2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Previews: The Men’s 400 Free and the Quest for The Olympic ‘A’ Cut

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Meet Central
• Broadcast Info
• SwimSwam’s Definitive Guide to Trials
• SwimSwam Preview Index

MEN’S 400 FREE — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 3:40.07 — Paul Biedermann, Germany (2009)
• American Record: 3:42.78 — Larsen Jensen (2008)
• U.S. Open Record: 3:43.53 — Larsen Jensen, United States (2008)
• World Junior Record: 3:44.32 — Peter Mitsin, Bulgaria (2023)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Ahmed Hafnaoui, Tunisia — 3:43.36
• 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion:  Kieran Smith — 3:44.86
• U.S. Olympic Trials Cut: 3:55.59
• 2024 Olympic Qualifying Time — 3:46.78

The men’s 400 freestyle at the 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials delivered one of the most memorable moments in the meet’s history. After winner Kieran Smith was the only one under the Olympic Qualifying Time, second-place finisher Jake Mitchell was awarded a time trial for a final attempt at getting under the ‘A’ cut.

Zane Grothe, who finished 11th in prelims, had already been under the OQT during the qualification window and would earn the Olympic spot if no one else who finished ahead of him went under the standard in the qualification window.

As the second-place finisher, Mitchell earned the first chance at the second spot. And, in the most electric time trial in history, he torched his lifetime best by over two seconds, swimming 3:45.86 to get under the OQT and earn his first Olympic berth.

It was a situation that we’d never seen before at U.S. Trials and now as the next Trials meet is rounding into view the question on everyone’s mind is “Will it happen again?”

The 400 freestyle has been the weakest event for the American men for years. The issues with the ‘A’ cut abated during the last few years as the standard was higher for World Championships, but now it’s back down at 3:46.78.

Six active American men have lifetime bests under that standard. More importantly for the Olympic qualification discussion, two have been faster during the qualification window which runs from March 1, 2023, to June 23, 2024.

Under the ‘A’ Cut In The Qualifying Period

The simplest way to avoid a repeat of the 2021 Trials is for the top two finishers at Trials to both be under the ‘A’ cut in the final. As the only two men faster than the ‘A’ cut in the qualifying window, Smith and David Johnston hold the advantage coming into Trials.

Amid the struggles to get two men qualified in this event, Smith has emerged as a consistent presence. He won this race at the 2021 Trials, then secured Olympic bronze in a lifetime best of 3:43.94, making him the 6th fastest U.S. performer.

David Johnson (photo: Jack Spitser)

Smith has not been under 3:45 since that swim but he’s a clear favorite to make the Olympic team in this event. In addition to qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics, he earned spots on both the 2022 and 2023 World Championship teams. His fastest time in the qualification window is 3:45.75 from Fukuoka. In 2023-24, he’s been as fast as 3:46.80—produced at the Budapest World Cup stop—which makes him the fastest American this season.

After intriguing SCM swims in 2022 (including breaking the 800 freestyle American record), Johnston broke through in long-course last season. He charged in the last 100 meters of this event at U.S. Nationals, passing Smith and Luke Hobson to earn the win in a lifetime best 3:45.75 and qualify for his first long-course Worlds team.

The swim put him on the map of American men’s distance swimming. Since then, he’s taken an Olympic redshirt from Texas and has been training with Schubert’s The Swim Team. He’s capable of swimming up to the 1500 freestyle but his results this season imply that this is the event where’s he’s put most of his focus.

He finished 12th at the 2024 Worlds with a 3:46.99 that ranks 2nd among Americans this season. Most recently, he clocked 3:48.06 at the Speedo Grand Challenge—a promising in-season swim for him.

Lifetime Bests Under the ‘A’ Cut

After swimming a lifetime best in his time trial, Mitchell took even more time off his best at the Games, putting up a 3:45.38 in prelims. He’s just .09 seconds off hitting the OQT during the qualification window; he swam 3:46.87 for 3rd behind Johnston and Smith at the 2023 U.S. Nationals.

Mitchell has a strong back half but he wasn’t able to match either Johnston or Smith’s closing speed last summer, which meant he did not have an individual swim at the 2023 Worlds. He also hasn’t been under 3:46 since the Games. And, after spending the season racing collegiately for Florida his season-best is a forgettable 3:52.87 from May’s Atlanta Classic.

Jake Mitchell (photo: Jack Spitser)

The season-best isn’t a reason to expect him to bring less than his best to Indianapolis. It’s the 3:46 block that may end up being the most important factor at Trials, especially if you’re expecting a breakthrough from someone lower on the psych sheet.

In 2021, Smith was the only man under 3:48. Nine swimmers have been under 3:48 in the qualifying period, so it would be a surprise if that held true this season.

In a race full of question marks, Carson Foster is among the biggest. Is he going to swim this race? In May, Foster said his lineup still wasn’t set. If he does swim, he’s capable of taking over the event. Foster popped a huge personal best of 3:45.29 in July 2022 at a Sectionals meet, making him the 10th fastest American all-time. He’d scratched the race at the 2022 U.S. Trials and this time would’ve won there.

Unlike the 2023 World Championships, the 400 IM and 400 free do not conflict at the Olympics or at the U.S. Trials. But Foster still may not want to risk the 400 freestyle one day before taking on Leon Marchand in the 400 IM.

It’s a long shot but if Foster does swim this, he immediately becomes a threat for the team.

There’s also Jake Magahey to keep an eye on. Over the course of his college career at UGA, Magahey has blossomed into one of the most consistently fast 500-yard freestylers. He owns the most sub-4:08 swims of anyone and has made the event podium for four straight years.

In 2022, Magahey took the step forward in the long-course pool that many were waiting for. He won the 2022 U.S. 400 free national title by using his usual back-half-focused race strategy. He dropped more than two seconds from his best with a 3:46.36. In that race he ran down Smith, Mitchell, Johnston, and Hobson, showing that he can match up with them in long course.

Magahey hasn’t raced the 400 freestyle this season as he’s been focused on the college season. He’s been 3:47.67 during the qualification period, which gives him a gap of .89 seconds to make up and hit the OQT. Though he still has that box to check, he should still be a major factor in the final.

Finally, Grothe holds one of the fastest personal bests in the field courtesy of his 3:44.43 from 2017. He’s hit the Olympic Trials cut but hasn’t raced this event since January 2023. Instead, he’s been focused on the 200 free.

The 3:47s

Behind the men who’ve been under the OQT before, there’s a handful of swimmers lurking with personal bests in the 3:47 range. They need to drop and if they do, they’ll find themselves in the thick of the action.

Perhaps the most dangerous is Aaron Shackell. Shackell started his freshman season at Cal, but by December had declared an Olympic redshirt season and returned home to train at Carmel (he’s since announced he’s transferring to Texas).

Shackell is not too far off the OQT as his PB is a 3:47.00 from the 2023 Junior Nationals. His season-best sits at 3:48.92 from Indianapolis Speedo Sectionals—the same meet he swam PBs in the 100/200 free.

Aaron Shackell (photo: Jack Spitser)

That may suggest that Shackell has zeroed in on the 200 freestyle as his best chance to make the Olympic team. But he’s only .22 seconds from the OQT in this event. And, it’s possible that once taper hits, he’ll drop in this event as well, which would immediately make him a threat to the top contenders.

Drew Kibler has had most of his senior international success come in the 200 freestyle. He’s changed his training base multiple times during the past Olympic quad but after he landed at ASU he quickly saw improvements in the 400 free. At the U.S. Open, Kibler lowered his personal best from 3:49.88 to 3:47.58.

He’s only been sub-3:50 once since then, but the time makes him hard to ignore here. Like Shackell, Kibler may choose to focus on the 100/200 free given the open relay spots. But he’s swum himself into an interesting position in this event as well and given himself the chance to show the freestyle range that was a hallmark of his NCAA career.

Ross Dant and Rex Maurer are two other swimmers in the field with PBs in the 3:47 range. Dant was the 3rd place finisher in 2021 and presumably would’ve been next up if Mitchell hadn’t hit the ‘A’ cut in his time trial. Since racing the 800 free at the 2023 Worlds, Dant’s only raced long-course once: at the ASU vs. NC State dual meet. There, he posted a 3:56.87, well off his 3:47.11 personal best from 2022. That swim coupled with his quiet NCAA season leaves a lot of questions about his form that won’t be answered until the meet starts. But, he also just missed his best last summer (3:47.87) and if he’s back on 3:47-range form he should feature in the final again.

In his freshman season at Stanford, Maurer had a promising midseason invitational but was way off his best at NCAAs. Since then, he’s entered the transfer portal and popped up at the Longhorn Elite Invite racing for Longhorn Aquatics, swimming 3:50.25. Maurer had an intriguing 2023 summer, posting a 3:47.63 personal best at the 2023 LEN U23 European Championships.

It’s a risk to make a training base change so close to Trials, but if it pays off Maurer could find himself in the final with a chance to make his first Olympic team.

Big Drops Incoming?

What’s an Olympic Trials without some surprises? And in an event as wide open as this one, there’s plenty of room for them. The 400 freestyle is waiting for a breakthrough from an American swimmer and it’s possible that we could get one from a swimmer sitting more than a second away from the OQT. The swimmers we’re circling to watch here are Hobson, Bobby Finke, Luke Whitlock, and Daniel Matheson. The latter three are distance specialists who could play spoiler here in their sprint event.

In the 2023 U.S. Nationals final, Hobson jetted out for the early lead. He paid for his opening speed on the back half of the race, fading to 7th. His lifetime best stands at 3:49.25 from the prelims, giving him a decent margin of time to drop. Since that meet, Hobson’s only raced this event at the U.S. Open (4:00.12). At his most recent meet, the Longhorn Elite Invite, Hobson skipped this race and did the 50/100/200 free. That could point to him choosing to focus on the shorter races–a choice many of the swimmers we expect in this field face. But Hobson’s drops in the 500 free suggests that he’s capable of faster than a 3:49.

The reigning Olympic 800 and 1500 freestyle champion, Finke has already written himself into the history books in the distance events. His speed in those races has many convinced that he’s got legit 400 free and 400 IMs in him. The 400 free is on Day 1 at Trials, followed by the 400 IM on Day 2 and the 800 free on Day 3. That would be a busy start to the meet for Finke so we expect him to opt for either the 400 free or the IM.

Bobby Finke (photo: Jack Spitser)

If he goes with the former, then he’s got some work to do with his 3:48.17 PB. That time is from 2018 and given the strides he’s made since then in the distance events, it’s reasonable to expect him to be faster. He’s already been within a second of that time this season, posting 3:49.01 in May at the Atlanta Classic.

Just behind him this season is the up-and-coming Luke Whitlock. Whitlock will join Finke in Gainesville this fall and has been on a heater this spring, posting PBs across multiple events. At the Indy May Cup, Whitlock swam a lifetime best 3:49.10 in the 400 free. He’d rounding into form at just the right time to upset the older swimmers and grab a spot on the Olympic team. It’s more likely to happen in his specialty distance events but don’t ignore him here either.

And finally, we’ve got Matheson. He’s made major improvements in multiple events since transferring from USC to ASU. Like Whitlock, he may have a better chance at the upset in a longer event, but he’s made big drops in the 400 free. At the 2023 TYR Pro Championships, he dropped 5.84 seconds and posted a 3:48.94. He’ll need to move in prelims but if he makes the final is a solid pick for an upset.

The Verdict

How you see this event playing out likely depends on whether you think two men will get under the ‘A’ cut. Smith’s consistency makes him a safe pick to win. Beyond him, there are pros and cons for each swimmer. Even taking the 2024 Worlds into consideration, Johnston’s had a quiet Olympic redshirt season but he’s hit the OQT. Mitchell and Magahey are still looking for the ‘A’ cut in the qualifying window but have been under before. Foster’s presence is questionable, as is Hobson’s.

That leaves the door open for someone new to step through–and we expect there to be a lot of different answers to that question.

SwimSwam Picks

Note: The Top 8 table was updated to reflect Jake Magahey‘s new season-best time and may be updated once psych sheets drop to reflect accurate entries. 

Dark Horse: Gabriel Jett — Jett was our dark horse for the 2023 U.S. Nationals and we’re sticking with him again. Part of that is due to Jett’s versatility–he’s also known for his butterfly prowess–the jury’s out on whether he races this. He skipped it at the 2023 Nationals, then dropped a 3:49.72 PB later in the summer at the TYR Pro Championships. It was a drop from his 3:52.16 personal best done a year earlier, showing his continued progress in the event. If he swims this event at Trials, it seems likely that he’d drop again, which would put him right in the mix for a spot in the final.