2023-24 NCAA Men’s Power Rankings: Final Edition

As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order. SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential. These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion. If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in our comments section.

Braden Keith, Spencer Penland, Yanyan Li, Sophie Kaufman, and Anya Pelshaw contributed to this report.

Previous Ranks

• NCAA Men’s Power Rankings – Pre-Season Edition
• NCAA Men’s Power Rankings – November Edition
• NCAA Men’s Power Rankings – December Edition
• NCAA Men’s Power Rankings – January Edition

The Men’s NCAA Championships have arrived, and it’s time for everyone to get their final say on how the team standings will stack up come Saturday night in Indianapolis.

Despite plenty of changes in the specific writer ballots, the power rankings as a whole didn’t see too much movement.

Virginia Tech and Michigan moved up three spots, USC fell by the same amount, and Purdue broke into the top 25 (thanks to diving) while Miami (FL) fell out.

The top eight was nearly unanimous. From there, things get muddy. Let’s get into it.

Honorable Mentions: Pennsylvania Quakers, Miami Hurricanes, Minnesota Golden Gophers, LSU Tigers

Sophie on Penn: Matt Fallon‘s 200 breaststroke should be enough to push Penn into the top 25.

#25: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS + (PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

James: The Boilermakers have no qualified swimmers but a strong diving trio led by standout freshman Holden Higbie. Jordan Rzepka was 17th in two events last season and figures to score as well.

#24: SMU MUSTANGS -2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 22)

Braden: The Mustangs are still waiting for full-power Jack Hoagland to show up. If he does, SMU moves way up the rankings.

#23: BYU COUGARS +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 24)

Sophie: Jordan Tiffany alone puts BYU in the top 25.

#22: ARIZONA WILDCATS +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 23)

Sophie: Arizona is expected to earn all their points in the pool from the relays. They’ve got three in scoring position, which should be enough to get them back in the top 25.

#21: WISCONSIN BADGERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 21)

Sophie: Wisconsin’s sprint group turned heads at Big Tens. Last year they scored their first relay points since 2017. They’re taking steps forward and I expect that to be reflected in the standings and see them move up from 2023.

#20: FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES – (PREVIOUS RANK: 20)

James: The Seminole relays will be crucial to them hanging in the top 20, but they’ve also got some individual points in the pool from Peter Varjasi and a diver in the hunt to score.

#19: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 19)

James: Denis Petrashov carried the mail last year for Louisville in terms of individual points and they’ll need that again. Depth is lacking.

#18: USC TROJANS -3 (PREVIOUS RANK: 15)

Braden: The USC men were bad at Pac-12s. There’s no two ways around that. Was that by plan? Time will tell.

#17: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 18)

James: Charlie Hawke is in the hunt for the 200 free title in a wide-open field. He and Kaique Alves form a strong 1-2 punch for the Alabama free relays

.#16: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 16)

Braden: It’s a small Virginia roster going to NCAAs (only three individual swimmers), but they still have very good relays.

#15: NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH -2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 13)

James: After taking a big step into the top 20 last season, how high can the Irish go? The fact that they’re projected to surpass last season’s finish despite the loss of top scorer Jack Hoagland speaks volumes to the program’s development (which is buoyed by the addition of some key transfers).

#14: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES +3 (PREVIOUS RANK: 17) 

Spencer: This Michigan team may have come in 3rd at Big Tens but they also showed at that meet that they have quite a bit of scoring potential at NCAAs. Gal Cohen Groumi looks incredible and the breakout of sophomore Tyler Ray makes the Wolverine fly group very strong. Groumi and Ray are seeded to score in both fly events and freshman Colin Geer is 17th in the 200 fly, which makes Michigan arguably the strongest 200 fly group going into the meet. The Michigan women’s team swam well last week at their meet, so as long as the men can do the same, they should be right on the doorstep of a top 10 finish.

#13: AUBURN TIGERS -1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 12)

Sophie: Auburn earned their 2023 top-10 finish thanks to their relays. They only had one ‘A’ finalist last year. This year, they’re being pushed by teams like Notre Dame and Michigan, so maintaining their projected top-eight-scoring swims will be key.

#12: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 11)

Spencer: Ohio State only has four swims seeded to score. Now, they have the potential to put two guys on the podium in the mile, which would be huge, and they should score big on diving. As long as their relays show up, Ohio State should be able to get pretty close to a top-10 finish.

Braden: Ohio State’s swimmers are in a down year, but Lyle Yost and the Buckeye diving squad continue to be a huge hammer.

#11: VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES +3 (PREVIOUS RANK: 14)

James: I was critical of the Hokies early in the season but they turned it on at ACCs. Youssef Ramadan is on form and the relays look dangerous.

#10: TEXAS A&M AGGIES – (PREVIOUS RANK: 10)

Sophie: In the pool, the Aggies strengths are the IMs and breaststroke and they do those things very well. Their divers should also help push them up the standings.

#9: GEORGIA BULLDOGS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 9)

Sophie: Georgia’s got a lot going for them this year: they’ve got a wildly deep backstroke group and are projected to outscore their 26 relay points from last year. I’m also interested to see how Jake Magahey does with his new event line-up.

#8: TEXAS LONGHORNS -1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 7)

James: Texas’ long history of outperforming seed didn’t do them any favors in our final round of votes. How their top freshmen perform under the lights remains to be seen, but the diving corps has me edge them ahead of Stanford.

#7: STANFORD CARDINAL +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 8)

Braden: The Stanford men have a ton of room to move up, with nine swims seeded 17th-24th. Can they capitalize on those opportunities?

#6: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 6)

James: The unanimous pick for 6th. NC State is probably too far away to catch, but relays and Bryden Hattie‘s diving keep them firmly entrenched ahead of any teams behind them.

#5: NC STATE WOLFPACK -1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 4)

Spencer: NC State always finds a way to prove their one of the elite teams at the end of the season and I have no doubt they’ll do it once again. They have a very solid sprint group, which should make for great relays, and they have scoring potential in every swimming event except maybe the 100 breast, where they are admittedly a bit thin.

#4: INDIANA HOOSIERS +1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 5)

Spencer: This Indiana team is fantastic. Brendan Burns has a history of showing up big at NCAAs and he’ll be leading the Hoosiers one last time this week. They have great diving and fantastic breaststroke depth once again. This is an Indiana team that might not look amazing with Thursday’s events but once we get into the stroke events, along with 3m and platform diving, they should really take off.

Braden: The Indiana Hoosiers have an unreal diving crew again.

#3: FLORIDA GATORS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 3)

Sophie: Last year, the Gators lost 66.5 points from their seeds at NCAAs, while the five teams ahead of them all improved. This year’s squad is strong, they proved that at SECs, but I’ll be shocked if they win three relays again. They’re capable of being 3rd, but they need to carry their momentum from SECs over and show up in their individual events as well as the relays.

Spencer: There really isn’t anything not to like about Florida. They’re well-rounded and they’ll have great relays. Florida just doesn’t have quite the same amount of star power as Arizona State and Cal but they absolutely are capable of a top-three finish.

#2: CAL GOLDEN BEARS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 2)

Spencer: I think Cal might have lulled everyone into a false sense of security by not sending their ‘A’ team to Pac-12s. Make no mistake, the Golden Bears are the two-time defending champions and if there’s one thing we know about Dave Durden teams it’s that they show up for the big meet. The only question is whether it will be enough to overcome a surging Arizona State team that frankly may go down as one of the best teams ever.

Braden: Don’t get hustled by Cal being so far behind Florida in psych sheets scoring. They’re still the heavy favorites for 2nd place after five of their best swimmers skipped Pac-12s to race in long course instead.

#1: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 1)

Braden: With 12 out of 18 top seeds, Arizona State looks very heavy at the top. But on a near-weekly basis, they reveal new depth, and that’s what’s going to win them this NCAA title.

Spencer: Arizona State is just too hot right now to put them anywhere but #1. 12 of 18 top seeds and we don’t have any reason to think their top stars won’t be even faster than they were at Pac-12s. Even without great diving, it’s going to be hard to contend with the Sun Devils.

WRITER BALLOTS