2022 NCAA Division I Women: Day 3 Prelims Data Analysis

2022 NCAA Division I Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships

Virginia continues to swim even better than their projected scores, which is bad news for any team who thought they would dethrone the defending champions. The Cavs picked up points in Friday morning prelims in the 400 IM, 100 Fly, 200 free, and 100 breast and were only off by half a point in the backstroke.

Stanford had the biggest gains of the morning, thanks in no small part to a monster 200 free from Taylor Ruck to move from 19th on the psych sheet to 1st out of heats. In addition to that 20-point swing, the Cardinal added another 17 points, net. All told, they were up 44 in the 200 free but off 5 in the 400 IM and 3 in the 100 fly.

Florida (+17), Texas (+14.5), and North Carolina (+11) also outperformed by double digits.

Tennessee had a better day, with several big performances, including two third-place finishes from freshman Ellen Walshe in back-to-back events: the 400 IM and 100 fly. But the Vols had some big misses in the 200 free for a disappointing -33 off the psych sheet. Ohio State (-15.5), NC State (-15), Cal (-13), Missouri (-11.5), Texas A&M (-10), and Alabama (-10) had double-digit misses, as well.

Prelims Over/Under Psych Sheet – by event

  400 IM   100 Fly 200 Free 100 Breast 100 Back
Team Prelims +/- Psych Prelims +/- Psych Prelims +/- Psych Prelims +/- Psych Prelims +/- Psych
Virginia 48 2 30.5 14.5 9 1 20.5 3.5 29.5 -0.5
Stanford 15 -5 17 -3 44 44 0 32 1
NC State -7 12 -2 0 22 -9 20 3
Tennessee 20 -2 16 -6 -25 14 0 0
Alabama 0 7 -2 -2 9 -6 15 0
Texas 0 26 1 15 10 20 5 14 -1.5
Ohio St 9 0 4 -1 -11 13 -1 -2.5
Michigan 0 19 -4 0 1 -5 0
California 1 -13 0 18 1 0 11 -1
Southern Cal 0 0 14 -1 17 1 0
Kentucky 27 2 0 12 -2 0 -6
Louisville 5 5 14.5 0.5 0 0 0
Wisconsin 0 0 -4 0 12.5 5.5
Georgia 0 6 6 4 4 4.5 -4.5 0
Northwestern 0 -3.5 0 23 11 0
UNC 0 3 3 0 0 13 8
Arizona St 0 0 7 1 0 0
Penn 0 0 17 -3 0 0
Indiana 0 0 5 -3 2.5 2.5 0
Minnesota 6 -6 0 0 0 0
Virginia Tech 7 7 0 1 0 0 0
Missouri 0 -3.5 0 0 2 -8
Duke 0 0 -3 0 0
Texas A&M 0 0 6 -10 0 0
Florida 14 14 0 3 3 0 0
Florida St 0 0 0 -2 0
Auburn 0 0 0 0 0
Arkansas 0 0 0 2.5 -1.5 0
Arizona 0 0 0 0 6 2
UCLA 0 0 0 0 0
Yale 0 0 0 0 0
Harvard 3 3 0 0 0 0
San Diego St 0 0 0 6 6 0

Total Over/Under Psych (Swimming only)

Team Day 3 Prelims +/-
Stanford 37
Virginia 20.5
Florida 17
Texas 14.5
UNC 11
Northwestern 7.5
Virginia Tech 7
San Diego St 6
Louisville 5.5
Georgia 5.5
Harvard 3
Arizona 2
Wisconsin 1.5
Arizona St 1
USC 0
Auburn 0
UCLA 0
Yale 0
Indiana -0.5
Arkansas -1.5
Florida St -2
Penn -3
Duke -3
Kentucky -6
Minnesota -6
Michigan -9
Alabama -10
Texas A&M -10
Missouri -11.5
California -13
NC State -15
Ohio St -15.5
Tennessee -33

 

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Tomek
6 months ago

Texas added 2 up 1 down in 3 meter platform. Stanford has 1 up.

Ghost
6 months ago

Too confusing. Prefer ups and downs and total prediction numbers

About Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant is the mother of four daughters, all of whom swam in college. With an undergraduate degree from Princeton (where she was an all-Ivy tennis player) and an MBA from INSEAD, she worked for many years in the financial industry, both in France and the U.S. Anne is currently …

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