Roadmaps 2.0 – Mapping International Swim Stars: Women’s 200 Back

In our new series, Roadmaps – Mapping the Journey of US Swimming Stars, we will explore how modern-day Olympians climbed their way to the top, starting from as early as 8 years old all the way to their elite level today. In Roadmaps 2.0, we are expanding to international swim stars.

In 2011 and 2013, American teenager Missy Franklin stormed to back-to-back world 200 back titles, spaced by her 2012 Olympic title. After that, six years went by where a teenage woman had yet to top a major international 200 back final. That all changed at the 2019 World Championships, where 17-year-old American Regan Smith was crowned the world 200 back champion after breaking Franklin’s 2012 world record in the semi-finals. Yet what made the final all the more historic was 18-year-old Aussie Kaylee McKeown‘s finish, who touched out veterans Kylie Masse (Canada) and Margherita Panziera (Italy) for world runner-up, creating a teen 1-2 event sweep.

What could make the women’s 200 back more historic in 2021? What about an entire teen podium sweep plus a world record? In this installment of Roadmaps 2.0, we will explore a new limit the LCM women’s 200 back that could make headlines in 2021: hitting 1:59. How has this Roadmaps group progressed over the years past the 2:10 barrier to their career best? Do teens Smith and McKeown have a 1:59 in their sights based on their current progression? Read on to find out more.

2016-2021 Olympic Cycle: International Women’s 200 BK LCM

Rank Swimmer Country Time Meet
1 Regan Smith USA 2:03.35 2019 World Championships
2 Emily Seebohm AUS 2:05.68 2017 World Championships
3 Margherita Panziera ITA 2:05.72 2019 Italian Nationals
4 Kaylee McKeown AUS 2:05.83 2020 South Australia Championships
5 Katinka Hosszu HUN 2:05.85 2017 World Championships
6 Kylie Masse CAN 2:05.94 2019 Canadian Swimming Trials
7 Kathleen Baker USA 2:06.14 2018 Pan Pacific Championships
8 Taylor Ruck CAN 2:06.36 2018 Pro Swim Series – Atlanta

Who is “Most Improved”?

Another table talking about who broke 2:10 first would be boring, so instead we broke down who has been improving the most in the 200-meter back. A yearly time-drop average was calculated after selecting a five-year period when each swimmer broke (or neared) 2:10 to when they set their current career best. If a swimmer did not drop time one year, a zero was put in place of a time drop. Looking at the below table from afar, the teen/college swimmers have a higher time drop average than their adult counter-parts.

Since her first swim in the 200 back, Regan Smith has consistently dropped time every year (with the exception of 2020). Her world record (2:03.35) set at the 2019 World Championships chopped 2.66 seconds from her then-world junior record (2:06.01) from prelims, which gave Smith a yearly average time drop of 2.59 seconds. Kaylee McKeown hit the 2:10 barrier at 14 years old, however, her yearly time drop average has been 0.92 seconds.

Canadian Taylor Ruck, who is currently 19, and Kathleen Baker, now post-grad age (23), both have not broken their career bests in 3 years. Despite this, Ruck and Baker’s time drop averages were at least 1 second each year during their high school/NCAA careers. The averages of the four adult swimmers (24+) in the group (Margherita Panziera, Kylie Masse, Emily Seebohm, Katinka Hosszu) was -0.83 seconds each year. Notably, each of these swimmers had at least one year where they did not drop from their personal best.

Yearly Average Age Range
July 2020 Age
Regan Smith -2.59 13-17 18
Kaylee McKeown -0.92 14-18 19
Taylor Ruck -1.29 13-17 20
Kathleen Baker -1.02 16-20 23
Margherita Panziera -0.95 19-23 24
Kylie Masse -0.94 19-23 24
Emily Seebohm -0.65 21-25 28
Katinka Hosszu -0.77 23-27 31

Name
Regan Smith 2:13.72 2:11.41 2:07.19 2:06.43 2:03.35 Average
-2.31 -4.22 -0.76 -3.08 -2.59
Kaylee McKeown 2:09.60 2:08.98 2:06.76 2:06.35 2:05.83 Average
-0.62 -2.22 -0.31 -0.52 -0.92
Taylor Ruck 2:10.22 2:09.49 2:06.36 Average
-0.73 0 -3.13 -1.29
Kathleen Baker 2:10.23 2:09.36 2:06.38 2:06.14 Average
0 -0.87 -2.98 -0.24 -1.02
Margherita Panziera 2:09.54 2:09.43 2:06.18 2:05.72 Average
0 -0.09 -3.25 -0.46 -0.95
Kylie Masse 2:09.70 2:08.79 2:05.97 2:05.94 Average
-0.91 -2.82 0 -0.03 -0.94
Emily Seebohm 2:08.28 2:06.69 2:05.81 2:05.68 Average
-1.59 -0.88 0 -0.13 -0.65
Katinka Hosszu 2:08.93 2:06.18 2:06.03 2:05.85 Average
0 -2.75 -0.15 -0.18 -0.77

Who Will Swim 1:59 First?

At the 2011 Berlin World Cup, Missy Franklin swam a then-world record 2:00.03 in the short course meters pool. Three years later at the 2014 SCM World Championships, Katinka Hosszu became the first woman to break 2:00 in the SCM 200 back at 1:59.23. In theory, Regan Smith‘s 2019 world record of 2:03.35 may indicate a 1:59 could happen in the LCM pool in 3-4 years.

If we apply the adult group’s yearly time drop average (-0.83s) to 2020 teens Regan Smith, Kaylee McKeown, and Taylor Ruck, we could predict their progress into their early 20s. Since any of these swimmers could encounter a big swim or a tough hurdle, this theory is the next closest step to making a prediction before making hypothetical theories in their progress. Fast forwarding four years from now to the 2024 Olympics, 22-year-old Regan Smith, 23-year-old Kaylee McKeown, and 24-year-old Taylor Ruck would all have swum under the 2019 world record, nearly surpassing the 2:03-barrier.

At the current pace Smith is going at, especially with a 4-year Stanford career ahead of her, she could potentially hit 1:59 earlier than we think. Simply applying the 0.83-second time drop per year to Smith’s world record, she would hit 2:00.03 by 2024.

2020 Best 2021 2022 2023 2024
Age in 2024
Regan Smith 2:03.35 2:02.52 2:01.69 2:00.86 2:00.03 22
Kaylee McKeown 2:05.83 2:05.00 2:04.17 2:03.34 2:02.51 23
Taylor Ruck 2:06.36 2:05.53 2:04.70 2:03.87 2:03.04 24

Who’s Bubbling Up Right Now?

It would be rather plain to predict this outcome for the 2021 Olympic 200 back final: Regan Smith wins with a sub-2:00 world record while Kaylee McKeown and Taylor Ruck take silver and bronze with respective national records. However, the outcomes of the 2017 World final versus the 2019 World final morphed a new international women’s 200 back scene where US/Aussie teens are now dominating the world top 10 in 2020. Only 3 Olympians make up the top 10 times in the world alongside 6 teenagers (yes, six).

Kaylee McKeown currently leads the 2020 world rankings with her sub-2:06 January lifetime best swim of 2:05.83, followed by another sub-2:06 swim from No. 2 Regan Smith (2:05.94). Kathleen Baker, who won Olympic silver in the 100 back, and Marghertia Panziera, who just missed the 2019 World podium, are also in the top five times. Olympic medalists Taylor Ruck and Emily Seebohm also make the top 10 times in the 200 back while Kylie Masse, more of a 100 specialist, and Katinka Hosszu, who literally swims everything, are currently outside of the top 10.

Swimmer 2020 Season 2019 Worlds 2017 Worlds
Kaylee McKeown 1st 2nd 4th
Regan Smith 2nd 1st 8th
Kathleen Baker 3rd 9th 3rd
Margherita Panziera 4th 4th 14th
Taylor Ruck 7th 5th N/A
Emily Seebohm 8th N/A 1st
Kylie Masse 12th 3rd 5th
Katinka Hosszu 17th 8th 2nd

Hold Up… What About Minna Atherton?

Revisiting the 2016-2021 Olympic cycle, sitting right outside the top eight 200 back times is another Aussie teen, Minna Atherton. At the 2019 Australian World Championship Trials, Atherton took an upset win in the 100 back and second in the 200 back behind McKeown. At the 2019 World Championships, Atherton was unable to repeat her 2:06.82 lifetime best from Aussie Trials and placed 6th in the final. After her breakout swims in summer 2019, Atherton only began to shoot upwards when debuting with the ISL’s London Roar in fall 2019.

Women’s 200 BK LCM
Name Country 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Minna Atherton AUS 2:17.01 2:14.54 2:12.52 2:08.23 2:08.00 2:12.49 2:08.75 2:06.82

Once Atherton was with the Roar, she instantly became a successful backstroker for the squad. At ISL London (European Derbies), Atherton swam her second sub-2:00 SCM 200 back of her career with a 1:59.25, just missing Hosszu’s 2014 world record by 0.02s. Her current SCM best would translate to a 2:01.65, but of course she had 4 extra underwaters in the short pool. This season, she is 9th in the world at 2:08.59.

Single Age Progression: International Women’s 200 BK LCM (Ages 12-27)

Name Country 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Regan Smith USA 2:21.60 2:13.72 2:11.41 2:07.19 2:06.43 2:03.35 2:05.94
Emily Seebohm AUS 2:13.64 2:09.60 2:10.59 2:11.52 2:08.28 2:06.69 2:05.81 2:07.03 2:05.68 2:07.12 2:08.45
Margherita Panziera ITA 2:30.85 2:18.27 2:15.69 2:15.34 2:12.31 2:10.15 2:09.54 2:09.76 2:09.43 2:06.18 2:05.72
Kaylee McKeown AUS 2:21.94 2:12.04 2:09.60 2:08.98 2:06.76 2:06.35 2:05.83
Katinka Hosszu HUN 2:29.67 2:22.81 2:13.50 2:08.93 2:10.12 2:06.18 2:06.03 2:05.85
Kylie Masse CAN 2:33.70 2:27.45 2:26.49 2:20.93 2:17.06 2:09.70 2:08.79 2:05.97 2:05.98 2:05.94 2:10.17
Kathleen Baker USA 2:26.18 2:18.46 2:13.83 2:12.81 2:10.23 2:10.42 2:09.36 2:06.38 2:06.14 2:07.22 2:06.46
Taylor Ruck CAN 2:28.69 2:19.31 2:10.22 2:09.49 2:13.46 2:06.36 2:06.41 2:07.50

_________________________________________________________

2016-2021 Olympic Cycle: US Women’s 200 BK LCM

Rank

Swimmer World Rank Time Meet
1 Regan Smith 1 2:03.35 2019 World Championships
2 Kathleen Baker 7 2:06.14 2018 Pan Pacific Championships
3 Lisa Bratton 17 2:07.91 2019 World University Games
4 Isabelle Stadden 19 2:08.16 2020 Pro Swim Series – Greensboro
5 Alex Walsh 20 2:08.30 2019 Pan American Games
6 Hali Flickinger 22 2:08.36 2019 Atlanta Classic
7 Asia Seidt 23 2:08.56 2019 World University Games
8 Olivia Smoliga 24 2:08.58 2018 Summer US Nationals

 

Single Age Progression: US Women’s 200 BK LCM (Ages 12-25)

Name 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Regan Smith 2:21.60 2:13.72 2:11.41 2:07.19 2:06.43 2:03.35 2:06.16
Kathleen Baker 2:26.18 2:18.46 2:13.83 2:12.81 2:10.23 2:10.42 2:09.36 2:06.38 2:06.14 2:07.22 2:06.46
Lisa Bratton 2:45.34 2:28.49 2:16.81 2:13.57 2:11.54 2:10.61 2:09.31 2:08.20 2:08.78 2:08.37 2:07.91
Isabelle Stadden 2:43.78 2:24.24 2:17.94 2:08.37 2:08.24 2:08.16
Alex Walsh 2:21.46 2:12.49 2:10.55 2:10.71 2:09.36 2:10.03 2:08.30
Hali Flickinger 2:44.45 2:28.46 2:20.50 2:17.42 2:17.50 2:14.37 2:22.33 2:17.64 2:11.55 2:10.60 2:10.21 2:12.34 2:08.36 2:10.54
Asia Seidt 2:33.17 2:24.31 2:17.76 2:17.16 2:15.05 2:11.96 2:12.05 2:08.99 2:08.91 2:08.56 2:10.37
Olivia Smoliga 2:36.30 2:26.08 2:22.27 2:16.39 2:26.85 2:15.88 2:15.89 2:08.58 2:10.64

Single Age Progression: US Women’s 200 BK SCY (Ages 11-22)

Name 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Regan Smith 2:03.82 2:00.62 1:55.94 1:51.79 1:51.30 1:48.30 1:47.16
Kathleen Baker 2:16.20 2:01.48 1:59.07 1:56.22 1:54.31 1:54.30 1:50.74 1:48.33 1:48.27 1:47.30
Lisa Bratton 2:14.76 2:03.00 1:58.23 1:58.02 1:53.64 1:52.11 1:50.64 1:51.68 1:49.83 1:49.17
Isabelle Stadden 2:46.97 2:16.58 2:02.42 1:58.71 1:52.04 1:50.37 1:50.50
Alex Walsh 1:58.31 1:57.92 1:52.07 1:53.70 1:51.42 1:53.19
Hali Flickinger 2:09.73 2:03.43 1:58.92 1:57.64 1:58.19 1:55.82 1:51.68 1:50.95
Asia Seidt 2:13.43 2:03.25 1:58.67 1:55.77 1:55.19 1:55.14 1:53.79 1:49.63 1:49.24 1:48.65 1:48.86
Olivia Smoliga 2:25.96 2:10.59 2:02.09 1:56.81 2:05.23 2:01.47 2:03.93 2:02.50

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Sun Yangs Hammer
4 years ago

I guess if we’re linearly extrapolating….

Peaty breaks 55 in the next year
Dressel breaks 20 & 45 free and 48 fly
Michael Andrew smashes a 1:53 200 IM
Dean Farris goes Super Saiyan 4 for a 1:40 200 free Gold

Colt Simonelli
Reply to  Sun Yangs Hammer
4 years ago

Farris is going 1:36 easily.

Pvdh
Reply to  Sun Yangs Hammer
4 years ago

Yea Dean’s should be more like mastered ultra instinct sub 1:30 if you want to make it an actually outrageous prediction.

Colt Simonelli
Reply to  Pvdh
4 years ago

I meant unshaved and untapered of course.

wokebanana
Reply to  Sun Yangs Hammer
4 years ago

Exactly, all of them are totally never happening except for Dean’s 1:40.

Joe
4 years ago

It’s a huge ask for someone to drop the WR by 4+ seconds over 200. In this millenium:

-Peaty has dropped the 100 breast WR by 1.6 seconds
-Phelps dropped WR in 100 fly by 2 secs, 200 fly by 3.7 secs, 200 IM by 4 secs, 400 IM by 8 secs
-Piersol dropped WR in 100 back by 1.6 secs, 200 back by 4 secs

No woman has dropped WR times like this. If you discount supersuited times, you’re left with Peaty in the 100 breast, and Phelps in the 200 IM (going with his 2011 PB) as the only people to drop a WR in the ballpark of 4 seconds over 200m this millenium.

IMO… Read more »

Swim geek
Reply to  Joe
4 years ago

Meagher took the 200 fly down from 2:09 to 2:05.

Lbswim
Reply to  Swim geek
4 years ago

And Mary T famously said she didn’t swim it the best she could and probably had a 2:03 in her at that meet.

WOW
4 years ago

Oh so we’re just casually predicting women to go 1:59 in the 200 lcm backstroke now. Ok cool.

Troyy
Reply to  WOW
4 years ago

Maybe isolation is sending the author around the bend.

Casas 100 back gold in Tokyo
4 years ago

Sub-2 200 back means 3.3% faster than everyone else in history. Has this ever happened? Even Peaty’s 100 breast is only 2.4% faster than Shymanovich’s. Ledecky’s 800 free is 1.9% faster than Adlington’s.

Togger
Reply to  Casas 100 back gold in Tokyo
4 years ago

And Regan just does the same fundamental stroke as everyone else really well.

The way Peaty swims breastroke is unique, so his chances of a monster gap are higher.

Joe
Reply to  Casas 100 back gold in Tokyo
4 years ago

Whilse not officially a WR of course, isn’t Dressel’s 17.63 like 4% faster than anyone else?

Though I have no doubt that if prime Manadou or Leveaux swam yards the gap would be smaller.

Pvdh
Reply to  Joe
4 years ago

Second fastest is a close to prime cielo. I don’t think leveaux would close the gap. Manaudou yea I think could get close to sub 18. But also remember that Flo was peaked for his 20.26 while Dressel took it out at a meet he was likely not tapered for and had swum multiple races before.

JCOLLEN
Reply to  Pvdh
4 years ago

I think prime Leveaux could have been close to sub 18. He still holds the SCM 100 free WR, and if I remember correctly he has one of the two ever sub 20.00 SCM 50 splits.

Dee
4 years ago

I’ll be amazed if a woman swims a 1.59 200bk before 2050. It’s always better to look at the ‘pack’ than the freakishly talented leader. In 1991 Kristina Egerszegi broke the 200bk WR by over 2s aged 17. She was a generation ahead of her peers, the pack was so far behind that Egerszegi would still be competitive with todays ‘pack’. I think we see a similar situation with Smith. It will take 20+ years for the ‘pack’ to be in the 2.02/2.03s range, and I can’t quite fathom a woman swimming 1.59 when the rest of the world are still swimming 2.05+.

Justanotherfreestyler
4 years ago

I’d bet Baker rebounds to drop to a 2:05. She’s got an almost unrivaled work ethic and it seems some aging swimmers have been hitting best times after coming back from a setback.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Justanotherfreestyler
4 years ago

Kathleen Baker’s personal best in the women’s 200m backstroke is 2:06.14.

https://www.usaswimming.org/meet-the-team/national-team-bios?personid=eb8004d6-04a5-4eed-87fe-7047c5f0e2a6

Lane 8
4 years ago

I am by no means saying that this is impossible, but the prediction that Smith will be under 2 in 4 years is just insane and unrealistic. Things like stagnation, plateaus and struggles exist.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Lane 8
4 years ago

By way of comparison, Katie Ledecky’s best times in the 100m freestyle, 200m freestyle, 400m freestyle, 800m freestyle were posted in calendar year 2016.

https://www.usaswimming.org/meet-the-team/national-team-bios?personid=efc9df90-9a42-4929-b305-f94412a9e13c

Joe
Reply to  Lane 8
4 years ago

Especially for women, who on average see less time drop after the age of 18 than men.

At that level, consistently dropping nearly a second a year over 200 is insane.

Nswim
4 years ago

I’d really like to see Regan Smith try her hand at SCM swimming. She’s great at LC and SC so I think it would be a good transition

About Nick Pecoraro

Nick Pecoraro

Nick has had the passion for swimming since his first dive in the water in middle school, immediately falling for breaststroke. Nick had expanded to IM events in his late teens, helping foster a short, but memorable NCAA Div III swim experience at Calvin University. While working on his B.A. …

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