Breeja Larson Seizes Best Olympic Trials Moment to Date

  133 Braden Keith | June 27th, 2012 | News

Wednesday was the best day of the Olympic Trials so far, and it may remain that way through the end.

Day 3 in Omaha at the 2012 U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials had 12 roster spots to award – doubling the first two days combined. After the youth was the big story on day 2, especially National Age Group Records by Katie Ledecky, Kevin Cordes, and Ryan Murphy, day three will continue that streak but in a bit of a different vein.

That’s because to this point, each of the 6 event-final winners thus far are returning Olympians. We’ve seen some new blood in swimmers like Claire Donahue, but none that have been able to break through and win.

That streak was broken on Wednesday, with two of the four winners being brand-new Olympians for the US (though even at that, their experience is vastly different).

On top of that, we’ll see a Lochte-Phelps final in a race where they were very well-matched.

Women’s 200 Free Semifinal

In the first women’s 200 free semi-final, there was an expectation that Dana Vollmer, swimming out of lane 4, would have a good swim and push the pace. That didn’t really happen as hoped. She didn’t look bad, but in a great closing 30 meters, she got locked in a battle between Shannon Vreeland and Megan Romano, teammates from Georgia. Vollmer didn’t have the energy (or the desire?) to fight them off at the end.

Vreeland ended up winning the heat, with a 2nd seeded overall time of 1:57.78. Vollmer was just behind in 1:57.81, and Romano was 3rd in 1:57.81. They were the 2-3-4 seeds overall.

But in the 2nd heat, Allison Schmitt had no trouble pushing an early pace. She dominated the second heat with a 1:55.59 to take the top overall speed. There’s a chance she went out too fast, but then again I think that’s where she needed to be if she wants to keep up with the best of the world.

Missy Franklin was 2nd in that heat, but didn’t get bated into showing too much. We’d find out later after her American Record in the 100 back, that she played this like few veterans in the world could, at only 17. She cruised in to a 5th seed in 1:58.04, saving enough energy for the later race.

Lauren Perdue, just a few months off of back surgery, continued to amaze by placing 7th in 1:58.28. The last finalist, almost unnoticed, was Chelsea Chenault in 1:58.64. That locked out 15-year old phenom Katie Ledecky from the final by just .02. With that kind of speed, Ledecky is dangerous.

Men’s 200 Free Final

Ryan Lochte did what Ryan Lochte has been doing throughout this meet. He controlled the race, and had a huge wall coming into the final 50.

But this time, Michael Phelps decided that the race wasn’t decided based on who is winning at 165 meters when those first strokes are taken coming from the last wall. It’s not even decided with two meters to go. It’s decided only once: at the 200 meter mark. Lochte’s head was ahead of Phelps’ as they disappeared behind the blocks into the closing inches of this 200 free, but Phelps still lit up the scoreboard first, as he’s so good at doing.

Phelps got his finger-tips to the wall in 1:45.70, with Lochte touching 2nd in 1:45.75. The two tied with identical 26.59’s on the last 50.

Still, as exciting as the race was, the times will come off as a bit disappointing. Phelps was actually faster at the Columbus Grand Prix by .01 seconds. That’s usually his mid-season rest-meet, but that shows us where he’s at in his training – more of a “rest” mode than a big taper. Lochte is likely in the same boat. France’s Yannick Agnel has been faster than those two times three-times already this season.

Ricky Berens, meanwhile, had a dreadful third 50 – almost the slowest of the entire final. But after that last turn, he showed that the East Coast isn’t the only place that can put up killer third 50. Representing the West Coast, he blew by three competitors to land himself on the medal stand in 1:46.56.

And nabbing his second guaranteed spot in the meet, Conor Dwyer was 4th in 1:46.64. That put two Florida Gators at least into this 800 free relay.

Swimmers who are also likely to swim at least preliminary heats are Matt McLean, doing a great job to make his first Olympic Team, in 1:46.78; and Charlie Houchin in 1:46.88. They were both really shooting for spots in that 400 free, but I think both far outdid most expectations and got their Olympic rings.

Davis Tarwater was 7th in 1:47.02, just missing his first Olympic Team by one spot – a situation he’s unfortunately familiar with after 2008, where he was 3rd in the 200 fly. Michael Klueh rounded out this A-final, finishing 8th in 1:48.29.

Women’s 100 Back Final

Natalie Coughlin very nearly did what nobody was expecting her to do. She did everything she could. She took out this 100 back like she normally does – hard – but even this was unusual for her. She opened the race in 28.50. She held it together fairly well, but ultimately came up just short in 1:00.06 (the only time she was out faster than that  was the old U.S. Open Record of 58.97).

That’s a bit of foreshadowing with the “old” record. That’s because Missy Franklin, in 4th place at the turn, roared-home like a freight-train to take the win in an American Record, U.S. Open Record, 17-18 National Age Group Record, and an overall incredible swim in 58.85.

That’s puts her 4th on the all-time list, and is the fastest ever swum in a textile suit (bettering Jing Zhao’s 58.94 from 2010).

What can’t be overlooked is that this was done about half-an-hour after her 200 freestyle.

Coughlin will now be off of the Olympic Team in an event where she was the two-time defending gold medalist. Yes, she could make it in the 100 free for a relay; yes we should expect her to swim the 50 free at the end of the session as well, but even if she made the team in one of those two events, it just wouldn’t feel the same.

Rachel Bootsma couldn’t match her early-round speed, but was 2nd in 59.49. That means the average age of the two American swimmers in this event at Trials will be 17.5. That’s probably close to a record.

Olivia Smoliga was 4th in 1:00.46.

Men’s 100 Back Final

Matt Grevers is the next in a long-line of American backstrokers – after winning four-straight Olympic gold medals, Aaron Peirsol’s retirement left a bit of a vacuum. But Grevers, despite a tough two-year run, is the defending silver medalist from Beijing. But his swim tonight is even faster than Peirsol ever was, in textile at least.

Grevers won the race in 52.08, which is the best time ever done in textile and the second-fastest in history, period, after Peirsol’s World Record (.14 faster).

This race was a no-doubter, as Grevers led the whole way. With his 6’9 frame, nobody was going to out-touch him here. It’s a story of perseverance.

The battle for 2nd mirrored many that Nick Thoman and David Plummer have had in the last two years, swimming neck-and-neck down the pool. Neither started particularly hard, but they finished amazingly. Thoman came-from-behind to swim a 52.86 to make the Olympic Team, and Plummer was 3rd in 52.98.

Ben Hesen, a former NCAA Champion in this race, ended up 4th in 53.03. That’s a lifetime best for him by three-tenths.

Those four now leave the Americans sitting 1-3-5-6 in the World Rankings this year.

No new Records for Ryan Murphy in this final with a 53.92 for 6th overall; that will leave the 15-16 National Age Group Record at 53.76.

Women’s 100 Breast Final

Breeja Larson, in the women’s 100 breaststroke, gave us the best Olympic Trials moment to date in Omaha.

First, a backstory for those who don’t follow college swimming closely: This is Breeja Larson’s first long course taper. You read that right: she has never tapered in long course before.

She didn’t begin swimming seriously until her junior year of high school. Texas A&M’s Steve Bultman had the eye to grab her out of Arizona. By the end of her freshman year in college, she was a 58.5. By the end of her sophomore year in college, she was the fastest 100 yard breaststroker in yards history in 57.71.

Last summer, the anticipation was huge, but some serious illness issues meant that her summer was basically ruined.

This summer, she was on the Olympic Team, with a 1:05.92 to win. After that, she threw all Olympic Trials decorum to the wind, and sprinted over to her coach and teammates in the stands and hugged anybody in sight. As I sit here and write this recap, half-an-hour after the last race and an hour after her swim, she’s still signing autographs. Simply an amazing time, from a swimmer who hasn’t been around long enough to learn anything other than to soak in every ounce of the moment.

Now for the nuts and bolts. She has a huge pullout, derived from her pre-swimming activities. In addition to swimming (she only started her high school team as a sophomore) she also lettered in softball and track & field. She’s very tall, and she’s powerful.

That’s the highest-finish ever by a Texas A&M swimmer at the Olympic Trials (behind Cammile Adams’ 400 IM 3rd-place finish earlier in this meet), and the second-straight quadrennial that they’ve put a swimmer on the Olympic Team.

Meanwhile, Rebecca Soni, the sure-fire favorite in this race, had a bad finish and took 2nd in 1:05.99. That’s not even her best time this year, meaning that Larson ranks 2nd in the world and Soni is still probably the Olympic favorite.

Jessica Hardy was the tough-luck third-place swimmer, with a 1:06.53 for 3rd. That is four-tenths slower than she was at the Indy Grand Prix, and more disappointment. She should still make the team in the 100 free, and probably the 50, but after saying she had given up on this race at one point, I think it really hurts her to not make the team.

Those three are the three-fastest in the world this year.

Just about everyone in the 4-8 spots had a great race in one round or another of this 100 breaststroke, but Ellyn Baumgardner had the best in finals with a 1:07.19. That’s a full-second drop off of her best time coming into this meet. Annie Chandler was 5th in 1:07.28, which was by far her best chance at making the team. She’s already said that she’s retiring after this year, and barring a big surprise in the 50 free or 200 breaststroke, she’s probably ending her career here in Omaha.

Men’s  200 Fly Semifinal

Bobby Bollier slow-paced this men’s 200 fly early, but he continued winning long course races, with a 1:56.06. That’s his best time since 2009. Davis Tarwater didn’t let the disappointment in the 200 free earlier in the session, came back and took 2nd here in 1:56.10. I don’t think that this is the race that people expected him to make the team in 1:56.10.

The 2nd heat was by-far the fastest, and Phelps was 3rd in the heat, and overall, in 1:56.42. Tyler Clary was 4th in 1:56.56. This tight-seeded final will be one of the best of the meet (and most unpredictable).

Tom Shields just missed this final, with a 1:58.75 for 9th.

Women’s 200 IM Semifinal

Sometimes, coach knows best. Paul Yetter, head coach of T2 Aquatics swimmer Liz Pelton, decided to scratch his 18-year old protege from the 100 back final where she was the 4th seed. Instead, he decided she should focus on the 200 IM that was not far after – a move that he was criticized for.

I don’t think she was getting to a 59-low in the 100 back, but she did not fail to impress in the 200 IM and made Yetter look like a genius, as she took the top seed in the semi’s in 2:11.37, winning the first heat and taking the 2nd-seed overall.

It’s going to be very obvious tomorrow when she’s swimming next to Cal’s Caitlin Leverenz (top seed – 2:10.51) that her breaststroke is where she needs the most work, but Pelton’s closing freestyle leg was outstanding (30.91 – only swimmer better than 31).

Elizabeth Beisel (2:12.27) and Ariana Kukors (2:12.32) are both in the same boat as the 3 and 4 seeds, respectively. They need to get out way better on the front-half to make the team in this event.

Maya DiRadoJana MangimelliJasmine Tosky, and Celina Li topped off this final, with Tosky (even on a second swim of the session) looking as good as she has this week.

Whitney Burnett just missed in 2:14.17, and she told Garrett McCaffrey after the race that this was the last time she’d ever swim the 200 IM.

Full session results available here.

 

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133 Comments on "Breeja Larson Seizes Best Olympic Trials Moment to Date"


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john26
4 years 2 months ago

1:45.7?!? Phelps was faster a month ago.. can’t imagine them being happy with that. I thought the rest of the field were going 145s….

Yannick Agnel probably goes into the Olympics as the favorite.

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

No probably about it. Those times won’t even finish in the top 5 at the olympics.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Look at Lochte’s and Phelps’s splits. Almost the exact same throughout. They were dogging it. If you think they really extended themselves I have quite a few bridges you might be interested in purchasing!

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

As I kept repeating (it’s all on record in the recent threads),
No way Phelps and Lochte break 1:44, at least not in Omaha, after I saw their 400 IM swims.
And I also offered doubts that both of them will do it (sub 1:44) in London.

But there are so many people in this site who kept throwing out some really crazy times, for example sub 1:43 for both Lochte and Phelps in Omaha.

Also, I was involved in the argument here when I said no way Berens would swim under 1:45 when some people said he would swim 1:44, and I got flak from that.

I know there’s nothing like olympics to bring out general population into discussions, but c’mon.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Phelps was clearly nowhere near 4:07 shape last year for the 400IM yet he managed a 1:44 in Shanghai. Lochte clearly held off in that 400IM, especially down the stretch, yet was still faster than last year. If they’re not both below 1:44 in London I will be truly shocked. This race indicates nothing really, it’s about the same amount of effort they’ll put into their semifinal heats in London.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

In London, either may go under 1:44

but there were so many others here (not sure if that includes you) who said they were going to swim sub 1:44 or even sub 1:43 in Omaha.

Funny how some people changed and modified what they had said after the fact.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

I’ve made no time predictions, until the post above yours. I guess you could say that was my first this year, although I did say Murphy should be able to go 1:55 in the 200 back earlier. I prefer not to make time predictions.

john26
4 years 2 months ago

I wasn’t expecting a sub144. Coming into this meet, I felt that it was possible for both me to be around or slightly faster than Agnel in March.

After seeing the 400IM (and Phelps 2.5s slower than 08), I adjusted expectation to be about the same as he swam last year. However even with this, the times swum today have to be a large disappointment.

Swimnews reported that Phelps is swimming more on rest than a taper, which means hes likely to put up swims similar to his fast Grand Prix swims. he’s already pulled out of the 100free, which if you consider this swim, it would be difficult to expect faster than 48.3.

Now if this is the case, we could see 405s, if not 404s from both Lochte and Phelps in London, which is faster than I initially imagined.

Still, a rest instead of a taper is risky business for Phelps and Bowman (and Lochte) since 145.7, i dont think, is outside of range of some of the other guys in the field.

last comment, @Keith, I highly highly doubt they were holding back. The reason being that this is the dress rehearsal for an even tougher schedule in a month, they need to test the body to see how it will handle the effort so it would be a huge disservice to hold back anything, especially with so little difference in the final result.

Additionally, dogging would suggest they held back the first 150, and blew by the field the last 50 (ie. what they did in semis with 25.9s). This was not the case as 26.5 is a pretty typical final 50 for these two swimmers.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

John26,

I didn’t mean it was you who predicted sub 1:44 for both guys.
I know very well that you always make great prediction on great data and statistics.

They will both be faster in london because they will be more fresh with taper, but yes, I agree with you if Phelps was only rested (and not tapered) that is one hell of a risk that he and Bowman was taking.

I also agree with you that Phelps and Lochte were not dogging. They gave it all they had.

Also do not forget the effect of recovery.
At their age, recovery is not as quick as when they were both 19/23.

Chris
4 years 2 months ago

It’s also possible they have been training with more focus on the 400 im than the 200 free. After all, Phelps just has to beat Lochte to get gold, and vice-versa, whereas in the 200 free it’s much more off a toss-up. In Phelps case, after the 1:45 in-season, he probably figured he had enough to give gold a good shot in London. Also, if he had to choose between gold in the 400 im and the 200 free, I think he’d choose the former so he can be the first to three-peat.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Well according to post race statements that are coming out that’s exactly what they did, held back the first part of the race.

john26
4 years 2 months ago

http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/swimming/phelps-beats-lochte-in-200m-free-at-trials.html

Take a look on Phelps’ face starting at 2:20 and then his look at Lochte.
I had the same look on my face after seeing the time.

I almost felt like it said “wtf? really?” which is most first reaction, and why I was initially kind of worried. Also, they look very tired. I’m not saying they gave it 100% as if the Gold was on the line, but they certainly were not simply “going for placing”

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Keith, if Phelps was really “coasting” and “dogging” and “gamesmanships” as you claimed,
then why did he and Bowman scratch the 100 free tomorrow?

It is obvious that Bowman and Phelps saw that he needs the rest.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

Keith.. according to Craig Lord as he quoted the guys words.. they were not pleased with the times. And Bowman is worried if Phelps and Locthe keep on their cat and dog fight… Agnel Bieldermann Park and others will not care for their personal rivalry and just cruise for locking them out of podium

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Here were quotes from that Craig Lord article on SN Rafael, Bowman said, “Ryan and Michael are so focussed on racing each other they do stuff like not take it out fast enough … in the process they forget to swim fast.” Phelps said, “When we’re next to each other we play cat and mouse, we don’t jump after it.” and “Lochte turned to Phelps on the podium and noted how slow the time was. “he told me ‘I guess we’re going to have to take it out faster’.

It sounds to me like they swam the first 3/4 of the race pacing each other for position, one staying with the other, rather swimming their own race plan to swim the fastest time possible. The unlikely symmetry of the split times seems to support this.

TX Swimmer
4 years 2 months ago

Locthe and Phelps are not fully tapered and they were both coasting. But can’t say the same about the other 6.
Matt Grevers swim was Magnussen like! Unbelievable stuff and it looked easy. I wonder how well he will do in the 200 back and 100 free.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Highly doubtful that Phelps and Lochte were coasting.(if they had really been coasting, they will both break WR in London)

Here’s an example of coasting:
Lochte in the last 5-10 meter of 400 IM.

Jean Michel
4 years 2 months ago

Probably !!!! u are right !

James
4 years 2 months ago

It seems a lot of the guys, top guys that is, are not fully rested

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

Frankin is impressive… think what she could do if she didn’t circle swim

Jean Michel
4 years 2 months ago

58.85 for Franklin ! what a back end speeeed ! owesome race ! Way to go ………

USSwimFan
4 years 2 months ago

Huge props to Missy and Bootsma. US Swimming’s future is so strong and London will be very exciting.

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

52.08!!!!! Are you freaking kidding me. That is insane.

john26
4 years 2 months ago

Definitely (and by a clear margin), the most impressive swim of the meet so far.

Luke
4 years 2 months ago

they did not even put the world record/american record on the screen but he had a great swim and almost did it

john26
4 years 2 months ago

I wish they did, I literally stared at the screen with my eyebrows raised and mouth open because that time just didn’t register in my mind.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

I agree.

The BEST SWIM of the meet.

It will take a WR (probably by Franklin in 200 back) to dethrone it as the swim of the meet.

Honestly, I am VERY surprised.
Didn’t think Grevers had it in him to swim that fast.

Amazing swim.

TX Swimmer
4 years 2 months ago

The women’s 200 back record is going. There is no doubt in my mind.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

It might go but it’s far from a sure thing. I think Missy would have been faster than 58.8 if she swam the 100 back in Shanghai last year. Then again she had a 200 free semi heat minutes before. Unless she really throws down something ominous tomorrow she should drop the 200 in London.

john26
4 years 2 months ago

I would still argue that Aaron’s 51.9 is a stronger time than Coventry’s 204.8. It would depend on how much she breaks it by.

I think a big indicator of whether she’s going to do it is how fast she’s going to be in the 200free tomorrow. I was extremely impressed by Schmitt’s almost nonchalant 1:55.5. She wasn’t even breathing hard after….

and atm I’m thinking Franklin is more likely to put up in the 154.8-154.2 range, which I no longer think will be enough to beat Schmitt

Jean Michel
4 years 2 months ago

Grevers just Schocked the world and Camille Lacourt ! second fastest time ever !!!

Kirt
4 years 2 months ago

Camille Lacourt deserves to lose. He rises to the top of the world and then wastes two years modeling and not improving while Grevers catches up to him.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Kirt,

did Lacourt really go into modelling?
LOL.
He is a pretty boy after all.

Distance Alum
4 years 2 months ago

Gee, that doesn’t remind me of a certain female US backstroker who didn’t make the team this year…

USSwimFan
4 years 2 months ago

Not only that…American Men now ranked 1, 3, 4, 5 in the world.

Jean Michel
4 years 2 months ago

3 guys under 53 ?????? bang again ! what a field ! the 400medley for Us will be terrific !!! can’t wait to see that London race .

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

The US is now locked for gold in the men 400 MR.

Can’t see any other country who will get within 1 second.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

Agreed.. but Things are looking not easy for the other 2 relays..

4×100 medley battle will be for Bronze, and will be a four country battle….. unless we see US and AUS Disqualified.. otherwise Gold and silver are a lock.

blee
4 years 2 months ago

Gutsy, gutsy swim by Natalie Coughlin!! Her time wasn’t that fast, but she was focused and she raced her heart out. Now, I feel much better about her chances in the 100 Free.

Another thought… she’s entered in the 50 Free, which is a pretty weak field. Top 2 will probably be 24-high. Anyone think Coughlin might make a run in the 50?

John Sampson
4 years 2 months ago

I too am relieved with coughlin..she will be fine in the 100 free. I see Franklin, Schmitt, vollmer, hardy, Romano and coughlin taking the team.

blee
4 years 2 months ago

Natalie has to feel good about that swim. After coming in 1.5 seconds behind Bootsma and Franklin, it’s amazing that she came within a 0.5 second of making the team. I really hope this is a turning point for her at this meet and she roars back in the 100 Free.

TX Swimmer
4 years 2 months ago

I love Natalie but she swam a full second slower than she swam 11 months ago in her best event. Her prospects for making the team are not looking good. With Missy, Schmit, Dana, Lia Neal swimming this well its not gonna be easy.

bbrswimmer
4 years 2 months ago

Lia neal is not swimming well at all, she added 3 seconds in the 200 free (2:01) and placed around 30th

Precious
4 years 2 months ago

Wow, Breeja Larson just out touched Soni, although i don’t think Soni is fully tapered. Can’t wait to see what they can do in London

blee
4 years 2 months ago

I think Soni has a lot of room for improvement. Her start was slow, her final touch had too much glide. If she just works on the details over the next few weeks, she’ll be good to go in London.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

While I think Soni can be faster, she doesn’t really taper.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Keith,

I agree. Soni’s taper does not usually provides great improvement, as she usually swims so fast in season anyway.

Andy Dixon
4 years 2 months ago

Really surprised by Michael and Ryan’s times. Maybe they were sticking to a strategy and swimming for place, not time (although it was a little too close for comfort at the end). I sure hope so, because 1:45 will not even medal in London.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

I don’t think Michael and Ryan were just “swimming for place”.
This is olympics trials, and they knew if they didn’t give all what they had, there are other really good swimmers like Berens and Dwyer who could have taken the spot.

They will be faster in London for sure, with more taper and rest. But yes, this 200 free has shown that at their age (27 yo), recovery is not as good/fast as when they were 19/23.

USSwimFan
4 years 2 months ago

American Women Breastrokers- 1, 2, 3…Dang! In terms of selection, Craig Lord’s idea of allowing the top 10 world rankings in each event rather than 2 per nation is a legitimate argument.

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

Didn’t they go to 2 per country because the US went 1-2-3 in a number of events? Or am I just making things up in my head again?

junker23
4 years 2 months ago

Yeah, I’m pretty sure that’s how it originated.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

Originated because US dominated mens field and West Germany the Women Field on 1976..

That Could help US a Lot.. but would also be a backfire in some events if they added a limit of relay only swimmers based on top 10 Ranking..

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Yes, but Track still allows 3 athletes per country provided they make the qualifying cut, and we have seen sweeps by American, Kenyans, etc in certain events.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

but not as usual as it could be on Swimming..

Last Olympic we only had 1 sweep on Athletics..

I would actually prefer seeing 4×50 free and 4×50 medley than 3 per Country,..

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

Sprint relays would just be chaos, and I don’t mean in a good way. With the convergence of world top times, I’d much rather see 3 per country.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

I would like to see the Chaos.. 4×50 free would be pretty much amazing till the last meter (at least on men´s side)

beachmouse
4 years 2 months ago

I don’t think we’ll see it in the Olympics because of the desire for national diversity and the IOC’s hard cap on athlete numbers. (We can’t even get a women’s 1500M and men’s 800M because of the cap.) But there’s no reason FINA can’t got with track & field’s outdoor World Championships policy of three per country and the defending world champion gets an automatic invitation to the meet without counting against a country’s three entries.

drdov
4 years 2 months ago

That equals Phelps best this year (just 0.01 difference)
I still say only Phelps can break 1.44

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

Things are looking good for US medley Relay, gold locked unless they got DQed… but The Frenchmen and the Chinese will put up a Big Fight (Especially the French) on 4×200

don
4 years 2 months ago

Really? We have Lochte and Phelps plus 4 guys that just went 1:46.56 – 1:46.86.
I am not worried

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

France has Agnel and three guys going 146. Not a problem if Phelps and Lochte get back down to 144. Agnel has been tough so far. 145’s high won’t cut it.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

The Chinese can probably all 3 last guys go 1:46 and Sun can probably be 1:44 1:43 (Maybe be overestimation, but nothing that guy do anymore would surprise me after the last split on his WR)

don
4 years 2 months ago

What makes you think they will swim high 45’s ?I Are you forgetting their history and just looking at one meet, trials?
I call your Agnel and raise you a Lochte and Phelps.
Then take your pick: Berens, Houchin ,Mcclean or ,Dwyer , all about the same times. It is going to be the best relay..period

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Don,

I agree.
USA starts as the prohibitive favorite in the men 4×200 as well.
apart from Agnel, the French doesn’t look as strong as last year. Same with China.

The battle for silver and bronze will be quite amazing though. I can think of 4 countries who have a chance at a minor medal:
France, China, Russia, Australia.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

China they didn´t actually had a real 200 free swim this year.. but all 3 others guy dropped about 3 4 seconds on 400 free.. and those guys are experts at hiding everything till necessary.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

I stand corrected.
I’ve just checked french trials results again, and the French in 4×200 free is actually as strong, if not stronger than last year.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

FRA will take silver (and if Agnel can get into 1:43s and the other 3 guys improve as well, they will give USA a run for their money), and CHN, RUS and AUS will battle it out for bronze.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Phelps and Lochte just swam even with each other stroke for stroke and got the race over with. Neither one put anything remotely close to max effort there.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

They put their max effort of the night.

Granted that they may not have been fully tapered, but it is b.s. that they didn’t give their all for the night, especially for someone like Phelps who really really wanted to beat Lochte, especially after the 400 IM.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

I disagree entirely. Not much more to say than that. I watched the race. Saw the splits. We just come to diametrically opposed conclusions. Nobody will remember what happens at trials. They’ll only remember what happens in London.

There’s no way that max effort at this meet yields two 4:07s in the 400IMs but only 1:45s in the 200. Does not compute. Not only that I don’t think Lochte revealed himself in the 400IM either.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Keith,

you forgot that Lochte and Phelps may not be fully tapered, or at all, and you forgot that at their age recovery does not come as quick, and hence shown in the third day.

yes, i think they will be much faster in London, with possibility of either one will go under 1:44, but if you read again several threads in the past two weeks, people here have been predicting that they would go under 1:44 or under 1:43 in Omaha.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Keith,

if Phelps was just “coasting” and “dogging”,
then why did he just scratch the 100 free prelims tomorrow?

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

No reason to swim a race he has no intention of contesting in London. Barring something unforeseen his relay place is not in jeopardy.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Keith,

Phelps swam the 100 free prelims in 2008 although he had no intention whatsoever to swim it in Beijing, and his place in the 4×100 FR was absolutely never questioned.

This shows that he/Bowman is not that confident the he would swim great 100 free this week or that they think he needs a bit of rest. If he was coasting in 200 free as you claimed, surely he would pop amazing 100 free time in the prelims (just like he did in 2008).

john26
4 years 2 months ago

@James
Yes, Lochte and Phelps probably weren’t tapered, but those times would probably battle for 6 and 7th in the Olympic final.

What Im very curious about is that Phelps was slower than he was at the Grand Prix meet. He was definitely not worth a 4:07 at that meet though. I guess we have to wait on the other events to see what this means, but based on this swim Phelps is probably looking at a 1:54.5 to 1:55.0 tomorrow.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

What I think is that Phelps and Lochte are going to throttle some of the times they do here in London and it’s not all to do with taper either. It’s gamesmanship.

James
4 years 2 months ago

I really doubt that either of them would throttle times to show gamesmanship.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

You misunderstand. They’re showing gamesmanship here, at trials, by not showing their hand. Ever come to an open doorway at the same time as someone else, and then you stop to let them go inside first, only to have them do the same? They only did enough to stay with each other, it was purely tactical.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

I doubt it was gamesmanships, especially when so much is at stake.

They didn’t really know where each other was at the finish line, they could not afford to slow down.
This is men 200 free, not 400 IM.

not fully tapered/fully rested may be a reason why they swam quite slow (also recovery at their age is not quick as when they were 19), but not because of gamesmanships.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

The only thing at stake are two tickets to London.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Keith,

That’s right, the stakes were two tickets to represent USA in individual 200 free.
With Berens and Dwyer lately swimming great, both just could not afford to do their gamesmanships.

Hell, Phelps didn’t do gamesmanships in 400 IM (in fact, it was obvious he was all out), and Lochte was only slowing down in the last 10 m when he was sure he was far ahead of anyone else.

James
4 years 2 months ago

I’m thinking both him and Lochte are just going for 1 or 2 in everything they swim.
At worlds Phelps: 24.25/26.68/27.20/26.66
At trials Phelps: 24.89/26.85/27.37/26.59

To me this just looks more like 1) not rested 2) just wants to make sure he gets qualified.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

I think Phelps can still do 1:54low tomorrow if not just under it.
200 fly is his natural event.

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

Just saw that Phelps scratched the 100 Free tomorrow.

junker23
4 years 2 months ago

Just looked at the start list and was just about to comment on this.

He’s gotta still get a spot on the relay anyway, right? If Michael Phelps wants to be on that relay, I don’t see how anyone says no.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Unless the 100 free springs a few surprising bolters, he’ll be on it. And even if there are, he’ll still be on it. 🙂

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

He´ll probably be…

I would not get surprised if no sub-48 happens also.. Is it happens it will be only Adrian with a 47.9.. People should stop thiking the trials will have Magnussian Times.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Rafael,

Well, I was involved in these huge debate a couple months ago in this site with Mel Stewart who predicted that there will be a few 47low and 47mid in Omaha.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

I think Mel is thinking 47 low is easy..

Even guys I thought could go 47 mid will have to Prove That ( Hayden and Cielo)

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

You’d need to have four guys go sub 48 in order to kick Phelps off the relay. Don’t see that happening.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

if One guy goes sub-48 it will be Nathan.. not anyone else.. hope for 2 48 flat at least.. othewise France and Russia can kick US out of podium.

Things are looking better on the ladies side.. but not on the guys..

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

anyone already in the team is ELIGIBLE to swim ANY relay, at the discretion of the coaches.

example: Stephanie Rice swam backstroke leg in AUS 4×100 MR when Seebohm was too sick to swim in Shanghai.

Keith
4 years 2 months ago

Grevers is swimming the 100 free, he might give Feigen and the others fits for the 2nd spot. I’m assuming Adrian will get the top spot. But I don’t know how much work Grevers has put into his freestyle lately.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

Grevers seems to be on form (and that’s an understatement), and he probably take the second spot behind Adrian.
They both could go sub 48.

Just an observation, it seems to me that the 100s events are relatively faster so far (women 100 fly/back, men 100 back) than 200s or longer.

bbrswimmer
4 years 2 months ago

Is it possible that natalie could still swim on the medley relay if she makes the team? For example Missy wins the 100 free by a big margin (greater than the .22 she is better than Bootsma in 100 back). Than it would make sense to have Natalie swim back in prelims to save Bootsma (depending on both of their conditions) and then runner ups in the other 100’s (or the 3rd in the 100 free if Dana is the 2nd fastest)

This would give natalie a probable 4×100 medley gold and keep the relay fresh for finals where they could set the WR
However, this is a little Coughlin bias because i’m a huge fan, but thoughts?

john26
4 years 2 months ago

there would be no point unless Bootsma really doesn’t show up.

Precious
4 years 2 months ago

But will Bootsma even need the rest? I don’t see her making it in any other event, so the only events she’ll have in London are the 100 back and the relay, and I don’t think it would be too taxing for her to swim both prelims and finals on the relay.

While I would love to see Natalie get another gold, we have yet to see what Schmitt can do in this 100 when she’s tapered. And if she keeps swimming as well as she has been, I could easily see the relay being Franklin/Soni/Volmer/Schmitt in London.

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

anything is possible if you get on the team.

Boostma (or Franklin) might be off-form for whatever reason etc etc.

The US will probably field completely different teams for both prelims and final. They did that in Beijing.

john26
4 years 2 months ago

1) With 2 men having been in the vicinity of Peirsol’s WR, it significantly amplifies the chance that record will fall
2) Having dropped over a second in the backstroke from ’11, a similar drop in the 100free (from 49.2) would put him at 48 very low and a heated contender for an individual spot.

ATM, based on swims we’ve seen so far, I suspect this is more or less what we’re going to see in the 100free:

Adrian 47.9 (I’m afraid to put faster as we’ve seen how tough 48.00 has been to break)
Feigen 48.1 (+/- 0.1 projected from his Charlotte win)
Grevers 48.3 (+/- 0.2, I feel he’s not going to drop as much as the backstroke)
Berens 48.5-48.6 (projected from his swims in Charlotte and his 200 swim today)
Weber Gale 48.3-48.8
Lezak 48.3-48.8 (we really havent seen anything noteworthy from these 2 guys so….)

Phelps is reported to be on Grand Prix schedule so I think 48.3 or 48.4 is what he WOULD be doing if he was swimming this. Lochte appears to be do similar things as 2010 Nationals, so I doubt he’d be much faster than 48.6.

Rafael
4 years 2 months ago

We don´t know how Greevers training was.. his 100 back was probably the most surprising time of all Trials..

But those times are not near enough to beat the Aussies, and are on par with French..

aswimfan
4 years 2 months ago

I don’t know why, but I am sensing Adrian will finally have a bit of break through and go 47.7-47.8

His 50 indicates that he should be capable of swimming those times

Ole 99
4 years 2 months ago

The men’s 4×100 Free Relay is on the second day of competion this year, putting it right after the semis of the men’s and women’s 100 Back. That may rule out Grevers for the night swim.

john26
4 years 2 months ago

Phelps has the 200free semis just before it as well… but the US will not have a shot with out him…

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