2024 M. NCAA Previews: No Marchand No Problem For ASU In 200 IM … But Is It Lasco’s Time?

2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 27-30, 2024
• IUPUI Natatorium, Indianapolis, Indiana
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MEN’S 200 IM

• U.S. Open Record: 1:36.34 — Leon Marchand, Arizona State (2023)
• American Record: 1:38.10 — Destin Lasco, California (2023)
• NCAA Record: 1:36.34 — Leon Marchand, Arizona State (2023)
• 2023 NCAA Champion: Leon Marchand, Arizona State – 1:36.34

After back-to-back record-breaking wins in the 200 IM, Leon Marchand is taking a different approach to Thursday at the 2024 Men’s NCAA Championships, opting to race the 500 freestyle instead after setting a new U.S. Open Record in the event at Pac-12s.

Despite that, Arizona State still owns the top two seeds in the 200 IM, and have the only men in the field sub-1:40 this season, in sophomores Hubert Kos and Owen McDonald.

SUN DEVIL DEVELOPMENT

Hubert Kos (photo: Jack Spitser)

Kos had an impressive freshman season, placing 3rd in the 200 back and 4th in the 400 IM at his first NCAAs, but has exploded as a sophomore, emerging as the fastest swimmer in history in the 200 back and becoming the seventh man to break 1:39 in the 200 IM despite having yet to race the biggest meet of the year.

The Hungarian was 11th in the 200 IM last season in a time of 1:41.61, but leveled up this season with a 1:39.26 clocking at the NC State Invite and then winning the Pac-12 title in 1:38.77.

At the conference championships, Kos held off McDonald (1:39.35) as the Sun Devils swept the podium with David Schlicht 3rd in 1:41.68.

McDonald’s swim marked a massive best time, having entered the meet with a PB of 1:41.60—a time he first hit at the 2023 Pac-12s and then matched at the NC State Invite—and then clocking 1:40.57 in the prelims before joining the sub-1:40 club in the final.

Kos had the fastest split on the first three 50s, but McDonald closed in 23.99 to make up some ground.

Split Comparison: Kos vs McDonald (Pac-12s)

Entering the NCAA Championships, between the two of them, the edge goes to Kos, especially given his history of winning the European title in the event, but McDonald’s trajectory is something to keep an eye on.  He did add from Pac-12s (1:41.60) to NCAAs (1:43.29) last season, however, placing 28th.

Schlicht has consistently been 1:41, which puts him firmly in the points and right on the edge of the ‘A’ final after he was 10th last year.

Arizona State has another potential scorer in sophomore Cale Martter, who has progressed from 1:44.38 at the end of last season to 1:42.28 at Pac-12s, landing him his first NCAA Championship berth.

CAN LASCO GET OVER THE HUMP?

Destin Lasco has numerous national titles to his name, from individual (two in the 200 back), relays (one in 2021, one in 2022) and overall team (2022 and 2023), but has always come up just shy in the 200 IM.

After finishing within a half-second of Shaine Casas and Hugo Gonzalez as a freshman in 2021, Lasco has run into Marchand the last two years. Both got faster from 2022 to 2023, but after Lasco was within 52 one-hundredths two years ago, the gap widened to 1.76 seconds last season as Marchand rewrote the record books in Minneapolis.

Lasco broke Caeleb Dressel‘s American Record in 1:38.10, a swim that would be regarded as historic if it wasn’t for Marchand as it ranks #2 all-time.

A senior at Cal, Lasco has a penchant for performing when it matters most, and thus, it’s hard not to pencil him in as the favorite, or at least a co-favorite alongside Kos, this season.

With Lasco opting not to race at Pac-12s and instead heading to the Westmont Pro Swim, we don’t have his showing there as a point of comparison from other seasons. We can, however, look at the Minnesota Invite, and his performance this past winter tells us he’ll be on point at NCAAs.

In his 2023 NCAA final swim, Lasco was electric on the last 50, closing in 23.31, and he may need a similar effort to take down Kos and win the title. Not only has Kos seen big improvements from his first to second seasons swimming in yards, but he also set best times across the board last season at NCAAs, so we shouldn’t expect him to be slower than his 1:38.7 from Pac-12s.

RETURNING ‘A’ FINALISTS

Other than Lasco, only the bottom half of last year’s championship heat will be back with Marchand changing events, Gonzalez graduating and Carson Foster turning pro.

Baylor Nelson (photo: Jack Spitser)

Stanford’s Ron Polonsky held off NC State’s Arsenio Bustos and Texas A&M’s Baylor Nelson in a close battle for 5th last season, while Texas’ Jake Foster returns to the field after initially opting to sit out of the campaign and compete professionally.

Among that group, the fastest swimmer this season is Bustos, who won the ACC title in 1:40.75, within striking distance of his personal best set in the 2023 NCAA prelims.

2023-24 NCAA Rankings, Men’s 200 IM

1. Hubert Kos (Arizona State), 1:38.77 – 2024 Pac-12s
2. Leon Marchand (Arizona State), 1:38.78 – 2024 Stanford vs ASU
3. Owen McDonald (Arizona State), 1:39.35 – 2024 Pac-12s
4. Destin Lasco (Cal), 1:40.16 – 2023 Minnesota Invite
5. Gal Cohen Groumi (Michigan), 1:40.48 – 2024 Big Tens
6. Arsenio Bustos (NC State), 1:40.75 – 2024 ACCs
7. Will Modglin (Texas), 1:41.01 – 2024 Big 12s
8. Ron Polonsky (Stanford), 1:41.25 – 2024 Pac-12s
9. Nate Germonprez (Texas), 1:41.29 – 2024 Big 12s
10. Baylor Nelson (Texas A&M), 1:41.33 – 2023 Art Adamson Invite

Polonsky cruised the prelims a little too much at Pac-12s, missing the ‘A’ final, but came back with a solid showing in the consolation heat to finish in 1:41.25. Now a junior, he was sub-1:40 as a freshman in 2022, and had the superior middle 100 (24.59/28.84) in last season’s final to hold off Bustos and Nelson.

Polonsky has been faster each of the past two seasons at Pac-12s compared to this year, so his stock drops a little, though the ‘A’ final is still in his sights given the departures of Marchand, Gonzalez and Carson Foster.

Nelson won the SEC title in 1:41.72 after going 1:41.33 earlier in the season. That conference time is almost a second slower than he was last year, though he added from SECs to NCAAs in 2023, so he might’ve simply altered his taper and put himself in an optimal spot for big NCAA swim.

Jake Foster is a bit more of an unknown, at least this season. He’s only raced the 200 IM once, going 1:45.46 in January, which makes him the 60th seed out of 63 entries. Now 23, he didn’t race at Big 12s, and he’s undoubtedly narrowed his focus to breaststroke with the Olympic Trials on the horizon. But he’s still a player with a 1:40.63 best time and a 1:41.03 swim in the NCAA final last year.

THE FRESHMAN FACTOR

Will Modglin and Nate Germonprez have picked up the slack left by the departures of some of Texas’ key swimmers this season, and the first-year duo could land the Longhorns some big points early in the meet in the 200 IM.

Will Modglin. Photo: Texas Athletics

Coming out of high school with a best time of 1:43.37, Modglin clocked 1:41.84 at the midseason Texas Invite and then outdueled Germonprez last month in the Big 12 final, clocking 1:41.01 to get under the ‘A’ cut and put himself in prime position for NCAAs.

Modglin has emerged as one of the fastest freshmen ever in the backstroke events, and while he leaned on his prowess in that discipline in his 200 IM swim at Big 12s, he was able to hold the breaststroker, Germonprez, at bay there, and then closed in 24.26 to get the job done.

Germonprez was the fastest 200 IMer in the boys’ high school class of 2023 at 1:42.82, a mark he lowered for the first time at Big 12s in 1:41.29.

With both swimmers hitting career-bests during their first season in Austin, coupled with Texas’ track record of having swimmers perform under the bright lights, Modglin and Germonprez could easily feature in the ‘A’ final.

The other first-year swimmer seeded in scoring position is Daniel Diehl, who joined NC State one semester early and adds some scoring depth to the Wolfpack attack in Indianapolis.

Similar to Germonprez, Diehl held a best time that stemmed from December 2022 (1:43.01) that was lowered for the first time in his conference championship debut, clocking 1:41.97 in the ACC final to place 4th.

Diehl was strong on the back half, but was trailing the top three finishers in his heat by a wide margin after the first 100. As an elite backstroker, his split of 25.79 tells us there’s more to give there.

OTHER CONTENDERS

The lone swimmer we’ve yet to touch on who is ranked in the event’s top 10 this season is Michigan’s Gal Cohen Groumi, who unloaded a best time of 1:40.48 to break the Big Ten Championship Record last month.

Groumi, who went 1:41.09 in 2022 and 1:41.20 last year, was off at NCAAs in 2023 and missed a second swim in 20th (1:42.63). He’s strong across the board, delivering 21.4/24.5/29.6/24.8 splits in his Big Ten swim. Anything similar will put him in the ‘A’ final.

Another name to watch for is Virginia Tech’s Carles Coll Marti, the runner-up to Bustos at ACCs who was left on the outside looking in last season, touching 9th in the prelims in 1:41.64, 12 one-hundredths shy of J. Foster.

Coll Marti didn’t deliver in the consolation final (1:42.56 for 15th overall), but has proven himself in the past, placing 4th at the 2022 NCAAs in 1:39.63. Predominantly a breaststroker, he can be dangerous if he’s close to the front of the race at the halfway mark.

The next group of swimmers all set personal best times over the last five or six weeks to earn their seeds, ranging from 12th to 17th: Virginia’s Tim Connery (1:41.86), BYU’s Jordan Tiffany (1:41.88), Indiana’s Luke Barr (1:42.00), Florida’s Joaquín González Piñero (1:42.07) and Stanford’s Rick Mihm (1:42.10).

All of the above will be in the hunt for a second swim, but also likely fully tapered for their conference meets which muddies the waters.

SWIMSWAM PICKS

Dark Horse: Will Grant, Harvard – Grant was a relay-only swimmer at NCAAs last year, but is coming off setting a monstrous best time of 1:42.83 that won him the 2024 Ivy League title. He’s had more of a backstroke focus in the past, but has added the medley event to his repertoire more seriously this year, and it’s paid off. If he can continue to improve in the event, a second swim is within reach.