There’s one day left at the Incheon stop of the Swimming World Cup. At the end of the meet, prize money will be handed out and the overall winners of this stop for the women’s and men’s rankings will be crowned.
Kate Douglass and Leon Marchand won in Shanghai. It was a particularly close race on the women’s side, as Douglass beat Regan Smith by .1, winning with 59.10 points. Siobhan Haughey came third with 53.20 points.
Marchand had a bit more breathing room, winning with 58.30 points ahead of Noe Ponti’s 56.80. Qin Haiyang took third (56.70), .3 points ahead of Duncan Scott.
As a reminder, athletes earn points in two ways: through their place in the final and how fast they swim compared to the current world record in the event. These scores are added together to equal an athlete’s score for the event, and scores from the athlete’s three best events at the stop equal their overall score.
So, let’s take a look at who is in the mix to claim the Incheon crowns.
Women
Below are the rankings for the top five women in Incheon through two days of competition.
- Kate Douglass, United States – 59.2
- Regan Smith, United States – 56.7
- Mary-Sophie Harvey, Canada – 53.7
- Beata Nelson, United States – 44.3
- Brittanny Castelluzzo, Australia — 40.8
The gap between Douglass and Smith, the stop’s two world record-setters, looks large. Though both have set world records, Douglass is undefeated and has outscored Smith in performance points with 10.0, 9.7, and 9.5 across her three events.
But remember that only a swimmer’s three best events are counted, meaning that if Smith wins the 200 backstroke tomorrow–her only event–and scores higher than a 9.1 in performance points, her 200 fly performance won’t be included in her overall score. Smith is the favorite in the event and scored 9.6 performance points in Shanghai, so it looks likely that’s what is going to happen.
That will do a lot to close the gap between Douglass and Smith. Douglass also only swims one event, the 200 IM. She’s the favorite there and remains undefeated in the series. But Smith scored .2 more performance points in the 200 backstroke than Douglass did in the 200 IM in Shanghai.
Comparing their world record swims, it looks like Smith outscored Douglass by another .2 performance points there as well. So, as they are both the favorites to win their Day 3 event, it’s going to come down to how fast they swim to determine an overall winner in Incheon.
Men
Below are the rankings for the top five women in Incheon through two days of competition.
- Pieter Coetze, South Africa – 52.7
- Caspar Corbeau, Netherlands – 38.9
- Leon Marchand, France – 38.6
- Noe Ponti, Switzerland – 38.3
- Qin Haiyang, China/Ilya Shymanovich, NIA – 36.5
After two wins in Incheon (50/200 backstroke) Coetze holds a large lead heading into the final day of competition. But like the women’s race, it isn’t as straightforward as that. Scoring only the three best events adds an interesting element as the swimmers who race more than three events could have a score that’s included in today’s rankings thrown out tomorrow.
Another important factor is that Marchand, Qin, Caspar Corbeau, and Ilya Shymanovich all face each other in the 200 breaststroke tomorrow. Positioning will be critical for athletes hoping to win the standings in that race, as those points could be what determines the series winner.
That’s especially true for Corbeau, as Marchand is a strong favorite in the 400 IM, his other event on Day 3. Marchand is the only one of these five who is swimming a Day 3 double.
This isn’t to say that Coetze and Ponti won’t face competition in their events. Coetze will likely face Thomas Ceccon and Kacper Stokowski, and Ponti will likely duel with Nyls Korstanje again in the 50 fly, where Ponti is fresh off a world record.
Already, Marchand has earned 19.6 points from his 200 IM win (10 points for first plus 9.6 performance points) plus 19 points in the 100 IM (10 for a tie for first with Ponti and 9.0 for the time). In Shanghai, Marchand won the 400 IM on Day 3, scoring 9.3 performance points. Then, he finished fourth in the 200 breast, also scoring 9.3 performance points. That swim didn’t end up counting as one of his three best events in Shanghai.
Like Marchand and Ponti, Coetze is also in a position to win three events in Incheon, meaning neither Marchand nor Ponti have much wiggle room on Day 3. However, in their best events Marchand and Ponti can score more than the 9.3 performance points that Coetze earned via his 100 backstroke win in Shanghai. Essentially, it seems likely that both Marchand and Ponti can get closer to the world record in their Day 3 events than Coetze in the 100 backstroke, meaning their Day 3 ceiling is higher.
Speaking of wiggle room, Ponti was a no-show in the 200 IM on Day 2, so he won’t have the option to have an event discarded—he’ll only have raced three in Incheon.
One correction. Points aren’t based on the current world record. For SCM they are based on the world record as of 8/31/2024. As a result, the points Regan Smith earned were based on the old world record of 54.89, not the previous record of 54.56, resulting in a higher score.
Kate Douglass is overdue in the W 200 IM (SCM) especially after the 2022 Short Course World Championships.
I’d like to see Regan Smith come out on top.