2024 Olympics Previews: Baby Let The Games Begin (Men’s 200 Free) (David’s Version)

2024 Paris Summer Olympic Games

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena – Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
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• Full Schedule
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By the Numbers: Men’s 200 Free

• World Record: 1:42.00 – Paul Biedermann, Germany (2009)
• World Junior Record: 1:42.97 – David Popovici, Romania (2022)
• Olympic Record: 1:42.96 – Michael Phelps, United States (2008)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: 1:44.22 – Tom Dean, Great Britain

I Don’t Know How It Gets Better Than This

David Popovici left his mark on the sport of swimming at just 17-years-old when he became the first male swimmer in 49 years to win both the 100 and 200 freestyle at the same World Championships in 2022. That same summer, Popovici took the world by storm again when he broke the world record in the 100 free and set a new world junior record in the 200 free with a time of 1:42.97. So, how could it get better than this? Well, by winning an Olympic gold medal of course.

David Popovici courtesy of LEN European Aquatics

The 19-year-old Romanian swimmer looks to be the favorite to take home the gold medal in the 200 free in Paris. Sitting comfortably in the top spot, Popovici’s entry time of 1:43.13 is a full second faster than the #2 seed heading into the Games. That time, which he just posted a month ago at the European Aquatics Championships, is not only his season best but also marks the 5th-fastest performance ever in the event.

Popovici’s recent performance in the 200 free offers a preview for what we might see in Paris, showing him in top form as he gears up for the Olympics. His race in June was the closest he has come to his best time of 1:42.97 since setting it back in 2022; given that it is only a few tenths off, we could see a new breakthrough in his time at the Olympic Games.

Popovici certainly seems to be the strongest contender for the victory in the 200 free, especially as his most recent time is also over a second faster than the winning time at the Tokyo Games. If he can throw down a performance similar to or even better than his most recent one, Popovici should be able to walk away with a gold medal.

You Know I Love A London Boy

Great Britain has consistently placed swimmers in the final of the men’s 200 free over the last couple Olympic cycles, most successfully in 2021 when Tom Dean became the Olympic champion while Duncan Scott claimed silver in the event. This summer the British team has two swimmers in the top five heading into competition, giving them a strong chance to continue their presence in the final and possibly even see a podium finish.

As the #3 seed overall, Matt Richards, who made his Olympic debut as a member of the gold-medal winning 4×200 free relay team in Tokyo, could be poised to make a splash and secure his first individual Olympic medal. Richards won the 200 free at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka with a best time of 1:44.30, and in April, he turned in a time of 1:44.69 at the British National Championships, which marks the 3rd-fastest time thus far in 2024.

Although Richards’ times tend to trend up and down, as he recently swam a time of 1:48.11 at the AP Race in London, the 21-year-old has consistently ranked as one of the fastest individuals in the world in the 200 free over the last few years with his season bests hovering in the 1:44 range. If Richards can turn in a top performance like he did in his races from World Championships or the British National Championships, then he could find himself on the podium.

The other representative of Great Britain contesting this event in Paris is Scott, who will certainly be looking to post a back-to-back podium finish after his silver medal in Tokyo. Scott heads into the Games as the #5 seed overall with a time of 1:44.75, which he just posted at the British National Championships in April. His personal best time is a 1:44.26, which he swam at the last

Duncan Scott courtesy of Patrick B. Kraemer / MAGICPBK

Olympics, showing his consistency over the years.

While Scott placed 6th at the World Championships in Doha this year, he has since turned in faster performances as the Olympics creep closer; his time from the British championships is tied for the 4th-fastest time so far in 2024, sitting just behind Richards.

Scott also posted a personal best at the last Olympics, showing his ability to improve and throw down a top performance in a high-stakes setting. If he can turn in another time closer to his lifetime best, or even faster, then Scott should be safely in the final and may even be able to secure a medal.

It’s Been A Long Time Coming

Germany’s Lukas Martens tied for 17th at the Tokyo Olympics with a time of 1:46.68. This time around, he is seeded as the runner-up behind Popovici and is one of the frontrunners to land on the podium. Martens threw down a personal best time of 1:44.14 at the German National Championships in April, marking the 2nd-fastest time in the 200 free this year. That performance also made him the 7th-fastest person of all time in the world and bumped him up to #16 on the ranking of all-time best performances.

In 2023, Martens led off the 4×200 free relay at World Championships with a time of 1:44.79, which was the fastest opening split in the field. Despite that swim, Martens closed out the year ranked #6 in the world behind several of the same competitors from Fukuoka, and at the 2024 World Championships, Martens took 4th behind Hwang Sun-woo, Luke Hobson and Danas Rapšys, all of whom he will race in Paris.

Martens recent performance makes him one of the biggest threats in Paris, but he has not always fared as well against the competitors he is about to face in the pool. While the personal best that he just threw down would have topped the results list in Doha by over half a second, it remains to be seen if he will be able to replicate that performance again to hold onto his edge and secure an Olympic medal.

South Korea’s Hwang Sun-woo, now a two-time Olympian at just 20-years-old, should be another top contender for a medal at the Olympics. Hwang’s personal best time of 1:44.40, posted at the Asian Games in September, makes him the #4 seed heading into the Games in addition to making him the 3rd-fastest swimmer in the world in 2023.

While Hwang’s performances since then have been marginally slower, he is still at the top of the global rankings in the 200 free thus far in 2024. At the World Championships in Doha, Hwang turned in a time of 1:44.75 to win the event, beating out the likes of Martens and Scott; his time also ties him at #4 in the global rankings with Scott. However, it is worth noting that at the 2023 championships, Hwang posted a faster time of 1:44.42 only to place 3rd behind Richards.

Hwang most recently competed in Barcelona, where he swam a time of 1:45.68 and was the runner-up behind Popovici. Provided he can drop back down to the low 1:44 range, he should be able to comfortably make the final, but it will certainly be a tough fight to claim one of the top spots.

Another contender for the final with potential to move up the rankings is Lithuania’s Danas Rapšys. The silver medalist at the World Championships in Doha, Rapšys has previously beaten several of the swimmers he will take on in Paris, and the season best time of 1:44.96 that he posted in the semifinals makes him the 7th-fastest swimmer in the world thus far in 2024.

Danas Rapšys courtesy of Fabio Cetti

While Rapšys’s lifetime best time of 1:44.38 puts him at #11 on the ranking of top all-time performers, he has not gotten back down to that time since 2019. At the Tokyo Games, Rapšys placed 3rd in the semifinals of the 200 free before finishing 8th in the final with a time of 1:45.78. That year, Rapšys was ranked 9th in the world in the event, only to drop off the ranking altogether in 2022.

Rapšys has slowly been climbing back up the global rankings since, landing at 16th in the world in 2023 before jumping to 7th; his performance in Doha was his fastest swim since setting his personal best in 2019.  Rapšys heads into the Games as the #8 seed overall with potential to climb the rankings in the final if he can manage to continue his upward trajectory.

I Wanna Be Your A-Team

Maximillian Giuliani will be making his Olympic debut for Australia in just a few short days. The 21-year-old made a name for himself when he became only the third Australian swimmer to break 1:45 in the 200 free, turning in a time of 1:44.79 as the leadoff for the 4×200 free relay at the Queensland Championships back in December.

At the Australian Swimming Trials, Giuliani won the 200 in a time of 1:45.83, punching his ticket to Paris. While his relay time puts him as the #6 seed overall heading into the Games, Giuliani has yet to crack the 1:45 barrier in an individual race. The closest he has come so far was at the World Aquatics World Cup in Budapest in 2023, where he posted a winning time of 1:45.42.

In order to break into the final at the Olympics, Giuliani will need to throw down a sub-1:45 against a stacked field of competitors. He has clearly proven that he is capable of doing so with his relay performance, but it remains to be seen if he will be able to replicate or even improve that swim when it comes down to it in the individual in Paris.

The American men did not place super high in this event at the last Olympics, with Kieran Smith finishing 6th, and it is questionable whether they will be able to change that this year.

Luke Hobson is the top-ranked U.S. representative in the 200, seeded 7th overall with his personal best time of 1:44.87 which he posted during a 5th-place finish at the 2023 World Championships. He won the event at the U.S. Olympic Trials in a time of 1:44.89, showing remarkable consistency between his swims.

At the 2024 World Championships, Hobson brought home a bronze medal with a time of 1:45.26, touching behind Hwang and Rapšys, both of whom he will face in Paris. Hobson’s consistency at high-level competitions is certainly an asset to him, but he will likely need to be either right on or even faster than his current best time to slide his way into the final.

Seeded just .02 behind Rapšys is Japanese Olympic veteran Katsuhiro Matsumoto. Matsumoto tied for 17th at the Tokyo Games, touching in a time of 1:46.69; the performance marked a sharp drop off after he posted a personal best time of 1:44.65 at the Japanese Swimming Championships a few months prior.

Katsuhiro Matsumoto (photo: Mike Lewis)

That time still stands as Matsumoto’s personal best; the fastest he has swam since then was a time of 1:44.98 at the Japanese Swimming Championships in 2023, the same time he is entered with heading into the Paris Games. Although that time puts him as the #9 seed overall, Matsumoto’s more recent performances have fallen off even more; he posted a time of 1:46.53 at the World Championships in Doha, and his season best is a time of 1:46.09.

The significant fluctuation and somewhat downward trend of his times does not bode well for his performance in Paris; Matsumoto will have to make a quick return to top form and turn in a much faster time than he has recently to break into the final.

Tell Them How I Hope They Shine

While not as highly ranked as the other competitors we’ve discussed, there are a handful who could still see an opportunity to shine and push for a spot in the final if they are in top form.

China’s Pan Zhanle will be looking to sneak into the final in the 200, having firmly established himself as one of the top freestylers in the world at just 19-years-old. Pan holds the world record in the 100 free (46.80) and is tied with Matsumoto at #15 on the world ranking of all-time top performers in the 200 free (1:44.65).

That time, which he posted at the Chinese National Championships in 2023, made him the 4th-fastest person in the world in 2023. Having newly broken onto the international scene in the 200 free, Pan has seen more fluctuations in his limited performances in the event; at the 2024 World Championships, he placed 10th with a time of 1:46.05, losing a spot in the final to many of the same people he will face off with in Paris.

Entered with a time of 1:45.28 from the Asian Games back in September, Pan is the #10 seed heading into the Olympics. If he can turn in a performance similar to his personal best at the Chinese championships, then he could have a shot at making the final, but Pan is far less seasoned in this event than most of his competitors.

The other American in the field, Chris Guiliano, made waves at the Olympic Trials when he became the first U.S. male in 36 years to qualify in the individual 50, 100 and 200 freestyle events for the same Olympics.

Chris Guiliano (photo: Jack Spitser)

Guiliano’s runner-up finish in the 200 saw him throw down a personal best time of 1:45.38, chopping over three seconds off of his time over the course of the meet. His eye-catching performance at Trials marked a huge breakthrough in his career, but it also raises doubts as to whether or not he can maintain the momentum and perform at the same caliber in Paris.

Guiliano is the #11 seed heading into the Olympics, but given that he saw such a tremendous drop just a few weeks ago (setting a new personal best every time he raced the 200), it is uncertain if he will be able to break into the final.

Hwang’s teammate Kim Woomin will be aiming to give South Korea two swimmers in the final of the 200. Another recent breakout star in the 200 free, Kim has only raced the event individually a handful of times in recent years; most of his experience with the 200 comes from relays. As a result, there have been few instances to see how he would fare against the competition he will see in Paris.

Kim’s personal best time of 1:45.68 from March puts him as the #12 seed heading into the Games, although he swam a 1:46.83 at the Australian Open Championships in April. Kim’s entry time also ties him with Pan for 14th on the ranking of top times in 2024, marking a significant jump from the year previously when his time did not even breach the top 25. Kim may be hard pressed to make the final, but if he can put together a strong swim and see a decent drop, he could end up being a contender to move up the rankings.

Another swimmer to keep an eye on is Thomas Neill, Australia’s second competitor in the 200 free. He posted a time of 1:46.02 at the Australia Swimming Trials but is seeded 13th with a time of 1:45.78. His personal best is a 1:45.74, which he set at the last Olympics when he placed 9th and just missed the final. Neill’s recent performances have been inching closer to his personal best, but he will need to push for a breakthrough in his time if he wants to make the final in Paris.

The Verdict

The 200 free is a close enough race that there are few guarantees, especially in a field like this where the swimmers are separated by such small margins. Even with that, Popovici looks to be the clear favorite to become the Olympic champion in this event. With a season best time that is over a second faster than both the #2 seed behind him and the winning time from the last Olympics, there is no question that he is the most likely to walk away with the gold medal.

Aside from winning an Olympic gold medal, Popovici could earn even more accolades if he has a good swim: his lifetime best time of 1:42.97 is only .01 off of Michael Phelps’ Olympic record of 1:42.96. Seeing as his best this season is a 1:43.13, it would not be improbable to see Popovici lower this record in Paris.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Rafael Miroslaw (Germany) – It took a time of 1:45.71 or better to qualify for the final at the Tokyo Olympics, and given that the top nine swimmers are all entered with times under 1:45, it seems safe to say that the time will only be faster this Olympics. Anyone going in with a time above 1:45 will be much harder pressed to make it into the final, especially those above the 1:45.71 mark, like Rafael Miroslaw. Miroslaw is a bit of an up-and-comer in the 200 free, having gone from being ranked 22nd in the world in 2023 to 18th in 2024. Although not the highest in the rankings, he notably placed 5th at the World Championships in Doha with a time of 1:45.84, just behind German teammate Martens. Miroslaw’s personal best time of 1:45.83 has him as the #15 seed heading into Paris, but if he can manage to see a breakthrough in his swim then there is certainly room to move upwards.