they knew he would deliver in Greensboro. That experience makes me a little more bullish about World Champs.

See my Caeleb Dressel 2022 World Championship Predictions:

  • 50 free – 21.09 – gold
  • 100 free – 47.11 – gold
  • 100 fly – 49.44 – for a new world record and the gold
  • 50 fly – 22.3  – gold


  • 4×100 free – gold
  • 4×100 medley – gold
  • 4×100 mixed medley – gold (for some redemption)
  • 4×100 mixed free – silver
  • 4×200 free? Nope. I’ve lost all hope for Dressel swimming this.

So, I’m saying 7 gold medals.  But who cares what I think. It’s all about what you think. Drop your comments below.

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6 months ago

I feel like making specific predictions for events never works out so I’m going more ‘holistic’.

Individual events: 50 fly, 100 fly, 50 free, 100 free. Dressel is arguably the favourite in all 4, with some having more competition than others. I predict he will win 3 out 4 events. I’m not sure which one he will lose, but basically all but the 50 free have a realistic upsetter.

Relays: 100 free and men’s medley are guaranteed. MMR and MFR are toss ups, but I don’t necessarily see USA being unbeatable in either. I predict he’ll win 1 of those 2, so probably 3 relay medals.

OK so 3 individual gold and 3 relay gold. If not for Chalmers missing… Read more »

Fred Smith
6 months ago

Americans cheering for Americans —- always optimistic. I am sure we will see some upsets.

Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
6 months ago

Speaking of which, predict the lineup for the 4 x 100 meter mixed medley relay.

Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
6 months ago

All Hungarians are GOATED with the SAUCE

6 months ago

For the 3rd most populated country in the world USA supporters put an awful lot on 1 swimmer.!

6 months ago

Screw it times predictions:

50 free 20.9x, he barely misses the world record though but I have a feeling that this event is why his stroke has changed.

100 free: 47.1x barely holding off a charging Popovici

50 fly: 22.3x

100 fly: 49.5x in a thrilling showdown between him and Milak. I can’t commit to who comes out on top

6 months ago

U guys are sleeping on Milak…be careful. I think Caleb will win between 5 and 7 golds. I don’t see them winning the 4MixedMedley.
Also, I think a Milak upset is possible at this point. Don’t forget that worlds are in Hungary (Milaks home). I m a Caleb fan but I also wouldn’t mind a Milak upset in the 100B because it could trigger Dressel like Malchow did to Phelps in 2002, to achieve even greater things.
Be careful with Popovic in the 100Fr

Reply to  GrameziPT
6 months ago

Milak doesn’t look good this year. The training switch was a mistake. He’s washed up.

Reply to  GrameziPT
6 months ago

With no Peaty, the only team that could give the US a run is China if Yan Zibei is on form. Even they don’t match up that well with Regan being +5 on Xu Jiayu, and Yang Zufei being +6 on Dressel

Reply to  oxyswim
6 months ago


You are going to ask Regan Smith to swim the semifinals of the women’s 50 meter backstroke, the semifinals of the women’s 200 meter butterfly, and the final of the 4 x 100 meter mixed medley relay in the same evening session?

Reply to  Smith-King-Huske-Curzan
6 months ago

I think the mixed relays aren’t as valuable so I would very much support giving White an extra shot at a medal to lighten the load on Smith and Curzan. I don’t think the coaches view the mixed relays the same way I do though.

If it’s purely about assembling the fastest relay possible in that final I do think Smith-Fink-Dressel-Huske is the way to go. Even on the tail end of a triple. She did them all season in college, I don’t think the 50 backstroke takes much out of her, and it took 2:09.0 to make the Olympic final which Regan could do on cruise control.

Last edited 6 months ago by oxyswim
Reply to  oxyswim
6 months ago

I prefer four fresh swimmers for the 4 x 100 meter mixed medley relay:



Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
6 months ago

He just swam a 1.53 in Barcelona. The guy is gonna be on, but I know Dressel is gonna be on too. I hope they push each other and we are able to witness another WR

Reply to  GrameziPT
6 months ago

Milak seemed more speedy in season last year.

Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
6 months ago

Has Milak been under 50.0 in the 100 fly either before of after the swims at Tokyo in 2021? I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. Would have to be a very “off” Dressel to go over 50.0 at a major world meet. [Edited because I had left out the word “think,” LOL.]

Last edited 6 months ago by Tony
Reply to  Tony
6 months ago

Dressel hasn’t been under 50 since Tokyo so why would Milak have been?

6 months ago

Am only predicting results, not times or putative WRs

4 individual golds (50/100free; 50/100fly)

Barring a break or missing the bus to the pool; USA wins 4X100 & 4XMED. Hard to debate that 6 golds is fairly “bankable”.

MFR will hinge on whether AUS actually take this one seriously (ie employ Chalmers/MOC) or not as, even minus McKeon/C1, AUS still shades USA on women’s side. If they “pass” on this one then here’s a 7th gold

On paper, USA really should win this one 9.5 times out of 10 but, for whatever reasons, they haven’t managed to get the line-up right over the past 4 years. GBR & AUS do look weaker than Tokyo which should help. Hardest to predict.… Read more »

Reply to  commonwombat
6 months ago

The question is whether Dressel will swim mixed medley.
US could go with WMMW or MMWW. Any other choices will be dumb as hell.
Regan Smith will have women’s 200 fly semi right before the relay, so I’m leaning towards MMWW, which means Dressel won’t swim.

Reply to  olivy
6 months ago

Agree that MMR is a perpetual condundrum for USA and, to a somewhat lesser degree, AUS with regards to the “do we/don’t we” re utilisation of peak swimmers. Hence this is the trickiest call for me and why I currently lean 7 rather than 8.

Reply to  olivy
6 months ago

Dressel really is a difference maker but the 200 fly really ruins it.

52.20 58.37 56.28 53.58 = 3:40.43 Hunter Fink Huske, Curzan
58.39 58.37 49.50 53.35 = 3:39.61 Curzan Fink Dressel Huske
57.76 58.37 49.50 53.35 = 3:38.98 Smith Fink Dressel Huske

All trials times except Dressel.

Armstrong 100 back gold in Fukuoka
Reply to  olivy
6 months ago

If there is a 200 fly, it surely also affects China a lot right?

6 months ago

Dang no free wr!

Bobo Gigi
6 months ago

8 golds at worlds 2022 and 8 golds at worlds 2023.
16 golds in almost one year….
Long live mixed relays…. 🙄

Last edited 6 months ago by Bobo Gigi
Swimswam follower
Reply to  Bobo Gigi
6 months ago

Hi Bobo Gigi, Always love your honest assessments.
You now have tge French version of Michael Phelps in Marchand. Good kid, happy for you and France.

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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